All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Baylor Bears
Seed: 3
Record: 24-9
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Georgia State Panthers
Seed: 14
Record: 24-9
Conference: Sun Belt
Date: Thursday, March 19
Time: 1:40 pm Eastern
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Region: West
Channel: TBS
This is already the third 3 vs. 14 seed game scheduled before 2pm on the opening day. Does the NCAA want people to start off with bracket wins to keep them interested ? Georgia State might put up more of a fight than your average 14 seed, however.
Baylor Georgia State
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #16 Strength: #79
Median play: #15 Median play: #80
Road/Neutral Rank: #15 Road/Neutral Rank: #122
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#12 Sagarin: #74
Pomeroy: #15 Pomeroy: #71
Offense: #13 Offense: #58
Defense: #33 Defense: #106
LRMC: #14 LRMC: #54
BPI: #19 BPI: #79
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #12 2nd half/season: #72
Last 6 games: #14 Last 6 games: #107
Injury correction: #14 Injury correction: #77 / #98
Consistency: #327 Consistency: #207
Deep Run Rank: #29 Deep Run Rank: #50
Best Shot: #16 Best Shot: #48
Schedule Strength: #6 Schedule Strength: #195
Baylor's rankings are all in the 12 to 16 range, even their recent play, but their consistency is among the lowest in the country. That, coupled with Georgia State's very respectable power rankings—from #79 in Strength and BPI, up to #54 in LRMC—give this game a chance to be a close one. What hurts Georgia State is their poor road/neutral court play. They will be considerably closer to home in Jacksonville than the Bears, but that probably doesn't count, and they also might be without key player Ryan Harrow.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): Stephen F. Austin+16, Texas Southern+26, New Mexico St.+11, Iowa St.+1, Oklahoma+11, Texas+23, @West Virginia+18, @Iowa St.+9, West Virginia+12, =West Virginia+10
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @Oklahoma-10, Kansas-1, @Oklahoma St.-11, Oklahoma St.-9, @Kansas-10, @Texas-OT, @Kansas-10
- Other losses (2): =Illinois-8, @Kansas St.-2
Key Info: Like every other Big Twelve team, Baylor played 12 games vs. NCAA-bound conference opponents, plus two more in the B12 tourney. The Bears went 7-7 losing to 2-seed Kansas three times but beating 3-seed Iowa State twice. They also beat a 12-seed, a 16-seed, and a 15-seed by 16, 26, and 11 points. All three of those games were at home, as were 4 of their 7 other tourney-team wins. All of their losses were road or neutral losses, but overall the Bears didn't play exceptionally poorly on the road. Four Bears score in double figures, led by Taurean Prince's 13.8, while big forward Rico Gathers averages a double double at 11.7 points and 11.6 rebounds.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @Iowa St.-23
- Other losses (8): @Colorado St.-10, @Old Dominion-OT, @Green Bay-17, Texas St.-OT, @Louisiana Lafayette-4, @Appalachian St.-5, @Georgia Southern-4, @Arkansas Little Rock-9
Key Info: Georgia State only lost one game at home all year, and that was in overtime. But they lost 8 times on the road, and didn't beat a single NCAA tournament team all year, losing at Iowa State by 23 in their only attept. The Panthers have two key players—guards RJ Hunter (19.8 ppg) and Ryan Harrow (18.7). Harrow missed several games recently and barely played in Georgia State's Sun Belt tournament run, and it's questionable whether he'll be close to 100% for Baylor.
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Game Analysis: It's a good sign that Georgia State could play so well in the Sun Belt tournament without Ryan Harrow, but they'll need him against Baylor. And it was a bad sign that he was unable to play more than 6 minutes in their last two wins. Like teammate Hunter, he accouts for a quarter of the Panthers' points.
Baylor is an erratic team but it pretty much manifests in winning big at home vs. strong teams and losing big on the road—also to strong teams. They lost only to two non-tournament teams, and both rate better than Georgia State.
Vegas Line:
Baylor by 8 1/2
Power rating: spread
Baylor by 10.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Baylor: 75.5%
Georgia St: 24.5%
14-seeds normally win 15% of games vs. 3-seeds, but here we show the Panthers with a 25% chance of success. It's not because Baylor is bad, but rather that Georgia State is an excellent 14-seed—and because Baylor's game performances are more variable than average. Vegas notes this too and makes the Bears a single-digit favorite.
Bottom line: If you want to pick a 14 to beat a 3, this might be the one. Or not, since Georgia State probably won't be at full power with one of their two key players likely far below 100%. Things have to look pretty solid to take a stab at a bigger upset like this, and the stars just don't quite align. Judging by the score of the Panthers' last win—38 to 36 over Georgia Southern—we'll go with the lower end for total score.
Final prediction: Baylor 63, Georgia State 58
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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