SportsRatings: College Basketball: March 2018

2018 NCAA Tournament Final Four Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Villanova vs. (1) Kansas

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Villanova Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 34-4
Conference: Big East

vs.

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 31-7
Conference: Big 12

Date: Saturday, March 31
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Location: San Antonio, TX
Channel: TBS

After all the upsets on the South/West side of the bracket, on the East/Midwest side it comes down to two 1-seeds.

Villanova Kansas

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1     Strength:          #6
Pomeroy:           #1             Pomeroy:           #8
   Offense: #1                     Offense: #5
   Defense: #13                     Defense: #42
BPI:               #1             BPI:               #7
LRMC:    #1             LRMC:              #9

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #210            Consistency:       #319
Schedule Strength: #10             Schedule Strength: #2
Tempo (Pomeroy): #160            Tempo: #150
AP Final Poll:     #2             AP Final Poll:     #4
AP Pre-season:     #6             AP Pre-season:     #4

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:    #1       Model Rank:    #7

Villanova's defense began the tournament at #22 and has improved to #13 in efficiency in just the last four games, making them a much better match for the Kansas offense than they would have been in mid-March. Kansas' profile looks almost the opposite of Texas Tech's—the last team Villanova beat—with a very strong offense and weak defense. That defense is going to be put to the test by Villanova; the Jayhawks' best bet might be to put all their eggs into their offensive "basket" and not burn themselves out defending. With a good performance—and they are pretty volatile—the Jayhawks could make the final.

Season overview: Villanova

Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =(3)Tennessee+9, (16)Penn+28, =(4)Gonzaga+16, (1)Xavier+24, (10)Providence+20, (8)Creighton+20, (8)Seton Hall+16, (10)Butler+11, @(1)Xavier+16, @(8)Seton Hall+OT, =(10)Butler+19, =(10)Providence+OT, =(16)Radford+26, =(9)Alabama+23, =(5)West Virginia+12, =(3)Texas Tech+12
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(4)Gonzaga+16, =(5)West Virginia+12, =(3)Texas Tech+12
Wins vs. Final Four (0): none
Losses to tournament teams (3): @(10)Butler-8, @(10)Providence-5, @(8)Creighton-OT
Other losses (1): St. John's-4

Overview: Villanova has actually lost to some pretty pedestrian teams—10-seeds Butler and Providence, and 8-seed Creighton, as well as St. John's when the Red Storm were in Red Hulk mode. But they also beat 1-seed Xavier twice, 3-seed Tennessee, and 4-seed Gonzaga, and there's no arguing with 30-4 when your SOS is #11. The key to Villanova is their offense; we've seen loads of teams over the years with 5 players averaging double figures, but Villanova has 6, with Jalen Brunson at 19.4 ppg and Mikal Bridges at 18.0. Yes, they're dependent on shooting the three—even moreso than the last two years—which leads to some inconsistency in play, but they shoot it far better than in their championship year.

That held true against Radford, as six Wildcats scored in double figures, making 14 of 27 threes. Against Alabama, they made 17 of 41, not nearly as good but still 41% as Bridges had 23 points. Brunson dropped 27 on West Virgina as the Wildcats made 54% of their threes. They only made 4 of 24 threes (17%) against Texas Tech but that was enough; Brunson had 15 points.

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Season overview: Kansas

Wins vs. tournament teams (21): =(5)Kentucky+4, (12)South Dakota St.+34, (16)Texas Southern+43, =(11)Syracuse+16, @(10)Texas+6, @(6)TCU+4, (9)Kansas St.+1, @(5)West Virginia+5, (7)Texas A&M+11, @(9)Kansas St.+14, (6)TCU+7, (5)West Virginia+8, (10)Oklahoma+30, @(3)Texas Tech+2, (10)Texas+10, =(9)Kansas St.+16, =(5)West Virginia+11, (16)Penn+16, =(8)Seton Hall+4, =(5)Clemson+4, =(2)Duke+OT
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (12): =(5)Kentucky+4, =(11)Syracuse+16, (9)Kansas St.+1, @(5)West Virginia+5, (7)Texas A&M+11, @(9)Kansas St.+14, (5)West Virginia+8, @(3)Texas Tech+2, =(9)Kansas St.+16, =(5)West Virginia+11, =(5)Clemson+4, =(2)Duke+OT
Wins vs. Final Four (0): none
Losses to tournament teams (3): (11)Arizona St.-10, (3)Texas Tech-12, @(10)Oklahoma-5
Other losses (4): Washington-9, Oklahoma St.-5, @Baylor-16, @Oklahoma St.-18

Overview: Kansas was an incredible 17-3 vs. the tournament field on Selection Sunday, helped by having 6 other conference teams in the Dance. Even more amazing, they had 10 wins over teams that reached the Sweet Sixteen! Seven of these are wins over the three other Big Twelve teams that made it—Kansas State x 3, West Virginia x 3, and Texas Tech—but they also played and beat Kentucky, Syracuse, and Texas A&M. Their poor consistency rating can be seen visually in the chart above; they win big and, on rare occasion, lose badly. The Jayhawks rely on their starters more than any other team in the tournament, something that hasn't given them trouble yet on the road to the Final Four.

The team's leading scorer Devonte Graham scored 29 against Penn in a gritty win. They beat Seton Hall by 4 with Malik Newman scoring 28. The Jayhawks had another 4-point victory over Clemson where Newman led with 17. Newman was a superstar against Duke, chipping in 32 points—on 11 of 12 free throw shooting—in the overtime win.

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Game Analysis: The argument against Villanova is often: what if they go cold shooting threes? That was answered against Texas Tech, when they won despite making only 4 of them. But they held their opponent to 5 of 20 shooting outside the 3-point line, which shows that their defense can rise to the occasion. They'll need every bit of that against Kansas.

The Jayhawks have their own issues on defense, but they did enough to beat Duke. And 20 other tournament teams so far this season, too. But Villanova's offense is on another level of efficiency. Kansas will have to be at the top end of their variance to stay in the game, and hope Villanova's shooting has another off-night if they want to win.

Vegas Line:

Villanova by 5

Power rating: spread

Villanova by 5.2

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Villanova: 61.2%
Kansas: 38.8%

The early line matches our Strength power rating's spread almost exactly. KU has about a 2 in 5 chance of winning, according to the team's performances this season. But in the 4 tournament games, Villanova has been better each time.

Bottom line: This one is actually pretty straightforward: both teams are playing very consistently during the 4 games of the tournament so far, with very little variation despite Kansas' high volatility. In that 4-game stretch Villanova has been about 9 1/2 points better, raising their game far more than Kansas. In fact, each of Villanova's 4 tournament games outrates Kansas' best performance (against Duke). We picked Villanova to win it all from the start, so we're sticking with them to make the final with a solid defensive performance.

Final prediction: Villanova 76, Kansas 68

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 25, 2018 at 10:25 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2018 NCAA Tournament Final Four Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (3) Michigan vs. (11) Loyola-Chicago

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 3
Record: 32-7
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Seed: 11
Record: 32-5
Conference: MVC

Date: Saturday, March 31
Time: 6:09 pm Eastern
Location: San Antonio, TX
Channel: TBS

Loyola is the definition of a Cinderella in the NCAA tournament: a double-digit seed in the Final Four. They follow in the footsteps of LSU (11-seed in 1986), George Mason (11-seed, 2006), VCU (11, 2011), and Syracuse (10, 2016). None of those teams made it to the finals; will the Ramblers be the first?

Michigan Loyola-Chicago

Power Ratings

Strength:          #11     Strength:          #61
Pomeroy:           #7             Pomeroy:           #30
   Offense: #31                     Offense: #60
   Defense: #4                     Defense: #18
BPI:               #12             BPI:               #42
LRMC:    #13             LRMC:              #42

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #263            Consistency:       #277
Schedule Strength: #35             Schedule Strength: #118
Tempo (Pomeroy): #326            Tempo: #315
AP Final Poll:     #7             AP Final Poll:     #27
AP Pre-season:     #39             AP Pre-season:     #NR

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:    #12       Model Rank:    #42

Michigan has a big edge in the power ratings, but those ratings have had little impact on Loyola's success. Strength still has the Ramblers at #61, while BPI and Pomeroy weigh recent games more. Apparently Pomeroy weighs recent games about twice as much as the BPI, as the Ramblers are up to #30 in Pomeroy and just #42 in BPI. LRMC doesn't update past Selection Sunday.

Michigan's defense has a huge edge over Loyola's offense, but the Rambler defense is superior to the Wolverine offense, so it'll be a game, even on paper. Both teams play good defense and slow tempos, so look for another low-scoring game here.

Season overview: Michigan

Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (11)UCLA+OT, @(10)Texas+7, @(3)Michigan St.+10, (5)Ohio St.+12, =(3)Michigan St.+11, =(2)Purdue+9, =(14)Montana+14, =(6)Houston+1, =(3)Texas A&M+27, =(9)Florida St.+4
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(2)Purdue+9, =(3)Texas A&M+27, =(9)Florida St.+4
Wins vs. Final Four (0): none
Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)North Carolina-15, @(5)Ohio St.-9, (2)Purdue-1, @(2)Purdue-4
Other losses (3): =LSU-2, @Nebraska-20, @Northwestern-9

Overview: If there's a team that has momentum, it's Michigan. They won their last 9 game of the season including a Big Ten tournament championship. They only defeated one Sweet Sixteen team, Purdue, but they also lost twice to the Boilermakers. Michigan's slow tempo keeps scoring down but they still have 3 players who average double figures in a balanced attack. Charles Matthews led with 20 points and 11 rebounds against Montana, where the team's extra-week layoff didn't seem to hurt or help. They needed a last-second shot by Jordan Poole to top Houston, but nothing of the sort against Texas A&M as they beat the Aggies in a rout, with Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman putting in 24. The Florida State game was a lot closer as Michigan shot just 39%, but Matthews managed 17 points in the win.

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Season overview: Loyola-Chicago

Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (14)Wright St.+4, @(6)Florida+6,=(6)Miami FL+2, =(3)Tennessee+1,=(7)Nevada+1, =(9)Kansas St.+16
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(7)Nevada+1, =(9)Kansas St.+16
Wins vs. Final Four (0): none
Losses to tournament teams (0): none
Other losses (5): @Boise St.-34, @Milwaukee-17, @Missouri St.-5, Indiana St.-4, @Bradley-2

Overview: Loyola-Chicago had some terrible losses earlier in the season: falling by 34 to Boise (game 8) and by 16 to 16-17 Milwaukee (game 12). But since losing 3 of 4 around the New Year, it's been smooth sailing behind a strong defense. After upsetting Miami behind leading scorer Clayton Custer's 14 points, the Ramblers are still undefeated against the tournament field. Against Tennessee it was sixth man Aundre Jackson leading with 16. And maybe the Ramblers really do have an unfair advantage with Sister Jean, as they won their third nail-biter against Nevada behind Marques Townes' 18 points and clutch late 3-pointer. The Ramblers are clearly peaking at the right time as they played their best game of the season against Kansas State, with Ben Richardson scoring 23; after winning three tourney games by a total of 4 points they beat the Wildcats by 16.

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Game Analysis: The 11-seeds that have made it here before lost by 11, 15, and 8 points; 10-seed Syracuse only lost by 17 points in 2016. The 8-point loss was to an 8-seed (Butler), with the other three lost to a 2, a 3, and a 1-seed. So if history is any guide, when a double-digit seed takes on a top-3 seed in the Final Four, the double-digit seed loses by double digits.

Both these teams have momentum dating back well before the NCAA tournament. Michigan won 5 in row before the Big Ten tournament, in which they won 4 more games, for a total win streak of 13 games; Loyola won 7 before the 3-game Missouri Valley Conference tournament, for a total of 14 straight games.

Vegas Line:

Michigan by 6

Power rating: spread

Michigan by 8.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Michigan: 67.1%
Loyola-Chicago: 32.9%

The early line from Vegas is 6 points, the 5th straight line that favored Loyola's opponent. Our Strength power rating has favored their opponent each time, too. On paper, Michigan wins about 2/3 of the time.

Bottom line: We haven't been picking against Loyola each time like the oddsmakers. In fact, we picked them to win three times: the opener against Miami, against Nevada, and against Kansas State—every round except the 2nd round. And we picked Michigan each round, so our record with these teams in the tournament is 7-1.

So we aren't just picking against Loyola reflexively since they're the lower seed. But history is against them. What they've done up to now has precedent, and they'd be going into uncharted territory with a win. Against a different kind of team they would have a better chance, but Michigan plays their game—slow tempo, great defense—and plays it better than they do. Those two components should keep the game close and give the Ramblers a chance for upset. And they're playing their best basketball. But Michigan is playing their best, too. One of these teams will have their winning streak come to an end, and like the other 11-seeds in this situation, that is probably Loyola.

Final prediction: Michigan 64, Loyola-Chicago 53

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 25, 2018 at 09:13 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2018 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Kansas vs. (2) Duke

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 30-7
Conference: Big 12

vs.

Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 2
Record: 29-7
Conference: ACC

vs.

Date: Sunday, March 25
Time: 5:05 pm Eastern
Location: Omaha, NE
Region: Midwest
Channel: CBS

How typical, a 1-seed vs. a 2-seed. On top of that, it's Kansas vs. Duke, so commonplace...!

Kansas Duke

Power Ratings

Strength:          #6     Strength:          #2
Pomeroy:           #8             Pomeroy:           #3
   Offense: #5                     Offense: #2
   Defense: #46                     Defense: #9
BPI:               #7             BPI:               #3
LRMC:    #9             LRMC:              #3

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #323            Consistency:       #290
Schedule Strength: #2             Schedule Strength: #17
Tempo (Pomeroy): #149            Tempo: #92
AP Final Poll:     #4             AP Final Poll:     #9
AP Pre-season:     #4             AP Pre-season:     #1

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:    #7         Model Rank:    #5

So which team is the 1-seed and which is the 2-seed? Looking at the powe ratings, you'd expect the Blue Devils to be the 1-seed as they rank in the top 3 across the board. Kansas comes in 6th to 9th like a 2-seed. The two teams both have elite offenses but the difference on defensive efficiency is stark. If defense wins championships, Duke has the big edge in advancing to the Final Four.

But looking at both teams' inconsistency, there are clearly a lot of ways this game can play out. And Kansas is playing in their own backyard, 1,200 miles from the Duke campus.

Season overview: Kansas

Wins vs. tournament teams (20): =(5)Kentucky+4, (12)South Dakota St.+34, (16)Texas Southern+43, =(11)Syracuse+16, @(10)Texas+6, @(6)TCU+4, (9)Kansas St.+1, @(5)West Virginia+5, (7)Texas A&M+11, @(9)Kansas St.+14, (6)TCU+7, (5)West Virginia+8, (10)Oklahoma+30, @(3)Texas Tech+2, (10)Texas+10, =(9)Kansas St.+16, =(5)West Virginia+11, (16)Penn+16, =(8)Seton Hall+4, =(5)Clemson+4
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (11): =(5)Kentucky+4, =(11)Syracuse+16, (9)Kansas St.+1, @(5)West Virginia+5, (7)Texas A&M+11, @(9)Kansas St.+14, (5)West Virginia+8, @(3)Texas Tech+2, =(9)Kansas St.+16, =(5)West Virginia+11, =(5)Clemson+4
Losses to tournament teams (3): (11)Arizona St.-10, (3)Texas Tech-12, @(10)Oklahoma-5
Other losses (4): Washington-9, Oklahoma St.-5, @Baylor-16, @Oklahoma St.-18

Overview: Kansas was an incredible 17-3 vs. the tournament field on Selection Sunday, helped by having 6 other conference teams in the Dance. Even more amazing, they had 10 wins over teams that reached the Sweet Sixteen! Seven of these are wins over the three other Big Twelve teams that made it—Kansas State x 3, West Virginia x 3, and Texas Tech—but they also played and beat Kentucky, Syracuse, and Texas A&M. Their poor consistency rating can be seen visually in the chart above; they win big and, on rare occasion, lose badly. The Jayhawks rely on their starters more than any other team in the tournament, something that could be a factor deeper in the tournament. The team's leading scorer Devonte Graham scored 29 against Penn in a gritty win. They beat Seton Hall by 4 with Malik Newman scoring 28. The Jayhawks had another 4-point victory over Clemson where Newman led with 17.

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Season overview: Duke

Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =(3)Michigan St.+7, =(10)Texas+OT, =(6)Florida+3, (9)Florida St.+7, @(6)Miami FL+8, (8)Virginia Tech+22, @(5)Clemson+9, (11)Syracuse+16, (2)North Carolina+10, =(15)Iona+22, =(7)Rhode Island+25, =(11)Syracuse+4
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): (9)Florida St.+7, @(5)Clemson+9, (11)Syracuse+16, =(11)Syracuse+4
Losses to tournament teams (5): @(9)North Carolina St.-11, (1)Virginia-2, @(2)North Carolina-4, @(8)Virginia Tech-1, =(2)North Carolina-5
Other losses (2): @Boston College-5, @St. John's-4

Overview: Duke is led by four players in double figures, including Marvin Bagley III and the ever-popular Greyson Allen at 15.7. The Blue Devils played two off-the-chart games, the first a 124-67 win over St. Francis and then a 104-40 beatdown of Evansville; in-between, they lost to Boston College. They went 2-1 against 2-seed North Carolina, 0-1 against 1-seed Virginia, and beat 3-seed Michigan State, a team they may face again in the Sweet Sixteen. Duke pulled away from Iona early in the 2nd half an coasted to a 22 point win; Bagley led with 22. He scored 22 again as the Blue Devils routed Rhode Island by 25. Bagley had another 22 against Syracuse.

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Game Analysis: Will Duke's amazing new zone defense trip up the Jayhawks? Probably not at all. Kansas has one of the best offenses in the country, and it can more than match up with the Blue Devils. The zone won't bother them any more than Syracuse's zone bothered the Jayhawks when Kansas beat the Orange by 16 in early December. But Kansas' own defense is very suspect, and Duke's offense is top-notch. The problem for Kansas winning this game lies on that side of the court. The Jayhawks also have a bench problem: in the last 2 games they've had 7 and 9 points from their bench. That might finally be an issue against Duke.

Vegas Line:

Duke by 3 1/2

Power rating: spread

Duke by 3.4

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kansas: 45.1%
Duke: 54.9%

The 2-seed is favored by 3 or 4 over the 1-seed by Vegas; our Strength power rating agrees almost exactly. With lots of volatility between the two teams, Duke only wins 11 out of 20 contests, so it's not a sure thing by any means. And remember Kansas is playing close to home and should have a lot more fans in Omaha. If the Jayhawks were playing at home the game would be a virtual tie—we'd have Duke by 0.08 points, and Kansas winning 53% of the time paradoxically. Let's just say that for all intents and purposes this one is a tossup.

Bottom line: We had Duke in our Final Four from the start, and we're sticking with the Blue Devils. When Kansas loses they tend to lose big, but they've been solid the last six games so we see a close contest, as noted above.

Final prediction: Duke 80, Kansas 78

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 24, 2018 at 07:34 AM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2018 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Villanova vs. (3) Texas Tech

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Villanova Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 33-4
Conference: Big East

vs.

Texas Tech Red Raiders
Seed: 3
Record: 27-9
Conference: Big 12

Date: Sunday, March 25
Time: 2:20 pm Eastern
Location: Boston, MA
Region: East
Channel: CBS

For this tournament, a 1-seed facing a 3-seed is a bit of a shocker.

Villanova Texas Tech

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1     Strength:          #10
Pomeroy:           #1             Pomeroy:           #11
   Offense: #1                     Offense: #45
   Defense: #15                     Defense: #3
BPI:               #1             BPI:               #11
LRMC:    #1             LRMC:              #15

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #217            Consistency:       #181
Schedule Strength: #12             Schedule Strength: #22
Tempo (Pomeroy): #159            Tempo: #247
AP Final Poll:     #2             AP Final Poll:     #14
AP Pre-season:     #6             AP Pre-season:     #NR

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:    #1       Model Rank:    #18

The Villanova Wildcats are now #1 across the board in the power ratings surveyed (they were #2 in Pomeroy before Virginia's UMBC debacle). They are #1 in offensive efficiency by quite a margin, and they've also crept up to #15 in defense from their starting point of #22 before the tournament started. Texas Tech's profile is largely unchanged, with their solid defense at #3 and offense a middling #45.

Season overview: Villanova

Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =(3)Tennessee+9, (16)Penn+28, =(4)Gonzaga+16, (1)Xavier+24, (10)Providence+20, (8)Creighton+20, (8)Seton Hall+16, (10)Butler+11, @(1)Xavier+16, @(8)Seton Hall+OT, =(10)Butler+19, =(10)Providence+OT, =(16)Radford+26, =(9)Alabama+23, =(5)West Virginia+12
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(4)Gonzaga+16, =(5)West Virginia+12
Losses to tournament teams (3): @(10)Butler-8, @(10)Providence-5, @(8)Creighton-OT
Other losses (1): St. John's-4

Overview: Villanova has actually lost to some pretty pedestrian teams—10-seeds Butler and Providence, and 8-seed Creighton, as well as St. John's when the Red Storm were in Red Hulk mode. But they also beat 1-seed Xavier twice, 3-seed Tennessee, and 4-seed Gonzaga, and there's no arguing with 30-4 when your SOS is #11. The key to Villanova is their offense; we've seen loads of teams over the years with 5 players averaging double figures, but Villanova has 6, with Jalen Brunson at 19.4 ppg and Mikal Bridges at 18.0. Yes, they're dependent on shooting the three—even moreso than the last two years—which leads to some inconsistency in play, but they shoot it far better than in their championship year. That held true against Radford, as six Wildcats scored in double figures, making 14 of 27 threes. Against Alabama, they made 17 of 41, not nearly as good but still 41% as Bridges had 23 points. Brunson dropped 27 on West Virgina as the Wildcats made 54% of their threes.

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Season overview: Texas Tech

Wins vs. tournament teams (13): (7)Nevada+OT, @(1)Kansas+12, (9)Kansas St.+16, (5)West Virginia+1, (10)Texas+OT, @(6)TCU+12, @(9)Kansas St.+19, (10)Oklahoma+10, (6)TCU+4, =(10)Texas+4, =(14)Stephen F. Austin+10, (6)Florida+3, =(2)Purdue+13
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (6): (7)Nevada+OT, @(1)Kansas+12, (9)Kansas St.+16, (5)West Virginia+1, @(9)Kansas St.+19, =(2)Purdue+13
Losses to tournament teams (6): @(8)Seton Hall-10, @(10)Oklahoma-10, @(10)Texas-9, (1)Kansas-2, @(5)West Virginia-10, =(5)West Virginia-3
Other losses (3): @Iowa St.-18, @Baylor-2, @Oklahoma St.-8

Overview: Texas Tech was rolling along at 22-4 before a 4-game losing streak tripped them up at the end of the year. Three of those losses were to Texas, 1-seed Kansas and 5-seed West Virginia; they also fell to Oklahoma State and dropped their final game to the Mountaineers. In between they beat TCU and Texas. Not the best finish, but generally tough competition playing in the 7-bid Big 12. Senior guard Keenan Evans leads the team with a 17.5 ppg average; he scored 23 in the win over Stephen F. Austin and 22 against Florida. He made it 3 for 3 for the tournament by leading with 16 against Purdue, with 9 points on free throws as Tech went 17 for 18 from the stripe.

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Game Analysis: Texas Tech finally raised their game against Purdue—or did the Boilermakers finally have a bad game due to Isaac Haas being out? Whatever the reason, Texas Tech broke out of their holding pattern for a big win. It was their first really great effort since beating Kansas State 66-47 on February 10th. Villanova, on the other hand, had arguably their 3rd great game of the tournament. Clearly the highlight of the upcoming game is Villanova's offense vs. Texas Tech's defense, but with the Wildcat defensive play improving, the other side of the court may be what makes the difference.

Vegas Line:

Villanova by 6 1/2

Power rating: spread

Villanova by 6.8

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Villanova: 68.0%
Texas Tech: 32.0%

Almost the same line from Vegas or our Strength power rating. We could make an argument for giving Villanova another point or two for playing much closer to home. The Wildcat odds of beating Texas Tech in a given game are a bit higher than they were for beating West Virginia, a team similary rated to Texas Tech but much more volatile.

Bottom line: We think Texas Tech had their shining moment of the tournament, and Villanova will make the Final Four—but with their defense primarily.

Final prediction: Villanova 76, Texas Tech 67

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 24, 2018 at 06:35 AM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2018 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (3) Michigan vs. (9) Florida State

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 3
Record: 31-7
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Florida State Seminoles
Seed: 9
Record: 23-11
Conference: ACC

Date: Saturday, March 24
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Region: West
Channel: TBS

Michigan is the only team even close to being expected to be remaining in the entire left side of the bracket. They'll take on 9-seed Florida State, with the winner facing a 9-seed or an 11-seed in the Final Four.

Michigan Florida State

Power Ratings

Strength:          #10     Strength:          #29
Pomeroy:           #7             Pomeroy:           #26
   Offense: #24                     Offense: #33
   Defense: #3                     Defense: #44
BPI:               #11             BPI:               #29
LRMC:    #13             LRMC:              #50

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #228            Consistency:       #154
Schedule Strength: #40             Schedule Strength: #46
Tempo (Pomeroy): #324            Tempo: #41
AP Final Poll:     #7             AP Final Poll:     #NR
AP Pre-season:     #39             AP Pre-season:     #NR

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:    #12       Model Rank:    #37

Michigan's offense and defense both outrank their counterpart on FSU's side, but then again that was true of Gonzaga, too. The real battle here will be to set the tempo, as Michigan wants to play as slow as FSU wants to play fast.

Season overview: Michigan

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (11)UCLA+OT, @(10)Texas+7, @(3)Michigan St.+10, (5)Ohio St.+12, =(3)Michigan St.+11, =(2)Purdue+9, =(14)Montana+14, =(6)Houston+1, =(3)Texas A&M+27
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(2)Purdue+9, =(3)Texas A&M+27
Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)North Carolina-15, @(5)Ohio St.-9, (2)Purdue-1, @(2)Purdue-4
Other losses (3): =LSU-2, @Nebraska-20, @Northwestern-9

Overview: If there's a team that has momentum, it's Michigan. They won their last 9 game of the season including a Big Ten tournament championship. They've only defeated one Sweet Sixteen team, Purdue, but they also lost twice to the Boilermakers. Michigan's slow tempo keeps scoring down but they still have 3 players who average double figures in a balanced attack. Charles Matthews led with 20 points and 11 rebounds against Montana, where the team's extra-week layoff didn't seem to hurt or help. They needed a last-second shot by Jordan Poole to top Houston, but nothing of the sort against Texas A&M as they beat the Aggies in a rout, with Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman putting in 24.

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Season overview: Florida State

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): @(6)Florida+17, (2)North Carolina+1, (11)Syracuse+OT, @(8)Virginia Tech+9, (6)Miami FL+OT, (5)Clemson+OT, =(8)Missouri+13, =(1)Xavier+5, =(4)Gonzaga+15
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (11)Syracuse+OT, (5)Clemson+OT, =(4)Gonzaga+15
Losses to tournament teams (5): @(2)Duke-7, @(6)Miami FL-6, (1)Virginia-4, @(9)North Carolina St.-20, @(5)Clemson-13
Other losses (6): Oklahoma St.-1, Louisville-4, @Boston College-6, @Wake Forest-4, @Notre Dame-15, =Louisville-8

Overview: Florida State had big wins over 2-seed North Carolina and 5-seed Clemson, and 6 losses to non-tourney teams. They slipped a bit at the end losing three of four. The Seminoles have three scorers in double digits led by Terance Mann and Phil Cofer at 13ppg each. FSU jumped to a 42-20 halftime lead against Missouri and held on to win, with three reserves scoring in double figures. Five players—including three reverse again—scored in double figures against Xavier; starter Braian Angola led with 15. FSU played their third straight incredible game in beating Gonzaga by 15, with Mann scoring 18.

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Game Analysis: Gonzaga couldn't deal with Florida State's aggressive, athletic play. But Michigan under John Beilein has always rose to the challenge of facing physical, attacking teams. Both teams played perhaps their best game of the year to get here; Michigan's effort was about 8 points better, but across the whole tournament Florida State's been about a half point stronger. They've been a lot more consistent in their efforts, too. Prior to that the Seminoles were struggling, so how long can this run last?

Vegas Line:

Michigan by 4 1/2

Power rating: spread

Michigan by 4.2

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Michigan: 62.5%
Florida St.: 37.5%

Our power rating agrees almost exactly with Vegas that Michigan should be a slim but solid favorite; we give them a 5 in 8 chance to win. 3-seeds have won 100% of matchups with 9-seeds, but since it's only happened once that hardly offers good guidance.

Bottom line: Florida State's been consistently good in the tournament, while Michigan won by 27 after winning by a point. But Florida State may eventually revert to their regular-season quality. If that happens, they lose, whereas Michigan's late regular-season form was fantastic.

Final prediction: Michigan 73, Florida State 62

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 23, 2018 at 08:20 AM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2018 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (9) Kansas State vs. (11) Loyola Chicago

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 9
Record: 25-11
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Seed: 11
Record: 31-5
Conference: MVC

Date: Saturday, March 24
Time: 6:09 pm Eastern
Location: Atlanta, GA
Region: South
Channel: TBS

Loyola-Chicago has history against them, as only three 11-seeds have ever advanced to the Final Four—1986 LSU, 2006 George Mason, and 2011 VCU. Perhaps surprisingly though, history is even more against K-State, since only one 9-seed has made the Final Four (2013 Wichita State).

Kansas State Loyola-Chicago

Power Ratings

Strength:          #42     Strength:          #63
Pomeroy:           #36             Pomeroy:           #34
   Offense: #78                     Offense: #67
   Defense: #14                     Defense: #24
BPI:               #42             BPI:               #47
LRMC:    #53             LRMC:              #42

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #138            Consistency:       #272
Schedule Strength: #36             Schedule Strength: #129
Tempo (Pomeroy): #307            Tempo: #319
AP Final Poll:     #35             AP Final Poll:     #27
AP Pre-season:     #NR           AP Pre-season:     #NR

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:    #36       Model Rank:    #42

It's not often we even think of comparing a 9-seed to an 11-seed; the matchup can't occur in the first two rounds, and it's never happened in the 3rd round, Elite Eight or Final Four. So add another first to the 2018 NCAA tournament—a 9-seed playing an 11-seed. (Last week Kansas State was involved in another 'first' game, the 9-seed vs. 16-seed). In this case, with up-to-date rankings Kansas State is ahead by a lot in Strength, but it's close in the BPI, and Kenpom has the Ramblers ahead by a couple rungs. The pre-tournament LRMC already had Loyola in front. Both teams have mediocre offenses and strong defenses, so expect a lower-scoring game, especially since they both play slow tempos. Didn't we just hear from pundits that teams with good defense and slow tempos are "built for the regular season" ?

Season overview: Kansas State

Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (10)Oklahoma+18, (6)TCU+5, @(10)Texas+3, (10)Texas+10, =(6)TCU+OT, =(8)Creighton+11, =(16)UMBC+7, =(5)Kentucky+3
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(5)Kentucky+3
Losses to tournament teams (10): =(11)Arizona St.-2, (5)West Virginia-8, @(3)Texas Tech-16, @(1)Kansas-1, (1)Kansas-14, @(5)West Virginia-38, (3)Texas Tech-19, @(10)Oklahoma-9, @(6)TCU-7, =(1)Kansas-16
Other losses (1): =Tulsa-7

Overview: By Selection Sunday Kansas State had played 15 tournament teams and beat 5 of them, not bad for a 9-seed, particularly since 3 of the losses came against 1-seed Kansas. They did lose to West Virginia by 38, but recovered to play comparatively well over their last 8 pre-Dance games. The Wildcats' win over Creighton was among their best performances, even without leading scorer Dean Wade who was unexpectedly gone. Instead Barry Brown led with 18 points. The win over UMBC was more workmanlike and K-State never really took charge until the end; Brown repeated his 18-point performance, however. Xavier Sneed put in 22 to help topple Kentucky.

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Season overview: Loyola-Chicago

Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (14)Wright St.+4, @(6)Florida+6,=(6)Miami FL+2, =(3)Tennessee+1,=(7)Nevada+1
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(7)Nevada+1
Losses to tournament teams (0): none
Other losses (5): @Boise St.-34, @Milwaukee-17, @Missouri St.-5, Indiana St.-4, @Bradley-2

Overview: Loyola-Chicago had some terrible losses earlier in the season: falling by 34 to Boise (game 8) and by 16 to 16-17 Milwaukee (game 12). But since losing 3 of 4 around the New Year, it's been smooth sailing behind a strong defense. After upsetting Miami behind leading scorer Clayton Custer's 14 points, the Ramblers are still undefeated against the tournament field. Against Tennessee it was sixth man Aundre Jackson leading with 16. And maybe the Ramblers really do have an unfair advantage with Sister Jean, as they won their third nail-biter against Nevada behind Marques Townes' 18 points and clutch late 3-pointer.

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Game Analysis: It's no secret what both these teams are going to do: take their time on offense while stifling the other team on the defensive end. The result will almost certainly be a slow-paced game where neither team builds a big lead over the course of 38 minutes. Then both teams will hope to win in crunch time.

So we should look at the areas where the teams differ to gain insight. The Ramblers are better rebounders while K-State is better at creating turnovers. Kansas State's leading scorer Dean Wade played 8 minutes against Kentucky and scored 4 points, so don't expect he'll be a factor by Saturday; still, they've played about a point better than Loyola essentially without him, on average, during the tournament. Loyola's output during the tournament has been extremely consistent, while K-State has had peaks and valleys lately. It will depend on where the Wildcats fall on their chart

Vegas Line:

Kansas State by pick/1

Power rating: spread

Kansas State by 2.8

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kansas St.: 56.7%
Loyola-Chicago: 43.3%

Vegas hasn't settled on a consensus winner as of this writing, but it looks like they're leaning to K-State by a point. The Strength power rating is more pro-Wildcat than the other powe ratings and has K-State by nearly three points, giving them a 57% chance to win. The BPI has the game a virtual tossup at 51.2% to 48.8%. There is no historical guide for the 9- vs. 11-seed matchup.

Bottom line: This matchup was created by chaos, so we look to the Gods of Chaos for an answer. Would that be the 11-seed winning? Perhaps, but the 9-seed getting to the Final Four is three times as rare. Real chaos would mean a break from these teams playing low-scoring, close games, so we need to pick a clear winner. This time, somebody will win easily, with offense. As K-State has been up and down, they're set for a "down" game, while the Ramblers play the same way each time out.

Final prediction: Loyola-Chicago 77, Kansas State 65

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 23, 2018 at 07:38 AM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (2) Duke vs. (11) Syracuse

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 2
Record: 28-7
Conference: ACC

vs.

Syracuse Orange
Seed: 11
Record: 22-13
Conference: ACC

Date: Friday, March 23
Time: 9:37 pm Eastern
Location: Omaha, NE
Region: Midwest
Channel: CBS

Have we been telling you the play-in teams are dangerous? The play-in teams are dangerous.

Duke Syracuse

Power Ratings

Strength:          #2     Strength:          #45
Pomeroy:           #3             Pomeroy:           #44
   Offense: #3                     Offense: #139
   Defense: #8                     Defense: #5
BPI:               #2             BPI:               #45
LRMC:    #3             LRMC:              #54

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #297            Consistency:       #4
Schedule Strength: #17             Schedule Strength: #19
Tempo (Pomeroy): #86            Tempo: #345
AP Final Poll:     #9             AP Final Poll:     #NR
AP Pre-season:     #1             AP Pre-season:     #NR

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:    #5         Model Rank:        #45

Syracuse is threatening to do what they did in 2016—reach the Final Four as a double-digit seed. How do the Orange do so well in the post-season where Virginia, another team with a strong, unique defense and super-patient offense, is supposedly "built for the regular season?" It's probably because Syracuse's offense isn't very good, so the team loses a lot of games, and people overlook them. When confronted with their 2-3 zone, teams are troubled by it. If Syracuse had a top 25 offense, they would have been a high seed and probably been upset.

The Orange's postseason success counts on teams not being ready for their zone defense, but Duke has already played them and knows what to expect. They have their own solid defense, and great offense to boot, so unless they are overconfident, Syracuse's winning streak should end here.

Season overview: Duke

Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(3)Michigan St.+7, =(10)Texas+OT, =(6)Florida+3, (9)Florida St.+7, @(6)Miami FL+8, (8)Virginia Tech+22, @(5)Clemson+9, (11)Syracuse+16, (2)North Carolina+10, =(15)Iona+22, =(7)Rhode Island+25
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (9)Florida St.+7, @(5)Clemson+9, (11)Syracuse+16
Losses to tournament teams (5): @(9)North Carolina St.-11, (1)Virginia-2, @(2)North Carolina-4, @(8)Virginia Tech-1, =(2)North Carolina-5
Other losses (2): @Boston College-5, @St. John's-4

Overview: Duke is led by four players in double figures, including Marvin Bagley III and the ever-popular Greyson Allen at 15.7. The Blue Devils played two off-the-chart games, the first a 124-67 win over St. Francis and then a 104-40 beatdown of Evansville; in-between, they lost to Boston College. They went 2-1 against 2-seed North Carolina, 0-1 against 1-seed Virginia, and beat 3-seed Michigan State, a team they may face again in the Sweet Sixteen. Duke pulled away from Iona early in the 2nd half an coasted to a 22 point win; Bagley led with 22. He scored 22 again as the Blue Devils routed Rhode Island by 25.

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Season overview: Syracuse

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (15)Iona+9, (16)Texas Southern+13, (13)Buffalo+7, (8)Virginia Tech+12, @(6)Miami FL+7, (5)Clemson+3, =(11)Arizona St.+4, =(6)TCU+5, =(3)Michigan St.+2
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (5)Clemson+3
Losses to tournament teams (9): =(1)Kansas-16, (11)St. Bonaventure-OT, @(1)Virginia-7, @(9)Florida St.-OT, (1)Virginia-15, (9)North Carolina St.-4, (2)North Carolina-4, @(2)Duke-16, =(2)North Carolina-19
Other losses (4): @Wake Forest-6, Notre Dame-2, @Georgia Tech-4, @Boston College-15

Overview: Syracuse has a very orderly chart, reflecting their high level of consistency. And they played a lot of games against the field, since the ACC put 9 teams in the tournament. The Orange beat six teams, with a 5-seed their top skin, before the tournament, and lost to 9 teams including 1-seeds Kansas and Virginia (x2), and 2-seeds Duke and UNC. Syracuse gets their wins via defense, in particular great 2-point defense and lots of blocks, courtesy of 7-2" Paschal Chukwu, who averages 2.7 per game. Tyus Battle leads the offense with 19.7 points per game, but against Arizona State it was Oshae Brissett leading with 23, and Marek Dolezaj led with 15 against TCU. The Orange's 2-3 zone stifled Michigan State's offense while Battle led the offense with 17.

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Game Analysis: If the 2-3 zone were a common thing in college basketball, Syracuse would not be "built for the post-season", they'd be just another team with a poor offense. Their slow tempo keeps things close and they hope they can win at the end after frustrating teams for 40 minutes with a zone they haven't experienced before and have no time to prepare for. But it doesn't work as well when a team has seen it before, like Duke has. Orange fans think that the team does so well in the post-season because the defense keeps getting better as the season goes on, and that may be true. But Duke was able to beat the Orange 60-44 less than a month ago, and they did it by employing their own zone defense. Since then they have used a lot of zone defense, mostly 2-3, but also 3-2 in the tournament.

Vegas Line:

Duke by 11 1/2

Power rating: spread

Duke by 12.2

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Duke: 81.6%
Syracuse: 18.4%

5-seeds have won 14% of these matchups, so our game-comparison estimate is in-line with that limited sample of 14 games. Overall Duke is a double-digit favorite.

Bottom line: Duke might not get their offense going like they'd like, but they can win the rematch with their own solid defense.

Final prediction: Duke 62, Syracuse 50

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 20, 2018 at 11:47 AM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Villanova vs. (5) West Virginia

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Villanova Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 32-4
Conference: Big East

vs.

West Virginia Mountaineers
Seed: 5
Record: 26-10
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Friday, March 23
Time: 7:27 pm Eastern
Location: Boston, MA
Region: East
Channel: TBS

Will any #1 seeds survive to the Elite Eight? West Virginia hopes not.

Villanova West Virginia

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1     Strength:          #8
Pomeroy:           #1             Pomeroy:           #11
   Offense: #1                     Offense: #11
   Defense: #19                     Defense: #39
BPI:               #1             BPI:               #9
LRMC:    #1             LRMC:              #10

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #232            Consistency:       #345
Schedule Strength: #15             Schedule Strength: #30
Tempo (Pomeroy): #175            Tempo: #129
AP Final Poll:     #2             AP Final Poll:     #15
AP Pre-season:     #6             AP Pre-season:     #11

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:    #1       Model Rank:    #22

The Villanova Wildcats are now #1 across the board in the power ratings surveyed (they were #2 in Pomeroy before Virginia's UMBC debacle). They are #1 in offensive efficiency by quite a margin, and they don't play a slow tempo that would keep things close regardless of efficiency (they are almost exactly average in tempo). Their defense is good, too. To counter, West Virginia offers numbers that are very good for a 5-seed, including a near-top-ten offense that is capable of outplaying Nova's defense. All they have to worry about is their own defense, against Nova's #1 offense. Their secret weapon is their volatility, among the "best" in the nation. If they play on the upside of their potential, they can easily beat the Cats. If they play on the downside, they lose big. Villanova isn't the most consistent team, either, probably due to their reliance on 3-pt shooting. West Virginia's volatility results from their full-court press defensive style, which either works or it doesn't.

Season overview: Villanova

Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =(3)Tennessee+9, (16)Penn+28, =(4)Gonzaga+16, (1)Xavier+24, (10)Providence+20, (8)Creighton+20, (8)Seton Hall+16, (10)Butler+11, @(1)Xavier+16, @(8)Seton Hall+OT, =(10)Butler+19, =(10)Providence+OT, =(16)Radford+26, =(9)Alabama+23
Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =(4)Gonzaga+16
Losses to tournament teams (3): @(10)Butler-8, @(10)Providence-5, @(8)Creighton-OT
Other losses (1): St. John's-4

Overview: Villanova has actually lost to some pretty pedestrian teams—10-seeds Butler and Providence, and 8-seed Creighton, as well as St. John's when the Red Storm were in Red Hulk mode. But they also beat 1-seed Xavier twice, 3-seed Tennessee, and 4-seed Gonzaga, and there's no arguing with 30-4 when your SOS is #11. The key to Villanova is their offense; we've seen loads of teams over the years with 5 players averaging double figures, but Villanova has 6, with Jalen Brunson at 19.4 ppg and Mikal Bridges at 18.0. Yes, they're dependent on shooting the three—even moreso than the last two years—which leads to some inconsistency in play, but they shoot it far better than in their championship year. That held true against Radford, as six Wildcats scored in double figures, making 14 of 27 threes. Against Alabama, they made 17 of 41, not nearly as good but still 41% as Bridges had 23 points.

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Season overview: West Virginia

Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =(8)Missouri+4, (1)Virginia+7, @(9)Kansas St.+8, (10)Oklahoma+13, (10)Texas+35, (9)Kansas St.+38, @(10)Oklahoma+2, (6)TCU+16, (3)Texas Tech+10, =(3)Texas Tech+3, =(12)Murray St.+17, =(13)Marshall+23
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): @(9)Kansas St.+8, (9)Kansas St.+38, (3)Texas Tech+10, =(3)Texas Tech+3
Losses to tournament teams (8): =(7)Texas A&M-23, @(3)Texas Tech-1, (1)Kansas-5, @(6)TCU-9, (5)Kentucky-7, @(1)Kansas-8, @(10)Texas-OT, =(1)Kansas-11
Other losses (2): @Iowa St.-16, Oklahoma St.-3

Overview: West Virginia kicked off the season with a 23-point loss to 7-seed Texas A&M; two games later they took out their frustrations on Morgan State, 111-48. Other peaks in the chart above include game 19 (86-51 over 10-seed Texas) and #23 (89-51 over 9-seed Kansas State). Most of their tournament-team wins are over middling seeds, but they beat 1-seed Virginia, and beat 3-seed Texas Tech twice. They went 0-3 vs. 1-seed Kansas, however. Jevon Carter leads the team with a 17ppg average; he had 21 in the win over Murray State and 28 against Marshall.

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Game Analysis: Both teams are fairly volatile. Villanova is less consistent than most teams because they shoot so many threes. West Virginia's volatility comes from their defense, a full court press that, when it works, creates lots of turnovers, and on half-court play, lots of blocks due to Sagaba Konate. When it doesn't work, it results in easy baskets or free throws for the opponent. Villanova doesn't look like the type to be affected as much as most teams, as they turn the ball over at a pretty low rate. They're also a very good free throw shooting team.

We can see now why West Virginia beat 1-seed Virginia—by disrupting their patient offense, leaving them less time to work on the offensive court. Villanova takes their time on offense, too, but not nearly as much time as Virginia.

Vegas Line:

Villanova by 5 1/2

Power rating: spread

Villanova by 5.8

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Villanova: 65.4%
West Virginia: 34.6%

Pretty solid agreement on the spread, and we give the Mountaineers more than a 1 in 3 shot at the upset. Historically 5-seeds have less than a 1 in 5 chance against 1-seeds, but West Virginia is more like a 3-seed in quality—and 3-seeds win at a 36% clip.

Bottom line: West Virginia can beat anyone when they have luck on their side—and their defense doing it's job destroying the other team's offensive rhythm. That could happen here, but Nova might be more immune to it than most teams. We pick them to win with a three pointer at the buzzer.

Final prediction: Villanova 79, West Virginia 76

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 20, 2018 at 10:46 AM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Kansas vs. (5) Clemson

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 29-7
Conference: Big 12

vs.

Clemson Tigers
Seed: 5
Record: 25-9
Conference: ACC

vs.

Date: Friday, March 23
Time: 7:07 pm Eastern
Location: Omaha, NE
Region: Midwest
Channel: CBS

Only two top seeds are left; will Kansas be the next victim, to an on-fire Clemson squad?

Kansas Clemson

Power Ratings

Strength:          #6     Strength:          #17
Pomeroy:           #9             Pomeroy:           #14
   Offense: #5                     Offense: #42
   Defense: #46                     Defense: #7
BPI:               #7             BPI:               #16
LRMC:    #9             LRMC:              #24

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #331            Consistency:       #144
Schedule Strength: #3             Schedule Strength: #28
Tempo (Pomeroy): #163            Tempo: #285
AP Final Poll:     #4             AP Final Poll:     #20
AP Pre-season:     #4             AP Pre-season:     #NR

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:    #7         Model Rank:    #20

Theoretically a 1-seed and a 5-seed should be around 16 rungs away on power ratings. They're only 11 in Strength and 9 in BPI, but before the tournament they were 15 spots different in LRMC. In Pomeroy, it's #9 vs. #14, and it's easy to see why when you look at their Offense and Defense rankings: they're the mirror image of each other. Kansas will match their #5 offense with Clemson's #7 defense, while Clemson's #42 offense faces Kansas' #46 defense. From those numbers, this game looks like a coin flip. Add in Kansas' inconsistency, and Clemson's dominant last game, and anything can happen here. If a 16-seed and a 9-seed can beat a 1-seed, a 5-seed should probably be the favorite!

Season overview: Kansas

Wins vs. tournament teams (19): =(5)Kentucky+4, (12)South Dakota St.+34, (16)Texas Southern+43, =(11)Syracuse+16, @(10)Texas+6, @(6)TCU+4, (9)Kansas St.+1, @(5)West Virginia+5, (7)Texas A&M+11, @(9)Kansas St.+14, (6)TCU+7, (5)West Virginia+8, (10)Oklahoma+30, @(3)Texas Tech+2, (10)Texas+10, =(9)Kansas St.+16, =(5)West Virginia+11, (16)Penn+16, =(8)Seton Hall+4
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (10): =(5)Kentucky+4, =(11)Syracuse+16, (9)Kansas St.+1, @(5)West Virginia+5, (7)Texas A&M+11, @(9)Kansas St.+14, (5)West Virginia+8, @(3)Texas Tech+2, =(9)Kansas St.+16, =(5)West Virginia+11
Losses to tournament teams (3): (11)Arizona St.-10, (3)Texas Tech-12, @(10)Oklahoma-5
Other losses (4): Washington-9, Oklahoma St.-5, @Baylor-16, @Oklahoma St.-18

Overview: Kansas was an incredible 17-3 vs. the tournament field on Selection Sunday, helped by having 6 other conference teams in the Dance. Even more amazing, they have 10 wins over teams that reached the Sweet Sixteen! Seven of these are wins over the three other Big Twelve teams that made it—Kansas State x 3, West Virginia x 3, and Texas Tech—but they also played and beat Kentucky, Syracuse, and Texas A&M. Their poor consistency rating can be seen visually in the chart above; they win big and, on rare occasion, lose badly. The Jayhawks rely on their starters more than any other team in the tournament, something that could be a factor deeper in the tournament. The team's leading scorer Devonte Graham scored 29 against Penn in a tough win. They had another tough win over Seton Hall, beating the Pirates by 4 with Malik Newman scoring 28.

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Season overview: Clemson

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (16)Texas Southern+7, @(5)Ohio St.+14, @(6)Florida+2, (9)North Carolina St.+16, (6)Miami FL+9, (2)North Carolina+4, (9)Florida St.+13, =(12)New Mexico St.+11, =(4)Auburn+31
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (9)Florida St.+13
Losses to tournament teams (8): @(9)North Carolina St.-1, @(2)North Carolina-8, @(1)Virginia-25, @(9)Florida St.-OT, (2)Duke-9, @(8)Virginia Tech-7, @(11)Syracuse-3, =(1)Virginia-6
Other losses (1): =Temple-7

Overview: With Clemson, what you see is what you get for the most part; win or lose, they play about the same, as could be seen in their last 8 games—until their most recent win. They were consistent to a fault even as they went 4-4 down the stretch before the tournament. That will happen with good defensive teams who play a slow pace—it evens things out. On offense the Tigers are pretty non-descript but they make their free throws, which can smooth out the rough edges of an offense. With four players in double figures, there's always someone to pick up the slack, too (they had 5 until Donte Grantham tore his ACL). Shelton Mitchell led the Tigers with 23 points against New Mexico State, and Gabe DeVoe added 22. Against Auburn DeVoe led with 22 as the Tigers destroyed their "consistent play" chart with an outlier win.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: Kansas has been tepid so far, beating 16-seed Penn by 6 and Seton Hall by 4. Meanwhile Clemson just beat 4-seed Auburn by 31 in a game where they led 70-29 at one point. If they both play the same on Friday, Clemson will win by 28 points. If you want to take the team that's hot, take Clemson.

On the other hand, we have to discount the Clemson-Auburn score somewhat. Sometimes a blowout happens because one team is playing well, but other times, the losing team is playing poorly. Until that game Clemson had ranked as a very consistent team, so it's likely the blowout was more Auburn's doing than Clemson's. No doubt Clemson played well, but Auburn has been playing with 8 players and the writing was on the wall—at some point, it was going to catch up to them and it did on Sunday.

Could a similar thing happen to starter-dependent Kansas? The Jayhawks have only really been using 8 players lately. That's different from only having 8 players like Auburn, but if anyone gets hurt Kansas is in trouble.

The real interesting part of this matchup is that, on both sides of the court, Clemson is basically as good as Kansas. Somehow, though, Kansas has 10 wins over the current field to Clemson's one win. That can't be discounted. And the Jayhawks are playing right next door in Omaha, Nebraska.

Vegas Line:

Kansas by 4

Power rating: spread

Kansas by 4.0

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kansas: 63.4%
Clemson: 36.6%

A rare case where Vegas and the Strength power rating match exactly. We didn't give any consideration for Kansas playing closer to home or they would diverge the normal amount.

Bottom line: We were going to discount Clemson's win over Auburn—we still do—and recognize that Kansas is due for a good game, possibly a blowout win of their own over Clemson. That may happen, but they haven't shown any indication yet in the tournament of going to the next level, and no matter how much of Clemson's last game was the other team's fault, it was still a great performance and they will gain confidence from it. The thing that really surprised me was looking at the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers and how close they were. We originally had Kansas going to the Elite Eight but this one is too intriguing of an upset. I'm sure it will be a popular pick due to the way both teams have been playing in the tournament so far, but there are other reasons to go with the Tigers.

Final prediction: Clemson 73, Kansas 69

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 20, 2018 at 09:28 AM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (4) Gonzaga vs. (9) Florida State

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 4
Record: 32-4
Conference: West Coast

vs.

Florida State Seminoles
Seed: 9
Record: 22-11
Conference: ACC

Date: Thursday, March 22
Time: 10:07 pm Eastern
Location: Los Angeles
Region: West
Channel: TBS

Gonzaga is shooting to return to the national title game; Florida State is looking for their first Elite Eight appearance since 1993.

Gonzaga Florida State

Power Ratings

Strength:          #10     Strength:          #31
Pomeroy:           #7             Pomeroy:           #30
   Offense: #12                     Offense: #32
   Defense: #14                     Defense: #55
BPI:               #10             BPI:               #33
LRMC:    #5             LRMC:              #50

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #243            Consistency:       #154
Schedule Strength: #94            Schedule Strength: #46
Tempo (Pomeroy): #101            Tempo: #37
AP Final Poll:     #8            AP Final Poll:     #NR
AP Pre-season:     #18             AP Pre-season:     #NR

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank: #11          Model Rank:     #37

Gonzaga looks to have the edge here, and with their efficiency on both offense and defense they look like a solid pick. They're a little big inconsistent, and their schedule's been a bit light. Florida State pushes the pace more than the Zags.

Season overview: Gonzaga

Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (16)Texas Southern+28, =(5)Ohio St.+27, =(10)Texas+OT, (8)Creighton+17, =(13)UNC Greensboro+4, =(5)Ohio St.+6
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): none
Losses to tournament teams (3): =(6)Florida-OT, =(1)Villanova-16, @(11)San Diego St.-2
Other losses (1): Saint Mary's-3

Overview: The Zags didn't come close to going undefeated this year, losing in their 5th game to Florida in double overtime. They also lost to 1-seed Villanova, 11-seed San Diego State, and first-four-out St. Mary's. They were on a health 14-game winning streak to enter the tournament. Gonzaga has five players that average in double figures, resulting in an offense that's hard to know how to guard. Greensboro did a good job, though, but Jonathan Williams' 19 led the way for the Bulldogs. The Zags got their 2nd win against Ohio State by a lesser margin but it was more important this time. Zach Norvell had 28 points in the win.

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Season overview: Florida State

Wins vs. tournament teams (8): @(6)Florida+17, (2)North Carolina+1, (11)Syracuse+OT, @(8)Virginia Tech+9, (6)Miami FL+OT, (5)Clemson+OT, =(8)Missouri+13, =(1)Xavier+5
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (11)Syracuse+OT, (5)Clemson+OT
Losses to tournament teams (5): @(2)Duke-7, @(6)Miami FL-6, (1)Virginia-4, @(9)North Carolina St.-20, @(5)Clemson-13
Other losses (6): Oklahoma St.-1, Louisville-4, @Boston College-6, @Wake Forest-4, @Notre Dame-15, =Louisville-8

Overview: Florida State had big wins over 2-seed North Carolina and 5-seed Clemson, and 6 losses to non-tourney teams. They slipped a bit at the end losing three of four. The Seminoles have three scorers in double digits led by Terance Mann and Phil Cofer at 13ppg each. FSU jumped to a 42-20 halftime lead against Missouri and held on to win, with three reserves scoring in double figures. Five players—including three reverse again—scored in double figures against Xavier; starter Braian Angola led with 15.

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Game Analysis: The main difference between the teams is probably hunger: though Gonzaga wants to win the title that they almost reached last year, will they have that hunger against a 9-seed? They were supposed to face 1-seed Xavier, with the winner taking on last year's champ North Carolina—the team that beat them in the 2017 finals. Now they're the favorite against Florida State with vengeance over UNC off the table. The Seminoles on the other hand are nearly forging new ground for the program: they've never been to the Final Four, and only been to the Elight Eight once, in 1993, when all of the current players were exactly zero years old.

Vegas Line:

Gonzaga by 5 1/2

Power rating: spread

Gonzaga by 4.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Gonzaga: 64.7%
Florida State: 35.3%

Vegas favors Gonzaga by about the same margin as our Strength power rating; FSU's upset chances as a 9-seed facing a 4-seed are, historically speaking, 0%, since 9-seeds are 0-2 against 4-seeds. We give them about a 1 in 3 shot of an upset.

Bottom line: With all the upsets on this side of the brackets it's hard to with the favorite, especially one that might be caught unmotivated as the favorite. But we were going to pick Gonzaga to beat Xavier, so we'll advance them to the Elite Eight.

Final prediction: Gonzaga 82, Florida State 77

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 19, 2018 at 01:31 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (5) Kentucky vs. (9) Kansas State

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 5
Record: 26-10
Conference: SEC

vs.

Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 9
Record: 24-11
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Thursday, March 22
Time: 9:37 pm Eastern
Location: Atlanta, GA
Region: South
Channel: CBS

Remember when Kentucky fans complained about their crappy bracket placement, with Arizona, Virginia, and Cincinnati to get past en route to the Final Four? They had a good point, but after beating a 12-seed and a 13-seed, UK is now the favorite in the South.

Kentucky Kansas State

Power Ratings

Strength:          #16     Strength:          #43
Pomeroy:           #16             Pomeroy:           #39
   Offense: #20                     Offense: #74
   Defense: #24                     Defense: #20
BPI:               #19             BPI:               #43
LRMC:    #16             LRMC:              #53

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #111            Consistency:       #138
Schedule Strength: #5             Schedule Strength: #36
Tempo (Pomeroy): #138            Tempo: #303
AP Final Poll:     #18             AP Final Poll:     #35
AP Pre-season:     #5            AP Pre-season:     #NR

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:    #19       Model Rank:    #36

Kentucky will be the favorite and rates better, but the defenses are roughly equal and K-State's D is a good match for Kentucky's offense in terms of efficiency. Neither team is terribly erratic. K-State plays a slower tempo so they'll try to play good defense and stick close, but if they get behind it's hard to see them make up ground very fast.

Season overview: Kentucky

Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (8)Virginia Tech+7, (7)Texas A&M+1, @(5)West Virginia+7, (9)Alabama+10, @(7)Arkansas+15, (8)Missouri+21, =(9)Alabama+23, =(3)Tennessee+5, =(12)Davidson+5, =(13)Buffalo+20
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (7)Texas A&M+1, @(5)West Virginia+7
Losses to tournament teams (9): =(1)Kansas-4, =(11)UCLA-8, @(3)Tennessee-11, (6)Florida-2, @(8)Missouri-9, (3)Tennessee-2, @(7)Texas A&M-11, @(4)Auburn-10, @(6)Florida-13
Other losses (1): @South Carolina-8

Overview: Kentucky beat a lot of good teams but lost to the top-tier teams (Kansas, Tennessee x 2, Auburn) until they beat the Vols on Selection Sunday to capture the SEC crown. Only two of their victims advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. Winners of 9 of their last 10 and as always, notoriously young, is this crop of freshmen peaking at the right time? Leading scorer Kevin Knox had 25 against Davidson as Kentucky won without making a 3-pointer—probably a good sign, actually, as they only felt the need to attempt 6. They had no problem with Buffalo, winning by 20 as Hamidou Diallo scored 22.

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Season overview: Kansas State

Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (10)Oklahoma+18, (6)TCU+5, @(10)Texas+3, (10)Texas+10, =(6)TCU+OT, =(8)Creighton+11, =(16)UMBC+7
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): none
Losses to tournament teams (10): =(11)Arizona St.-2, (5)West Virginia-8, @(3)Texas Tech-16, @(1)Kansas-1, (1)Kansas-14, @(5)West Virginia-38, (3)Texas Tech-19, @(10)Oklahoma-9, @(6)TCU-7, =(1)Kansas-16
Other losses (1): =Tulsa-7

Overview: By Selection Sunday Kansas State had played 15 tournament teams and beat 5 of them, not bad for a 9-seed, particularly since 3 of the losses came against 1-seed Kansas. They did lose to West Virginia by 38, but recovered to play comparatively well over their last 8 pre-Dance games. The Wildcats' win over Creighton was among their best performances, even without leading scorer Dean Wade who was unexpectedly gone. Instead Barry Brown led with 18 points. The win over UMBC was more workmanlike and K-State never really took charge until the end; Brown repeated his 18-point performance, however.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: Kentucky has been playing very well lately; K-State has been hit and miss. UK is about 11 points better than Kansas State over the last 5 games; some of that is probably due to K-State missing their leading scorer, Dean Wade. Wade could be back in time for the Thursday game, which would give KSU a big boost. Kentucky might also have a player returning, Jared Vanderbilt, who is their leading rebounder on a per-game basis. The upside for K-State is bigger, as they need help on offense while Kentucky is already expected to outrebound KSU.

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by 6

Power rating: spread

Kentucky by 4.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kentucky: 59.2%
Kansas State: 40.8%

Vegas favors the Kentucky Wildcats more than our Strength power rating does, which is a bit unusual. Interestingly, 5-seeds have only played 9-seeds twice, with each seed winning once.

Bottom line: Kansas State struggled to impose their will on UMBC, and as sloppy as they played there it's hard to see them being methodical against Kentucky. They clearly miss Dean Wade's leadership, so if it's confirmed that he's back and healthy we may revisit the prediction, but for now we have Kentucky pulling away.

Final prediction: Kentucky 73, Kansas State 62

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 19, 2018 at 12:34 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (3) Michigan vs. (7) Texas A&M

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 3
Record: 30-7
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Texas A&M Aggies
Seed: 6
Record: 28-7
Conference: AAC

Date: Thursday, March 22
Time: 7:37 pm Eastern
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Region: West
Channel: TBS

Two of the nation's best defenses will clash in Los Angeles.

Michigan Texas A&M

Power Ratings

Strength:          #13     Strength:          #25
Pomeroy:           #10             Pomeroy:           #25
   Offense: #36                     Offense: #65
   Defense: #3                     Defense: #10
BPI:               #12             BPI:               #32
LRMC:    #13             LRMC:              #27

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #228            Consistency:       #321
Schedule Strength: #40             Schedule Strength: #7
Tempo (Pomeroy): #329            Tempo: #110
AP Final Poll:     #7             AP Final Poll:     #NR
AP Pre-season:     #39             AP Pre-season:     #25

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:    #12       Model Rank:    #27

Michigan's defense is #3, while the Aggies have the #10 defense. Neither offense is elite but Michigan has the advantage there, too. The Wolverines will tend to slow the game down, and both teams are less than consistent, especially the Aggies. Michigan has been playing well for almost the last month, while Texas A&M's last game was incredible.

Season overview: Michigan

Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (11)UCLA+OT, @(10)Texas+7, @(3)Michigan St.+10, (5)Ohio St.+12, =(3)Michigan St.+11, =(2)Purdue+9, =(14)Montana+14, =(6)Houston+1
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(2)Purdue+9
Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)North Carolina-15, @(5)Ohio St.-9, (2)Purdue-1, @(2)Purdue-4
Other losses (3): =LSU-2, @Nebraska-20, @Northwestern-9

Overview: If there's a team that has momentum, it's Michigan. They won their last 9 game of the season including a Big Ten tournament championship. They've only defeated one Sweet Sixteen team, Purdue, but they also lost twice to the Boilermakers. Michigan's slow tempo keeps scoring down but they still have 3 players who average double figures in a balanced attack. Charles Matthews led with 20 points and 11 rebounds against Montana, where the team's extra-week layoff didn't seem to hurt or help. They needed a last-second shot by Jordan Poole to top Houston.

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Season overview: Texas A&M

Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(5)West Virginia+23, (13)Buffalo+16, (8)Missouri+11, (7)Arkansas+14, @(4)Auburn+1, (5)Kentucky+11, (9)Alabama+2, =(10)Providence+4, @(2) North Carolina+21
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(5)West Virginia+23, (5)Kentucky+11
Losses to tournament teams (9): @(4)Arizona-3, @(9)Alabama-22, (6)Florida-17, @(5)Kentucky-1, @(3)Tennessee-13, @(1)Kansas-11, @(8)Missouri-4, @(7)Arkansas-19, =(9)Alabama-1
Other losses (3): LSU-1, @LSU-12, Mississippi St.-12

Overview: The Aggies raced to an 11-1 record against a pretty tough slate, but began losing once the SEC season began. They finished just .500 in conference play and lost in the first round of the SEC tournament. The Aggies boast four players in double figures but in games without #6 scorer Duane Wilson, who is out for the season, they were 3-7 (now 5-7). True to form, against Providence there were four in double figures—but the highest output after that was 5 points. Everything came together aginst North Carolina, however, for their best game since the opening win over West Virginia; TJ Starks led with 21 points.

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Game Analysis: Which is better: momentum from a huge, season-defining win? Or playing consistently well for a month? If it's the former, Texas A&M should win the game. Their performance against North Carolina was at least 20 points better than Michigan's last-second win. But go back much further and the edge shifts to the Wolverines; even over the last 3 games, the edge of that one huge Aggie performance is overwhelmed by Michigan's consistency.

Can the Aggies repeat that great performance though? To speculate, let's look at what kind of team North Carolina is and compare them to Michigan. The Tar Heels had a great offense (#4) and middling defense (#35); this allowed Texas A&M's middling offense to shine while their own defense limited the Tar Heels. They also had a size advantage down low. Michigan is the opposite in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency, with a solid defense and middling offense. They also have 6-11 Moritz Wagner to battle 266-lb Tyler Davis for rebounds. So the game doesn't line up the same, but the Aggies still appear to have a big edge in getting offensive rebounds, ranking #30 in Pomeroy's stats to #270 for Michigan.

Note that either team shoots free throws well at all, with both around 66% for the year.

Vegas Line:

Michigan by 3

Power rating: spread

Michigan by 2.5

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Michigan: 56.5%
Texas A&M: 43.5%

Michigan is around a 3 point favorite by the spread and our Strength power rating. Our game-comparison system's odds give Michigan almost the exact same chance as the historical rate for a 3-seed beating a 7-seed, 57%.

Bottom line: Unless Texas A&M manages to repeat their UNC performance, the game should be fairly close. And Michigan is unlikely to shoot just 33% like North Carolina did. It's been a terrible side of the bracket for favorites, but we pick Michigan to advance.

Final prediction: Michigan 67, Texas A&M 64

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 19, 2018 at 11:04 AM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (7) Nevada vs. (11) Loyola-Chicago

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Nevada Wolf Pack
Seed: 7
Record: 29-7
Conference: Mtn. West

vs.

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Seed: 11
Record: 30-5
Conference: MVC

Date: Thursday, March 22
Time: 7:07 pm Eastern
Location: Atlanta, GA
Region: South
Channel: CBS

Neither team was supposed to be here, but Loyola pulled off two upsets, and Nevada engineered two amazing comebacks. Which team's luck is going to run out?

Nevada Loyola-Chicago

Power Ratings

Strength:          #26     Strength:          #63
Pomeroy:           #23             Pomeroy:           #36
   Offense: #6                     Offense: #63
   Defense: #110                     Defense: #27
BPI:               #31             BPI:               #48
LRMC:    #18             LRMC:              #42

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #126            Consistency:       #272
Schedule Strength: #68             Schedule Strength: #129
Tempo (Pomeroy): #105            Tempo: #318
AP Final Poll:     #24             AP Final Poll:     #27
AP Pre-season:     #36t            AP Pre-season:     #NR

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:    #26       Model Rank:    #42

Looking at the numbers, Loyola is more balanced and defensive-minded, while Nevada is all offense. The latter could explain how they are getting so far behind (bad defense) but then able to roar back to win (great offense). Loyola has been able to stick close to their opponents to the end—giving them a chance to upset—by playing a slow tempo with strong defense. Nevada just beat two teams that played slow tempo, but they also fell behind by a lot in the process; Loyola's defense isn't nearly as good as those teams were, and their offense is about the same. So what should happen in the game? Your guess is as good as mine.

Loyola ranks quite a bit better in Pomeroy than Strength, since the latter doesn't weigh recent games. For the 2nd half of the season Loyola is #31 in Strength, Nevada #35.

Season overview: Nevada

Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (7)Rhode Island+7, (12)Davidson+13, (16)Radford+15, (11)San Diego St.+25, =(10)Texas+OT, =(2)Cincinnati+2
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): none
Losses to tournament teams (3) @(3)Texas Tech-OT, =(6)TCU-4, @(11)San Diego St.-5, =(11)San Diego St.-17
Other losses (3): =San Francisco-2, @Wyoming-OT, UNLV-8

Overview: Four of Nevada's five best wins are over 10-seeds or worse, suggesting their ability to beat good teams is lacking and they're in for a short run. Can they step it up to beat a 2-seed? Since starting point guard and #5 scorer Lindsey Drew was lost for the season (8 games ago), the Pack have been about 4 points worse. Their offense still boasts solid 3-point shooting and doesn't turn the ball over; Caleb Martin leads with 19.1 ppg and Jordan Caroline adds 17.9. Against the Longhorns Martin hit three 3's in overtime to seal the win. In the huge Cincy comeback, he led with 25 points.

**************************************************************

Season overview: Loyola-Chicago

Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (14)Wright St.+4, @(6)Florida+6,=(6)Miami FL+2, =(3)Tennessee+1
Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): none
Losses to tournament teams (0): none
Other losses (5): @Boise St.-34, @Milwaukee-17, @Missouri St.-5, Indiana St.-4, @Bradley-2

Overview: Loyola-Chicago had some terrible losses earlier in the season: falling by 34 to Boise (game 8) and by 16 to 16-17 Milwaukee (game 12). But since losing 3 of 4 around the New Year, it's been smooth sailing behind a strong defense. After upsetting Miami behind leading scorer Clayton Custer's 14 points, the Ramblers are still undefeated against the tournament field. Against Tennessee it was sixth man Aundre Jackson leading with 16.

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Game Analysis: Why does Nevada keep falling behind, big? The answer must be their poor defense. How do they keep coming back, against great defenses? Obviously their offense is good, but then, why don't they score those points earlier, rather than needing a monster comeback? It seems that Nevada's offense works best when they take risks. When they have nothing to lose—being down so far—their offense shines. During the normal course of the game they play more conservatively on offense. When they need to come back, or later when the game is on the line, that's when they're great.

Loyola has been more consistent during the course of their games, sticking close enough to get a clutch jumper at the end. If this happens against Nevada, then the Wolf Pack might never go into their risky-offense mode and take it to the next level. Loyola would still have a chance to win at the end, but can they get lucky three times in a row?

It seems that sticking close to your opponent and getting lucky at the end is a better strategy than falling behind by double digits and having the mount a huge comeback. It also looked like Nevada was over-celebrating being in the Sweet Sixteen—as if they'd accomplished their goal. Loyola's players talked about how they want more.

Vegas Line:

Nevada by 2 1/2

Power rating: spread

Nevada by 5.2

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Nevada: 62.2%
Loyola-Chicago: 37.8%

Nevada is the the favorite, meaning Loyola will be the underdog for their third straight game.

Bottom line: What a mess. Who knows what dynamic this game will follow, given the craziness in both teams' first two tournament games. We can only assume—more craziness. That would mean Loyola getting the upset, I suppose.

Final prediction: Loyola-Chicago 71, Nevada 70

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 19, 2018 at 09:33 AM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

2018 NCAA Tournament Second Round Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (5) West Virginia vs. (13) Marshall

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

West Virginia Mountaineers
Seed: 5
Record: 25-10
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Marshall Thundering Herd
Seed: 13
Record: 25-10
Conference: C-USA

Date: Sunday, March 18
Time: 8:40 pm Eastern
Location: San Diego, CA
Region: East
Channel: TBS

Two schools located in West Virginia are playing in San Diego for the right to head all the way back to Boston.

West Virginia Marshall

Power Ratings

Strength:          #12     Strength:          #113
Pomeroy:           #14             Pomeroy:           #100
   Offense: #12                     Offense: #86
   Defense: #44                     Defense: #127
BPI:               #10             BPI:               #117
LRMC:    #10             LRMC:              #110

Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #349            Consistency:       #144
Schedule Strength: #25             Schedule Strength: #137
Tempo (Pomeroy): #127            Tempo: #7
AP Final Poll:     #15             AP Final Poll:     #NR
AP Pre-season:     #11             AP Pre-season:     #NR

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:    #22       Model Rank:    #57

As we've noted, West Virginia is a high-ranking team in power ratings, but their consistency is devilish. They're 3rd from the bottom in that stat (they were 2nd from the bottom until UMBC upset Virginia and took over that spot). If 4-seed Wichita State had advanced, then maybe that inconsistency—applied on the upside—could be a boon, but now that they're the favorite, they'd rather play at their average level. Since they have the advantage playing offense or defense, Marshall shouldn't be a big problem—but tell that to Wichita State.

Season overview: West Virginia

Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(8)Missouri+4, (1)Virginia+7, @(9)Kansas St.+8, (10)Oklahoma+13, (10)Texas+35, (9)Kansas St.+38, @(10)Oklahoma+2, (6)TCU+16, (3)Texas Tech+10, =(3)Texas Tech+3, =(12)Murray St.+17
Losses to tournament teams (8): =(7)Texas A&M-23, @(3)Texas Tech-1, (1)Kansas-5, @(6)TCU-9, (5)Kentucky-7, @(1)Kansas-8, @(10)Texas-OT, =(1)Kansas-11
Other losses (2): @Iowa St.-16, Oklahoma St.-3

Overview: West Virginia kicked off the season with a 23-point loss to 7-seed Texas A&M; two games later they took out their frustrations on Morgan State, 111-48. Other peaks in the chart above include game 19 (86-51 over 10-seed Texas) and #23 (89-51 over 9-seed Kansas State). Most of their tournament-team wins are over middling seeds, but they beat 1-seed Virginia, and beat 3-seed Texas Tech twice. They went 0-3 vs. 1-seed Kansas, however. Jevon Carter leads the team with a 17ppg average; he had 21 in the win over Murray State.

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Season overview: Marshall

Wins vs. tournament teams (2): (16)North Carolina Central+8, =(4)Wichita St.+6
Losses to tournament teams (1): @(1)Xavier-4
Other losses (9): @Morehead St.-3, @Illinois-17, @William & Mary-10, Western Kentucky-25, @Old Dominion-6, @Western Kentucky-11, @UTSA-4, Old Dominion-5, @UAB-14

Overview: If Marshall's first 7 games gave no indication they were an NCAA-bound team, their last four games sure did as they stormed the C-USA tournament. The best seed they beat was a 16-seed play-in team, but they only lost to 1-seed Xavier by 4 points. Now with the Wichita State win under their belt, they can claim to be good enough to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Marshall is one of very few teams, we presume, that has two players scoring over 20 point per game, Jon Elmore and CJ Burks. Elmore led with 27 in the win over the Shockers.

**************************************************************

Game Analysis: The Herd are one of the faster teams out there, and they can score. But West Virginia's offense is much more efficient, and their defense is a lot better—and a lot better than the Wichita State defense that Marshall had such fortune against. West Virginia has been Jekyl and Hyde this season, but that's due a lot to 5 or 6 outlier games more than general hit and miss playing.

Vegas Line:

West Virginia by 12 1/2

Power rating: spread

West Virginia by 14.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

West Virginia: 82.7%
Marshall: 17.3%

A general agreement exists that WVA should be a double-digit favorite, and win about 4 of 5 times. This matches with the historical win percentage for 5 seeds over 13 seeds (80%).

Bottom line: It's been a while since West Virginia had a major downside game—or a huge upside game either. Mostly their vacilation has been between "very good" and "not too bad." Either one should be good enough to beat Marshall, even if the latter continues to play inspired. We were prepared to take the Mountaineers over Wichita State, so advancing them in this case should be a given.

Final prediction: West Virginia 85, Marshall 81

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.

Posted on March 17, 2018 at 02:36 PM in Game previews, NCAA tournament | Permalink | Comments (0)

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March 2018

March 25, 2018

2018 NCAA Tournament Final Four Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Villanova vs. (1) Kansas

2018 NCAA Tournament Final Four Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (3) Michigan vs. (11) Loyola-Chicago

March 24, 2018

2018 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Kansas vs. (2) Duke

2018 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Villanova vs. (3) Texas Tech

March 23, 2018

2018 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (3) Michigan vs. (9) Florida State

2018 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (9) Kansas State vs. (11) Loyola Chicago

March 20, 2018

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (2) Purdue vs. (3) Texas Tech

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (2) Duke vs. (11) Syracuse

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Villanova vs. (5) West Virginia

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Kansas vs. (5) Clemson

March 19, 2018

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (4) Gonzaga vs. (9) Florida State

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (5) Kentucky vs. (9) Kansas State

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (3) Michigan vs. (7) Texas A&M

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (7) Nevada vs. (11) Loyola-Chicago

March 17, 2018

2018 NCAA Tournament Second Round Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (5) West Virginia vs. (13) Marshall