All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
VCU Rams
Seed: 7
Record: 26-9
Conference: Atlantic 10
vs.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Seed: 10
Record: 23-10
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Thursday, March 19
Time: 4:40 pm Eastern
Location: Portland, OR
Region: West
Channel: TNT
A great 7-10 matchup between programs that have both reached a Final Four in the last four years. Only one will make the Round of 32 this season.
VCU Ohio State
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #30 Strength: #10
Median play: #37 Median play: #18
Road/Neutral Rank: #27 Road/Neutral Rank: #32
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#36 Sagarin: #11
Pomeroy: #30 Pomeroy: #21
Offense: #61 Offense: #29
Defense: #23 Defense: #40
LRMC: #25 LRMC: #16
BPI: #26 BPI: #17
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #55 2nd half/season: #16
Last 6 games: #56 Last 6 games: #31
Injury correction: #43 Injury correction: #9
Consistency: #282 Consistency: #325
Deep Run Rank: #42 Deep Run Rank: #22
Best Shot: #23 Best Shot: #7
Schedule Strength: #39 Schedule Strength: #72
The 10-seed holds the advantage according to every power rating surveyed. But Ohio State hasn't had good luck this year winning games. Meanwhile, VCU's injury correction, and 2nd-half-of-season numbers tell the story of a team that isn't nearly as effective without one of their key players. Those two facts explain why both teams are low in consistency. Both do well in the Best Shot ranking, which assumes every team plays its very best. The Deep Run Rank numbers are less promising for both teams, since they factor in the ability to win over a longer stretch of games.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =Oregon+14, Northern Iowa+OT, Belmont+27, @Cincinnati+21, Davidson+6, =Davidson+20, =Dayton+6
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =Villanova-24, Virginia-17, Dayton-4, @Davidson-27
- Other losses (5): @Old Dominion-6, Richmond-9, @St. Bonaventure-2, La Salle-OT, @Richmond-OT
Key Info: VCU was one of the better teams in the country through late January; they had beaten 5 tournament teams including 5-seed Northern Iowa and 8-seed Cincinnati and Oregon. Then in a loss to Richmond, Briante Weber—the nation's best at steals and a key part of VCU's "Havoc" defense—tore his ACL and was lost for the season. The Rams lost 5 of their next 9 games and looked headed for total collapse, but the team turned things around late and beat Davidson and Dayton to win the Atlantic 10 title. Treveon Graham (16.3 ppg, 7.0 rebounds) is the team's offensive key but the defense still misses Weber's 4 steals per game. It looks like they might have finally adjusted to not having him, however.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): Indiana+12, Maryland+24, Purdue+4
- Losses to tournament teams (9): @Louisville-9, =North Carolina-8, Iowa-6, @Indiana-3, @Iowa-9, @Purdue-2, @Michigan St.-3, Wisconsin-24, =Michigan St.-9
- Other losses (1): @Michigan-7
Key Info: Ohio State had some dominant performances early—beating Sacred Heart 106-48, and High Point 97-43. But against quality teams—Louisville, North Carolina—the Buckeyes fell short. And they continued to do so in the Big Ten, leaving them with just 3 tournament-team wins in 12 tries. They avoided bad losses, falling just once at home (to Wisconsin) but their road play was terrible by comparison. One of their issues is that they are somewhat of a 1-man team, with freshman sensation D'Angelo Russell (19.3 ppg, 5.6 rebounds, 5.1 assists) having to do it all. And when he can't—or teams can key on him and stop him—they can't beat a superior, well-rounded opponent. But when Russell is hitting his shots there's not a better player in the country, and players like him can sometimes lift a team to new heights in the post-season.
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Game Analysis: Ohio State can be a great team, but that doesn't necesasarily show up at crunch time, or against the best teams. VCU was a great team, but they lost Briante Weber. They might have recaptured most of their quality, however, and it might be enough to beat the Buckeyes.
Neither team can really claim a great win—in fact, neither can conclusively say they've beaten a team as good as their first round opponent. VCU's win over Northern Iowa might count, depending on what rating you use. And Ohio State beat Maryland—are the Terps as good as VCU?
Both teams are looking for their best win, basically. Ohio State's problem—they are worse against good teams—stacks up against VCU's problem—they aren't the same without Weber. The teams' charts tell a different story: VCU looks a bit rejuvinated after a bad spell, while Ohio State appears tired of all the losing. The Buckeyes also play poorly on the road compared to the Rams.
Vegas Line:
Ohio State by 3
Power rating: spread
Ohio State by 6.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
VCU: 34.0%
OSU: 66.0%
The oddsmakers believe in the Buckeyes, as does the Strength power rating—its full-season survey spots the Buckeyes a touchdown. Instead of the normal 39% chance a 10-seed has, it gives Ohio State roughly a 2/3 chance of winning.
Bottom line: There are reasons to pick Ohio State, and reasons to pick VCU. No matter what the outcome, you can point at something and say "yeah, I should have listened to [this rating, or that fact]". Recent play is one thing that points VCU's way (over the last 1-5 games) or Ohio State's way (last 6 games, or 2nd half of the season) pretty conclusively. If you believe the Rams have gotten over Weber's absence you should pick them; if you think D'Angelo Russell will shine, you should take the Buckeyes. We think both will happen, but we're changing our pick to VCU because the team trajectories outweight individual greatness; the Rams are again playing as a team while OSU has struggled to do so all year.
Final prediction: VCU 73, Ohio State 69
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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