Murray State (25-5) was the first big upset victim in the conference tournaments and yesterday Iona (26-8) joined them as the 2nd. Both teams had great seasons but probably not good enough to make the NCAA field as at-large bids. Meanwhile Wofford (26-6) dodged a bullet to gain an automatic bid.
Here's how these teams ranked in the overall picture before yesterday's action:
| # | Proj Seed |
Team | Conference | Div I record |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
STR rank |
Wins comp |
Dance Chance |
Seed Chg |
| 58 | 12 | Iona | Metro Atl | 26-7 | 17-3 | 49 | 93 | -8.5 | 31.6 | +1 |
| 59 | Richmond | Atlantic 10 | 19-12 | 12-6 | 54 | 63 | -4.5 | 30.6 | ||
| 60 | Louisiana Tech | C-USA | 23-7 | 15-3 | 53 | 82 | -6.5 | 30.0 | ||
| 61 | 13 | Buffalo | MAC | 21-9 | 12-6 | 30 | 61 | -7.0 | 29.4 | -1 |
| 62 | Valparaiso | Horizon | 24-5 | 13-3 | 59 | 71 | -8.0 | 26.5 | ||
| 63 | 13 | Wofford | Southern | 25-6 | 16-2 | 48 | 114 | -3.0 | 23.5 | |
| 64 | Murray St. | Ohio Valley | 25-5 | 16-0 | 67 | 81 | -6.0 | 22.7 |
Given that the bubble bursts at position #47, Iona was the 10th team out before their loss (really, the 11th but Syracuse is ahead of them an ineligible). But the Gaels lost 79-69 to the 19-13 Manhattan Jaspers, who are #163 in the Dance Chance. The Jaspers will probably get a 16-seed, which means a number of teams will get a seeding upgrade due to the result.
One beneficiary might be Wofford, who turned back an upset bid from 11-22 Furman, 67-64. Had the Paladins—ranked #308—prevailed, they too would have been a 16-seed and the lowest-ranked team in the field. Instead, the Terriers are in play for the 12-seed that Iona gave up.
Iona will probably drop to around where Murray State is. The racers were 16-0 in conference but their #67 RPI is a drawback, as is their -6.0 Wins Composite which shows that they didn't beat many good teams. The Gaels are even worst there, -8.5 even before another bad loss, but their #49 RPI is good enough to garner a 2nd look. However, after their loss, that fell to around #53.
That's the conundrum that 1-bid leagues face. Even if their best team plays well enough to be considered for an at-large bid, a loss in their conference championship is usually enough to drop them farther back in the bubble. So the only way to be worthy of an at-large bid...is to win the conference tournament.
That's the position that Old Dominion and Stephen F. Austin find themselves in right now:
| # | Proj Seed |
Team | Conference | Div I record |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
STR rank |
Wins comp |
Dance Chance |
Seed Chg |
| 47 | 12 | Mississippi | SEC | 20-11 | 11-7 | 51 | 46 | -2.0 | 52.5 | |
| 48 | Indiana | Big Ten | 19-12 | 9-9 | 58 | 38 | 3.0 | 48.8 | ||
| 49 | 12 | Stephen F. Austin | Southland | 24-4 | 17-1 | 44 | 55 | -1.0 | 48.2 | |
| 50 | Tulsa | American | 21-8 | 14-4 | 47 | 79 | -2.5 | 47.1 | ||
| 51 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 19-12 | 11-7 | 52 | 54 | -3.0 | 45.9 | ||
| 52 | Miami FL | ACC | 20-11 | 10-8 | 63 | 40 | -2.5 | 44.4 | ||
| 53 | 12 | Old Dominion | C-USA | 24-6 | 13-5 | 36 | 67 | -3.0 | 44.1 | |
| 54 | Illinois | Big Ten | 19-12 | 9-9 | 62 | 30 | -1.0 | 43.0 |
Ole Miss is our last team in, and Indiana is first team out. Stephen F. Austin is currently 2nd team out, and with two wins in the Southland tournament, they would probably be above 50% for an at-large bid that they wouldn't need as tourney champs. But if they lose, that would knock them back into the First or Second Four Out. The same goes for Old Dominion, who will play three games if they reach the C-USA final. Three more wins would likely put the Monarchs above 50% for an at-large bid, but two wins and a loss would leave them roughly where they started, above 6 teams out.
The teams above have a much better at-large chance than Murray State and Iona. Those two never quite had the résumé despite their great conference records. But S.F. Austin's RPI is 44, and Old Dominion's is a stellar #36. Buffalo from the MAC is #30! Those are numbers that will make the Committee take a 2nd look, but ultimately it's pretty rare when they give a break to one of these teams if they don't have some good wins. Stephen F. Austin's relative lack of bad losses helps, but Old Dominion has some good wins (LSU, Richmond, VCU) to give them hope.
But in the end the only way to guarantee your spot is to win your conference tournament. Iona and Murray State blew their chance to score a knockout, and now they've "left it to the judges," who by and large aren't very sympatheic to their cause.
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