All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Louisville Cardinals
Seed: 4
Record: 24-8
Conference: ACC
vs.
UC Irvine Anteaters
Seed: 13
Record: 21-12
Conference: Big West
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 4:10 pm Eastern
Location: Seattle, WA
Region: East
Channel: TBS
They aren't the Banana Slugs but the Anteaters are the next best thing.
Louisville UC Irvine
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #15 Strength: #107
Median play: #16 Median play: #87
Road/Neutral Rank: #11 Road/Neutral Rank: #94
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#16 Sagarin: #110
Pomeroy: #18 Pomeroy: #94
Offense: #95 Offense: #123
Defense: #6 Defense: #92
LRMC: #20 LRMC: #90
BPI: #16 BPI: #99
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #22 2nd half/season: #88
Last 6 games: #24 Last 6 games: #137
Injury correction: #29 Injury correction: #92
Consistency: #138 Consistency: #247
Deep Run Rank: #9 Deep Run Rank: #57
Best Shot: #20 Best Shot: #50
Schedule Strength: #27 Schedule Strength: #128
We know that Louisville lives by their defense, but this year their offense isn't up to snuff, and UC Irvine's defense is just as good. Other than that, of course, the Cardinals have the edge everywhere, but based on missing players the game does tighten a bit; Louisville is without suspended guard Chris Jones, and UC Irvine has has two key players back that missed much of the season. Is it enough to give them a chance?
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): Ohio St.+9, =Indiana+20, North Carolina+OT, Virginia+2
- Losses to tournament teams (7): Kentucky-8, @North Carolina-1, Duke-11, @Virginia-5, North Carolina St.-9, Notre Dame-12, @North Carolina-10
- Other losses (1): @Syracuse-10
Key Info: Three-fourths of the way into the season Louisville was a very good, very consistent team, the kind that goes deep into the NCAA tournament. Then they played their worst game of the season in a loss to NC State, and then 3rd leading scorer Chris Jones was suspended. He returned briefly but missed the last 5 games, and since the disruption Louisville has turned erratic. They're still good enough to beat most teams even on a bad day, led by Terry Rozier's 17.1 ppg.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @Arizona-17, @Oregon-OT, @New Mexico St.-3
- Other losses (9): @Saint Mary's-3, @Fresno St.-9, UT Arlington-8, @Morgan St.-1, Long Beach St.-6, UC Davis-19, @UC Riverside-7, @UC Santa Barbara-3, @UC Davis-19
Key Info: The Anteaters didn't beat any NCAA tournament-bound teams, but they did beat near-miss Green Bay and took Oregon into overtime on the road before losing 69-67. That was the best performance in their 7-8 start, and once the Big West schedule kicked in they went on a roll, winning six straight, four by double figures. They couldn't sustain that and laid an egg at home against UC Davis (75-56, game 22) but come tournament time they took care of business with three solid wins. 6-8 senior Will Davis II was the team's leading scorer and rebounder (12.9/7.0), but there was a stretch of 21 games where they were missing #2 scorer Luke Nelson and/or #3 scorer Mamadou Ndiaye; they lost 8 during that stretch and 3 of 4 with both players out.
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Game Analysis: Louisville both got worse and became unpredictable around the time of Chris Jones' suspension, two things you don't want to have happen going into the Big Dance. It certainly makes them more vulnerable to upset, but will it happen in the first round? In 2011, 13-seed Morehead State shocked the Cardinals, and that Louisville looked more promising than this one.
The Anteaters put together three wins in a row at the end of the season, only the 2nd time they've done that all year. The game prior they lost to UC Davis by 19—for the 2nd time. So while they've been inconsistent—the hallmark of a team that call pull off an upset—it's been mostly on the downside: their last 3 games are the best it gets for Irvine.
Irvine doesn't present much of a problem on offense for Louisville's D, but if the Cardinals are having a bad game offensively they could hang around. The Anteaters play a slower pace, which limits opportunities to score, and Louisville is not a very good shooting team.
Vegas Line:
Louisville by 8
Power rating: spread
Louisville by 12.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Louisville: 83.4%
UC Irvine: 16.6%
For the full season, Louisville is a clear favorite, with the Strength power rating spotting them over 12 points and giving a 5 in 6 chance of victory, even higher than the historical 79% for a 4-seed. But the game is considerable tighter based on recent play, and Vegas' line, which moved from 9 to 8, reflects that.
Bottom line: If we had to pick a 4 vs. 13 upset, it might very well be this one. Because we don't see the Cardinals going very deep in the tournament this year, so picking an upset doesn't seem like a bracket-wrecking move. It also seems like they could get overconfident against a foe who has been pretty weak most of the year. But for now we think they'll win and survive to the 2nd round, even if Irvine tests them.
Final prediction: Louisville 60, UC Irvine 56
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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