All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Oklahoma Sooners
Seed: 3
Record: 22-10
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Albany Great Danes
Seed: 14
Record: 24-8
Conference: America East
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 7:27 pm Eastern
Location: Columbus, OH
Region: East
Channel: truTV
In which Oklahoma's #3 SOS will take a hit, and Albany's #324 SOS is upgraded.
Oklahoma Albany
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #11 Strength: #147
Median play: #19 Median play: #140
Road/Neutral Rank: #18 Road/Neutral Rank: #124
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#10 Sagarin: #145
Pomeroy: #9 Pomeroy: #131
Offense: #50 Offense: #117
Defense: #5 Defense: #155
LRMC: #11 LRMC: #108
BPI: #11 BPI: #128
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #11 2nd half/season: #121
Last 6 games: #19 Last 6 games: #156
Injury correction: #11 Injury correction: #145
Consistency: #270 Consistency: #158
Deep Run Rank: #15 Deep Run Rank: #62
Best Shot: #12 Best Shot: #59
Schedule Strength: #3 Schedule Strength: #324
Oklahoma lost 10 games this year but played one of the hardest schedules in the country. Albany lost 8 games against one of the easiest schedules in the country. The Sooners rank 9th, 10th, or 11th in all the surveyed power ratings, with a top 5 defense. Albany ranks anywhere from #108 to #147. This would be a big upset, even for a 3-seed vs. a 14-seed.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =UCLA+10, =Butler+13, Baylor+10, @Texas+21, Oklahoma St.+17, @Oklahoma St.+8, West Virginia+19, Iowa St.+11, Texas+2, Kansas+2, =Oklahoma St.+15
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =Wisconsin-13, @West Virginia-21, @Kansas-7, @Baylor-11, @Iowa St.-7, =Iowa St.-2
- Other losses (4): @Creighton-2, =Washington-2, Kansas St.-OT, @Kansas St.-3
Key Info: The Sooners got some decent early wins against UCLA and Butler but also took hits from Creighton and Washington. They lost to 1-seed Wisconsin 69-56 on a neutral court. In the Big Twelve they hit a rough patch and lost 4 of 5 recovering to win 10 of their last 13. In that stretch they beat six tourney teams including 3-seed Iowa State and 2-seed Kansas, but lost to the Cyclones twice. Buddy Heidl repeated as the Sooners' leading scorer at 17.5 ppg this year.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @Providence-4
- Other losses (7): Quinnipiac-OT, @UNLV-16, Holy Cross-17, @St. Francis PA-10, @Bucknell-3, @Niagara-18, Stony Brook-3
Key Info: Albany got most of their losses out of the way early. They almost beat Providence in the first game, and that was their only experience against the current field. They lost terribly to 14-16 Holy Cross (game 6, 74-57 at home) and 8-22 Niagara (65-47, game 12), but after that they hit their stride. The schedule didn't get easier—they'd been losing to teams just as poor—but once conference season started, the wins came, 19 times out of 20. Our explanation is simple: they know their conference foes well. So while they can lose to the likes of Buckness and Quinnipiac, they can beat New Hampshire and Vermont, even if the latter are better teams. Their early volatility also smoothed out almost completely. The Danes have a trio of scorers above 13 ppg including Sam Rowly who also leads with 7.7 rebounds.
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Game Analysis: Oftentimes teams like Albany start the season with a tough schedule, playing road games against the major conferences. They rack up a lot of losses, but when they get into conference play they're battle-tested and ready. That's not what happened to Albany. They played a majority-cupcake non-conference schedule, lost to most of those teams, but still managed to run through their conference almost unscathed. The result was a very low SOS but a conference crown.
It left them with virtually no experience against an actual good team. Providence, a 6-seed, was their first game, and they did very well. They also beat Yale, who was within a hair of making the tournament but isn't a top 50 team. Now they'll be facing arguably a top ten team in Oklahoma. The Sooners have hardly played a team outside the top 50 over the last few months.
The Sooners lost to a few non-tournament teams, but most of them are clearly better than Albany (the LRMC ranks the Danes higher than Washington), and their volatility is on the high side. But mostly it's on the upside (their Median ranking cuts them down to #19). And Albany hasn't shown any upside potential in months—just steady winning in their conference.
And that's the other thing—Albany so clearly played better once the conference season started, it makes one wonder whether even a mediocre non-conference opponent would be too much for them. Let alone one of the top programs in the country. Slowing down the pace is the only way they can keep it close, and Oklahoma isn't going to cooperate with that.
Vegas Line:
Oklahoma by 13
Power rating: spread
Oklahoma by 17.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Oklahoma: 90.7%
Albany: 9.3%
Albany's recent consistency helps them and hurts them in the game-comparison model. It gives them some "wins" when Oklahoma plays an awful game, but that's rare—most of the time it results in a "loss" since Oklahoma's game ratings are higher than Albany's across the last 2 months. A 3-seed normally has a 15% chance of an upset but not here.
Bottom line: If an upset happens here, it will be a real shock—like any time a 3 beats a 14, true. But moreso.
Final prediction: Oklahoma 71, Albany 55
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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