All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Providence Friars
Seed: 6
Record: 22-11
Conference: Big East
vs.
Dayton Flyers
Seed: 11
Record: 26-8
Conference: Atlantic 10
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 9:57 pm Eastern
Location: Columbus, OH
Region: East
Channel: truTV
You'll be hearing this a lot before Friday's game: It's the Friars vs. the Flyers
Providence Dayton
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #27 Strength: #52
Median play: #30 Median play: #60
Road/Neutral Rank: #13 Road/Neutral Rank: #63
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#28 Sagarin: #51
Pomeroy: #28 Pomeroy: #45
Offense: #38 Offense: #76
Defense: #48 Defense: #34
LRMC: #32 LRMC: #40
BPI: #33 BPI: #32
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #24 2nd half/season: #59
Last 6 games: #21 Last 6 games: #54
Injury correction: #28 Injury correction: #54
Consistency: #312 Consistency: #35
Deep Run Rank: #43 Deep Run Rank: #26
Best Shot: #21 Best Shot: #49
Schedule Strength: #8 Schedule Strength: #105
Providence looks like the better team, but what if Dayton is playing close enough to home to count it as a home game? And what if Providence has a road/neutral court record that ranks among the best? Then it becomes somewhat of a tossup, just like the BPI calls it. The Friars are the wild card here as the Flyers are pretty stable overall.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): Albany+4, =Notre Dame+1, @Butler+4, Georgetown+OT, Xavier+OT, @Georgetown+3, @St. John's+17
- Losses to tournament teams (8): @Kentucky-20, St. John's-13, @St. John's-9, @Xavier-9, Villanova-6, @Villanova-28, Butler-4, =Villanova-2
- Other losses (3): @Boston College-9, Brown-10, @Marquette-9
Key Info: Providence beat 16-seed Albany, then won the Hall of Fame tip-off by beating 4-seed Notre Dame, then beat near-tourney-team Yale. Was the Kentucky loss that followed so devastating that they had to lose to Boston College, and then to Brown at home? After a few more decent wins, the Friars lost to Marquette, but that was their last "bad" defeat. They went 11-7 in the Big East, sweeping Georgetown but losing three to Villanova including the tournament title game by 2 points. Senior forward LaDontae Henton (19.7 ppg) leads the offense and also grabs 6.4 rebounds.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): Mississippi+4, @VCU+4, Boise St.+1
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @Arkansas-14, @Davidson-17, =VCU-6
- Other losses (5): =Connecticut-11, @Massachusetts-2, @George Washington-OT, @Duquesne-10, @La Salle-2
Key Info: Dayton is now 17-0 at home after edging Boise State by a point in a very unfair predicament for the Broncos. But hey, a win's a win, and that's 17 of them. Now they play in Columbus, 70 miles down the road in what will be another home court atmosphere. Of course, it's not like they were giant-killers at home; their best wins were over two Play-in teams, Mississippi and Boise State, and they also beat Richmond and Rhode Island. They didn't face Davidson or VCU at home—though they did beat the Rams on the road while they were in somewhat of a downward spiral.
Jordan Sibert is their leading scorer at 16.5 points per game; he had 13 against Boise while forward Kendall Pollard led with 17.
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Game Analysis: Dayton is 17-0 at home; Providence the #13 "away from home" team in the nation. But let's look closer at the Friars. When we split out neutral and road games, we see it's the neutral-court ones that are giving them the most boost. They're 3-1 with wins over Florida State, Notre Dame, and Miami, with a 2-point loss to Villanova. On the road they're 6-6 and not nearly as good, but they still actually rank ahead of Dayton's home "squad" which, although undefeated, isn't much better than their road play. Of course all if this is hard to tease out, and the sample sizes are tiny in some cases. The bottom line is, Providence isn't at much of a disadvantage playing what essentially is a road game, but they aren't better off for it, either.
This game is a great test case for the "play-in team" effect. As we've written about many times, the Play-in game winners do exceptionally well, much better than would be expected in many cases. Dayton just won a play-in game, but they were the home team. The play-in effect seems to come from getting a win under your belt before your opponent—but is part of that equation getting a neutral court win? Playing at home might not "count" the same way that getting a neutral court game does. Of course our sample of one won't reveal anything right away, and furthermore, it's complicated by the fact that Dayton is almost (but not quite) playing another home game.
This is also a case of consistency vs. variability. Providence has been all over the place while Dayton is relatively predictable. The Boise result is an example; they figured to win playing at home, and it was supposed to be close. Can't get much closer—unless it's this game...see below.
Vegas Line:
No line yet
Power rating: spread
Dayton by 0.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Providence: 50.3%
Dayton: 49.7%
Well, how close is this one? Giving Dayton full home court advantage—without accounting for any differences in Providence's road/neutral court play—makes for a very close game. So close, in fact, that although Dayton wins by an average of 0.3 points, Providence still wins a slight majority of all test cases.
Bottom line: I wasn't impressed by Dayton's win over Boise at all. Any other result—a Boise road win, or a solid Dayton win leading to another near-home contest for the Flyers, and Providence would have been toast. This is the only scenario where I see the Friars winning. It's still the most uncertain outcome of all 32 first-round games, but we'll take the team that almost beat Villanova over the team that almost lost at home to Boise State.
Final prediction: Providence 73, Dayton 70 OT
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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