2018 NCAA Tournament Second Round Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (4) Auburn vs. (5) Clemson

All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule

Auburn Tigers
Seed: 4
Record: 26-7
Conference: SEC

vs.

Clemson Tigers
Seed: 5
Record: 24-9
Conference: ACC

vs.

Date: Sunday, March 18
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Location: San Diego, CA 
Region: Midwest
Channel: TBS

 

The Auburn Tigers vs. the Clemson Tigers.

     Auburn                             Clemson

Power Ratings

Strength:          #16             Strength:          #22
Pomeroy:           #17             Pomeroy:           #19
   Offense:  #19                      Offense:  #45
   Defense:  #31                      Defense:  #9
BPI:               #19             BPI:               #18
LRMC:              #17             LRMC:              #24


Other Rankings:

Consistency:       #155            Consistency:       #41
Schedule Strength: #53             Schedule Strength: #31   
Tempo (Pomeroy):   #19             Tempo:             #287
AP Final Poll:     #19             AP Final Poll:     #20
AP Pre-season:     #NR             AP Pre-season:     #NR

SportsRatings Genetic Model:

Model Rank:        #14             Model Rank:        #20

With updated power rating numbers (except the LRMC), 5-seed Clemson is pretty close to 4-seed Auburn, even ahead now in the BPI. Both defenses are better than the corresponding offenses, Auburn having the better offense and Clemson the better D. Neither team is terribly inconsistent, but the and the biggest difference between the two is tempo. Auburn wants to play very fast while Clemson is fairly leisurely. Auburn's fast tempo makes it even more important that they're short-handed right now.

Season overview: Auburn

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): @(12)Murray St.+4, @(3)Tennessee+10, (7)Arkansas+11, @(8)Missouri+18, (5)Kentucky+10, (9)Alabama+19, =(13)College of Charleston+4
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @(9)Alabama-5, (7)Texas A&M-1, @(6)Florida-6, @(7)Arkansas-9, =(9)Alabama-18
• Other losses (2): =Temple-14, @South Carolina-9

Overview: A late-season slump kept Auburn from potentially being as high as a 2-seed. Losing 6 of your last 15 games isn't a collapse by any means, nor is losing 3 of your last 4. It is a concern, though all 3 losses were to tournament teams (6-seed Florida, 7-seed Arkansas, 9-seed Alabama). Mustapha Heron and Bryce Brown both average 16 ppg. Losing a great defensive player in Anfernee McLemore hurts, cutting Auburn down to a squad of 8, and they've played relatively poorly since, including the Charleston win where Mustapha Heron led with 16.

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Season overview: Clemson

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (16)Texas Southern+7, @(5)Ohio St.+14, @(6)Florida+2, (9)North Carolina St.+16, (6)Miami FL+9, (2)North Carolina+4, (9)Florida St.+13, =(12)New Mexico St.+11
  
• Losses to tournament teams (8): @(9)North Carolina St.-1, @(2)North Carolina-8, @(1)Virginia-25, @(9)Florida St.-OT, (2)Duke-9, @(8)Virginia Tech-7, @(11)Syracuse-3, =(1)Virginia-6
• Other losses (1): =Temple-7

Overview: With Clemson, what you see is what you get for the most part; win or lose, they play about the same, as can be seen in their last 8 games. They were consistent to a fault even as they went 4-4 down the stretch. That will happen with good defensive teams who play a slow pace—it evens things out. On offense the Tigers are pretty non-descript but they make their free throws, which can smooth out the rough edges of an offense. With four players in double figures, there's always someone to pick up the slack, too (they had 5 until Donte Grantham tore his ACL). Shelton Mitchell led the Tigers with 23 points against New Mexico State, and Gabe DeVoe added 22.

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Game Analysis:  Since Clemson lost Donte Grantham they've been about 1.2 points worse. Auburn has played 6 games since losing Anfernee McLemore, and since that they've been 5.9 points worse. The difference is that Clemson has had time (14 games) to adjust, while Auburn is down to a very small squad—there's only so much adjusting you can do with 8 players.

Vegas Line:

Auburn by    1 1/2

Power rating: spread

Auburn by    0.8

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Auburn:         52.7% 
Clemson:        47.3% 

Both Vegas and Strength favor Auburn—using figures for the full season, in the case of our power rating. It's a little surprising to see Auburn even favored by 1 1/2, frankly, given their short-handed state and their narrow win over a 13-seed. 4-seeds beat 5-seeds about 56% of the time, so giving about 53% odds to Auburn is fair.

Bottom line:  Given Auburn's poor performance over the last month, we have to go with Clemson in the minor upset.

Final prediction:  Clemson 75, Auburn 70

More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.