All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Oregon Ducks
Seed: 8
Record: 25-9
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Seed: 9
Record: 18-13
Conference: Big Twelve
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 6:50 pm Eastern
Location: Omaha, NE
Region: West
Channel: TBS
A great football game for September also makes for a good basketball game in March.
Oregon Oklahoma State
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #54 Strength: #31
Median play: #43 Median play: #33
Road/Neutral Rank: #61 Road/Neutral Rank: #42
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#56 Sagarin: #31
Pomeroy: #46 Pomeroy: #37
Offense: #16 Offense: #49
Defense: #134 Defense: #58
LRMC: #57 LRMC: #48
BPI: #47 BPI: #48
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #47 2nd half/season: #37
Last 6 games: #33 Last 6 games: #69
Injury correction: #51 Injury correction: #30
Consistency: #109 Consistency: #194
Deep Run Rank: #33 Deep Run Rank: #32
Best Shot: #46 Best Shot: #30
Schedule Strength: #54 Schedule Strength: #5
8- vs. 9- matchups are always interesting. In this case, Oklahoma State, the 9-seed, ranks better in most of the power ratings, with a fairly big lead in Strength and Sagarin, and a smaller lead in Pomeroy. The BPI has them almost dead even, with Oregon one spot ahead. The difference is due to Oklahoma State's late-season losses, which affect the BPI most of all and are reflected in the "2nd half of season" rank, which looks a lot like Pomeroy, and the "Last 6 games" metric which puts Oregon well ahead.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): UC Irvine+OT, UCLA+18, Utah+11, =Utah+3
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =VCU-14, Mississippi-6, Arizona-18, @Arizona-34, @UCLA-9, =Arizona-28
- Other losses (3): =Michigan-7, @Washington St.-OT, @Washington-8
Key Info: Midway through the season Oregon was a non-descript team that probably wouldn't make the tournament at 12-6 after losing 3 of 5 in the Pac-12, including an 80-62 home loss to Arizona. Two games later they walloped UCLA 82-64, and after failing badly again vs. Arizona they turned it up, going 9-1 to finish the regular season. They added two Pac-12 tournament wins—including Utah—before getting walloped again by Arizona, 80-52. The Ducks had gone from an average team that occasionally played well, to a good team that occasionally gaffes (usually against Arizona). Joseph Young (20.2ppg) is one of the nation's leading scorers on a great offense, but defense is lacking.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): Texas+11, Baylor+11, @Texas+OT, Kansas+5, @Baylor+9
- Losses to tournament teams (9): Maryland-9, @Iowa St.-2, @Kansas-10, @Oklahoma-17, Oklahoma-8, Iowa St.-5, West Virginia-10, @West Virginia-9, =Oklahoma-15
- Other losses (4): @South Carolina-26, @Kansas St.-10, @TCU-15, @Texas Tech-1
Key Info: Oklahoma State started off, once again, like gangbusters against an easy schedule until they were tripped up by South Carolina, 75-49. They went right back to winning big but lost to Maryland at home and needed overtime to beat Missouri. When the Big Twelve season started the losses piled up, but against great teams for the most part. Their last gasp of greatness was a 3-game stretch in which they beat Texas on the road, Kansas at home, and Baylor on the road. After that the Pokes lost six of their last seven, beating only TCU at home. The Cowboy offense relies heavily on Le'Bryan Nash and Phil Forte III, who combine for 33 of Oklahoma State's 67 point average.
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Game Analysis: Here we have two teams going in opposite directions: Oregon winning 9 of its last 11, Oklahoma State losing 6 of its last 7. For the year the Cowboys are better; for the last 1/3 of the season it's no contest, Ducks all the way.
Oregon did close with a terrible game, yet another loss to Arizona. But they're not playing Arizona and they don't have to worry about the Wildcats now. They're 25-6 against teams other than Arizona, and 13-1 since January 22 against teams that are not Arizona.
Oklahoma State's psyche can't be too good right now after so many defeats. No matter how good they know they can be, they haven't seen it in a while, and that tends to latch onto a team. Since early December they actually have a losing record—11-13— and they're 7-11 since early January. The worse is the 1-6 mark in their last 7 games; that's the one that will resonate.
Vegas Line:
Oregon by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Oklahoma State by 2.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Oregon: 41.6%
Oklahoma St: 58.4%
It's not surprising the line started with Oklahoma State a slight favorite, since Vegas and the Strength power rating generally agree on the winner. And it's not surprising that soon after that, the line shifted to Oregon given the teams' recent histories. Considering all games of the season, the Cowboys are a solid favorite at nearly 60%—but how many of those games are relevant? Certainly the first half of each team's season is unrepresentative of their current level of play.
Bottom line: Oregon is playing well, Oklahoma State is playing terribly. Unless the Cowboys put on Arizona U. jerseys the Ducks should win.
Final prediction: Oregon 78, Oklahoma State 70
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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