All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Seed: 3
Record: 30-5
Conference: ACC
vs.
Butler Bulldogs
Seed: 6
Record: 23-10
Conference: Big East
Date: Saturday, March 21
Time: 9:40 pm Eastern
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Region: Midwest
Channel: TBS
Notre Dame played first on Thursday but last on Saturday.
Notre Dame Butler
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #12 Strength: #19
Median play: #14 Median play: #17
Road/Neutral Rank: #6 Road/Neutral Rank: #30
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#15 Sagarin: #20
Pomeroy: #10 Pomeroy: #23
Offense: #2 Offense: #67
Defense: #112 Defense: #10
LRMC: #13 LRMC: #22
BPI: #9 BPI: #23
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #15 2nd half/season: #18
Last 6 games: #6 Last 6 games: #10
Injury correction: #13 Injury correction: #19
Consistency: #294 Consistency: #88
Deep Run Rank: #21 Deep Run Rank: #11
Best Shot: #11 Best Shot: #28
Schedule Strength: #79 Schedule Strength: #30
This is a very tight 3 vs. 6 game. Notre Dame has the slight edge in each power rating, but when Butler has the ball there's a big advantage for the Bulldogs. Notre Dame's defense is lacking; is the difference between their offense and Butler's defense big enough to overcome it? Also, note that in recent play, both teams are playing at top ten level.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): Michigan St.+OT, =Purdue+31, @North Carolina+1, @North Carolina St.+OT, Duke+4, @Louisville+12, @Duke+10, @North Carolina+8, =Northeastern+4
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =Providence-1, Virginia-6, @Duke-30
- Other losses (2): @Pittsburgh-4, Syracuse-5
Key Info: Notre Dame played a laughably easy non-conference schedule (ranked #347 of 351 by Pomeroy) but they beat the two tourney-bound Big Ten teams they faced and once in conference they proved they could run with the big boys. Their last five games included a road win over 4-seed Louisville and essentially road wins over 1-seed Duke and 4-seed North Carolina.
Senior guard Jerian Grant has been Notre Dame's spark this year, leading the team in scoring (16.8ppg) and assists (6.6), but three other players average in double figures for the Irish's excellent offense, including forward Zach Auguste who had 25 points to keep the Irish ahead of Northeastern.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =North Carolina+8, =Georgetown+6, Belmont+11, @St. John's+4, Xavier+12, St. John's+23, @Providence+4, =Texas+8
- Losses to tournament teams (9): =Oklahoma-13, =Indiana-9, @Villanova-12, Providence-4, @Georgetown-2, Villanova-3, @Xavier-17, Georgetown-6, =Xavier-OT
- Other losses (1): @Tennessee-12
Key Info: Butler went from a nightmare 2014 to a dream 2015, and compared to expectations they have soared. The first concrete clue was when they beat North Carolina in the Atlantis tournament; the Bulldogs would lose to Oklahoma there, but beat Georgetown, hinting that this year's Big East play would be much better than last year's 4-14. They ended up 12-6 in conference and a 6-seed after missing the post-season last year.
Junior guard Kellen Dunham again leads the Bulldogs with 16.7 ppg; he had 20 against Texas.
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Game Analysis: Notre Dame played a poor game against Northeastern, and it wasn't even their defense that was bad. It was their offense's Achilles' Heel—rebounding. The Irish had just 2 offensive rebounds. Now they're facing Butler, a team that is in the top ten in defensive rebounding. The Irish might not get a 2nd shot.
Despite their woes the other night, they still shot 57%. They'll need to keep that up to beat Butler, who played a great defensive game against Texas. Their offense was another matter; the Bulldogs shot just 33% and needed a 28-12 advantage in free throw attempts to win by 8 points.
We'll assume that both teams got those problems—mostly—out of their systems and will play a complete game against each other Saturday night.
Vegas Line:
Notre Dame by 4
Power rating: spread
Notre Dame by 1.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Notre Dame: 53.9%
Butler: 46.1%
Vegas has the Irish as a bigger favorite than the Strength power rating does, which is unusual; the line even started at 5 points before easing. Notre Dame's 54% chance to win is a bit tighter than a normal 3 vs. 6 matchup (57%).
Bottom line: Both teams won ugly last time out, but Notre Dame's win was uglier because their opponent was worse. Butler couldn't shoot and Notre Dame couldn't rebound. Taken to the extreme, the former problem is worse: you don't need rebounds when you can make shots. Advantage: Notre Dame.
Final prediction: Notre Dame 71, Butler 65
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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