All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Oklahoma Sooners
Seed: 3
Record: 23-10
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Dayton Flyers
Seed: 11
Record: 27-8
Conference: Atlantic 10
Date: Sunday, March 22
Time: 6:10 pm Eastern
Location: Columbus, OH
Region: East
Channel: TNT
Dayton gets a third "home" game in a row.
Oklahoma Dayton
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #11 Strength: #52
Median play: #19 Median play: #60
Road/Neutral Rank: #18 Road/Neutral Rank: #63
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#10 Sagarin: #51
Pomeroy: #9 Pomeroy: #45
Offense: #50 Offense: #76
Defense: #5 Defense: #34
LRMC: #11 LRMC: #40
BPI: #11 BPI: #32
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #12 2nd half/season: #54
Last 6 games: #14 Last 6 games: #49
Injury correction: #11 Injury correction: #54
Consistency: #270 Consistency: #35
Deep Run Rank: #15 Deep Run Rank: #26
Best Shot: #12 Best Shot: #49
Schedule Strength: #3 Schedule Strength: #105
Oklahoma lost 10 games this year but played one of the hardest schedules in the country. Dayton lost 8 games against a much easier schedule. The Sooners rank 9th, 10th, or 11th in all the surveyed power ratings, with a top 5 defense. Dayton is anywhere from the 30s to the 50s. But the Flyers are playing close to home for a third straight time after winning two NCAA tournament games—the play-in game and the first round.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =UCLA+10, =Butler+13, Baylor+10, @Texas+21, Oklahoma St.+17, @Oklahoma St.+8, West Virginia+19, Iowa St.+11, Texas+2, Kansas+2, =Oklahoma St.+15, =Albany+9
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =Wisconsin-13, @West Virginia-21, @Kansas-7, @Baylor-11, @Iowa St.-7, =Iowa St.-2
- Other losses (4): @Creighton-2, =Washington-2, Kansas St.-OT, @Kansas St.-3
Key Info: The Sooners got some decent early wins against UCLA and Butler but also took hits from Creighton and Washington. They lost to 1-seed Wisconsin 69-56 on a neutral court. In the Big Twelve they hit a rough patch and lost 4 of 5 recovering to win 10 of their last 13. In that stretch they beat six tourney teams including 3-seed Iowa State and 2-seed Kansas, but lost to the Cyclones twice.
Buddy Heidl repeated as the Sooners' leading scorer at 17.5 ppg this year, but against Albany TaShawn Thomas led with 18.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): Mississippi+4, @VCU+4, Boise St.+1, Providence+13
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @Arkansas-14, @Davidson-17, =VCU-6
- Other losses (5): =Connecticut-11, @Massachusetts-2, @George Washington-OT, @Duquesne-10, @La Salle-2
Key Info: Dayton is now 17-0 at home after edging Boise State by a point in a very unfair predicament for the Broncos. But hey, a win's a win, and that's 17 of them. Now they play in Columbus, 70 miles down the road in what will be another home court atmosphere. Of course, it's not like they were giant-killers at home; their best wins were over two Play-in teams, Mississippi and Boise State, and they also beat Richmond and Rhode Island. They didn't face Davidson or VCU at home—though they did beat the Rams on the road while they were in somewhat of a downward spiral.
Three flyers average double figures. Jordan Sibert is their leading scorer at 16.5 points per game; he had 13 against Boise while forward Kendall Pollard led with 17. Against Providence Dyshawn Pierre had 20.
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Game Analysis: Before the play-in matches, Dayton looked like a great pick to win a couple of games. They had the play-in game in Dayton, and the next two games were right down the road. Then came the Boise State game, where the Flyers barely won. We changed our opinion at that point and went with Providence...mistake.
We were concerned about whether the "play-in teams do really well" rule applied to those who had essentially won a home game. Not that the question can be answered with one game, but it's interesting that the Flyers matched their best performance of the season in the Round of 64.
Every year a play-in team has done well. Each year at least one has won a game in the Round of 64. Three have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. One has advanced to the Final Four. That's out of a sample of 8. Add in this year's results and 5 of 10 have gone further than they should (they are all 'supposed' to lose in the first round). In the first four years, 75% of the time, a play-in team has reached the Sweet Sixteen.
Vegas Line:
Oklahoma by 4
Power rating: spread
Oklahoma by 4.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Oklahoma: 61.6%
Dayton: 38.4%
It looks like Vegas is recognizing the home court advantage Dayton has, since their line and the Strength power rating estimate—which is giving full hca—are essentially the same. 3-seeds have won 65% of the meetings with 11 seeds, and the game-comparison method's results aren't far off that.
Bottom line: The Play-in team effect is working its magic again. The Flyers played their best game of the season on Friday. We look for Dayton to keep winning until they have to play a true neutral court game.
Final prediction: Dayton 70, Oklahoma 58
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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