All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Iowa State Cyclones
Seed: 3
Record: 25-8
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
UAB Blazers
Seed: 14
Record: 19-15
Conference: C-USA
Date: Thursday, March 19
Time: 12:40 pm Eastern
Location: Louisville, KY
Region: South
Channel: truTV
The Blazers blazed through a tough Conference USA tournament while Iowa State made comeback after comeback to win the Big Twelve tourney. This could make for an exciting game as 3 vs. 14's go.
Iowa State UAB
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #13 Strength: #150
Median play: #9 Median play: #171
Road/Neutral Rank: #14 Road/Neutral Rank: #179
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#13 Sagarin: #144
Pomeroy: #13 Pomeroy: #121
Offense: #7 Offense: #130
Defense: #82 Defense: #130
LRMC: #12 LRMC: #129
BPI: #15 BPI: #134
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #9 2nd half/season: #112
Last 6 games: #9 Last 6 games: #166
Injury correction: #12 Injury correction: #150
Consistency: #198 Consistency: #38
Deep Run Rank: #8 Deep Run Rank: #56
Best Shot: #14 Best Shot: #65
Schedule Strength: #7 Schedule Strength: #147
After UAB's unlikely conference tournament run you'd never have figured they are one of the more consistent teams out there. And Iowa State's antics are hardly reflected by their very average consistency numbers; if we measured half-by-half, rather than game-by-game, we suspect they'd be among the most schizophrenic teams out there. UAB is calm by comparison, and very balanced on offense and defense compared to the Cyclones. They are also not a great road team; note that the C-USA tournament was played in Birmingham.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (14): Georgia St.+23, Arkansas+18, @Iowa+15, Oklahoma St.+2, @West Virginia+2, Kansas+5, Texas+3, West Virginia+20, @Oklahoma St.+5, @Texas+8, Oklahoma+7, =Texas+2, =Oklahoma+2, @Kansas+4
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =Maryland-9, @Baylor-1, @Kansas-13, @Oklahoma-11, Baylor-9
- Other losses (3): =South Carolina-4, @Texas Tech-5, @Kansas St.-1
Key Info: Iowa State has more wins against the field than anyone, including all the #1 seeds, including Kentucky. Most of that comes from playing a round-robin schedule in a 7-bid league, but they beat 5-seed Arkansas and 8-seed Iowa early on. The Cyclones have their usual complement of transfers and scorers, with 5 players—nearly 6—in double figures led by Georges Niang's 15.5. Their trademark lately has been the comeback, and they've had some insane ones, coming back from 20 down against Oklahoma, 13 down vs. Texas, and 17 vs. Kansas in their last five wins.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =Wisconsin-29, =UCLA-12, LSU-9, @North Carolina-31
- Other losses (11): Louisiana Monroe-9, South Florida-OT, =Florida-9, Illinois St.-4, @Chattanooga-16, @Louisiana Tech-3, @UTEP-2, @North Texas-3, @Rice-OT, @Florida Atlantic-3, @FIU-4
Key Info: UAB doesn't have any wins against the field, in stark contrast to Iowa State. They did play four powerhouse programs but weren't particularly competitive in the end. The Blazers hit their stride once conference play started and peaked with a 20-point win over Louisiana Tech, but lost to lowly FAU and FIU in back-to-back road games to finish the regular season. Playing at home in the C-USA tournament, however, they beat Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, and Middle Tennessee to capture the crown. The Blazers are very balanced on offense, led by guard Robert Brown's 13.1 points, with six others in the 7.0 to 8.0 range.
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Game Analysis: Iowa State is an "unbalanced" team in that their offense is far more efficient than their defense. On the other hand UAB couldn't be more balanced according to Pomeroy. The problem for the Blazers is that Iowa State still outclasses them on both sides of the court.
To overcome this, teams need to shake things up, usually with turnovers, rebounding, etc. Iowa State has been mentioned as a "vulnerable" team due to these factors, but UAB doesn't fit the profile of the "giant-killer" and their high level of consistency doesn't suggest they can rise to the occasion. Only their recent upsets of quality teams points to the possibility of an upset. And while Iowa State has shown it can make a great comeback, it also means that they can put themselves in a bind with great frequency.
The Blazers played very well at home this year, but not so well on the road. That helped them have a solid year in the C-USA and win the tournament in Birmingham, but they didn't beat a tournament team all year and it will be a tall order to make ISU their first victim.
Vegas Line:
Iowa State by 13 1/2
Power rating: spread
Iowa State by 16.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Iowa State: 90.8%
UAB: 9.2%
The Strength power rating favors the Cyclones by a bit more than Vegas, and the odds-to-win game-comparison calculation is a bit steeper than the normal 85% chance that a 3-seed historically wins vs. 14 seeds.
Bottom line: This might be the game where Iowa State finally doesn't have to make a big comeback. In fact, we think it might be the Blazers that have the comeback moment. After the Cyclones jump to an early big lead—reflecting the slow start to UAB's season—the Blazers embark on a run at the end and perhaps Iowa State will be the one trying to hold off a charge for once.
Final prediction: Iowa State 82, UAB 75
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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