All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Northern Iowa Panthers
Seed: 5
Record: 30-3
Conference: Missouri Valley
vs.
Wyoming Cowboys
Seed: 12
Record: 25-9
Conference: Mountain West
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 1:40 pm Eastern
Location: Seattle, WA
Region: East
Channel: TBS
Only in the NCAA tournament will you find an East region game in Seattle, Washington.
Northern Iowa Wyoming
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #34 Strength: #121
Median play: #45 Median play: #131
Road/Neutral Rank: #21 Road/Neutral Rank: #145
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#25 Sagarin: #111
Pomeroy: #12 Pomeroy: #102
Offense: #15 Offense: #175
Defense: #16 Defense: #67
LRMC: #18 LRMC: #99
BPI: #14 BPI: #102
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #26 2nd half/season: #135
Last 6 games: #38 Last 6 games: #64
Injury correction: #34 Injury correction: #106
Consistency: #36 Consistency: #256
Deep Run Rank: #18 Deep Run Rank: #61
Best Shot: #45 Best Shot: #52
Schedule Strength: #138 Schedule Strength: #187
The power ratings, usually in pretty fair agreement, argue over Northern Iowa, mainly due to their tempo (very, very slow) and schedule strength (fairly weak). Our Strength rating, the most traditional of the bunch, rates them #34. Sagarin, which adds momentum, has them #25. LRMC, the most un-traditional, puts them #18 (season momentum, and winning a high percentage, seems to help here). The BPI and Pomeroy have them the highest because they even the playing field for tempo. UNI is a very balanced team, efficient on both offense and defense. Wyoming isn't nearly as strong on paper and the only comparison that gets them close is recent play—which is exactly how they got into the tournament in the first place.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): @Stephen F. Austin+OT, North Florida+17, =Iowa+12, Wichita St.+16
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @VCU-OT, @Wichita St.-14
- Other losses (1): @Evansville-3
Key Info: It's easy to sum up Northern Iowa's season. They needed overtime to beat 12-seed S.F. Austin on the road, they beat 16-seed North Florida handily, and trounced 7-seed Iowa on a neutral court, coming back from a big 1st half deficit. They split with 7-seed Wichita State in two lopsided games. They were upset by lowly Evansville. And, in addition, they had wins—lots and lots of wins. But almost all of them came against competition that wasn't at their level. Other than Richmond, and Illinois State twice, none of them were notable. Still, it's a sign of quality to consistently beat the teams you're supposed to beat. The Panthers are a low tempo (348 out of 351) team, so their game stats match; therefore it's even more impressive that 6-8 senior Seth Tuttle averages 15.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, the equivalent of 17 and 7.5 on a normal-pace team. Both of his numbers are basically double the next player in line, but seven more players average between 5.0 and 7.7 ppg.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): New Mexico St.+3, Boise St.+11, =Boise St.+OT, =San Diego St.+2
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @SMU-13, San Diego St.-8, @San Diego St.-26
- Other losses (6): @California-3, @Utah St.-12, @Air Force-23, Fresno St.-5, @UNLV-12, @New Mexico-OT
Key Info: Wyoming started the season 15-2 and, coming off wins over Colorado State and Boise State, they looked like an NCAA team. But the losses started to mount, and they finished the regular season losing 5 of 8; their only hope was to win the Mountain West tournament. They beat Boise State in overtime to advance to the final vs. San Diego State, who beat them twice before, but they won a low-scoring battle, 45-43. Speaking of low scoring, Wyoming is one of the few teams that will match Northern Iowa's super-low tempo (they are #344 in the nation). Larry Nance Jr. must be applauded for managing to average 16.1 points and 7.2 rebounds despite the limited opportunities.
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Game Analysis: Northern Iowa has a lot going for it for a potential good run in the tournament. Their balance between offense and defense—#15 and #16—means they aren't dependent on excelling on one side of the court like some teams. It also makes them a tough team for whom to find a weakness. Second, they are a very consistent team. Some of this is due to their tempo, which compresses scores, but to win 30 games you need a high degree of consistency, which makes them less vulnerable to upset as well.
Wyoming vs. Northern Iowa might just end up being the slowest-paced game ever played in the NCAA tournament. Their tempo ratings—#348 and #344—combine for a projection of a 53 possession game (via Kenpom.com). It might not be fun to watch, but at least you can say that every possession is critical!
Each team has a 6-8 senior star forward, and the battle between Seth Tuttle and Larry Nance Jr. will help decide the winner, obviously. But when teams play slow tempo offenses, they have to play team basketball, so the battle underneath won't be the whole story.
Vegas Line:
Northern Iowa by 6
Power rating: spread
Northern Iowa by 8.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Northern Iowa: 75.5%
Wyoming: 24.5%
UNI is a moderate favorite, with a Strength-based estimate of a 3/4 chance to win, higher than the normal 5-vs-12 percentage (63%). The Panthers are a very consistent team and that helps.
Bottom line: Often, slow-tempo teams are able to upset teams by employing the slower pace which keeps things "in check", giving the underdog more chance to win. But what if the favorite is also a slow-pace team? Is having a small number of possessions something you want to do against UNI? It seems like it's just playing into their hands. Add in UNI's consistency and efficiency on both offense and defense and we think the odds of an upset are small.
Final prediction: Northern Iowa 52, Wyoming 38
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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