All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Arkansas Razorbacks
Seed: 5
Record: 26-8
Conference: SEC
vs.
Wofford Terriers
Seed: 12
Record: 28-6
Conference: Southern
Date: Thursday, March 19
Time: 9:50 pm Eastern
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Region: West
Channel: TNT
Wofford tries again for its first NCAA win.
Arkansas Wofford
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #26 Strength: #118
Median play: #29 Median play: #119
Road/Neutral Rank: #28 Road/Neutral Rank: #116
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#26 Sagarin: #114
Pomeroy: #29 Pomeroy: #96
Offense: #21 Offense: #143
Defense: #81 Defense: #78
LRMC: #23 LRMC: #85
BPI: #21 BPI: #92
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #36 2nd half/season: #115
Last 6 games: #29 Last 6 games: #115
Injury correction: #27 Injury correction: #119
Consistency: #39 Consistency: #83
Deep Run Rank: #14 Deep Run Rank: #53
Best Shot: #40 Best Shot: #57
Schedule Strength: #62 Schedule Strength: #249
Not much noteworthy here; Arkansas outclasses the Terriers in every power rating, and both teams are far above average in Consistency which reduces the odds of an upset. One area in which the teams are almost equal is defensive efficiency; in fact, the Terriers rate slightly better on D.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): @SMU+6, Dayton+14, @Georgia+4, @Mississippi+1, =Georgia+11
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @Iowa St.-18, Mississippi-14, @Kentucky-17, LSU-3, =Kentucky-15
- Other losses (3): @Clemson-OT, @Tennessee-5, @Florida-1
Key Info: Arkansas didn't really beat any great teams this year. Their five NCAA-team wins include 10-seed Georgia twice and two Play-in teams, Dayton and Mississippi, leaving 6-seed SMU as their top victim. The Razorbacks won 10 of their last 13 games, with two of those losses to Kentucky. Big forward Bobby Portis and guard Michael Qualls lead in scoring with 17.5 and 15.5 apiece; Portis also leads in rebounding with 8.6.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @North Carolina St.+1
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @West Virginia-33, @Duke-29
- Other losses (4): @Stanford-15, @William & Mary-4, @The Citadel-3, Chattanooga-10
Key Info: Wofford started the season with a loss at Stanford, picked up a few decent wins (Iona, Sam Houston State), and fell to William & Mary before getting their best win over 8-seed North Carolina State. The Terriers didn't fare nearly as well at 5-seed West Virginia or 1-seed Duke. After that, their schedule was extremely soft in the Southern Conference, with only their losses to The Citadel and Chattanooga being noteworthy. They finished the year as steady and predictable as they were all season. 6' 1" guard Karl Cochran leads the team in scoring (14.6ppg) and is also tied for the rebounding lead at 5.8 per game.
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Game Analysis: Wofford has had three attempts in the last five years to get an NCAA win, and each attempt has gone worse than the last. They almost beat Wisconsin in 2010, losing 53-49. In 2011 they fell to BYU by 8, and last year Michigan topped them by 17.
Wofford plays relatively strong defense, just as good as Arkansas' D. But the advantage for the Razorbacks on offense is huge. They don't need to play great defense to handle the Terriers' offense and when Arkansas has the ball Wofford's D will be tested.
Vegas Line:
Arkansas by 7 1/2
Power rating: spread
Arkansas by 9.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Arkansas: 79.5%
Wofford: 20.5%
An average 12-seed wins 37% of the time, so Wofford's 1 in 5 chance here is below par. But with both teams very consistent, there just aren't enough outlier examples on their schedule to diverge very far from the expected result.
Bottom line: These teams' charts look exactly the same, gently rolling hills of predictability but with Arkansas' ratings consistently higher, not what you want to see if you're thinking Wofford's time has finally come to get that elusive NCAA win. We're going the other direction and picking a big Arkansas win, similar to the Terriers' losses to Duke and West Virginia. Sometime you have to pick upsets, but sometimes the pendulum swings the other way, too.
Final prediction: Arkansas 86, Wofford 51
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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