All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Iowa Hawkeyes
Seed: 7
Record: 21-11
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Davidson Wildcats
Seed: 10
Record: 24-7
Conference: Atlantic 10
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 7:20 pm Eastern
Location: Seattle, WA
Region: South
Channel: TNT
A close matchup between two volatile teams; anything can happen.
Iowa Davidson
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #22 Strength: #28
Median play: #29 Median play: #27
Road/Neutral Rank: #22 Road/Neutral Rank: #60
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#22 Sagarin: #30
Pomeroy: #24 Pomeroy: #32
Offense: #35 Offense: #8
Defense: #42 Defense: #181
LRMC: #31 LRMC: #37
BPI: #35 BPI: #31
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #15 2nd half/season: #32
Last 6 games: #13 Last 6 games: #20
Injury correction: #21 Injury correction: #26
Consistency: #314 Consistency: #271
Deep Run Rank: #35 Deep Run Rank: #38
Best Shot: #15 Best Shot: #24
Schedule Strength: #42 Schedule Strength: #95
Most of the power ratings favor Iowa—narrowly. Strength and LRMC by 6 rungs, Sagarin and Pomeroy by 8, while the BPI has Davidson by 4 spots. In median play, which naturally filters out highs and lows, they're almost even, while Davidson's road/neutral play has been much worse. Iowa has excelled in more recent play, though Davidson has done well, too. The Wildcats have one of the nation's best offenses but a terrible defense, which might explain their volatility, but the Hawkeyes are very balanced—they just plain run hot and cold.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): Hampton+34, North Dakota St.+31, @North Carolina+5, North Florida+10, @Ohio St.+6, Ohio St.+9, Maryland+16, @Indiana+14
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =Texas-14, Iowa St.-15, =Northern Iowa-12, Michigan St.-14, @Wisconsin-32, @Purdue-4, Wisconsin-11
- Other losses (4): =Syracuse-3, Minnesota-5, @Northwestern-OT, =Penn St.-9
Key Info: Iowa's up and down season started with 30+ point wins over teams that would reach the NCAA tournament, 16-seed Hampton and 15-seed North Dakota State. Then they lost to 11-seed Texas and no-seed Syracuse in the 2K Sports Classic. The Hawks rebounded with 6 wins including 4-seed North Carolina in Chapel Hill, but lost to both in-state rivals, 3-seed Iowa State (90-75 at home) and 5-seed Northern Iowa (56-44 neutral court). They continued the pattern of: great wins, bad losses by beating Ohio State (losing to Michigan State at home), beat Ohio State again (lose to Wisconsin 82-50), beat Maryland (lose to Northwestern). Finally they put together another string of wins late in the year to finish 12-6 in the Big Ten, but they lost to lowly Penn State in the conference tournament. The Hawks' start is senior forward Aaron White, who leads in point (16) and rebound (7.5) per game.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): Dayton+17, VCU+27
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =North Carolina-18, @Virginia-11, @VCU-6, =VCU-20
- Other losses (4): @Richmond-26, @Saint Joseph's-5, St. Bonaventure-1
Key Info: Davidson was very consistent early on, whether beating a series of cupcakes, or losing to Virginia and VCU on the road. But the 89-63 loss to Richmond broke that streak, and a weak overtime win at George Mason and losses to marginal teams St. Joseph's and St. Bonaventure furthered the turbulence. But the next 9 or 10 games righted the ship, culminating in an 82-55 win over VCU. The near-loss to La Salle and the 20 point loss to the Rams in the Atlantic 10 tournament was a step back, but overall the latter part of the season was smooth sailing. Guards Tyler Kalinoski and Jack Gibbs average 17.0 and 16.3 points for the Wildcats.
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Game Analysis: Two volatile teams, evenly matched overall but very disparate depending on who has the ball, both riding great winning streaks that ended with a thud—this one's a tossup. Davidson has the great offense, with three guards who shoot 43%, 44% and 47% on threes. Iowa counters with height—its leading scorers are 6'9", 6' 8", and 6'10", and that doesn't even count their starting 7'1" center.
Davidson's offense vs. Iowa's defense will be great basketball. The Wildcats don't turn the ball over and they're great from the 2 or the 3. Iowa's D is great at shot-blocking and limiting opponents' field goal percentage. When Iowa has the ball, they aren't great shooters but rebound very well, and despite their #199 pace, they play uptempo: they're #64 in possession length on offense, but on defense they force teams into taking the 325th longest average possession length. Davidson's defense leaves a lot to be desired, which should keep the game higher-scoring.
The outcome probably depends on how Iowa plays. If they make their shots, they'll win. If they don't, Davidson will probably outscore them. While Davidson had its rough patches that added to its volatility score, they've really been fairly consistent. Iowa is completely up and down, however, and it varies from game to game and often between two halfs of the same game. If Davidson wins, it won't be so much as a Wildcat win as a Hawkeye loss.
Vegas Line:
Iowa by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
Iowa by 1.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Iowa: 52.3%
Davidson: 47.7%
Surprisingly the Vegas line is higher than what the Strength power rating gives, but it did open at Iowa -1.5. Due to Iowa's major volatility the game-comparison system only shows a 52% win chance for the Hawks, well below the historical 61% for 7-seeds.
Bottom line: Iowa tends to be up and down in two-game increments, and they're on the "1" at this time. If they hit their "up" stroke they can win by 18 points, but their down games are pretty bad. It should be a fun game to watch, however it turns out.
Final prediction: Davidson 72, Iowa 70
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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