All previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule
Wisconsin Badgers
Seed: 1
Record: 32-3
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Oregon Ducks
Seed: 8
Record: 26-9
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Sunday, March 22
Time: 7:45 pm Eastern
Location: Omaha, NE
Region: West
Channel: truTV
A lot of buildup has been made about Wisconsin being on a collision course to a rematch with Kentucky, but there are a couple of other rematches along the way—the first being with Oregon, who wants to avenge last year's Round of 32 loss to the Badgers.
Wisconsin Oregon
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #54
Median play: #6 Median play: #43
Road/Neutral Rank: #2 Road/Neutral Rank: #61
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#2 Sagarin: #56
Pomeroy: #3 Pomeroy: #46
Offense: #1 Offense: #11
Defense: #30 Defense: #88
LRMC: #5 LRMC: #48
BPI: #2 BPI: #48
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #4 2nd half/season: #45
Last 6 games: #4 Last 6 games: #34
Injury correction: #6 / #3 Injury correction: #30
Consistency: #227 Consistency: #192
Deep Run Rank: #2 Deep Run Rank: #32
Best Shot: #4 Best Shot: #30
Schedule Strength: #18 Schedule Strength: #5
The Badgers are good enough that they won't need Traevon Jackson, who is out for the first weekend, to compete with Oregon. They've been without their guard for many weeks and essentially has compensated for his loss. Still, they'd be better with him back, as they might not be a top 5 team without him. Oregon's numbers are decent but far below Wisconsin's, so on paper anyway it's a pretty clear Badger win. Their defense was around #133 before their win over Oklahoma State; now it's a much-better but still suspect #88.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (14): Boise St.+24, =UAB+29, =Georgetown+3, =Oklahoma+13, Buffalo+12, Purdue+7, Iowa+32, @Iowa+11, Indiana+14, Michigan St.+7, @Ohio St.+24, =Purdue+20, =Michigan St.+OT, =Coastal Carolina+14
- Losses to tournament teams (2): Duke-10, @Maryland-6
- Other losses (1): @Rutgers-5
Key Info: It's hard to pinpoint Wisconsin's most dominant win of the year. Was it early on, when they beat Chattanooga by 44 points, almost doubling the Mocs' score (game 2)? Or beating Milwaukee by 39 on the road (game 10)? Those had big margins but not the best of competition—what about beating 7-seed Iowa, 82-50, in game 19? Or maybe it was beating 10-seed Ohio State on the road, 72-48 (game 31)? On the other hand, it's easy to find their worst loss, since there are only 3 to choose from. It wasn't the loss to 1-seed Duke, even if it was by double digits and at home. Nor was it the late loss at 4-seed Maryland. Clearly it was the 67-62 loss at Rutgers, ranked #219 by Pomeroy. The Badgers were without star 7-footer Frank Kaminsky (18.2 ppg, 8.0 rebounds) that game and lost #4 scorer Traevon Jackson during it. Jackson may be back for the tournament, which would give them another push toward the Final Four.
Kaminsky had a Wooden-award level performance with 27 points and 12 rebounds against Coastal Carolina.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): UC Irvine+OT, UCLA+18, Utah+11, =Utah+3, =Oklahoma St.+6
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =VCU-14, Mississippi-6, Arizona-18, @Arizona-34, @UCLA-9, =Arizona-28
- Other losses (3): =Michigan-7, @Washington St.-OT, @Washington-8
Key Info: Midway through the season Oregon was a non-descript team that probably wouldn't make the tournament at 12-6 after losing 3 of 5 in the Pac-12, including an 80-62 home loss to Arizona. Two games later they walloped UCLA 82-64, and after failing badly again vs. Arizona they turned it up, going 9-1 to finish the regular season. They added two Pac-12 tournament wins—including Utah—before getting walloped again by Arizona, 80-52. The Ducks had gone from an average team that occasionally played well, to a good team that occasionally gaffes (usually against Arizona).
Joseph Young (20.2ppg) is one of the nation's leading scorers on a great offense; he had 27 to lead all scorers vs. Oklahoma State.
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Game Analysis: Last year Wisconsin beat Oregon 85-77 in the Round of 32. Now they meet again. Last year the Badgers were a 2-seed and Oregon was a 7 seed. Wisconsin upgraded one seed line, while the Ducks dropped to an 8.
Does it matter at all that these teams played under the same circumstances last year? Does Oregon gain any mental edge from the rematch, and/or the fact that all anyone is talking about is Wisconsin vs. Kentucky? Maybe. But it probably matters more whether or not Wisconsin is looking ahead, and it's hard to believe that they think this game is a cakewalk just because they beat the Ducks last year.
Kaminsky and Young are two of the game's top scorers, but while Wisconsin has tall guards that could give Young trouble, Oregon doesn't have a lot of height to deal with Kaminsky.
Vegas Line:
Wisconsin by 12
Power rating: spread
Wisconsin by 13.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Wisconsin: 83.6%
Oregon: 16.4%
Vegas and the Strength power rating basically agree on this one. Oregon's chance to win is roughly equivalent to the historical rate (19%) for 8-seeds vs. 1-seeds.
Bottom line: Oregon doesn't seem to match up well with the Badgers.
Final prediction: Wisconsin 75, Oregon 61
More previews: click here for the full 2015 NCAA tournament schedule.
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