All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Cincinnati Bearcats
Seed: 8
Record: 22-10
Conference: American
vs.
Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 9
Record: 21-12
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Thursday, March 19
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Location: Louisville, KY
Region: Midwest
Channel: CBS
An interesting 8 vs. 9 matchup, pitting Purdue's giant frontcourt vs. Cincinnati's tough D.
Cincinnati Purdue
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #56 Strength: #39
Median play: #58 Median play: #23
Road/Neutral Rank: #44 Road/Neutral Rank: #40
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#52 Sagarin: #37
Pomeroy: #34 Pomeroy: #49
Offense: #76 Offense: #57
Defense: #18 Defense: #69
LRMC: #43 LRMC: #42
BPI: #45 BPI: #39
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #60 2nd half/season: #29
Last 6 games: #28 Last 6 games: #52
Injury correction: #56 Injury correction: #38
Consistency: #287 Consistency: #228
Deep Run Rank: #48 Deep Run Rank: #37
Best Shot: #35 Best Shot: #31
Schedule Strength: #99 Schedule Strength: #53
There couldn't be much more disagreement about these nearby seeds. It's not that the power ratings disagree, but that many of them are so sure that one team is better. Strength goes to Purdue by 17 spots. Sagarin agrees, 15 spots. Pomeroy says no, Cincy by 15 places. The BPI goes with Purdue, but narrowly, and the LRMC basically punts. Even some of the derivatives of Strength are in disagreement: Purdue was much better over the 2nd half of the year, but in the last six games, those rankings reverse. A lot of these schizophrenic numbers might be explained by Purdue's #23 ranking in median game play, a big jump from their #39 mean average. There were a lot of downside outliers during Purdue's season, and how each rating handles those makes a difference.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): San Diego St.+OT, @North Carolina St.+16, SMU+6, @SMU+8
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =Mississippi-12, VCU-21, Xavier-2
- Other losses (7): @Nebraska-OT, @Connecticut-6, @Memphis-13, @East Carolina-4, @Temple-16, Tulane-1, @Connecticut-3
Key Info: How focused on defense are the Bearcats? Only one player—Octavius Ellis—averages in double figures, and he's at 10.03125 ppg. Playing at the 11th slowest tempo in the nation doesn't help those numbers, either, but it's clear that defense is a priority for Cincy. That, and the slow tempo, hasn't helped them play more consistent basketball, as their chart is pretty spikey. But following two awful losses—75-59 to Temple, and 50-49 at home to Tulane—the Bearcats found some relative stability, winning five straight before the loss to UConn in the AAC tournament.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =BYU+OT, North Carolina St.+5, Iowa+4, Indiana+16, Ohio St.+2, @Indiana+4
- Losses to tournament teams (7): North Florida-3, =Notre Dame-31, @Wisconsin-7, Maryland-9, @Ohio St.-4, @Michigan St.-6, =Wisconsin-20
- Other losses (5): =Kansas St.-9, @Vanderbilt-10, Gardner Webb-5, @Illinois-9, @Minnesota-4
Key Info: The myth of Purdue's season goes like this: the Boilermakers were terrible, then they got good, and it happened just soon enough to slip into the tournament. The reality is that Purdue played some of their best basketball early, doubling Samford's score, beating BYU on a neutral court, edging NC State, and beating Arkansas State by 41. They also lost to Kansas State and North Florida in that 10-game span. But the worst was yet to come as the Boilers were destroyed by Notre Dame, then humbled at home by Gardner-Webb. They started the Big Ten season 3-3, making them 11-8 overall at that point. The win over Iowa was a turning point, kicking off a stretch where they won 8 of 9. They still couldn't beat the top teams in the conference, but it was quite a turnaround from mid-season. Purdue has two 7-foot centers; AJ Hammons leads the team with 11.8 points and 6.5 rebounds, while freshman Isaac Hass is nearly 300 pounds.
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Game Analysis: Does Purdue have an offense that can deal with Cincy's defense? And do the Bearcats have a lineup that can challenge Purdue's size?
The first answer depends on the 2nd. Purdue's offense isn't great, and Cincinnati holds teams to a low field goal percentage. If Purdue's inside game is particularly effective, they can increase that percentage. Cincinnati answers Purdue's 7-footers with two 6-10 players: leading scorer Ellis and a 270 pound center. So the answers to both questions is, maybe. It could come down to whoever has their big men in foul trouble. Each team generally plays their bigs one at a time, not both at once.
Since their loss to Gardner-Webb, the Boilermakers have been pretty strong and haven't lost to a bad team. Cincinnati lost twice in February to similar teams, and almost again to South Florida. If the clash in styles brings out the worst in both teams, Purdue seems to have left their worse side behind more than the Bearcats.
Vegas Line:
Purdue by 1
Power rating: spread
Purdue by 2.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Cincinnati: 40.6%
Purdue: 59.4%
It's not a surprise when a 9-seed is favored over an 8-seed; after all, 9-seed have won more of these matches, 61-59 since 1985. Our Strength power rating gives Purdue a 3 in 5 chance of winning, but the other power ratings have their own take (Pomeroy favors Cincy by 2 points, for example).
Bottom line: Who knows what is going to happen in this game? It's a weird matchup. Just like styles make fights in boxing, sometimes in basketball styles determine outcomes. We're ignoring that and focusing on Purdue's improvement as the tiebreaker in a tough-to-call contest.
Final prediction: Purdue 60, Cincinnati 58
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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