All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Wichita State Shockers
Seed: 7
Record: 28-4
Conference: Missouri Valley
vs.
Indiana Hoosiers
Seed: 10
Record: 20-13
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 2:45 pm Eastern
Location: Omaha, NE
Region: Midwest
Channel: CBS
Wichita State was a 1-seed last year, and Indiana was a 1-seed in 2013. This year they enter the tournament as 7- and 10-seeds.
Wichita State Indiana
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #21 Strength: #36
Median play: #26 Median play: #36
Road/Neutral Rank: #29 Road/Neutral Rank: #34
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#19 Sagarin: #41
Pomeroy: #14 Pomeroy: #53
Offense: #20 Offense: #10
Defense: #15 Defense: #216
LRMC: #17 LRMC: #41
BPI: #13 BPI: #46
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #20 2nd half/season: #30
Last 6 games: #25 Last 6 games: #46
Injury correction: #20 Injury correction: #41
Consistency: #76 Consistency: #246
Deep Run Rank: #12 Deep Run Rank: #39
Best Shot: #32 Best Shot: #29
Schedule Strength: #116 Schedule Strength: #71
The main thing that stands out here is Wichita State's balance in offensive and defensive efficiency, reflective of a complete game, while Indiana's defense is atrocious. Offense wins games, too, but come on, #216 ? It's pretty certain that number was once quite a bit better, before Indiana went on their late-season slide.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): New Mexico St.+17, Northern Iowa+14
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @Utah-OT, @Northern Iowa-16
- Other losses (2): =George Washington-6, =Illinois St.-3
Key Info: Like conference-mate Northern Iowa, with whom they swapped blowouts (that sounds dirty?), the Shockers (that sounds dirty, too) won a lot of games, but the key games were few and far between on their schedule. They only played New Mexico State and Utah among other tournament-bound teams, and only lost to George Washington and Illinois State otherwise. The latter game came in the MVC tournament and contributed to their disappointing seed. Wichita State's top four scorers are holdover's from last year's team, with Ron Baker averaging 15 points per game.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): Texas Southern+19, SMU+6, =Butler+9, Ohio St.+3, Maryland+19
- Losses to tournament teams (12): Eastern Washington-2, =Louisville-20, =Georgetown-OT, @Michigan St.-20, @Ohio St.-12, @Purdue-16, @Wisconsin-14, @Maryland-2, Purdue-4, Iowa-14, Michigan St.-2, =Maryland-6
- Other losses (1): @Northwestern-7
Key Info: Indiana started the season 15-4. Some of those 4 losses were pretty bad, such as losing to Eastern Washington at home, and to Louisville and Michigan State by 20 points each. But there were good wins, too, like beating Butler on a neutral court, and smashing Maryland 89-70. The win over the Terps was right before the crash, when Indiana went 5-9 to finish the season. There were bright spots even then, such as beating Minnesota 90-71 and Rutgers 84-54, but none of the 5 wins was over a tournament team. To be fair, 8 of the 9 losses were to tourney-bound teams, and they avenged the loss to Northwestern. Still, losing 9 of 14 is hard to swallow. Indiana's offense hasn't been a problem, as Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon Jr. combine for nearly 32 points per game.
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Game Analysis: Neither team ended the season on a high note. Wichita State lost in the tournament and generally didn't play well in either MVC tournament game. It's like once they beat Northern Iowa in the rematch their job for the season was over.
Indiana had it much worse. The Hoosiers finished 5-9 in a classic end-of-season "collapse." Like Iowa last year, their defense disappeared and they couldn't buy a win, even at home. They still managed to summon up a few great performances, but not against great competition. Fans got surly, to say the least, booing their team after several home losses.
There's not much comparison between the two seasons. Teams that have a slide like Indiana almost never win their first-round NCAA tournament game.
Vegas Line:
Wichita State by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
Wichita State by 2.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Wichita State: 57.6%
Indiana: 42.4%
This is one of the few games where the Vegas line is higher than the Strength power rating's spread. The reason is Indiana's collapse. The Strength power rating and the game-comparison % system use all games of the season equally, and Indiana in late-season form was hardly equal to its early-season self. The spread using the games since Indiana's slide started would be 4 points, and given the Hoosiers' trajectory it's not surprising it was put even higher.
Bottom line: Indiana still has a chance to pull out a great game, but Wichita State's consistency and balance should overcome even a game Hoosiers effort.
Final prediction: Wichita State 74, Indiana 70
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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