All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 2
Record: 32-2
Conference: West Coast
vs.
North Dakota State Bison
Seed: 15
Record: 23-9
Conference: Summit
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 9:50 pm Eastern
Location: Seattle, WA
Region: South
Channel: TNT
Gonzaga, one of the nation's tallest teams, faces one of the shortest teams.
Gonzaga North Dakota State
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #6 Strength: #193
Median play: #5 Median play: #195
Road/Neutral Rank: #9 Road/Neutral Rank: #223
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#7 Sagarin: #167
Pomeroy: #6 Pomeroy: #151
Offense: #6 Offense: #194
Defense: #20 Defense: #124
LRMC: #4 LRMC: #192
BPI: #5 BPI: #166
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #10 2nd half/season: #190
Last 6 games: #11 Last 6 games: #175
Injury correction: #10 Injury correction: #193
Consistency: #113 Consistency: #94
Deep Run Rank: #3 Deep Run Rank: #63
Best Shot: #13 Best Shot: #66
Schedule Strength: #83 Schedule Strength: #284
Not much worthy discussing here; both teams are pretty consistent and pretty far apart, quality-wise. Gonzaga's later play wasn't quite top-5 worthy, but their offense nearly was.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): SMU+16, =Georgia+12, @St. John's+7, @UCLA+13, Texas Southern+40, @BYU+7, =BYU+16
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @Arizona-OT, BYU-3
- Other losses (0): none
Key Info: Gonzaga's very best performances were early on, when in addition to beating Sacrament State 104-58 and St. Joe's 94-42, they topped 6-seed SMU 72-56 and 10-seed Georgia 88-76. Even their loss to Arizona—in overtime, on the road—was a highlight. They continued to reach those heights occasionally again throughout the year but after topping UCLA 87-74 they only played one more NCAA-bound team. They beat BYU 87-80 on the road to kick off the WCC season, but lost at home to the Cougars 73-70. They won the rubber match in the tournament, 91-75. BYU didn't even make the field of 64, as it turns out. Gonzaga is led by transfer forward Kyle Wiltjer's 16.7 points; he adds 6 rebounds. They are one of the tallest teams in the country with a 6' 10", 7' 1", 6' 10" front line.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): Hampton+8
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @Texas-35, @Iowa-31
- Other losses (7): @Southern Miss-13, @Montana-12, =Kent St.-1, @South Dakota-4, @IPFW-6, @South Dakota St.-10, @Oral Roberts-16
Key Info: North Dakota State beat 16-seed Hampton and that became a bona-fide NCAA tourney-team win after the Pirates beat Manhattan to join the real bracket. The Bison's other field experience wasn't as good as they opened with an 85-50 loss at Texas then travelled to Iowa to lose 87-56. That's what they get with an 11-seed and an 8-seed, what will a 2-seed feel like? The Bison have a strong weapon in Lawrence Alexander (18.9 ppg) but they're a very small team facing a very large team.
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Game Analysis: If height didn't matter in basketball then almost every player would be around 6 feet tall. So while some teams get away with playing short lineups, the very best teams are usually tall. This year, among the 4 tallest teams you'll find two 1-seeds and a 2-seed. Among the 16 shortest teams you will find no one who made the tournament.
It will be interesting to see what North Dakota State can do against Gonzaga, but given their previous attempts—including those against Iowa, the 7th tallest, and Texas, the 18th tallest, it doesn't bode well for the Bison. They do play a slow tempo, so that might keep the score in check, but those other teams managed to speed the game up.
Vegas Line:
Gonzaga by 18
Power rating: spread
Gonzaga by 23.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Gonzaga: 97.0%
N Dakota St: 3.0%
Our 23 point, 97% estimate is without any advantage for playing close to home. Gonzaga is playing in-state, but quite a ways from Spokane. With 1/2 adjustment the numbers would be 24.8 points and 97.7%. Either way, they exceed even the high standards that 2-seed have set by winning 94.2% of those matchups.
Bottom line: Gonzaga is too good and too tall for North Dakota State, even better and taller than Iowa and Texas. Expect a similar result.
Final prediction: Gonzaga 80, North Dakota State 50
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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