All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Maryland Terrapins
Seed: 4
Record: 27-6
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Valparaiso Crusaders
Seed: 13
Record: 28-5
Conference: Horizon
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 4:40 pm Eastern
Location: Columbus, OH
Region: Midwest
Channel: TNT
Valpo vs. the Terps. Sounds like West Side Story.
Maryland Valparaiso
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #29 Strength: #68
Median play: #31 Median play: #70
Road/Neutral Rank: #26 Road/Neutral Rank: #55
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#32 Sagarin: #72
Pomeroy: #33 Pomeroy: #63
Offense: #56 Offense: #129
Defense: #36 Defense: #31
LRMC: #30 LRMC: #64
BPI: #27 BPI: #72
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #44 2nd half/season: #77
Last 6 games: #16 Last 6 games: #96
Injury correction: #25 Injury correction: #69
Consistency: #68 Consistency: #268
Deep Run Rank: #20 Deep Run Rank: #51
Best Shot: #39 Best Shot: #42
Schedule Strength: #58 Schedule Strength: #204
Pointing to an upset: these teams are pretty close together for a 4 and a 13, with Pomeroy ranking them 30 spaces apart. Every power rating shows the Terps being quite weak for a 4-seed, rating like an 8- or 9-seed. Also, Valparaiso's variability (low consistency) suggests they could close that gap, and they've got the defense to do it. Pointing away from an upset: in the last several games Maryland has played great basketball while Valpo has slipped. Maryland's high consistency doesn't lend itself to being upset, and Valpo's offense is no match for the Terps' D.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =Iowa St.+9, @Oklahoma St.+9, @Michigan St.+OT, @Purdue+9, Michigan St.+16, Indiana+2, Wisconsin+6, =Indiana+6
- Losses to tournament teams (5): Virginia-11, @Indiana-19, @Ohio St.-24, @Iowa-16, =Michigan St.-4
- Other losses (1): @Illinois-7
Key Info: Maryland was a surprise team this year right out of the gate, starting 14-1 with road or neutral court wins over 3-seed Iowa State, Oklahoma State, 9-seed Oklahoma State, and 7-seed Michigan State, and just one loss to 2-seed and at-the-time undefeated Virginia. After their 2nd win over the Spartans they were 17-2 with the résumé of a potential 1-seed, but at the time we noted their Strength was seriously lagging for a top team. On cue, they lost 3 of their next 5 but all were to tournament teams. They won 7 straight to finish the regular season, and lost narrowly to Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament. Overachieving? A bit, yes, but a strong finish—including a win over Wisconsin—after they hit turbulence. Freshman Melo Trimble (16.3 ppg) is making 40% of his 3s, and senior Dez Wells (15.4) is making 50% of his.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (0): none
- Other losses (5): @Missouri-15, New Mexico-17, @Oakland-OT, @Green Bay-1, @Detroit-3
Key Info: Valparaiso hit some highs early—see game 7, a 93-58 bludgeoning of Murray State, everyone's favorite team that missed the tournament—but they hit lows too, losing to lowly Missouri and New Mexico by double digits. They flattened out a bit as conference season started, but mixed in with the many wins were losses to Oakland and Detroit that shouldn't have happened. They took 2 of 3 from Green Bay and the last win put them in the tournament, but they didn't play a single NCAA tournament team all year, a very negative indicator. The Crusaders are led by soph forward Alec Peters' 16.7 points and 6.8 rebounds.
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Game Analysis: Maryland has had a great year, outplaying their Strength and other power ratings throughout the season. That both gave them a high seed and put them at risk to underachieve in the tournament. The Terps have a trio of great scorers, all of whom can hit the 3, but if the 3s aren't falling—or their main trio falls short—they're in trouble, as scoring beyond the top trio is low.
Valparaiso also had a great year at 28-5 but the competition was sparse. They didn't play a single NCAA tournament game, and not a single non-tournament game against a team that was better than they are, which doesn't bode well for facing a team that is quite a bit better than they are. They also lost to a clutch of just plain bad teams. Their high variance, indicative of the possibility of raising their game to another level, disappeared as the season progressed. They became very predictable—and admittedly, quite good—but not great. Valpo might have made a great NIT run but probably isn't a good fit for the Big Dance.
That said, they do have a top-notch defense, capable of stopping Maryland's offense. That, and a slower tempo, could keep the game close in what is already a very close 4 vs. 13.
Vegas Line:
Maryland by 4 1/2
Power rating: spread
Maryland by 4.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Maryland: 66.4%
Valparaiso: 33.6%
Pretty strong agreement between our power rating and Vegas, with resultant odds that show how close this game is compared to most 4-seed vs. 13-seed matchups (normally 79%).
Bottom line: We went in expecting to take this upset, since Maryland is a weak 4 and we don't expect them to go far. But the criteria was mixed at the start, and Valpo's lack of playing any good teams at all is a concern for when they get in against Maryland. The Terps aren't great, but they have been pretty sturdy over the last 9 games.
Final prediction: Maryland 65, Valparaiso 56
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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