All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Utah Utes
Seed: 5
Record: 24-8
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Seed: 12
Record: 29-4
Conference: Southland
Date: Thursday, March 19
Time: 7:27 pm Eastern
Location: Portland, OR
Region: South
Channel: truTV
It's the Utes vs. the Jacks in the South in...Portland?
Utah Stephen F. Austin
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #8 Strength: #55
Median play: #7 Median play: #47
Road/Neutral Rank: #12 Road/Neutral Rank: #51
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#8 Sagarin: #53
Pomeroy: #8 Pomeroy: #35
Offense: #18 Offense: #19
Defense: #8 Defense: #103
LRMC: #9 LRMC: #44
BPI: #12 BPI: #53
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #7 2nd half/season: #39
Last 6 games: #12 Last 6 games: #35
Injury correction: #7 Injury correction: #53
Consistency: #324 Consistency: #122
Deep Run Rank: #16 Deep Run Rank: #36
Best Shot: #5 Best Shot: #44
Schedule Strength: #48 Schedule Strength: #269
Utah doesn't rank as a typical 5-seed—they look more like a 2-seed by everyone's power ratings. Strength, Sagarin, Pomeroy, and LRMC put the Utes in the top ten, while the BPI, which reflects losses to some extent, drop them to #12. They still rank high in 2nd-half-of-season play and very recent play, despite losing 4 of their last 7. Like many good teams this year, the Utes' Consistency is very low, partially explaining their 2-seed quality vs. 5-seed résumé. If they'd had a killer schedule, that could explain it, too, but #48 isn't overwhelming. The Lumberjacks on the other hand are 29-4 but rank in the 30s, 40s, or 50s in the various power ratings, which given their schedule strength is reasonable. It's also a wide range, unlike Utah's. There is less agreement on the Jacks than the Utes, despite the Jacks being much more consistent, and winning the games they're supposed to win. Notably the teams have basically equivalent offenses.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): Wichita St.+OT, @BYU+4, UCLA+32
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @San Diego St.-4, @Kansas-3, @Arizona-18, @UCLA-10, @Oregon-11, Arizona-6, =Oregon-3
- Other losses (1): @Washington-9
Key Info: Now we can see why Utah's recent play didn't decline despite their late losses—two monster performances (beating Arizona State 83-41, and Stanford 80-56) kept their Last 6 Games average very high (#12), despite losing three of those games. If anything, Utah is getting more schizophrenic lately—able to beat anyone, but vulnerable to upset. The Utes' "Last 5 Games" ranking is just #34. Guard Delon Wright (14.9ppg) is shooting 53% from the floor; Utah's slow tempo (#331 in average possession length) offense has only two others in double figures (and just barely). On defense the Utes hold their opponents to the 5th lowest effective field goal percentage in the country.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (3): Northern Iowa-OT, @Xavier-18, @Baylor-16
- Other losses (1): @Texas A&M Corpus Christi-8
Key Info: Stephen F. Austin hasn't beaten anyone in the tournament field, but they only had three chances and in one of them they took 5-seed Northern Iowa into overtime. Xavier and Baylor handled the Jacks pretty easily at their places. Other than that, the Lumberjacks won a lot of games, and are 28-1 after that 1-3 start. They feature two main scorers, Thomas Walkup and Jacob Parker, who combine for roughly 30 of SF Austin's 79 point average and 12 of their 35 rebounds. That a 6'4" guard and 6'6" forward get the lion's share of rebounds is telling—the Jacks are a very small team, with Parker often their tallest player on the court.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: Utah's quality points to a possible great tournament run. But their inconsistency points to a possible early exit. Lately we've seen examples of both their potential for greatness and collapse, as they scorched ASU and Stanford, two good teams, but lost to Washington. It's troublesome that they lost 4 of their last 7 games, and this recent play suggests that a deep tournament run is very unlikely. For the game in question, it provides no answers: Utah might win by 40, but they could just as easily lose.
The most stunning thing about this particular matchup is the disparity in height. Utah is one of the taller teams in the nation, with two 7-foot centers and 6' 5" guard Wright. Stephen F. Austin on the other hand is one of the shortest teams, with their typical lineup averaging 6' 3". the Jacks may have trouble stopping freshman Jakob Poeltl, who takes high percentage shots (67%) and leads in rebounding and blocked shots; backup Dallin Bachynski is used less often. But Utah has had trouble with smaller teams; they lost twice to Oregon, who plays a lineup similar in size to SF Austin's. Poeltl scored 5 and 7 points in those games, under his 8.7 average.
Vegas Line:
Utah by 6 1/2
Power rating: spread
Utah by 10.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Utah: 76.0%
SF Austin: 24.0%
The spread is several points lower than the margin projected by the Strength power rating, reflecting the doubts about this game. But Utah's percentage to win, using game result comparisons, is favorable to the normal 5-12 matchup, reflecting the fact that Utah has performed at 2-seed quality.
Bottom line: It's interesting how much this matchup mirrors Utah vs. Oregon. Twice the small Ducks beat the taller Utes, and the Lumberjacks rank similarly in Strength and better in Pomeroy, with a similar offensive and defensive ranking. Depending on which Utah shows up it could be a 30-point blowout in their favor, but with their recent schizophrenia the Utes don't look poised for a deep tournament run; maybe it's just better to get rid of them here so we don't get tempted to advance them too far?
Final prediction: Stephen F. Austin 67, Utah 64
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments