All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Virginia Cavaliers
Seed: 2
Record: 29-3
Conference: ACC
vs.
Belmont Bruins
Seed: 15
Record: 22-10
Conference: Ohio Valley
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 3:10 pm Eastern
Location: Charlotte, NC
Region: East
Channel: truTV
After being a 1-seed last year and a favorite to repeat, the Cavaliers fell to a 2-seed despite a better record than in 2013-2014.
Virginia Belmont
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #7 Strength: #149
Median play: #8 Median play: #154
Road/Neutral Rank: #3 Road/Neutral Rank: #170
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#4 Sagarin: #150
Pomeroy: #4 Pomeroy: #149
Offense: #27 Offense: #64
Defense: #1 Defense: #259
LRMC: #7 LRMC: #145
BPI: #4 BPI: #151
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #6 2nd half/season: #146
Last 6 games: #7 Last 6 games: #70
Injury correction: #4 / #14 Injury correction: #147
Consistency: #254 Consistency: #105
Deep Run Rank: #6 Deep Run Rank: #59
Best Shot: #8 Best Shot: #61
Schedule Strength: #35 Schedule Strength: #253
Virginia is a great team in a year full of great teams. The Cavaliers boast the nation's most efficient defense and are top ten or top five in every power rating. Belmont isn't a bad 15-seed by any means and in terms of very recent play they're a very good one. The question for Virginia is whether Justin Anderson is healthy for the tournament—he's back, but hasn't played well at all. Whether he returns to form or not could be the difference between a Final Four run and bowing out after the Sweet Sixteen, according to our 'injury correction' metric.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): @Maryland+11, @VCU+17, Harvard+49, Davidson+11, North Carolina St.+10, @Notre Dame+6, @North Carolina+11, Louisville+5, @North Carolina St.+4
- Losses to tournament teams (3): Duke-6, @Louisville-2, @North Carolina-4
- Other losses (0): none
Key Info: How does a team go 29-3 and get a 2-seed? When last year a 28-6 record was enough for a 1-seed? Simple: play in a historically great year for top teams, and lose to your main competition for that 1-seed. Virginia did everything right for most of the season, winning their first 19 games. They lost to Duke, won 9 more, then lost two of three (to Louisville and North Carolina, both 4-seeds, both on the road)....and that was enough to demote them. A factor in their late "slide" was the absence of Justin Anderson, the team's 2nd leading scorer (12.3 ppg, 47% 3-point shooter). He was out with an injured hand (and an appendectomy) and missed 8 games including the Louisville loss, then returned for the ACC tournament but went 0 for 6 in 2 games, clearly not close to 100%. Malcolm Brogdon leads the Cavs with 13.9 points per game.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @VCU-27, @Butler-11
- Other losses (8): @Wright St.-3, Evansville-3, Wright St.-8, @Eastern Illinois-11, @Murray St.-15, @Eastern Kentucky-12, @Morehead St.-2, @Jacksonville St.-2
Key Info: Belmont doesn't have any wins over the NCAA field; nor do they have a win in the NCAA tournament after getting there six times since 2006. They were a very trendy upset pick against Georgetown in 2012 but it seemed that "word got out" to the Hoyas and they won, 74-59. This year's model isn't as good as some of the past Bruin teams, but they put on a good 7-game run to end the season and won the Ohio Valley tournament by upsetting a very good Murray State team. The Bruins are led by Craig Bradshaw's 18.1 points per game.
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Game Analysis: Justin Anderson's status doesn't matter for the Belmont game, but it does matter for later on in the tournament, possibly as soon as the next round.
Anderson couldn't shoot the ball effectively against FSU or UNC, indicating his broken pinky finger is still bothering him. The recent appendectomy can't be making things easier. So far he's probably been a liability, and Virginia needs him at 100% to make a run at the Final Four.
Vegas Line:
Virginia by 16 1/2
Power rating: spread
Virginia by 20.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Virginia: 92.9%
Belmont: 7.1%
At a 16 1/2 point spread, it seems that Vegas is giving Belmont more than the typical 6% chance of upset that a 15-seed has. At 92.9% the game-comparison system is pretty much in line with historical standards, and that's based on a 20 point average win for Virginia. But Belmont has been much, much better very recently, while at the same time Virginia has lost 2 of 3. Over the last 5 games, Belmont is only about 10 points worse, and 15 points over the whole of Anderson's absence.
Bottom line: The Murray State upset was one thing; this would be Belmont's crowning moment. But don't think that VIrginia is reeling by losing 2 of three. They played better in those losses than most teams have played all year. Unless the Cavs overlook the Bruins they won't become upset victims, but isn't that always the case in the 2 vs. 15 games?
Final prediction: Virginia 68, Belmont 57
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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