All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Arizona Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 31-3
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Texas Southern Tigers
Seed: 15
Record: 22-12
Conference: Southwest Athletic
Date: Thursday, March 19
Time: 2:10 pm Eastern
Location: Portland, OR
Region: West
Channel: TNT
While three other games—all 3 vs. 14 seeds—are on, you could switch to this one, a mismatched 2 vs. 15 seed contest.
Arizona Texas Southern
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #3 Strength: #233
Median play: #2 Median play: #216
Road/Neutral Rank: #4 Road/Neutral Rank: #217
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#3 Sagarin: #227
Pomeroy: #2 Pomeroy: #207
Offense: #11 Offense: #177
Defense: # 3 Defense: #220
LRMC: #2 LRMC: #147
BPI: #3 BPI: #211
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #1 2nd half/season: #271
Last 6 games: #1 Last 6 games: #214
Injury correction: #3 Injury correction: #208
Consistency: #238 Consistency: #145
Deep Run Rank: #4 Deep Run Rank: #65
Best Shot: #3 Best Shot: #67
Schedule Strength: #59 Schedule Strength: #319
Only the LRMC thinks this game could be competitive, ranking the Tigers 60 rungs higher than anyone else, and that's mainly due to the Michigan State upset and another impressive win at Kansas State. But despite those and many other tough early opponents, the SWAC is so bad that Texas Southern ended up with the 319th hardest schedule in the country. Arizona is anywhere from #2 to #4 in the power ratings, but over the last half of the season they've been better than anyone else, Kentucky included.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): UC Irvine+17, =San Diego St.+2, Gonzaga+OT, @Oregon+18, Utah+18, Oregon+34, UCLA+10, @Utah+6, =UCLA+6, =Oregon+28
- Losses to tournament teams (0): none
- Other losses (3): @UNLV-4, @Oregon St.-2, @Arizona St.-3
Key Info: Arizona went 10-0 against tournament-bound foes, pretty impressive. But they had three losses against non-tourney opponents, all three on the road and against teams that ranked 92, 105, and 62 in Strength. Since the last loss the Wildcats have been on a roll, winning every game by double digits except for 6-points wins at Utah and vs. UCLA. Freshman Stanley Johnson leads four key scorers at 14.1 points and adds 6.6 rebounds, while Brandon Ashley, who missed the 2nd half of last season, is #2 with 12.3 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @Michigan St.+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @Eastern Washington-24, @Indiana-19, @SMU-13, @Baylor-26, @Gonzaga-40, @New Mexico St.-2
- Other losses (6): @Tennessee-12, @Norfolk St.-10, @Florida-25, @Auburn-1, @Arkansas Pine Bluff-4, Prairie View A&M-3
Key Info: Texas Southern got a lot of experience against the NCAA field, seven games in all, all of them on the road. They flopped in some (Gonzaga) but were close against New Mexico State, and amazingly they upset Michigan State in East Lansing in overtime. All of this led to a 3-10 start, but once conference season was in full swing the Tigers finished on a 19-2 run. Not that they played any better; actually they weren't quite as good in the 2nd half of the year. But the SWAC schedule is full of cupcakes and the Tigers feasted.
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Game Analysis: Texas Southern won't be afraid of Arizona. Not after playing Indiana, Tennessee, SMU, Baylor, Florida, Gonzaga, and Michigan State, all on the road. It's been a while since their last game against a major-conference foe (December 28, when they beat Kansas State) but this team won't have the usual 15-seed attitude. Head coach Mike Davis took a team (Indiana) to the finals just over a decade ago.
Arizona, however, is not even your average 2-seed. In a year where 9 or 10 teams had a 1-seed profile, the Wildcats still stand out as a very strong 2. They've been playing their best basketball recently—maybe, anyone's best.
Vegas Line:
Arizona by 23
Power rating: spread
Arizona by 27.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Arizona: 97.9%
Tx Southern: 2.1%
When you have a 2-seed that looks like a 1-seed and a 15-seed that looks like a 16-seed, this is what you get: odds similar to those of a 1 vs. 16. A 2 vs. 15 game should be a 94% proposition, but we have Arizona a 98% favorite. The Vegas line reflects the mismatch and the Strength power rating expands on it.
Bottom line: Against another 2-seed, Texas Southern might look like one of the better 15-seed upset picks in recent memory. They've played a schedule unlike most 15-seeds, even if the tough early schedule was watered down by one of the easiest 2nd-half schedules ever seen. The Tigers might not be ready for the Wildcats' punch after so many cupcakes, but they'll adjust and play without fear. In the end, though we can't see anything but an Arizona win.
Final prediction: Arizona 81, Texas Southern 56
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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