All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 7
Record: 23-11
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Georgia Bulldogs
Seed: 10
Record: 21-11
Conference: SEC
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 12:40 pm Eastern
Location: Charlotte, NC
Region: East
Channel: truTV
This would make a great bowl game, but it's not a bad first-round NCAA matchup either.
Michigan State Georgia
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #17 Strength: #41
Median play: #13 Median play: #40
Road/Neutral Rank: #10 Road/Neutral Rank: #33
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#17 Sagarin: #38
Pomeroy: #17 Pomeroy: #36
Offense: #14 Offense: #74
Defense: #53 Defense: #28
LRMC: #15 LRMC: #39
BPI: #18 BPI: #29
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #18 2nd half/season: #42
Last 6 games: #10 Last 6 games: #26
Injury correction: #15 Injury correction: #39
Consistency: #241 Consistency: #84
Deep Run Rank: #19 Deep Run Rank: #28
Best Shot: #16 Best Shot: #43
Schedule Strength: #24 Schedule Strength: #21
The Spartans are a strong 7-seed and overwhelm the Bulldogs in the power ratings. They rank anywhere from #15 to #18 and if you ignore a few awful games (use the Median rank) they're even better, and play well on the road. Georgia is accurately seeded as a 10-seed, and can claim to have better defense than the Spartans but not nearly as good of an offense. Both teams have raised their level of play lately and both faced very tough schedules.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): Indiana+20, @Iowa+14, Ohio St.+3, Purdue+6, @Indiana+2, =Ohio St.+9, =Maryland+4
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =Duke-10, =Kansas-5, @Notre Dame-OT, Texas Southern-OT, Maryland-OT, @Maryland-16, @Wisconsin-7, =Wisconsin-OT
- Other losses (3): @Nebraska-2, Illinois-5, Minnesota-OT
Key Info: While this ended up being an "off year" for the Spartans, they were really a good team that played very inconsistent basketball, with no better example than the home loss to Texas Southern. The Tigers made the tournament, which should ease the embarrassment a bit, but at the time they were just 1-8. The recovery came in fits and starts, losing twice to Maryland and to Nebraska. It wasn't until the Big Ten tournament that things looked completely all right, with a 2nd win over Ohio State and finally beating Maryland. The Spartans almost had Wisconsin but let them escape. They didn't win any of their big pre-conference games against Duke, Kansas, or Notre Dame. Guards Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine stepped up for the scoring honors this year at over 14 ppg apiece.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): Mississippi+5, @Mississippi+4
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =Gonzaga-12, Arkansas-4, @LSU-OT, @Kentucky-11, Kentucky-8, =Arkansas-11
- Other losses (5): @Georgia Tech-7, =Minnesota-4, @South Carolina-17, Auburn-1, South Carolina-6
Key Info: Georgia has their share of bad losses, losing to South Carolina 67-50 (game 20), and the back to back losses to Auburn and South Carolina at home (24, 25). Some of their wins weren't pretty either (they needed 3 overtimes to beat Mercer at home) and they only beat one tournament team—Ole Miss—all year. On the other hand didn't embarrass themselves in the five games against 1-seed Kentucky, 2-seed Gonzaga, and 5-seed Arkansas. Five Bulldogs more or less score in double figures, with senior Marcus Thornton the leader at 12.3 ppg and 7.2 rebounds.
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Game Analysis: Nothing looks special about Georgia that would suggest they can upset Michigan State. That alone should scare Spartan fans, as the team might be looking at Georgia the same way. And March Madness has a way of making bland teams like Georgia into rock stars; all it takes is a win.
Georgia is playing quite a bit closer to home, but it doesn't seem like a big enough difference to give them any edge. They haven't been to the Big Dance in years, and the lack of that experience on their team might be too much compared to perennial bid Michigan State.
Vegas Line:
Michigan State by 5
Power rating: spread
Michigan State by 5.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Michigan State: 65.9%
Georgia: 34.1%
The Vegas odds and the Strength power rating margin nearly match, picking the Spartans by 5 points. It actually gives Georgia a little better than the historical 61% chance for a 10-seed, partly due to the Spartans' uncharacteristic defeats to lesser teams.
Bottom line: If Michigan State had been doing anything but surging at the end of the season, this would be a good upset pick. It's the definition of unexpected, since Georgia doesn't stand out for any reason, and everyone always expects Tom Izzo to excel in March. But Michigan State *is* excelling in March so far, and whether or not this is their only win, we do expect them to get at least one.
Final prediction: Michigan State 66, Georgia 61
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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