All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Xavier Musketeers
Seed: 6
Record: 22-13
Conference: Big East
vs.
Georgia State Panthers
Seed: 14
Record: 25-9
Conference: Sun Belt
Date: Satuday, March 21
Time: 6:10 pm Eastern
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Region: West
Channel: TNT
We ended up picking against Xavier, and of course didn't have Baylor losing to Georgia State. One of the two is Sweet Sixteen bound.
Xavier Georgia State
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #23 Strength: #79
Median play: #22 Median play: #80
Road/Neutral Rank: #39 Road/Neutral Rank: #122
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#24 Sagarin: #74
Pomeroy: #26 Pomeroy: #71
Offense: #28 Offense: #58
Defense: #55 Defense: #106
LRMC: #19 LRMC: #54
BPI: #28 BPI: #79
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #24 2nd half/season: #66
Last 6 games: #21 Last 6 games: #61
Injury correction: #23 Injury correction: #77 / #98
Consistency: #161 Consistency: #207
Deep Run Rank: #23 Deep Run Rank: #50
Best Shot: #26 Best Shot: #48
Schedule Strength: #10 Schedule Strength: #195
Georgia State is an incredible 14-seed, which is why their upset of Baylor was not nearly as shocking as UAB beating Iowa State. And they're doing all of this without one of their key players—maybe they've found a way to play without him.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): Stephen F. Austin+18, Georgetown+17, @Georgetown+13, Providence+9, @Cincinnati+2, Butler+17, =Butler+OT, =Georgetown+2, =Mississippi+19
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @Butler-12, @Villanova-13, @Providence-OT, St. John's-8, @St. John's-1, Villanova-12, =Villanova-17
- Other losses (6): =UTEP-4, =Long Beach St.-3, @Auburn-OT, @DePaul-3, @Seton Hall-8, Creighton-OT
Key Info: Xavier played some of their best basketball early, beating tournament-bound Stephen F. Austin 81-63 and should've-been-tournament-bound Murray State 89-62. But they managed to lose to UTEP and Long Beach State in the Wooden Legacy tournament, and then Auburn before the Big East schedule started. Once in conference, they were even-steven against tournament teams, going 7-7. The Musketeers beat Butler twice and Georgetown thrice, while losing to Villanova three times and St. John's two more. And they continued to lose to bad teams, falling to DePaul, Seton Hall (during the Pirates' slide), and Creighton.
Xavier has very balanced scoring—that is, no standouts—but that makes for an efficient offense; 6-10 center Matt Stainbrook leads with 12.0 points and 6.8 rebounds. He upped that to 20 in the win against the Rebels.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =Baylor+1
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @Iowa St.-23
- Other losses (8): @Colorado St.-10, @Old Dominion-OT, @Green Bay-17, Texas St.-OT, @Louisiana Lafayette-4, @Appalachian St.-5, @Georgia Southern-4, @Arkansas Little Rock-9
Key Info: Georgia State only lost one game at home all year, and that was in overtime. But they lost 8 times on the road, and didn't beat a single NCAA tournament team in the regular season, losing at Iowa State by 23 in their only attept. But that didn't stop them from shocking another Big 12 team, Baylor.
The Panthers have two key players—guards RJ Hunter (19.8 ppg) and Ryan Harrow (18.7). Harrow missed several games recently and barely played in Georgia State's Sun Belt tournament run, and he missed the Baylor game altogether. Hunter led with 16 against the Bears, and Harrow is again questionable vs. Xavier.
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Game Analysis: Xavier faced a play-in game winner, which is always tough, and it wasn't even a contest. You can say that Mississippi was "tired" from the BYU game, but Xavier just played a great game.
Georgia State is on a good run and that's particularly impressive while missing one of their two best players. He'll probably be out again, or at least far below 100%. Even though they just beat a 3-seed, it's hard to take them again without Harrow.
Vegas Line:
Xavier by 6
Power rating: spread
Xavier by 7.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Xavier: 70.3%
Georgia St: 29.7%
6-seeds are historically 12-2 against 14-seeds, or 86%. Since Georgia State is such a good 14-seed, 70% doesn't seem far off the mark. The average result is nearly an 8 point win, while Vegas is calling for a 6-point win.
Bottom line: Xavier's win over Mississippi was impressive, but we've seen the occasional great game from the Musketeers only to see that followed by a terrible game. Likewise, we can only count Georgia State's win over Baylor a fluke, too, and unless they get Harrow back at 100% we're unlikely to change our mind. We might see both teams have an off-game, but in that case the gap between them is about the same.
Final prediction: Xavier 72, Georgia State 65
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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