All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
SMU Mustangs
Seed: 6
Record: 27-6
Conference: American
vs.
UCLA Bruins
Seed: 11
Record: 20-13
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Thursday, March 19
Time: 3:10 pm Eastern
Location: Louisville, KY
Region: South
Channel: truTV
We were one of the few Bracketology outlets to have UCLA in the tournament, not that the rest of our forecast was particularly accurate. Example: we had SMU the low 4-seed, and they ended up with a 6.
SMU UCLA
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #33 Strength: #46
Median play: #39 Median play: #49
Road/Neutral Rank: #35 Road/Neutral Rank: #67
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#29 Sagarin: #55
Pomeroy: #19 Pomeroy: #41
Offense: #24 Offense: #45
Defense: #43 Defense: #76
LRMC: #29 LRMC: #55
BPI: #24 BPI: #44
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #35 2nd half/season: #23
Last 6 games: #43 Last 6 games: #18
Injury correction: #31 Injury correction: #46
Consistency: #12 Consistency: #197
Deep Run Rank: #13 Deep Run Rank: #41
Best Shot: #47 Best Shot: #38
Schedule Strength: #92 Schedule Strength: #26
Can UCLA silence the naysayers who don't think the Bruins deserved their ticket? At first glance, no—they've got an uphill battle against SMU, who outranks them in every power rating. They should be competitive when they've got the ball, but when SMU is on offense it's a big gap. The main hope for the Bruins is recent play, where they've done well while SMU has faded a bit. The main argument against an upset is SMU's stellar consistency, #12 among 351 teams. That's a team that beats who they should, and loses only to teams that are clearly better.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): Eastern Washington+9, Texas Southern+13, Wyoming+13
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @Gonzaga-16, @Indiana-6, Arkansas-6, @Cincinnati-6, Cincinnati-8
- Other losses (1): @Connecticut-8
Key Info: Even though the American Athletic Conference hosted last year's national champ, the conference doesn't get the respect of a major, and it showed this year when the league got just two bids. That left SMU with just three wins over tournament teams: 13-seed Eastern Washington, 15-seed Texas Southern, and 12-seed Wyoming, all at home. They lost to the other AAC team, Cincinnati, both at home and on the road. The Mustangs are led by Nic Moore's 14.2 ppg with three others in double figures.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): Coastal Carolina+13, =UAB+12, Utah+10, Oregon+9
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =Oklahoma-10, =North Carolina-22, Gonzaga-13, =Kentucky-39, @Utah-32, @Oregon-18, @Arizona-10, =Arizona-6
- Other losses (5): @Alabama-6, @Colorado-6, @Oregon St.-11, @California-2, @Arizona St.-2
Key Info: UCLA looked dead in the water at 8-7 after losing to Utah 71-39. And that wasn't even their worst loss—that would be the 83-44 beatdown Kentucky put on them (halftime score: UK 41, UCLA 7). The Bruins battled back but kept getting bit by bad losses (Oregon State, California). In the last month or so, however, they seem to have put that behind them, losing only to underrated Arizona State once and Arizona twice, while winning 6 games, beating the teams they should beat, and upsetting Oregon to go with their earlier win over Utah. Five Bruins average double figures, including Norman Powell (16.4) and coaches' son Bryce Alford (15.1).
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Game Analysis: UCLA is going to have to play their best to beat SMU, because the Mustangs can't be counted on to play poorly. The Bruins will have to rise to SMU's normal, very-consistent level.
Luckily for them, that's how they've been playing lately—at roughly SMU's level. The Mustangs started 2-3 with losses to Gonzaga, Indiana, and Arkansas, but have put together winning streaks of 8, 8, 5, and 4 since then while going 25-3. In contrast, UCLA's longest winning streak is 4 games—against a much tougher conference schedule, however.
And very interestingly, if you look at our Strength ratings, or Ken Pomeroy's ratings, the Mustangs haven't beaten a team all year ranked as high as UCLA. UCLA doesn't fare much better by that measure, having defeated only one opponent (Utah) as good as the Mustangs.
Vegas Line:
SMU by 3
Power rating: spread
SMU by 1.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
SMU: 52.6%
UCLA: 47.4%
Vegas and the Strength power rating see a close game, closer than the typical 6 vs. 11-seed matchup, which leans 2/3 to the 6-seed.
Bottom line: SMU is constistently good, and UCLA needs to spark to rise to their level. Hearing all the surprise and chagrin at their inclusion might just do it. Steve Alford is kind of a prick and should be able to use that negative motivation to his team's advantage. We think the Bruins will either win or come very close, and since we didn't go with Texas over Butler, this one will have to do.
Final prediction: UCLA 69, SMU 66
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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