All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 2
Record: 33-2
Conference: West Coast
vs.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Seed: 7
Record: 22-11
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Sunday, March 22
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Location: Seattle, WA
Region: South
Channel: TBS
Gonzaga, one of the nation's tallest teams, faced one of the shortest teams in their first round, but now they're up against on of the few teams that can match their length.
Gonzaga Iowa
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #7 Strength: #19
Median play: #5 Median play: #29
Road/Neutral Rank: #9 Road/Neutral Rank: #22
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#7 Sagarin: #22
Pomeroy: #8 Pomeroy: #18
Offense: #5 Offense: #30
Defense: #37 Defense: #27
LRMC: #4 LRMC: #31
BPI: #5 BPI: #35
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #11 2nd half/season: #9
Last 6 games: #12 Last 6 games: #7
Injury correction: #10 Injury correction: #21
Consistency: #113 Consistency: #340
Deep Run Rank: #3 Deep Run Rank: #35
Best Shot: #13 Best Shot: #15
Schedule Strength: #83 Schedule Strength: #42
Gonzaga was better than Iowa for most of the season, but lately the Hawkeyes have been great. For the 2nd half of the season they now rank as better than the Bulldogs, and after adding in their first round win, their recent play is in the top ten. Gonzaga's offense is the wild card here; it's their advantage over the Hawkeyes, and while Iowa played extremely well in the first round, they've shown in the past that it doesn't persist.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): SMU+16, =Georgia+12, @St. John's+7, @UCLA+13, Texas Southern+40, @BYU+7, =BYU+16, North Dakota St.+10
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @Arizona-OT, BYU-3
- Other losses (0): none
Key Info: Gonzaga's very best performances were early on, when in addition to beating Sacrament State 104-58 and St. Joe's 94-42, they topped 6-seed SMU 72-56 and 10-seed Georgia 88-76. Even their loss to Arizona—in overtime, on the road—was a highlight. They continued to reach those heights occasionally again throughout the year but after topping UCLA 87-74 they only played one more NCAA-bound team. They beat BYU 87-80 on the road to kick off the WCC season, but lost at home to the Cougars 73-70. They won the rubber match in the tournament, 91-75. BYU didn't even make the field of 64, as it turns out.
Gonzaga is one of the tallest teams in the country with a 6' 10", 7' 1", 6' 10" front line. They are led by transfer forward Kyle Wiltjer's 16.7 points; he adds 6 rebounds; he had 23 against the Bison.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): Hampton+34, North Dakota St.+31, @North Carolina+5, North Florida+10, @Ohio St.+6, Ohio St.+9, Maryland+16, @Indiana+14, =Davidson+31
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =Texas-14, Iowa St.-15, =Northern Iowa-12, Michigan St.-14, @Wisconsin-32, @Purdue-4, Wisconsin-11
- Other losses (4): =Syracuse-3, Minnesota-5, @Northwestern-OT, =Penn St.-9
Key Info: Iowa's up and down season started with 30+ point wins over teams that would reach the NCAA tournament, 16-seed Hampton and 15-seed North Dakota State. Then they lost to 11-seed Texas and no-seed Syracuse in the 2K Sports Classic. The Hawks rebounded with 6 wins including 4-seed North Carolina in Chapel Hill, but lost to both in-state rivals, 3-seed Iowa State (90-75 at home) and 5-seed Northern Iowa (56-44 neutral court). They continued the pattern of: great wins, bad losses by beating Ohio State (losing to Michigan State at home), beat Ohio State again (lose to Wisconsin 82-50), beat Maryland (lose to Northwestern). Finally they put together another string of wins late in the year to finish 12-6 in the Big Ten, but they lost to lowly Penn State in the conference tournament.
The Hawks' star is senior forward Aaron White, who leads in point (16) and rebound (7.5) per game; against Davidson he put on a clinic, scoring on short shots, dunks, and the occasional 3-pointer for 26 points.
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Game Analysis: Neither team has defeated an opponent as good as the other team. The only team Gonzaga has played that is better than Iowa is 2-seed Arizona, and they lost in overtime. Iowa lost to 2-seed Wisconsin twice and 3-seed Iowa State once. They did beat North Carolina and Ohio State who are pretty close to Gonzaga's level, though they weren't 2-seeds.
Iowa's consistency rating is very low, and there was no better example of that than their last two games. They fell to Big Ten cellar dweller Penn State in the Big Ten tournament, then turned around and played by far their best game of the year against Davidson. Not only was it their best game of the season, but it was the best performance of any team in the first round.
Gonzaga is the 3rd tallest team in the nation, and Iowa is the 7th tallest. The frontcourt matchups will pit 7-1 Przemek Karnowski, 6-10 Domantas Sabonis, and 6-10 Kyle Wiltjer for the 'Zags against Iowa's 7-1 Adam Woodbury, 6-10 Gabe Olaseni, 6-9 Aaron White, and 6-9 Jarrod Uthoff.
Vegas Line:
Gonzaga by 6
Power rating: spread
Gonzaga by 5.3 / 8.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Gonzaga: 62.5% / 70.0%
Iowa: 37.5% / 30.0%
Depending on whether we give Gonzaga home court advantage—as they are playing in-state, while Iowa is 1,500 miles from home—the Strength power rating fluctuates from 5.3 to 8.5 points. The Vegas line is right in the middle of that, so maybe it's appropriately considered a partial home court.
Bottom line: This is a tough one. Iowa just played their best game, but who knows what their next performance looks like. Since we originally picked Gonzaga to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, we'll stick with that, but another good Iowa performance could oust them.
Final prediction: Gonzaga 70, Iowa 69
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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