All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 2
Record: 28-6
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Montana Grizzlies
Seed: 15
Record: 26-8
Conference: Big Sky
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Location: Des Moines, IA
Region: West
Channel: TNT
Michigan hopes for yet another Final Four run, but unlike the last 4 visits they don't want to finish #2. They start in the same place as last year, though: a first-round game against the Montana Grizzlies.
Michigan Montana
Power Ratings
Strength: #6 Strength: #131
Pomeroy: #5 Pomeroy: #137
Offense: #18 Offense: #115
Defense: #2 Defense: #161
BPI: #6 BPI: #120
LRMC: #6 LRMC: #113
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #318 Tempo: #225
Schedule Strength: #18 Schedule Strength: #265
Consistency: #280 Consistency: #220
Consist. Modifier: #10 Consist. Modifier: #132
2nd half season: #8 2nd half season: #136
Last 6 games: #2 Last 6 games: #204
Road Strength: #5 Road Strength: #117
Injury Modifier: #7 Injury Modifier: #153
Clearly the Wolverines are more fearsome than the Grizzlies, as their single-digit power rankings outgun Montana's triple-digit consensus. The Grizzlies are fairly decent on offense but they'll be going up against the #2 defense in the country. And on the other side of the court Michigan is still a solid top 25 offense.
The game tempo should be pretty slow as Michigan enforces that on defense and doesn't exactly hurry on offense. The Wolverines do lack consistency, but that's something to consider farther down the line, not against a 15-seed. Michigan's recent play has been stellar, while Montana had a few bad games before winning their last 4 solidly.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): @(6)Villanova+27, (1)North Carolina+17, (3)Purdue+19, (10)Minnesota+2, (11)Ohio St.+16, (5)Wisconsin+9, (6)Maryland+13, @(10)Minnesota+9, @(6)Maryland+7, =(10)Iowa+21, =(10)Minnesota+27
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(5)Wisconsin-10, @(10)Iowa-15, (2)Michigan St.-7, @(2)Michigan St.-12, =(2)Michigan St.-5
- Other losses (1): @Penn St.-6
Overview: Michigan placed 2nd to Villanova in last year's tournament, and in game three they let it be known that they were going to be a team to be reckoned with as they destroyed the defending champs, 73-46 on Villanova's home court. They beat 1-seed North Carolina and 3-seed Purdue back-to-back en route to a 17-0 start. They slipped up a bit after that, falling to Wisconsin and Iowa, and then Penn State, but they garnered a slew of tourney-team wins in the 8-bid Big Ten. The one they couldn't beat was rival Michigan State, who beat them in Ann Arbot (77-70), East Lansing (75-63), and in Chicago (65-60). Despite the losses to MSU, the flow of Michigan's season looks a lot like the 2013 national runner-up team that lost to Louisville in the finals: a long win streak covering half the season, then 6 losses the rest of the way.
On defense, the Wolverines lock down every shot; they are good against threes, twos, and foes don't get to the line very often. Mostly teams try to move the ball around before throwing up a desperation three. On offense the Wolverines shoot reasonbly well, but don't rebound or get to the line often; their success comes from their extremely low turnover rate. Ignas Brazdeikis (15.1 ppg) leads three double digit scorers. One concern for Michigan's goal of a deep tourney run is that they are 4th from last in bench minutes; it helps to have a deeper team come tournament time, and that could catch up to them sooner or later.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): (14)Georgia St.+7, (16)North Dakota St.+7
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(13)UC Irvine-9
- Other losses (7): =Georgia Southern-3, @Creighton-26, @Arizona-19, Portland St.-OT, @Eastern Washington-7, Northern Colorado-2, @Portland St.-12
Overview: Forward Jamar Akoh was the team's leading scorer and rebounder before being lost to injury in February; since then (game 22) the team mostly continued its winning ways, but only in their last four games did they thrive without him. Montana shoots the ball very well (#6 in the nation). Three guards average in double figures, with Ahmaad Rorie (15.1) and Sayeed Pridgett (15.0) leading the way.
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Game Analysis: Look for a very slow tempo game, something that could manage to keep the game closer than it should be. Montana's great shooting will be challenged by Michigan's tough-as-nails defense; we wager that Michigan's defense comes out ahead in the end.
The main thing Michigan has to deal with is overconfidence. They got to the championship game last year and they are even better this year, so naturally they will cruise to the Sweet Sixteen, then the Final Four, and beyond, right? If Michigan overlooks the first game, well, that's how 8 2-seeds have lost to 15-seeds over the years. A team like Montana just has to start making its shots and then its too late; you wake up the next morning wondering how it happened.
Conversely, a team that plays in a very weak division is usually in for a world of hurt when playing a top ten team, especially when facing the nation's #2 defense. Montana actually did pretty well last year, losing just 61-47 to the Wolverines.
Vegas Line:
Michigan by 15 1/2
Power rating: spread
Michigan by 18.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Michigan: 87.3%
Montana: 12.7%
The Strength power rating gives Michigan a slightly larger edge than Vegas, with an 87% chance to win; that's lower than the 94% historical odds for a 2-seed, but our power rating never quite goes as high as the historical returns for a 1- or 2-seed.
Bottom line: Michigan is a prime contender for the Final Four and it's doubtful Montana gets in their way, as the Grizzlies haven't faced a top 100 team since December.
Final prediction: Michigan 74, Montana 57
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
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