All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Villanova Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 32-2
Conference: Big East
vs.
Lafayette Leopards
Seed: 16
Record: 20-12
Conference: Patriot League
Date: Thursday, March 19
Time: 6:50 pm Eastern
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Region: East
Channel: TBS
Two Pennsylvania teams meet in Pittsburgh. Villanova is a slight favorite.
Villanova Lafayette
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #5 Strength: #190
Median play: #4 Median play: #193
Road/Neutral Rank: #7 Road/Neutral Rank: #172
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#6 Sagarin: #187
Pomeroy: #5 Pomeroy: #195
Offense: #4 Offense: #40
Defense: #13 Defense: #338
LRMC: #3 LRMC: #182
BPI: #6 BPI: #185
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #3 2nd half/season: #228
Last 6 games: #2 Last 6 games: #144
Injury correction: #5 Injury correction: #189
Consistency: #251 Consistency: #313
Deep Run Rank: #5 Deep Run Rank: #66
Best Shot: #6 Best Shot: #58
Schedule Strength: #33 Schedule Strength: #256
You know it's a hell of a year when a team like Villanova has their #1 seed credentials challenged at 32-2. Across the board the Wildcats are top ten, often top 5, except in defensive efficiency where they lag at #13. But Lafayette is no slouch for a 16-seed, ranking in the top 200 in general with an offense coming in at #40! That's paired with the #338 defense, unfortunately. Both teams are pretty inconsistent so the range of final scores is spread pretty wide.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =VCU+24, Butler+12, @St. John's+18, Xavier+13, Georgetown+16, @Providence+6, @Butler+3, Providence+28, @Xavier+12, St. John's+37, =Providence+2, =Xavier+17
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @Georgetown-20
- Other losses (1): @Seton Hall-OT
Key Info: Villanova is the "forgotten" 1-seed, the one nobody's picking to win it all (or make the final vs. Kentucky). Maybe it's because they play in the 'new' Big East, or because they exited early last year (the last several years, actually). But the Big East placed 6 of 10 teams in the tourney, and last year's loss was to eventual champ UConn. And the Wildcats have been beating strong competition all year. They lost to Seton Hall when the Pirates were doing well, and to Georgetown in late January, and haven't lost since. Darrun Hilliard moved into the #1 scoring spot this year with 14 per game, and after that it's very balanced with the next five around 10.0. Maybe that's the problem—no dominant superstars?
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @Robert Morris+27
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @West Virginia-27, @Kansas-27
- Other losses (10): @Yale-22, Navy-4, @Bucknell-10, American-2, @Holy Cross-1, Lehigh-4, Boston University-14, @Loyola MD-19, @American-11, Colgate-12
Key Info: Lafayette started the season with what would be their best game—beating fellow 16-seed Robert Morris 77-50 on the road. It was their only win over a team in the field; in the next two tries, they instead lost by 27 points, both to West Virginia and Kansas. In their Patriot-League-winning tournament run, they beat Boston by 25, almost matching the Robert Morris win. But they showed they can lay some eggs, too, during their 9-9 conference campaign. Senior Dan Trist is the team's leading scorer and rebounder at 17.3 and 6.7 per game while shooting 58%. The team as a whole shoots the ball very well (#2 in the nation on three pointers), one key to their powerful offense.
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Game Analysis: Let's make it clear from the outset—we're not going to pick an upset, and probably will never pick a 16 over 1-seed. That said, this is an interesting game if only due to Lafayette's great shooting. Any team that makes its threes has a chance against anyone. And it doesn't matter too much if they allow a lot of points—they just have to keep scoring.
If Villanova's defense were at all questionable—if they were one of these teams like Notre Dame with a great offense and average defense—then the outcome might be in doubt. But Villanova's defense is nearly top ten level, coupled with a top five offense. And that doesn't even consider how bad Lafayette's defense is. They don't run a particularly fast tempo to achieve this disparity, either; they're just good on offense and bad on defense.
So a lot depends on whether Lafayette makes their 3 pointers. If they do, it could be interesting. If they don't, it's an even bigger blowout than expected.
Vegas Line:
Villanova by 22 1/2
Power rating: spread
Villanova by 23.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Villanova: 93.3%
Lafayette: 6.7%
The historical percentage for this matchup is 100% for the 1-seed, so any bone thrown to Lafayette is probably false hope. This percentage looks more like a 2 vs. 15 matchup, and that's due to Lafayette being a strong 16-seed.
Bottom line: Villanova is playing particularly well lately, while Lafayette has stepped up their game, too. The Wildcats rate 27 points better than the Leopards over the last 4 games, and for Lafayette this matches the margin of the Kansas and West Virginia games. Those games were road games for the Leopards, so we'll go with a 24-point spread.
Final prediction: Villanova 86, Lafayette 62
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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