All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Seed: 3
Record: 29-5
Conference: ACC
vs.
Northeastern Huskies
Seed: 14
Record: 23-11
Conference: Colonial
Date: Thursday, March 19
Time: 12:15 pm Eastern
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Region: Midwest
Channel: CBS
The tournament proper kicks off with Notre Dame against Northeastern.
Notre Dame Northeastern
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #12 Strength: #124
Median play: #14 Median play: #117
Road/Neutral Rank: #6 Road/Neutral Rank: #121
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#15 Sagarin: #127
Pomeroy: #10 Pomeroy: #120
Offense: #2 Offense: #90
Defense: #112 Defense: #171
LRMC: #13 LRMC: #87
BPI: #9 BPI: #123
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #14 2nd half/season: #142
Last 6 games: #6 Last 6 games: #143
Injury correction: #13 Injury correction: #123
Consistency: #294 Consistency: #239
Deep Run Rank: #21 Deep Run Rank: #60
Best Shot: #11 Best Shot: #54
Schedule Strength: #79 Schedule Strength: #181
As befits a 3 vs. 14 matchup, Notre Dame ranks better in every area, but it's interesting that Northeastern on offense is better than the Irish on defense. The LRMC, as usual, ranks poorer teams higher than the other power ratings and is alone in putting the Huskies in the top 100. Neither team is very consistent, and Northeastern isn't playing their best ball recently while Notre Dame is.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): Michigan St.+OT, =Purdue+31, @North Carolina+1, @North Carolina St.+OT, Duke+4, @Louisville+12, @Duke+10, @North Carolina+8
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =Providence-1, Virginia-6, @Duke-30
- Other losses (2): @Pittsburgh-4, Syracuse-5
Key Info: Senior guard Jerian Grant has been Notre Dame's spark this year, leading the team in scoring (16.8ppg) and assists (6.6), but three other players average in double figures for the Irish's excellent offense. Notre Dame played a laughably easy non-conference schedule (ranked #347 of 351 by Pomeroy) but they beat the two tourney-bound Big Ten teams they faced and once in conference they proved they could run with the big boys. Their last five games included a road win over 4-seed Louisville and essentially road wins over 1-seed Duke and 4-seed North Carolina.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =Manhattan+14
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @Harvard-14
- Other losses (10): @Massachusetts-25, =Cal Poly-2, @Saint Mary's-OT, UNC Wilmington-7, Detroit-OT, @William & Mary-16, @Drexel-5, Delaware-5, @UNC Wilmington-5, @Elon-7
Key Info: Three Huskies average in double figures with senior forward Scott Eatherton leading the team both in scoring (14.6) and rebounding (6.4). Both of his numbers are down from last year's 15.9/10.2 averages however as the team is a lot more balanced on the boards. The Huskies are 1-1 against tournament teams, beating 16-seed Mahattan and losing to 13-seed Harvard, both by 14 points. They've had some bad losses in conference play—Drexel, Delaware, Elon—but recovered to win the Colonial Athletic tournament after finishing in a 4-way tie at the top. They haven't been in the Big Dance since 1991.
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Game Analysis: Given Notre Dame's lack of defense, almost any team can score on the Irish and Northeastern's offense is good enough to do so. But the other side of the court will be very one-sided.
Add to that the fact that Notre Dame is playing fantastic basketball right now, while Northeastern is playing sub-par for their season, and this would be a huge upset if the Huskies could pull it off. It's true that both teams are very inconsistent and that increases the odds of an upset, but it also increases the odds of the favored team blowing out the underdog.
So we have to look at the teams' mindsets going in. Notre Dame has been an upset victim in their last four appearances, making several recent first-round exits. This is their highest seed since 2011 when they were a 2-seed and lost to 10-seed Florida State. All of this, we figure, will keep the Irish on task. Meanwhile Northeastern is playing in their first NCAA tournament in a quarter-century, and may fall victim to the "getting there is a victory in itself" mentality.
Vegas Line:
Notre Dame by 12 1/2
Power rating: spread
Notre Dame by 14.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Notre Dame: 83.2%
Northeastern: 16.8%
Vegas sees the game much like the Strength power rating does—a Notre Dame win. The question is by how much.
Bottom line: With Northeastern able to score but probably not defend, a higher scoring game seems likely. The Irish will be on their guard against the upset, we presume, and playing at their best should make quick work of Northeastern...unless the (bad) luck of the Irish strikes again.
Final prediction: Notre Dame 83, Northeastern 67
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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