All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
North Carolina State Wolfpack
Seed: 8
Record: 20-13
Conference: ACC
vs.
LSU Tigers
Seed: 9
Record: 22-10
Conference: SEC
Date: Thursday, March 19
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Region: East
Channel: TBS
Two teams with up-and-down seasons secured their bids with big wins and hope to advance.
NC State LSU
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #32 Strength: #50
Median play: #21 Median play: #51
Road/Neutral Rank: #47 Road/Neutral Rank: #31
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#34 Sagarin: #50
Pomeroy: #38 Pomeroy: #43
Offense: #30 Offense: #75
Defense: #89 Defense: #37
LRMC: #33 LRMC: #36
BPI: #37 BPI: #41
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #25 2nd half/season: #31
Last 6 games: #37 Last 6 games: #45
Injury correction: #32 Injury correction: #50
Consistency: #305 Consistency: #276
Deep Run Rank: #45 Deep Run Rank: #46
Best Shot: #22 Best Shot: #34
Schedule Strength: #23 Schedule Strength: #75
When NC State has the ball, you're watching much better basketball than when LSU has possession, but the teams are fairly evenly matched on both sides. In general, the Wolfpack outrank the Tigers across the board, most notably in their median level of play, while Pomeroy, LRMC, and BPI have the teams a closer match. Both teams improved in the 2nd half of the season, but took a step backward recently. The main thing pointing to an LSU win is their road/neutral play, where they basically switch rankings with the Wolfpack.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): Boise St.+6, Duke+12, @Louisville+9, @North Carolina+12
- Losses to tournament teams (9): @Purdue-5, Wofford-1, =West Virginia-14, Cincinnati-16, @Virginia-10, North Carolina-2, Notre Dame-OT, Virginia-4, =Duke-24
- Other losses (4): @Miami FL-5, Clemson-11, @Wake Forest-4, @Boston College-16
Key Info: At 14-11, things didn't look good. NC State was coming off what could have been a 6-game losing streak (they beat Georgia Tech in overtime) and they had Louisville and UNC coming up. But over that 6-game stretch there were some bright spots: they lost by just 5 at Miami, took Notre Dame into overtime, and fell to Virginia by just 4 points. The next three games were critical for NC State's NCAA bid: they upset Louisville on the road, and two games later did the same to North Carolina. In all they won 6 of their last 8, but the two losses were pretty bad (BC by 16, Duke by 24) so some questions remain. A trio of guards leads the Wolfpack, with Trevor Lacey emerging as scoring leader with 15.8 ppg.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): @West Virginia+1, @UAB+9, Georgia+OT, @Mississippi+4, Mississippi+10, @Arkansas+3
- Losses to tournament teams (1): Kentucky-2
- Other losses (9): =Old Dominion-9, =Clemson-3, @Missouri-OT, Texas A&M-3, @Mississippi St.-6, Auburn-4, @Texas A&M-6, Tennessee-15, =Auburn-OT
Key Info: LSU is a remarkable 6-1 against tournament teams. Unfortunately they're an unremarkable 16-9 against non-tournament teams. Perhaps most impressive about the former is the 2-point loss to Kentucky. Almost all of their losses were close losses, with only Tennessee winning in double digits. The same can be said about their best wins, too. Four Tigers score in double figures to account for 3/4 of their scoring; forwards Jarell Martin (16.9 ppg) and Jordan Mickey (15.5ppg) combine for 19 rebounds per game, about half their total.
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Game Analysis: It's LSU's dynamic frontcourt duo vs. NC State's backcourt trio. LSU has a big edge with Martin and Mickey around the basket, but North Carolina State clearly has the better guard play. If NC State makes their 3s, the game goes their way, otherwise LSU's very reliable inside play will rule the day.
Against the best teams (5-seeds or better), both fared well at times. NC State scored three big upsets and LSU beat Arkansas and West Virginia and almost beat Kentucky. Against lesser tournament-level teams, LSU went 4-0 and NC State 0-3. But the Tigers had 9 losses to non-tournament teams. Both showed they could win big games on the road, too.
Vegas Line:
NC State by 2
Power rating: spread
NC State by 2.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
NC State: 55.7%
LSU: 44.3%
The oddsmakers and Strength power rating are in complete agreement here with NC State favored by 2. An 8-9 game has been a virtual tossup in the last 30 years, but here NC State is slightly more likely to win.
Bottom line: Once again we have two inconsistent teams we have to pick from. Both have had their moments in the sun, and both have lost many games against teams they should have beaten. What impresses us about LSU is how they play everyone close. Both teams run hot and cold in terms of winning games, but NC State is more fire and ice; LSU hangs with everyone. If we're looking for a bit of consistency, that's all we can find.
Final prediction: LSU 70, NC State 67
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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