All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Georgetown Hoyas
Seed: 4
Record: 22-10
Conference: Big East
vs.
Utah Utes
Seed: 5
Record: 25-8
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Saturday, March 21
Time: 7:45 pm Eastern
Location: Portland, OR
Region: South
Channel: CBS
Georgetown won't be upset by a double-digit seed this year, that's guaranteed. They could still lose to lower-seeded Utah, though it wouldn't be much of an upset.
Georgetown Utah
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #24 Strength: #8
Median play: #38 Median play: #7
Road/Neutral Rank: #24 Road/Neutral Rank: #12
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#23 Sagarin: #8
Pomeroy: #22 Pomeroy: #8
Offense: #41 Offense: #18
Defense: #25 Defense: #8
LRMC: #27 LRMC: #9
BPI: #20 BPI: #12
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #19 2nd half/season: #7
Last 6 games: #39 Last 6 games: #27
Injury correction: #22 Injury correction: #7
Consistency: #215 Consistency: #324
Deep Run Rank: #27 Deep Run Rank: #16
Best Shot: #25 Best Shot: #5
Schedule Strength: #11 Schedule Strength: #48
Georgetown is probably the weakest 4-seed, while Utah is probably the strongest 5-seed, at least according to the various power ratings. That essentially makes the Utes the favorite in this game. While Utah hasn't played particularly well lately, they've done equally well for the full year and the 2nd half of the season. What they aren't is consistent, so their first-round performance doesn't necessarily make for a trend.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): Robert Morris+14, =Indiana+OT, Butler+2, Villanova+20, St. John's+22, @Butler+6, =Eastern Washington+10
- Losses to tournament teams (10): =Wisconsin-3, =Butler-6, Kansas-5, @Xavier-17, @Providence-OT, Xavier-13, Providence-3, @Villanova-16, @St. John's-11, =Xavier-2
- Other losses (0): none
Key Info: The Hoyas are the first team we've encountered with no losses outside of tournament teams (there are four others: Kentucky, Virginia, Gonzaga, and West Virginia). They were 6-10 against the field, with most of those (4 wins and 8 losses) coming against Big East opponents. Interestingly one loss to Butler was in a non-conference game in the Bahamas, so technically they were 2-3 in non-conference games against tourney foes.
Junior guard D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera leads the team for a second straight year with 16.2 ppg; against Eastern Washington he had 25.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): Wichita St.+OT, @BYU+4, UCLA+32, =Stephen F. Austin+7
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @San Diego St.-4, @Kansas-3, @Arizona-18, @UCLA-10, @Oregon-11, Arizona-6, =Oregon-3
- Other losses (1): @Washington-9
Key Info: Now we can see why Utah's recent play didn't decline despite their late losses—two monster performances (beating Arizona State 83-41, and Stanford 80-56) kept their Last 6 Games average very high (#12), despite losing three of those games—but now the biggest one has fallen off of the "Last 6". If anything, Utah is getting more schizophrenic lately—able to beat anyone, but vulnerable to upset. The Utes' "Last 5 Games" ranking is just #34.
On defense the Utes hold their opponents to the 5th lowest effective field goal percentage in the country. On offense, Utah's slow tempo (#331 in average possession length) means that only three players average in double figures (and just barely). Guard Delon Wright (14.9ppg) is shooting 53% from the floor. Against the Lumberjacks Jakob Poeltl led with 18 points.
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Game Analysis: Georgetown got the upset-monkey off their back by beating 13-seed Eastern Washington. Utah also survived a challenge from 13-seed Stephen F. Austin. Order has been restored; it's a 4 vs. 5-seed matchup as God intended.
But Utah is no normal 5-seed, as they rate as a 2- or 3-seed by most measures. They're an unpredictable team, and have won only half of their last 8 games, alternating L's and W's. Georgetown counters by playing at almost exactly the same level its last four times out. Is that level high enough to beat Utah? Depends on which Utah shows up.
Vegas Line:
Utah by 4 1/2
Power rating: spread
Utah by 5.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Georgetown: 33.6%
Utah: 66.4%
Unsurprisingly, the Utes are favored by Vegas by a handful, pretty close to the Strength power rating's estimate. Utah's 2/3 chance of winning is not only high for a 5-seed facing a 4-seed, but it's higher than the average 4-seed would expect in this game (55%).
Bottom line: We had Georgetown avoiding an early upset to break their bad habit, but we don't think they'll get past the Utes, who will have to break their own habit (alternating wins and losses) to advance.
Final prediction: Utah 64, Georgetown 61
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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