All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 30-6
Conference: SEC
vs.
Auburn Tigers
Seed: 5
Record: 29-9
Conference: SEC
Date: Sunday, March 31
Time: 2:20 pm Eastern
Location: Kansas City, MO
Region: Midwest
Channel: CBS
It's an all-SEC final in the Midwest region to decide who goes to the Final Four: Auburn for the first time ever, or Kentucky for the 18th time.
Kentucky Auburn
Power Ratings
Strength: #8 Strength: #11
Pomeroy: #7 Pomeroy: #11
Offense: #12 Offense: #6
Defense: #8 Defense: #43
BPI: #6 BPI: #12
LRMC: #9* LRMC: #16*
*from Selection Sunday
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #284 Tempo: #153
Consistency: #315 Consistency: #309
2nd half season: #3 2nd half season: #11
Last 3 games: #7 Last 3 games: #3
These two Elite Eight teams are both borderline top 8 teams at best for the full season; Kentucky barely makes that grade, while Auburn falls short. But as we can see from their recent performance rankings, teams only get here when they've been playing well. Kentucky is #3 for the 2nd half of the season, and Auburn is #3 in performance in the tournament so far. Auburn's high rank comes due to their last 2 great games, and despite their first-round squeaker.
Kentucky is ahead, but not by much, in all the power ratings, and while Auburn has a slightly better offense, Kentucky's D is far better than Auburn's. Comparing them in a relevant way, Auburn has a very slight edge vs. Kentucky's D while the Wildcats on offense have a big advantage over Auburn's D. Tempo-wise, Kentucky is moderate on both offense and defense, while Auburn is fast on offense (#67) and slow on defense (#334).
Neither team has been consistent during the season, but both have become a lot more consistent over the last month.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =(1)North Carolina+8, @(7)Louisville+13, @(5)Auburn+2, (5)Mississippi St.+21, (4)Kansas+8, @(10)Florida+11, @(5)Mississippi St.+4, (2)Tennessee+17, (5)Auburn+27, @(8)Mississippi+4, (10)Florida+9, =(15)Abilene Christian+35, =(7)Wofford+6, =(3)Houston+4
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): =(1)North Carolina+8, @(5)Auburn+2, (2)Tennessee+17, (5)Auburn+27, =(3)Houston+4
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Duke-34, =(10)Seton Hall-OT, (3)LSU-2, @(2)Tennessee-19, =(2)Tennessee-4
- Other losses (1): @Alabama-2
Overview: Kentucky got off to a very slow start, losing big to Duke and having some tepid performances against low-rated opponents. They fell to Seton Hall in overtime and despite a big win over 1-seed North Carolina they were 10-3 after falling to Alabama. A few games later things picked up and they completed a 10-game run that included wins over 5-seed Auburn, 5-seed Mississippi State (twice), and 4-seed Kansas. They beat 2-seed Tennessee by 17 at home, but following their 2nd win over Auburn in game 27 they slumped a bit, losing to the Volunteers by 19 on the road, and falling in the rubber match in the SEC tournament in neutral territory. They went 4-4 against the Sweet Sixteen, now 5-4—with two wins over Auburn, home and away.
Kentucky is in the top ten in offensive rebounding percentage, and they defend the 2-point shot among the best, too. Four Wildcats average in double figures, but leading scorer PJ Washington (14.8, 7.5 rebounds) did not play in the Kentucky's first tournament game. Nevertheless they blasted through Abilene 79-44 behind Keldon Johnson's 25 points after leading 39-13 at the half. The Wildcats handled Wofford 62-56 by holding Fletcher Magee to 8 points on 0-for-12 3-point shooting; Reid Travis led with 14. Kentucky survived a late push to beat Houston 62-58 on Tyler Herro's 19 points, and Washington returned to add 16.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (9)Washington+22, (12)Murray St.+5, (10)Florida+14, (5)Mississippi St.+5, (2)Tennessee+4, =(10)Florida+3, =(2)Tennessee+20, =(12)New Mexico St.+1, =(4)Kansas+14, =(2)North Carolina+17
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Tennessee+20, =(2)North Carolina+17
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(1)Duke-6, @(8)Mississippi-15, (2)Kentucky-2, @(5)Mississippi St.-8, @(3)LSU-5, (8)Mississippi-5, @(2)Kentucky-27
- Other losses (2): @North Carolina St.-7, @South Carolina-3
Overview: Auburn ended an up and down year with an 8-game winning streak punctuated by an emphatic 20-point win over Tennessee, the 2nd time in March that they beat the Volunteers. Those were the clear highlights of their 7 wins over tourney teams; they lost games vs. other highly seeded teams Duke, Kentucky (x2) and LSU; all of those teams reached the Sweet Sixteen.
Auburn's defense isn't on the level of its offense but they do a few things very well: block shots (#5) and get turnovers (#1 in nation, due to #1 ranking in steals). On offense Auburn shoots a lot of threes, and they're good enough at it to compensate for getting their shots blocked a lot and not getting to the line all that often. They also rebound pretty well. Three Tigers average in double figures led by Bryce Brown's 15.8. While last year's team had a very short roster, especially come tournament time, this year ten players average over 10 minutes per game. Jared Harper scored 17 and Auburn needed every one of them in their 79-78 win over New Mexico State; they needed some help from the Aggies, too, missing free throws at the end that could have won or tied the game. Brown had 25 as they cruised to beat Kansas 89-75. Auburn stayed with UNC for the first half and pulled away on a barrage of threes to win 97-80 as Chuma Okeke led with 20 points and 11 rebounds—even after being hurt midway through the 2nd half.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: It's likely that Auburn will set the pace, running or going to half-court as necessary like they did against North Carolina; Kentucky is more malleable and will play at the pace of the game. Although, when Kentucky enforced a slower pace in their 2nd meeting, they won big at home over the Tigers.
Neither team has been consistent. For Kentucky this is more about their early trouble coming together as a team and their resultant improvement in the 2nd half of the season, while Auburn is fairly erratic depending on whether they make their 3's. Lately, though—during their long win streak—Auburn has been consistent with occasional upward spikes, which is pretty much what you want.
The teams have already met twice this year and both times Kentucky won. The first win—82-80 at Auburn—came during Kentucky's best stretch of the season, a 10-game win streak when the Wildcats played their very best. The 2nd win—80-53 at home—was Kentucky's best performance of the season. For Auburn, both losses came during a stretch where they went 4-6. So Kentucky was playing their best at the time, Auburn at their worst. It was also Auburn's last loss of the season to date.
There's no secret to Kentucky's wins in both games—they shot better than Auburn and outrebounded them, especially in the blowout win. The Wildcats shot 54% both times and scored 82 and 80 points; Auburn shot 46% and 33% and scored 80 and 53 points.
Injuries: Entering the tournament Auburn was at full strength and Kentucky was without their leading scorer, PJ Washington. Now, Washington is back while Auburn will be without starter Chuma Okeke. Washington averaged 18.5 points in the teams' two meetings, so having him back is crucial. Meanwhile Okeke added an average of 12.5 for the Tigers in those games. It's not quite a 31-point swing but the situation is very different from the one at Selection Sunday.
Vegas Line:
Kentucky by 4
Power rating: spread
Kentucky by 1.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kentucky: 55.1%
Auburn: 44.9%
Kentucky is a solid favorite by Vegas, a few points ahead of the Strength estimate. This is probably due to Kentucky's better play recently, the results of the teams' previous meetings, and the favorable injury situation to Kentucky. Historically a 2-seed beats a 5-seed 100% of the time—though there have only ever been 4 meetings. So while Auburn would be bucking a trend, it's hardly like a 16-seed beating a 1-seed.
Bottom line: A lot of things point to Kentucky winning this game. The first two meetings didn't go Auburn's way, and Kentucky is back at full strength while Auburn has lost a key starter. Clearly at this point Kentucky should be the smart pick. But we picked Auburn to get to the Final Four initially, so let's justify an upset: by ignoring the teams' previous meetings, and focusing on how both teams have played since that meeting. In those games, Auburn is a playing a couple points better than the Wildcats. Note that this also requires ignoring Auburn's injury situation and pretending that they can keep making their threes at an incredible rate, but picking upsets always requires some suspension of disbelief.
Final prediction: Auburn 73, Kentucky 71
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments