All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 1
Record: 27-6
Conference: ACC
vs.
Iona Gaels
Seed: 16
Record: 17-15
Conference: Metro Atlantic
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Location: Columbus, OH
Region: Midwest
Channel: TNT
The last one-seed game of the first round. Whew! I'm tired just thinking of this one.
North Carolina Iona
Power Ratings
Strength: #5 Strength: #221
Pomeroy: #6 Pomeroy: #197
Offense: #7 Offense: #134
Defense: #10 Defense: #275
BPI: #5 BPI: #179
LRMC: #5 LRMC: #185
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #5 Tempo: #45
Schedule Strength: #1 Schedule Strength: #247
Consistency: #300 Consistency: #50
Consist. Modifier: #5 Consist. Modifier: #196
2nd half season: #3 2nd half season: #187
Last 6 games: #3 Last 6 games: #110
Road Strength: #3 Road Strength: #212
Injury Modifier: #5 Injury Modifier: #187
North Carolina is the team that probably shouldn't have been a 1-seed. After all, if Duke is the overall #1 because they took Zion's injury into account, doesn't that reduce the value of UNC's two wins over Duke? In any case, they don't rank in the top four in any of the power ratings (they're a lowly #5, pretty much). The Tar Heels are top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency while playing at a breakneck pace against the hardest schedule in the nation. It's not surprising that they're a bit inconsistent. The Tar Heels really came on strong in the 2nd half of the season and played solid down the line, even in losing to Duke in the ACC tournament.
Iona also likes to run, so this should be a barn burner.
Season overview: North Carolina
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): @(7)Wofford+11, (1)Gonzaga+13, (4)Virginia Tech+21, @(7)Louisville+10, @(1)Duke+16, (4)Florida St.+18, (8)Syracuse+8, (1)Duke+9, =(7)Louisville+13
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(2)Michigan-17, =(2)Kentucky-8, (7)Louisville-21, (1)Virginia-8, =(1)Duke-1
- Other losses (1): =Texas-3
Overview: North Carolina kicked off with a win over eventual 7-seed Wofford, but lost to Texas and then lost big to 2-seed Michigan before rebounding with a neutral court defeat of 1-seed Gonzaga, before losing to 2-seed Kentucky! Is there any question the Tar Heels played the toughest schedule? We haven't even gotten to the ACC, where they were dumped by Louisville on their own home court (game 16) and later returned the favor (game 21). They couldn't beat 1-seed Virginia at home but they upset Duke in Durham due to Zion's shoe malfunction. They beat the Zion-less Duke again a few weeks later at home, but Duke eeked out a 1-point win on the third try with Zion in the lineup. All told UNC played every other 1-seed, going 3-2, and 0-2 against 2-seeds.
North Carolina plays the basketball version of Fast and Furious, passing the ball downcourt in seconds and taking quick shots. They shoot pretty well, but the key to their success might be solid offensive and defensive rebounding. They also have some talented 3-point shooters. Coby White (16.3 ppg) was getting a lot of attention as someone who could make it (and take it) from anywhere, but he's not nearly their best 3-point shooter; that would be Cameron Johnson (16.9 ppg, 46.5% on threes). Luke Maye adds 14.7 points and 10.5 rebounds.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(8)VCU-29, @(14)Yale-15
- Other losses (13): @New Mexico-7, =Long Beach St.-1, @Providence-12, @Ohio-24, =Columbia-3, =Princeton-4, Holy Cross-7, @Niagara-5, @Monmouth-2, @Fairfield-12, @Marist-4, Siena-2, Quinnipiac-1
Overview: Iona started the year 2-9. During that time they played, and lost to, the only tournament foes they met during the regular season. 8-seed VCU beat them by 29, while 14-seed Yale only outscored them by 15. They started to do better, going 5-6 in mid-season, then all of a sudden decided to win their last 7 conference games, and win 3 more to win the conference tournament and garner a Big Dance bid.
Iona likes to go uptempo on offense—not like UNC, but normal uptempo. That's probably why they have four players averaging in double digits, led by EJ Crawford's 17.9..
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Game Analysis: Not much to say about this one. Look for a very fast game, with North Carolina pulling away for the win.
Vegas Line:
North Carolina by 23 1/2
Power rating: spread
North Carolina by 27.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
N Carolina: 96.5%
Iona: 3.5%
Iona probably has the highest odds for an upset of any of the 16-seeds at 3.5% The historical odds are of course, 1 in 136 or 0.74%.
Bottom line: We'll make this the "close call" game, with the Tar Heels winning by a mere 16 points.
Final prediction: North Carolina 99, Iona 83
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
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