SportsRatings: College Basketball

Dance Chance 2/27: Top seeds and bubble stable

It was an uneventful 2 days in college basketball, all in all. After Wednesday and Thursday's action, the top 3 seeds remained the same, and nobody fell out or joined the at-large bids, though there were some near-misses in both regions.

The 1-seeds stayed the same; lowest 1-seed Duke had a scare, needing double overtime to beat lowly Virginia Tech, a loss that would have put their #1 seed in big doubt. But a win's a win, and anyway Wisconsin had already made a bit more space between themselves and the Blue Devils with the prior loss to Maryland. The Badgers hold on to the top 2-seed, though Arizona is basically tied with them for that distinction. After their dominant win over Colorado the Wildcats get their 100% designation and have almost the same exact résumé across the board.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
1	1	Kentucky	SEC	28-0	15-0	1	1	20.5	100%
2	1	Virginia	ACC	26-1	14-1	3	4	20.5	100%
3	1	Villanova	Big East	26-2	13-2	4	8	20.0	100%
4	1	Duke	ACC	25-3	12-3	5	7	19.5	100%
5	2	Wisconsin	Big Ten	25-3	13-2	6	2	10.0	100%
6	2	Arizona	Pac-12	25-3	13-2	7	3	10.5	100%
7	2	Kansas	Big 12	22-6	11-4	2	12	19.0	99.9
8	2	Gonzaga	West Coast	28-1	17-0	8	5	9.5	99.9
9	3	Utah	Pac-12	21-5	12-3	10	6	5.5	99.9
10	3	Maryland	Big Ten	23-5	11-4	9	30	9.0	99.9
11	3	Iowa St.	Big 12	20-7	10-5	12	13	14.5	99.9
12	3	Arkansas	SEC	23-5	12-3	20	26	8.0	98.4

Utah humiliated Arizona State (it was 41-9 at the half) to move the Utes back up to the top 3-seed, replacing Iowa State who lost at home to Baylor. The Bears move up to a 4-seed, right behind Oklahoma who ranks as the strongest team in the conference, though it's tight—Big Twelve teams rank 11th, 12th, 13th, and 14th in Strength, so it should be a great conference tournament. Another Big Twelve team, West Virginia, gets pushed down to the highest 5-seed.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
13	4	Notre Dame	ACC	24-5	12-4	28	16	8.5	97.6
14	4	Oklahoma	Big 12	19-8	10-5	17	11	13.5	95.1
15	4	Baylor	Big 12	20-7	9-6	11	14	11.0	94.6	+1
16	4	Louisville	ACC	22-6	10-5	19	15	8.0	93.9
17	5	West Virginia	Big 12	22-6	10-5	21	21	9.5	93.2	-1
18	5	Northern Iowa	MVC	27-2	16-1	15	37	3.5	92.4
19	5	Wichita St.	MVC	25-3	16-1	14	20	2.5	92.0
20	5	SMU	American	22-5	14-2	16	31	5.5	88.0	+1
21	6	North Carolina	ACC	19-9	9-6	18	10	8.5	86.2	-1
22	6	Butler	Big East	20-8	10-5	25	19	8.0	85.5
23	6	Georgetown	Big East	18-8	10-5	24	24	6.5	80.9
24	6	VCU	Atlantic 10	21-7	11-4	13	28	3.5	78.2

SMU's road win over Memphis was enough to move their RPI from 20 to 16, and as a result the Mustangs edge North Carolina for the last 5-seed. The Tar Heels, once a solid-looking 3-seed or better, have lost three of their last four and 5 of their last 7.

In the Big Ten, Ohio State and Indiana basically switched positions. The Buckeyes beat Nebraska while Indiana lost to Northwestern (the Wildcats' fourth victim in a row after 10 straight losses). Michigan State lost at home to Minnesota in overtime and also slipped behind the Buckeyes, but managed to hold onto their 7-seed.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
25	7	Providence	Big East	19-9	9-6	22	39	7.5	77.0
26	7	San Diego St.	Mtn West	21-6	12-3	23	40	1.5	72.8
27	7	Ohio St.	Big Ten	20-8	9-6	42	9	0.0	69.7	+1
28	7	Michigan St.	Big Ten	19-9	10-5	33	17	-2.5	69.4
29	8	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	16-10	7-8	27	29	9.5	69.2
30	8	Texas A&M	SEC	19-8	10-5	31	48	0.0	67.2
31	8	Oregon	Pac-12	20-8	11-5	39	53	1.5	66.4	+2
32	8	Indiana	Big Ten	19-10	9-7	37	33	4.5	66.2	-1
33	9	Colorado St.	Mtn West	23-5	11-5	26	62	0.0	65.1
34	9	Georgia	SEC	18-9	9-6	29	44	-0.5	63.6	+2
35	9	Xavier	Big East	18-11	8-8	30	22	1.0	63.4
36	9	St. John's	Big East	18-9	8-7	38	49	6.0	62.5

The two biggest gainers in the brackets were Oregon and Georgia. Oregon's move seems a bit odd, as their win over Utah was already accounted for. Since then, the Ducks beat California and that was somehow enough to bump their RPI all the way from a middling 48 to a decent 39. Their Pac-12 record is a stellar 11-5 and that gives the Ducks some room for error going forward. Georgia's jump from 11-seed to 9-seed has a more straightforward explanation: they beat Mississippi 76-72 on the road.

The Bubble: Many fall but none fall out

The Rebels are one of many teams to fall into the bubble in the last few days. An 8-seed before their loss to Georgia, Ole Miss is now a 10-seed. North Carolina State and LSU were victims of RPI fluctuations—both dropped by 3 places there.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
37	10	North Carolina St.	ACC	17-11	8-7	40	27	5.0	61.8	-1
38	10	Iowa	Big Ten	18-10	9-6	54	23	4.0	60.4
39	10	Mississippi	SEC	19-9	10-5	45	43	-1.5	59.3	-2
40	10	Dayton	Atlantic 10	21-6	11-4	35	54	-1.5	58.9
41	11	Tulsa	American	20-6	13-2	34	76	-2.5	57.1	+1
42	11	LSU	SEC	20-8	9-6	55	47	1.5	57.0	-1
43	11	Purdue	Big Ten	19-9	11-4	59	38	-3.0	55.2
44	11	Davidson	Atlantic 10	19-6	11-4	48	34	-1.5	55.1	+1
45	11	Stanford	Pac-12	18-9	9-6	51	36	-1.0	55.1
46	12	Texas	Big 12	17-11	6-9	46	18	1.5	52.8	-1
47	12	Pittsburgh	ACC	18-10	8-7	36	67	-1.0	51.2	-1

On the other hand, Tulsa and Davidson strengthened their hands with wins; the Golden Hurricane beat Tulane and the Wildcats dumped Rhode Island. Because of this, Texas and Pittsburgh were both pushed down a seed and now are our last two teams in.

The Bubble, part 2: Outside looking in

Boise State is next in line once again, a spot they've held a lot lately. They play San Diego State Saturday and winning would be a huge help. Two American teams—Temple and Cincinnati—are on the cusp of being included or left out; right now most bracketologists have both of them "in" but the American clearly isn't a major conference—look at their bottom five teams—and it could end up a 2-bid league this year. Even 1-bid, if all three bubble teams (including Tulsa) falter.  Interestingly, Syracuse has played its way firmly onto the First Four Out, with a résumé that is slightly better in each criteria than Miami's. UCLA is also right on the edge of getting in with two should-be wins coming up, and unlike the self-sanctioned Orange, they are eligible.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
48		Boise St.	Mtn West	19-7	11-4	41	52	-4.5	50.0
49		Temple	American	20-9	11-5	32	84	-1.0	47.9
50		Syracuse*	ACC	18-10	9-6	64	42	-1.5	46.2
51		UCLA	Pac-12	17-12	9-7	50	50	-1.5	45.8
52		Cincinnati	American	19-9	10-5	52	61	1.0	43.7
53		Illinois	Big Ten	17-11	7-8	60	35	0.0	43.7
54		BYU	West Coast	20-8	12-5	56	25	-6.0	41.7
55		Miami FL	ACC	18-10	8-7	67	45	-3.5	39.8
56		Saint Mary's	West Coast	20-7	13-4	53	55	-6.5	39.6
57	12	Iona	Metro Atl	23-6	16-2	49	90	-6.5	35.4
58		Rhode Island	Atlantic 10	18-7	11-4	71	60	-3.0	35.2

Illinois took a hit with the loss at Iowa but it didn't hurt them too much—their RPI fell from 59 to 60; more importantly they are underwater at 7-8 in conference play. They should go 2-1 and be right on the 9-9 waterline before the conference tournament, but they're playing Northwestern at the wrong time so that's not a given. The West Coast teams—BYU and St. Mary's—hang around as always, but only the Cougars have an opportunity left before the WCC tournament. They face Gonzaga on Saturday.

Iona remains just outside the Second Four Out, realistically needing to get an auto-bid (which they should) to make the tournament. Rhode Island was one of our "bubble teams with great opportunities" but they failed against Davidson, losing 60-59 at home. They have one more shot, pre-Atl 10 tourney—beat Dayton on March 3rd.

Halftime score: Utah 41, Arizona State 9

There have been a lot of crazy blowouts this year, but what's weird is the Sun Devils aren't really that bad of a team. They're #50 in Strength, #53 in Pomeroy (who had them a 12 point underdog).

ASU was also coming off three straight wins and still had an outside chance at the NCAA tournament—they were 7-7 in conference, which isn't bad, and were 15-12 overall, which doesn't rule them out. A strong finish and a good Pac-12 tournament run and they could have been a bubble team. So it's not like they gave up.

Maybe Utah was mad about the Oregon loss and took it out on ASU. Maybe ASU couldn't handle the 4,000+ feet of altitude. Either way, this shouldn't be an intra-conference halftime score. It's more like a halftime score of a ranked team playing Chaminade.

Best and Worst Conference Races: Atlantic 10, Big South are tight

There are less than two weeks left before the conference races are settled—for the regular season. Winning your conference is worth more than bragging rights—it means you're going to play in the post-season, which is important for 1-bid leagues in particular. It's also a good horse race to watch.

We've figured out the best and worst conference races, using a simple formula to determine how "tight" things are at the top, and here are the results.

Best conference races: Atlantic 10 tops the list

1. Atlantic 10
   
   Dayton         11-4
   Davidson       11-4
   VCU            11-4
   Rhode Island   11-4
   Richmond        9-6
   UMass           9-6
   
   It doesn't get much tighter than this. With three games left to play, Dayton, Davidson, VCU, and Rhode Island are logjammed at 11-4. VCU has Dayton and Davidson left on the schedule, and Dayton plays Rhode Island, so all of that might even leave Richmond or UMass (both 9-6) an opening to at least share the title. This is the most exciting, up-for-grabs conference race in the country.
   
   
2. Big South
   
   High Point        12-4
   Charleston South. 12-4
   Coastal Carolina  12-5
   Radford           11-5
   Winthrop          11-5
   
   With just two games (in some cases, one) left, the Big South is still anyone's among leaders High Point and Charleston Southern, half-game-back Coastal Carolina, and one-game-back Radford and Winthrop. The leaders play on the 28th, and since none of the rest face each other, that game might be the difference between first place and 5th place.
   
   
3. Colonial Athletic
   
   William & Mary  12-5
   UNC Wilmington  12-5
   Northeastern    11-5
   James Madison   11-6
   Hofstra         10-7
   
   The Colonial Athletic also features a tie among the top two teams, William & Mary and UNC-Wilmington, and tightness down to 5th place Hofstra. With just one conference game left, however, only the top four can claim a share of the title, meaning Northeastern and James Madison are still in the mix but not the Pride. William & Mary plays Drexel, Wilmington faces Elon, and James Madison plays Hofstra. Northeastern has two games left and splitting those could create a 4-way tie at the top.
   
   
4. Sun Belt
   
   Georgia Southern   12-4
   Georgia State      12-4
   LA Monroe          12-4
   LA Lafayette       10-7
   Texas Arlington     9-7
   
   With a three-way tie at the top between 12-4 Georgia Southern, Georgia State, and Louisiana-Monroe, and everyone else 3 or more games back, it might look like Louisiana-Lafayette and Texas Arlington are out of luck. But the Sun Belt plays a 20-game schedule, meaning the Ragin' Cajuns and the Mavericks still have a prayer. Both get a shot at Georgia Southern, who also plays Georgia State, who also plays Louisiana-Monroe. This one's far from over.
   
   
5. Big Sky
   
   Sacramento St.    12-3
   Montana           12-3
   E. Washington     11-3
   Northern Arizona  10-4
   Portland St.       8-7
   
   Big Sky leaders Sacramento State and Montana have three games left each, meaning only the top four teams have a shot at the regular season title. Eastern Washington is a half-game back, and Northern Arizona is 1.5 games back, both with 4 games left. It could all come down to March 7, when Eastern Washington will face Montana and Sacramento State plays Northern Arizona.

Worst conference races:

1.  West Coast Conference
   
   Gonzaga      16-0
   St. Mary's   12-4
   BYU          11-5
   
   Unfortunately for college basketball fans, no one in the West Coast Conference could provide a challenge for Gonzaga, which is why the Bulldogs already have things wrapped up. Perennial contender St. Mary's gave them a bit of trouble last Saturday, and they still have to face BYU again (at home). This is a race for 2nd place.
   
   
2. Ohio Valley
   
   Murray St.  14-0
   Belmont     10-5
   
   Belmont leads the East division by just half a game, but overall conference leader Murray State is 4 1/2 games ahead of the Bruins.
   
   
3. Northeast
   
   St. Francis (NY)     14-2
   Mount St. Mary's     10-6
   Robert Morris     10-6
   Bryant     10-6
   
   The Northeast features a great race—for 2nd place—among Mount St. Mary's, Robert Morris, and Bryant. However St. Francis NY is 4 games ahead of all of them, and the Terriers will win the conference by at least 2 games.
   
   
4. SEC
   
   Kentucky     15-0
   Arkansas     12-3
   Texas A&M    10-5
   Mississippi  10-5
   LSU           9-6
   Georgia       9-6
   
   Technically this one's not over. Kentucky is three games ahead of Arkansas, but there are three games left. It could be over as soon as Saturday, however, when the Wildcats host the Razorbacks. Hoping to sneak into 2nd place are Texas A&M and Mississippi, with LSU and Georgia still mathematically able to do the same.
   
   
5. MEAC
   
   Iona       16-2
   Rider      13-5
   Manhattan  12-6
   Monmouth   12-6
   
   The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference already has a winner, Iona. The Gaels have a chance at an at-large bid if they don't win the MEAC tournament. Not so for Rider, Manhattan, and Monmouth who are fighting for 2nd place.

 

Dance Chance: Oregon up, Illinois down, Tulsa replaces Temple

Today's Dance Chance (covering games through Sunday, February 22) shows little change from yesterday in the top seeds but a few games caused some rumbling around the bubble area.

We still have the same teams in the top three seeds, with Villanova our pick that's out of synch with most Bracketologists who favor Gonzaga; the Bulldogs still languish as the low 2-seed in the Dance Chance. There's quite a gap between the 'Zags and Iowa State, the top 3-seed, while all the teams from Villanova on down are fairly close. There are many possible teams that could end up 1-seeds, but it will be hard for any teams to break disrupt the top 8 teams.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
1	1	Kentucky	SEC	27-0	14-0	2	1	20.5	100%
2	1	Virginia	ACC	25-1	13-1	3	6	18.0	100%
3	1	Villanova	Big East	25-2	12-2	5	9	18.0	100%
4	1	Duke	ACC	24-3	11-3	4	3	19.0	100%
5	2	Wisconsin	Big Ten	25-2	13-1	6	2	10.5	100%
6	2	Kansas	Big 12	22-5	11-3	1	12	19.5	99.9
7	2	Arizona	Pac-12	24-3	12-2	7	5	10.5	99.9
8	2	Gonzaga	West Coast	27-1	16-0	8	4	9.5	99.9
9	3	Iowa St.	Big 12	20-6	10-4	9	13	14.0	99.9
10	3	Notre Dame	ACC	24-4	12-3	27	15	9.0	99.9
11	3	Utah	Pac-12	20-5	11-3	10	7	5.5	99.9

One team that hoped to do so was Utah, but the Utes fall a couple of spots (while remaining a 3-seed) after losing at Oregon Sunday. And there's quite a gap between the Utes and Arkansas, our final 3-seed. The Razorbacks have been winning consistently (6 in a row) and are 11-3 in the SEC, which should garner them more respect than the 6-seeding that the consensus has them. Their résumé isn't much different than Maryland's or Louisville's, and both of those teams are consensus 4-seeds.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
12	3	Arkansas	SEC	22-5	11-3	20	26	7.0	95.7
13	4	Maryland	Big Ten	22-5	10-4	11	37	7.0	94.9
14	4	Oklahoma	Big 12	19-8	10-5	16	11	11.5	94.4
15	4	Louisville	ACC	21-6	9-5	19	14	7.5	92.0
16	4	Wichita St.	MVC	24-3	15-1	15	19	2.5	90.1	+1
17	5	North Carolina	ACC	19-8	9-5	13	8	6.0	89.6
18	5	Northern Iowa	MVC	26-2	15-1	17	39	3.5	89.5	-1
19	5	West Virginia	Big 12	21-6	9-5	24	21	6.5	87.2
20	5	Baylor	Big 12	19-7	8-6	14	16	7.0	87.2
21	6	SMU	American	21-5	13-2	18	33	6.0	85.5
22	6	VCU	Atlantic 10	21-6	11-3	12	27	6.0	84.6
23	6	Butler	Big East	19-8	9-5	23	20	8.0	84.5
24	6	Georgetown	Big East	18-8	10-5	21	23	6.5	83.2

Also on the 4-line is Wichita State, who jumps over Northern Iowa again. The Panthers were a four seed after Saturday's action but the two teams have such similar profiles that one moves ahead of the other after winning a game. They'll probably play each other two more times.

Indiana won at Rutgers which boosted the Hoosiers to a 7-seed (they were the high 8-seed before); meanwhile Ohio State's loss to Michigan dumped the Buckeyes to a 9-seed. Ohio State's great Strength score (#10 now) has long suggested that they should be able to get a 3-seed or so, but they haven't won games at the same clip. According to Pomeroy, they are #335 in "Luck", essentially the difference between a team's quality by score and by wins.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
25	7	Providence	Big East	19-8	9-5	22	31	8.0	82.5
26	7	Michigan St.	Big Ten	19-8	10-4	28	17	-1.5	75.9
27	7	Indiana	Big Ten	19-9	9-6	33	29	6.0	73.6	+1
28	7	San Diego St.	Mtn West	21-6	12-3	25	40	1.5	72.7
29	8	Mississippi	SEC	19-8	10-4	32	42	0.0	70.1
30	8	Texas A&M	SEC	19-7	10-4	34	47	-0.5	68.8
31	8	Xavier	Big East	18-10	8-7	30	22	3.0	68.6
32	8	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	16-10	7-8	29	28	8.5	68.4	+1
33	9	Ohio St.	Big Ten	19-8	8-6	43	10	0.0	67.4	-2
34	9	Colorado St.	Mtn West	22-5	10-5	26	58	0.0	64.3
35	9	Oregon	Pac-12	19-8	10-5	44	56	1.5	61.9	+3
36	9	Texas	Big 12	17-10	6-8	40	18	1.5	58.7

The big winner on Sunday was Oregon. As we noted in our profile of the bubble teams and the one game that could make them a tournament team, beating Utah was a huge boon to the Ducks. They jump from the Play-in line to a 9-seed, with a fantastic 10-5 conference record and an RPI that went from 56 to 44.

Iowa's big game was supposed to be Indiana later on, but dominating Nebraska 74-46 moved the Hawkeyes off the Play-in line to the top 10-seed. Their RPI improved from 61 to 55, a much safer (though not foolproof) number. Meanwhile Illinois took a dive with the home loss to Michigan State; the Illini fell three seeds, though they did start as the low 9-seed. Still, that's quite a fall, and it results mostly from a dip in RPI from 46 to 58. Iowa hosts Illinois on Wednesday, a game that could push Illinois out of the seedings or pack the two even closer together on the bubble.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
37	10	Iowa	Big Ten	17-10	8-6	55	24	3.5	57.6	+1
38	10	Dayton	Atlantic 10	20-6	10-4	35	55	-2.0	56.5
39	10	St. John's	Big East	17-9	7-7	46	48	5.0	56.5
40	10	Georgia	SEC	17-9	8-6	37	44	-3.0	55.9
41	11	LSU	SEC	19-8	8-6	54	51	2.0	55.4	-1
42	11	Stanford	Pac-12	17-9	8-6	51	41	-0.5	52.8
43	11	North Carolina St.	ACC	16-11	7-7	52	30	2.5	51.7
44	11	Tulsa	American	19-6	12-2	39	85	-2.5	51.2	+
45	11	Purdue	Big Ten	18-9	10-4	61	38	-4.5	51.1
46	12	Davidson	Atlantic 10	18-6	10-4	57	36	-0.5	50.1
47	12	Illinois	Big Ten	17-10	7-7	58	35	1.0	48.9	-3
48		Pittsburgh	ACC	17-10	7-7	36	68	-2.0	48.3
49		Boise St.	Mtn West	18-7	10-4	41	52	-5.5	47.4
50		Temple	American	19-9	10-5	31	86	0.0	47.3	-

The American Athletic conference's most significant game was Temple vs. Tulsa, and the result—a 55-39 home win for Tulsa—was enough to knock the Owls out of the brackets and put the Golden Hurricane on the Play-in line. Tulsa is an interesting case, as their résumé contains a home loss to a non-Division I team, something the RPI doesn't pick up but the Committee probably will; it's what keeps them on the Play-in line despite a 12-2 conference record.

The lower bubble is much the same as it was yesterday as few of these teams played, but it's interesting to look a bit further and see the 1-bid conference teams that are getting close to the point where they'd be viable at-large bids. The caviet in all these cases is, if they were to lose in their conference tournament, that loss would be enough to knock them below the waterline anyway—so the only way they might deserve an at-large bid is to win out and garner an automatic bid. Iona is the top ranked team of this ilk in the Dance Chance at 16-2 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Gaels are in the Second Four Out but are a heavy favorite to win the MAAC.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
51		UCLA	Pac-12	16-12	8-7	47	53	-1.0	45.3
52		Rhode Island	Atlantic 10	18-6	11-3	63	59	-1.5	43.9
53		Cincinnati	American	18-9	9-5	49	61	-0.5	41.9
54		BYU	West Coast	19-8	11-5	59	25	-5.5	39.2
55	12	Iona	Metro Atl	23-6	16-2	45	91	-6.0	38.2
56		Miami FL	ACC	17-10	7-7	67	43	-4.0	38.1
57		Syracuse*	ACC	17-10	8-6	75	45	-2.5	38.0
58		Saint Mary's	West Coast	19-7	12-4	53	64	-6.0	36.4
59	12	Valparaiso	Horizon	22-4	12-2	65	67	-5.5	31.5
60	12	Old Dominion	C-USA	20-6	9-5	48	69	-4.0	30.4
61	13	Stephen F. Austin	Southland	19-4	12-1	69	60	-1.5	25.6
62	13	Murray St.	Ohio Valley	22-4	14-0	70	77	-4.0	25.5

The teams with the top Strength values in the Horizona, C-USA, Southland, and Ohio Valley are all bunched up at the 12/13 line. Valpariso will face a strong challenge from Green Bay, and Old Dominion will have to fight off UTEP and Louisiana Tech. Stephen F. Austin and Murray State will be heavy favorites in their conference tournaments, however.

Big wins that could boost the Bubble teams

It's nearly conference tournament time, when the real make-or-break happens for NCAA bubble teams. But there's still opportunity left in the regular season for some borderline teams to punch their ticket. Here we review the 16 teams closest to the waterline of getting a bid or missing one, and see if there's one big score on their schedule that could put them over the top. We use today's Dance Chance update to select the bubble teams.

Above the Play-in line: These teams are in for now, but have to finish strong or they'll fall to the Play-in line, or worse.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
40	10	LSU	SEC	19-8	8-6	54	51	2.0	55.6	+1
41	11	Temple	American	19-8	10-4	28	77	1.5	54.8
42	11	Stanford	Pac-12	17-9	8-6	49	41	-1.5	52.9	+1
43	11	Purdue	Big Ten	18-9	10-4	59	38	-4.0	52.7	-1

• LSU: The Tigers are our lowest 10-seed and have a decent résumé. But their RPI isn't great, and to solidify their bid, a road win over Arkansas on March 7th would be just the right prescription. The Razorbacks are a borderline 3-seed in today's Dance Chance with a 20 RPI. The Tigers also face projected 8-seed Mississippi.
• Temple: The recent loss to SMU put Temple at 10-4 in the American. They're fairly safe right now given their 28 RPI, but since there aren't any big games left on their schedule they just need to keep winning. Beating bubble team Tulsa this evening is a must to escape the bubble themselves.
• Stanford: This one's easy—the Cardinal can punch their ticket by beating Arizona on the road on March 7. Easier said than done, but there's no better way to make a big jump out of bubble territory. They also take on bubble team Oregon, but they're expected to win that at home.
• Purdue: At 10-4 in the Big Ten, you'd think the Boilermakers are a shoo-in. But with a 59 RPI and -4.0 Wins Composite (thanks to some bad losses), Purdue is still on the brink. What they lack is a good road win, and on March 1st they travel to Ohio State where they can truly solidify their bid. They do host Illinois on March 7th, but a good road win would help a lot more.

The Play-in teams: They're still "on the bubble" but currently "in". How can they escape the bubble purgatory and join the "real" tournament?

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
44	11	Iowa	Big Ten	16-10	7-6	61	25	3.5	52.4	-1
45	11	North Carolina St.	ACC	16-11	7-7	51	29	2.0	52.1
46	12	Oregon	Pac-12	18-8	9-5	56	60	-0.5	51.4	-1
47	12	Davidson	Atlantic 10	18-6	10-4	57	35	-0.5	50.6

• Iowa: The Hawkeyes are another Big Ten bubble team with a poor RPI. Unlike Purdue, however, they have some solid road wins (UNC, Ohio State) but their record isn't fantastic. With a fairly easy schedule left, the Hawks just have to win the games they should, but beating Indiana on the road on March 3rd would be a big help, and possible bail them out in case they slip up somewhere else (like at home vs. Illinois—or today at Nebraska).
• North Carolina State: A big win over Louisville got them onto the bubble but at 16-11 (7-7) there's not much room for error. The Wolfpack face rival North Carolina in Chapel Hill on the 24th, and winning there would either punch their ticket for good or give them lots of leeway.
• Oregon: Even at 18-8 and 9-5 in the Pac-12 the Ducks aren't getting much respect. Their RPI is a bit low and they lack big wins; they can take care of both problems by beating Utah this afternoon. They're at home, which helps. If they fail vs. the Utes it won't hurt them that much, but their remaining schedule isn't easy, including a trip to Stanford on March 1st.
• Davidson: Some of the near-Major conference teams don't have opportunity left, but the Wildcats do: they host VCU on the 5th of March, and a win would get the Committee's attention. Most Bracketologists aren't seeding Davidson right now but they would if they can beat the Rams.

First Four Out: All of these teams have a great chance to get into the tournament, but they've got to make it happen. A big win could do it for most of these teams.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
48		Boise St.	Mtn West	18-7	10-4	40	52	-4.5	49.0
49		Pittsburgh	ACC	17-10	7-7	37	68	-1.5	48.6
50		UCLA	Pac-12	16-12	8-7	43	53	0.0	48.3
51		Tulsa	American	18-6	11-2	50	91	0.0	45.3

• Boise State: The Broncos have a good record and a great RPI for a bubble team, but they've had some bad losses and not even beating San Diego State and Colorado State could cure their rotten Wins Composite. But those wins were at home, and on February 28th they have a chance at the biggest road prize the MWC offers, San Diego State. The Broncos are so close that they could make it anyway if they finish out 3-1, but a win in San Diego would remove the doubt.
• Pittsburgh: The Panthers weren't heavily in discussion until they upset North Carolina, and now with a 37 RPI they just need to take care of business down the stretch. Part of that will require beating Miami at home, but that alone won't do it. If they can't sweep their remaining schedule Pitt might need a good ACC tournament run.
• UCLA: The Bruins have been a bubble stalwart for weeks, but in terms of big wins they missed their chance last night, falling to Arizona 57-47 on the road. It didn't hurt them much (their RPI went from 45 to 43) and with three easy games left, UCLA should be able to climb into the seedings prior to the Pac-12 tournament. Their spot won't be secure, however.
• Tulsa: The 2nd American Athletic team on the bubble, the Golden Hurricane need to beat Temple today, but even if they fail they have SMU on March 8th. That would give them the big win they lack, prove that their 11-2 conference record is for real, and help erase the memory of the home loss to Southeastern Oklahoma State, a defeat that doesn't show on their Div-I record but does contribute to their #91 Strength rating. They also face bubble team Cincinnati, so it's not an easy road ahead in their last 5 games.

Second Four Out: Down but not out, these teams need a big boost to avoid depending on conference tournament success to make the brackets.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
52		Rhode Island	Atlantic 10	18-6	11-3	63	58	-1.5	44.3
53		Cincinnati	American	18-9	9-5	45	61	-0.5	43.9
54		BYU	West Coast	19-8	11-5	58	24	-5.0	40.6
55		Miami FL	ACC	17-10	7-7	67	42	-3.5	39.0

• Rhode Island: The Atlantic 10's 2nd rep here, the Rams face Last-Team-In Davidson this Wednesday, and on March 3rd the real boost could come from a road win over Dayton. The Flyers fell to a 10-seed most recently but have a 35 RPI; beating them would shore up Rhode Island's own woeful 63 RPI.
• Cincinnati: Most Bracketologists still seed the Bearcats but the Dance Chance doesn't see it that way. Cincy ranks below both Temple and Tulsa among American Athletic teams here, but they face the Golden Hurricane on March 4 and the rest of their remaining schedule is manageable. With a 45 RPI the Bearcats aren't in terrible shape, but unless they win out the conference tournament might determine their fate.
• BYU: Will a 2nd West Coast Conference make the tournament? St. Mary's had their shot at Gonzaga last night and failed; the Cougars get their chance on the 28th. A win there seems unlikely but with only Portland remaining on their schedule, they're going to need it, barring a great WCC tourney run.
• Miami: The Hurricanes have been popping in and out of the brackets for months, and after yesterday's missed opportunity vs. Louisville (a 55-53 road loss), they have one card left to play: upset North Carolina at home on the 28th. UNC's #13 RPI makes them a top prize and it would put the Canes at least into the Play-in positions, and give their lagging RPI a needed boost.

If these teams should fail to pull off their much-needed big win, well, they'll all have another chance to tackle a top team come conference tournament time. It's just better—for both the team and its fans—to lock up a spot in the Big Dance before then.

2/20 Dance Chance: Duke grabs 1-seed; Purdue in, Cincy out

The Dance Chance for February 20, 2015, sees another change near the top as Duke edges into the 1-column, replacing Wisconsin who was a 1-seed for just a couple of days. The teams were nearly tied last projection and Wisconsin beat Penn State since then, but Duke's comeback overtime win vs. North Carolina pushed the Blue Devils into the top line, with an excellent +20.5 Wins Composite. If it's any consolation to the Badgers, they garner the coveted 100% designation. Kansas was a 1-seed as recently as Monday but their loss at West Virginia opened the door for the Duke-Wisconsin battle; it's fitting that Duke is slightly ahead now, since they beat the Badgers in Madison early in the year.

Whether Duke can hold onto their #1 seed depends a lot on the ACC tournament; they're projected to win it, but if they don't then Virginia will probably be the only 1-seed from the ACC. Villanova also probably needs to win their tournament to keep their 1-seed, while Kentucky is a shoo-in no matter what.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
1	1	Kentucky	SEC	26-0	13-0	2	1	20.0	100%
2	1	Virginia	ACC	24-1	12-1	3	6	21.0	100%
3	1	Villanova	Big East	24-2	11-2	4	9	19.0	100%
4	1	Duke	ACC	23-3	10-3	5	3	20.5	100%	+1
5	2	Wisconsin	Big Ten	24-2	12-1	6	2	11.5	100%	-1
6	2	Kansas	Big 12	21-5	10-3	1	12	19.0	99.9
7	2	Arizona	Pac-12	23-3	11-2	7	5	7.0	99.9
8	2	Gonzaga	West Coast	26-1	15-0	8	4	9.5	99.9
9	3	Utah	Pac-12	20-4	11-2	9	7	5.5	99.9
10	3	Notre Dame	ACC	23-4	11-3	25	15	10.5	99.9
11	3	Iowa St.	Big 12	19-6	9-4	10	14	10.0	98.1	+1
12	3	Maryland	Big Ten	22-5	10-4	11	37	8.5	97.1

Another key conference tournament battle will be Arizona vs. Utah in the Pac-12; right now that's looking like a battle for a 2-seed for the winner. Notre Dame could be a 2-seed with an ACC tournament crown, and Iowa State—up today to a 3-seed after beating Oklahoma State—could do the same if they win the Big Twelve. Maryland's Strength rating is low enough—at 37—that their odds of winning the Big Ten tournament are pretty slim. The Terps actually rank 8th in their conference right now, so even holding onto their 3-seed may be tough.

North Carolina wasn't the only ACC team to lose a big game in the last few days—Louisville was upset by Syracuse, dropping the Cards to a 4-seed and a spot behind the Tar Heels. In the Missouri Valley, Northern Iowa and Wichita State are playing leapfrog and UNI jumps ahead in today's results. The Panthers won their 14th straight game on Wednesday, and they're up to #11 in Pomeroy's ratings, one of the biggest discrepancies vs. the Strength ratings (UNI plays the 4th slowest tempo in the nation, which compresses their winning margins).

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
13	4	Arkansas	SEC	21-5	10-3	24	26	7.0	92.3
14	4	Oklahoma	Big 12	18-8	9-5	15	11	9.0	90.6
15	4	North Carolina	ACC	18-8	8-5	12	10	7.5	89.4
16	4	Louisville	ACC	20-6	8-5	22	13	7.5	89.2	-1
17	5	Butler	Big East	19-7	9-4	23	19	8.5	88.4
18	5	Northern Iowa	MVC	25-2	14-1	16	39	3.5	88.2	+1
19	5	Wichita St.	MVC	23-3	14-1	17	20	2.5	87.3
20	5	SMU	American	21-5	13-2	19	33	5.0	84.8	+1
21	6	Baylor	Big 12	18-7	7-6	14	17	6.5	84.8	-1
22	6	Providence	Big East	19-8	9-5	21	31	9.0	84.7	+1
23	6	West Virginia	Big 12	20-6	8-5	26	22	5.5	83.4	-1
24	6	Georgetown	Big East	17-8	9-5	20	21	6.5	82.4

SMU inches up to the low 5-seed after beating Temple 67-58 Thursday night, while Big Twelve teams Baylor and West Virginia drop a notch. Neither team lost recently but wins by UNI, SMU, and Providence pushed them down in this very crowded area of the projections. The Mountaineers had jumped to the low 5-seed after upsetting Kansas. Seeding depends not just on how your team is playing, but how other teams are playing.

VCU is another team pushed down by other teams advancing; the Rams are now the top 7-seed. Right behind them are three Big Ten teams: Ohio State, Michigan State, and Indiana; the Spartans move up a seed due to Indiana's drop, as the Hoosiers lost at home to Purdue last night. San Diego State also gets a boost from Indiana's (and Oklahoma State's) drop, and the Aztecs are a 7-seed to Colorado State's 9-seed. The two had been neck-and-neck for much of the year.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
25	7	VCU	Atlantic 10	20-6	10-3	13	28	2.0	78.3	-1
26	7	Ohio St.	Big Ten	19-7	8-5	37	8	2.0	75.7
27	7	Michigan St.	Big Ten	18-8	9-4	31	18	-0.5	73.7	+1
28	7	San Diego St.	Mtn West	20-6	11-3	18	40	0.5	73.1	+1
29	8	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	16-9	7-7	28	27	8.5	72.2	-1
30	8	Indiana	Big Ten	18-9	8-6	35	36	8.0	71.5	-1
31	8	Dayton	Atlantic 10	20-5	10-3	29	48	0.5	66.4	+1
32	8	Mississippi	SEC	18-8	9-4	33	41	-3.0	65.2	+1
33	9	Texas A&M	SEC	18-7	9-4	36	51	-1.0	64.8	-1
34	9	Texas	Big 12	17-9	6-7	34	16	0.5	64.0	-1
35	9	Xavier	Big East	17-10	7-7	32	23	-0.5	62.3	+1
36	9	Colorado St.	Mtn West	21-5	9-5	27	58	0.0	62.2

Dayton moves up a notch after beating St. Joe's and is nearing VCU's realm; the Rams were once far and away the top Atlantic 10 team in the nation but have stumbled since losing Briante Weber. SEC teams Mississippi and Texas A&M swap seeds at the 8-9 border after Ole Miss beat Mississippi State on the road last night. And Xavier's win at Cincinnati Wednesday puts the Musketeers at decent shape, up 1 to a 9-seed with a 32 RPI.

The Bubble: Big Ten looking good, Pac-12 looking shaky

The Big Ten now has 8 teams in our brackets as Purdue, who stepped in then dropped to the first team out, makes an emphatic move into the seedings at a 10 after beating Indiana on the road, 67-63. That puts them behind Illinois (also a 10-seed) and just ahead of Iowa, who rebounded with an 81-47 throttling of Rutgers last night to move up a rung. All three teams have borderline overall records, but all have strong points (Illinois' 44 RPI; Purdue's 10-4 conference record; Iowa's +3.5 Wins Comp) and their deficiencies (Illinois' and Iowa's 7-6 conference rec, Purdue and Iowa's 58 and 59 RPI, Purdue's -2.5 Wins Comp), but all three are good enough to stay in come Selection Sunday.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
37	10	Illinois	Big Ten	17-9	7-6	44	30	1.5	59.9	-1
38	10	St. John's	Big East	16-9	6-7	41	49	5.0	56.8
39	10	Purdue	Big Ten	18-9	10-4	58	38	-2.5	55.2	+
40	10	Iowa	Big Ten	16-10	7-6	59	25	3.5	53.9	+1
41	11	Georgia	SEC	16-9	7-6	40	45	-3.5	52.1
42	11	Temple	American	19-8	10-4	30	79	-0.5	52.0	-1
43	11	North Carolina St.	ACC	15-11	6-7	47	32	2.0	51.3	+1
44	11	LSU	SEC	18-8	7-6	54	53	0.0	51.3
45	11	Oregon	Pac-12	18-8	9-5	60	60	-0.5	50.2	+1
46	12	Davidson	Atlantic 10	17-6	9-4	56	34	-0.5	49.4	+
47	12	Stanford	Pac-12	16-9	7-6	53	42	-2.0	48.5	-1
48		UCLA	Pac-12	16-11	8-6	45	54	-2.0	48.2	-

Temple's loss to SMU means they're in some danger at an 11-seed, as is 15-11 North Carolina State even though they rise out of Play-in purgatory.  Davidson beat Atlantic 10 rival George Washington and they enter the brackets again; the Wildcats have a 34 Strength which means they're probably good enough to hold on.

The Pac-12 teams might not be so fortunate. Right now the conference has 4 teams in, but two are Play-in teams, while UCLA is the first team out. Will the Pac-12 have five teams in, or just two? Oregon is in the best shape currently after beating Colorado Wednesday night, while UCLA's loss at Arizona State hurt but wasn't a death blow by any means. Oregon and Stanford play on March 1st, and that could determine which squad goes dancing. UCLA has three easy games they host Utah on Sunday; that game could be an opportunity to seal their bid; the Ducks and Cardinal both play Arizona, which is a similar "opportunity" if they are optimists.

The Lower Bubble: Multiple ACC, West Coast, and American hopefuls

Boise State of the Mountain West is the 2nd team out, and Tulsa of the American Athletic Conference is third out. But their Strength ratings suggest that Boise has a much better chance of busting into the brackets for good than Tulsa does of recovering. Both teams get a shot at their conference leader—on the road, however. Another American team, Cincinnati, took a huge hit from a home loss to Xavier, their 3rd defeat in a row; the Bearcats fell from an 11-seed to below the Second Four Out as their RPI dropped from 34 to 52 in the last 2 days.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
49		Boise St.	Mtn West	17-7	9-4	38	55	-3.5	48.1
50		Tulsa	American	18-6	11-2	48	88	0.0	47.3
51		Syracuse*	ACC	17-9	8-5	65	44	-2.0	46.4
52		Miami FL	ACC	17-9	7-6	66	43	-2.0	43.7
53		BYU	West Coast	19-8	11-5	57	24	-4.5	42.1
54		Rhode Island	Atlantic 10	17-6	10-3	64	59	-1.5	42.0
55		Saint Mary's	West Coast	19-6	12-3	50	63	-6.0	41.2
56		Pittsburgh	ACC	16-10	6-7	49	72	-1.0	40.9
57		Cincinnati	American	17-9	8-5	52	61	1.0	40.4	-
58	12	Iona	Metro Atl	21-6	14-2	42	84	-6.0	37.0

The ACC has two teams in the First and Second Four Out, three if you count Syracuse who is actually in the best shape of the trio after upsetting Louisville. Miami continues to float below the brackets as their home win over lowly Virginia Tech did nothing for them—their RPI fell from 62 to 66. Pittsburgh's RPI is 49 and they play both Syracuse and Miami, so with a strong finish they could be in the mix.

And in the West Coast, BYU and St. Mary's continue to win and inch their way up the charts, each hoping to give Gonzaga some company in the brackets. They both play the Bulldogs again in the regular season, a game which might be their only chance to secure an at-large bid. Finally, Iona ranks as our top bracket buster from a definite 1-bid league; they're are within striking distance but are out of ammo as their remaining schedule is sadly weak. They are far and away the best team in their league and should win the Metro Atlantic and get a 12-seed, but if they don't, it's the NIT for the Gaels.

Villanova joins 1-seeds; projected champs change in ACC, PAC-12 and 5 other leagues

A few things changes since Thursday's projections: Villanvoa joined the 1-seeds, and the projected champions of 7 conferences switched and with them, the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

First things first—the 1-seeds. Kentucky is the top overall at 25-0, no surprise there. Virginia remained right behind the Wildcats at 23-1 but there are major signs of weakness in the Cavaliers without Justin Anderson, and this is showing up in their plummeting Strength rating. After beating 12-14 Wake Forest by a point at home Virginia falls to #5 in Strength, making Duke the favorite in the ACC tournament. If this trend continues, the Cavaliers might have to settle for a 2-seed, given how many strong candidates for the top line there are.

Speaking of which, Villanova's road win over Butler puts the Wildcats on the 1-line, replacing Wisconsin. The Badgers didn't lose but Iowa's loss to Northwestern dropped the Hawkeyes out of the top 50 RPI, depriving Wisconsin of two Top 50 RPI wins. It's a tight race from #3 to #5 between those teams and Kansas, who beat Baylor to hold onto their top seed. But the Jayhawks are still one place behind Oklahoma in Strength, and if they don't win the Big Twelve tournament they're unlikely to hold onto it. Again, too many good teams vying for four spots.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
1	1	Kentucky	SEC	25-0	12-0	2	1	18.5	100%
2	1	Virginia	ACC	23-1	11-1	3	5	19.0	100%
3	1	Villanova	Big East	23-2	10-2	4	9	18.5	100%	+1
4	1	Kansas	Big 12	21-4	10-2	1	12	22.0	99.9
5	2	Wisconsin	Big Ten	23-2	11-1	6	2	11.0	99.9	-1
6	2	Duke	ACC	22-3	9-3	5	4	17.5	99.9
7	2	Arizona	Pac-12	22-3	10-2	7	6	9.5	99.9
8	2	Gonzaga	West Coast	25-1	14-0	8	3	9.0	99.9
9	3	Utah	Pac-12	19-4	10-2	9	7	6.0	99.9

Arizona and Gonzaga are, in our estimation, hoping for the top six teams to stumble, as their Wins Composites are not up to 1-seed level. The Wildcats (there are three sets of Wildcats in the top 2 seeds, confusing) do nudge pass Utah in Strength, and if they win the Pac-12 tournament they have a good shot at a 1-seed. Speaking of Utah, the Utes move up to the top of the 3-seed line but the gap between the top 8 teams and everyone else is pretty big.

Notre Dame is sitting pretty in the ACC as Louisville and North Carolina both were upset over the weekend, UNC to Pitt, 89-76, and the Cards to NC State 74-65 at home. Both held their seeds (3 and 4) but slid to the bottom of those rungs. Maryland is back up to a 3-seed with a top ten RPI, and Arkansas continues to build a case for a very high seed, and we have them at the top of the 4-line at 20-5.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
10	3	Notre Dame	ACC	22-4	10-3	27	15	10.0	99.3
11	3	Maryland	Big Ten	21-5	9-4	10	36	9.5	96.8	+1
12	3	Louisville	ACC	20-5	8-4	14	13	7.0	95.2
13	4	Arkansas	SEC	20-5	9-3	18	25	6.5	92.7	+1
14	4	Iowa St.	Big 12	18-6	8-4	13	14	8.5	92.5
15	4	North Carolina	ACC	18-7	8-4	11	10	6.5	91.8
16	4	Oklahoma	Big 12	17-8	8-5	17	11	12.0	90.7	-1
17	5	Butler	Big East	18-7	8-4	22	18	8.5	87.1	-1

In the Big Twelve Iowa State holds their 4-seed with a 79-59 blasting of West Virginia while Oklahoma's stint as a 3-seed came to a quick end as they were upset by Kansas State. As noted above, the Sooners are still a (very narrow!) favorite to win the Big Twelve tournament, which would help a lot. Butler's loss to Villanova dropped the Bulldogs to the top of the 5-seed line.

The most interesting conference race continues at the top of the Missouri Valley. Wichita State pulls back ahead of Northern Iowa in the Dance Chance, as UNI loses a neutral court Top 50 RPI win due to Iowa's loss. The Hawkeyes probably didn't know the havoc they were wreaking by losing to lowly Northwestern. The Shockers and Panthers are both 13-1 in conference, both 5-seeds and climbing, albeit slowly, and meet again on February 28 (and probably again in the MVC tournament). Another non-Major conference team (though the American is close to Major), SMU, is up to the top of the 6-line after blasting last year's NCAA champ UConn 73-55.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
18	5	Wichita St.	MVC	22-3	13-1	15	20	2.5	86.2	+1
19	5	Northern Iowa	MVC	24-2	13-1	19	41	3.0	83.9
20	5	Baylor	Big 12	17-7	6-6	16	16	7.5	82.5
21	6	SMU	American	20-5	12-2	24	33	5.0	80.6	+1
22	6	West Virginia	Big 12	19-6	7-5	28	21	4.5	79.8
23	6	Providence	Big East	18-8	8-5	23	40	8.0	78.8	+1
24	6	Indiana	Big Ten	18-8	8-5	29	31	8.5	78.7	+1
25	7	Georgetown	Big East	16-8	8-5	21	23	5.5	78.0	-1
26	7	Ohio St.	Big Ten	19-7	8-5	34	8	1.5	77.0	-1
27	7	VCU	Atlantic 10	19-6	9-3	12	27	2.0	76.9
28	7	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	16-8	7-6	25	26	9.0	76.7	-2

Providence and Indiana are up a notch following weekend wins while conference-mates Georgetown and Ohio State are down. The Buckeyes fell to Michigan State; the Hoyas didn't play but were pushed to the top 7-seed. Oklahoma State did play, and were upset 70-55 at TCU, who is only 2-10 in conference play. The Cowboys drop from a 5-seed to the low 7-seed.

In the Mountain West, San Diego State makes some distance between themselves and Colorado State, winning 72-63 and avenging an earlier loss to the Rams. The Aztecs are up to the top 8-seed while CSU remains a 9. The biggest risers are in the 8-9 range as Michigan State, Dayton, and St. John's all jump two seed lines. The Spartans beat Ohio State, and St. John's won 78-70 at Xavier, while Dayton's RPI improved to #30 with a win over St. Bonaventure.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
29	8	San Diego St.	Mtn West	19-6	10-3	20	42	1.0	70.3	+1
30	8	Texas	Big 12	17-8	6-6	33	17	3.0	69.6
31	8	Michigan St.	Big Ten	17-8	8-4	36	19	-1.5	68.2	+2
32	8	Dayton	Atlantic 10	19-5	9-3	30	46	0.0	63.6	+2
33	9	Mississippi	SEC	17-8	8-4	37	38	-2.5	62.6	-1
34	9	Colorado St.	Mtn West	20-5	8-5	26	56	0.5	61.6
35	9	St. John's	Big East	16-8	6-6	41	45	5.0	60.4	+2
36	9	Georgia	SEC	16-8	7-5	32	43	-2.5	59.7	-1
37	10	Illinois	Big Ten	17-9	7-6	45	32	1.5	59.4	-1
38	10	Texas A&M	SEC	17-7	8-4	44	50	-1.0	59.4
39	10	Xavier	Big East	16-10	7-7	40	22	0.5	59.2	-2

On the down side, Mississippi, Georgia, and Illinois all dropped a notch; Ole Miss fell to Arkansas, Georgia was upset by Auburn, and Illinois lost badly to Wisconsin. Xavier's home loss to St. John's drops them from an 8- to a 10-seed.

The Bubble: UCLA in decent shape while Oregon drops out

UCLA's resurgence from their 8-7 nadir has been remarkable, and the Bruins are 8-3 since that point and are in reasonably good shape as the low 10-seed now. Contrast that to Stanford, who falls to the Play-in line with a loss to Colorado. The Cardinal have lost 4 of their last 5—and were swept by the Bruins this season. UCLA's latest win was over Oregon, and it knocks the Ducks out of the seedings but they're right on the very tip of the waterline as first team out.

Meanwhile in the Big Ten, Iowa's loss to Northwestern didn't just hurt Wisconsin and UNI, it also hurt the Hawkeyes who fall from a 9-seed to an 11. At the same time Purdue now stands 9-4 in conference play and just nudges into the brackets, giving us 8 seeded Big Ten teams. The Boilermakers still have to overcome a 66 RPI and a -4.0 Wins Composite, which results from some very bad losses early in the year.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
40	10	UCLA	Pac-12	16-10	8-5	38	54	1.5	57.7	+1
41	11	Temple	American	19-7	10-3	31	77	1.5	56.9
42	11	LSU	SEC	18-7	7-5	53	52	0.0	54.8	+1
43	11	Iowa	Big Ten	15-10	6-6	56	29	3.5	52.3	-2
44	11	Stanford	Pac-12	16-9	7-6	50	39	-1.5	51.4	-1
45	11	Cincinnati	American	17-8	8-5	35	60	1.5	50.3
46	12	North Carolina St.	ACC	15-11	6-7	49	34	1.0	49.4	+
47	12	Purdue	Big Ten	17-9	9-4	66	37	-4.0	48.4	+
48		Oregon	Pac-12	17-8	8-5	60	61	-0.5	48.0	-
49		Tulsa	American	17-6	10-2	47	90	0.5	45.7
50		Davidson	Atlantic 10	16-6	8-4	62	35	-2.0	43.4
51		Boise St.	Mtn West	16-7	8-4	42	55	-4.5	43.2	-

North Carolina State also edges onto the Play-in line after upsetting Louisville on the road. The Wolfpack are precarious at 15-11 and 6-7 in conference but their RPI is in the top 50 now and their Wins Comp is positive; neither was the case before beating Louisville. What a difference a game makes. Boise State found that out, too, in the reverse: just after making the brackets last Thursday, the Broncos lost to 12-13 Fresno State and drop back into the First Four Out.

Lower down in the bubble, ACC teams Pitt and Miami head the Second Four Out. The Panthers got here by beating North Carolina, while Miami has been a struggling bubble team for weeks. BYU and St. Mary's have been representing the West Coast from outside the brackets for some time, too. Syracuse, of course, made their bubble position irrelevant by self-sanctioning, and Rhode Island is one of several Atlantic 10 teams who hope to get in but probably won't.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
52		Pittsburgh	ACC	16-9	6-6	52	73	-1.5	41.8
53		Miami FL	ACC	15-9	5-6	64	44	-2.0	40.2
54		BYU	West Coast	18-8	10-5	58	24	-4.5	39.7
55		Syracuse*	ACC	16-9	7-5	70	48	-4.0	39.3
56		Saint Mary's	West Coast	18-6	11-3	55	65	-5.0	37.6
57		Rhode Island	Atlantic 10	16-6	9-3	67	62	-3.0	36.9
58	12	Iona	Metro Atl	21-6	14-2	46	82	-5.5	36.6
59	12	Valparaiso	Horizon	21-4	11-2	61	63	-4.5	33.9	+1

But the interesting thing is the lack of small-conference bracket-busters. There are really no teams from the minor conferences who are in position to get an at-large bid if they lose in their tournament. Right now, Iona and Valpo are the top candidates, and they probably won't quite make the cut-off if they lose in their tournament.

Several weeks ago Old Dominion was in fair shape for an at-large bid but after losing to UTEP, not only are they no longer the top-ranked C-USA team in the Dance Chance, but they slip behind the Miners in Strength, #80 to #81. It seems clear that Conference USA is going to be a 1-bid team, and it will be a dogfight between UTEP, Old Dominion, and Louisiana Tech (#85 in Strength).

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
71	13	UTEP	C-USA	18-7	10-3	63	80	-6.0	20.4	+
72		Old Dominion	C-USA	18-6	7-5	54	81	-5.5	19.9	-
74		Harvard	Ivy League	15-5	7-1	51	96	-4.0	19.3	-
83	13	Yale	Ivy League	16-7	7-1	59	94	-8.0	11.3	+
124		UC Irvine	Big West	12-10	7-3	123	109	-12.0	0.1	-
125	15	UC Santa Barbara	Big West	11-11	6-4	117	105	-10.5	0.1	+

Yale also surpassed Harvard in Strength, #94 to #96. Both teams control their destiny (remember, the Ivy League doesn't have a tournament)so we will simply list the team with the better Strength rating as the champ, but the rematch is at Harvard so they probably have the realistic edge . Another conference switch listed above is UC Santa Barbara taking over from UC Irvine in the Big West. And Florida Gulf Coast and High Point became our favorites in the Atlantic Sun and Big South, respectively, taking over from USC Upstate and Radford. All of these races are very close, so they may switch around for the weeks leading up to the conference tournaments, where things will be settled once and for all.

2/12 Dance Chance: UCLA back in, Oklahoma a 3-seed

There isn't much change at the top of the Dance Chance (circa Thursday, February 12) since Monday, but the bubble is active as usual, with UCLA and Boise State in at the expense of Tulsa and Miami.

The top two seeds are all very solid, and any team here could easily end up a 1-seed. The top overall seed, 24-0 Kentucky, finally regained the #1 spot in the RPI after edging LSU on the road Tuesday, and right behind them, 22-1 Virginia finally gets their 100% Dance Chance designation following a win over North Carolina State. Wisconsin and Kansas round out the top seeds, but Villanova and Duke are close behind, with the Wildcats pushing to the #5 spot on the S-curve at 22-2.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
1	1	Kentucky	SEC	24-0	11-0	1	1	19.5	100%
2	1	Virginia	ACC	22-1	10-1	3	3	17.0	100%
3	1	Wisconsin	Big Ten	22-2	10-1	6	2	12.0	99.9
4	1	Kansas	Big 12	20-4	9-2	2	13	19.0	99.9
5	2	Villanova	Big East	22-2	9-2	4	10	14.0	99.9
6	2	Duke	ACC	21-3	8-3	5	5	15.0	99.9
7	2	Gonzaga	West Coast	24-1	13-0	8	4	8.5	99.9
8	2	Arizona	Pac-12	20-3	8-2	7	8	8.0	99.9

Gonzaga moves up to #7 overall, passing Arizona. If Joe Lunardi is right about the committee definitely wanting a Western team for the West regional, then the 'Zags are the team—if Arizona's head-to-head overtime win isn't considered. The Bulldogs are the favorites with most bracketologists, but if say, Wisconsin and Villanova win out, will those 2-loss teams in major conferences be left out for a 1-loss mid-Major?

The 3-seeds are largely the same, too, except that the ACC troika of Louisville, Notre Dame, and North Carolina has been disrupted as Utah and Oklahoma move past the Tar Heels. The Utes beat Stanford 75-59 last night and the Oklahoma topped Iowa State, 94-83, moving the Sooners up to the 3-line.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
9	3	Louisville	ACC	20-4	8-3	11	12	8.0	99.9
10	3	Notre Dame	ACC	22-4	10-3	28	14	8.5	98.7
11	3	Utah	Pac-12	18-4	9-2	10	6	5.0	97.5
12	3	Oklahoma	Big 12	17-7	8-4	12	11	12.5	96.8	+1
13	4	North Carolina	ACC	18-6	8-3	9	9	7.0	96.1	-1
14	4	Maryland	Big Ten	20-5	8-4	14	33	9.5	94.5	+1
15	4	Butler	Big East	18-6	8-3	18	18	6.5	89.7
16	4	Iowa St.	Big 12	17-6	7-4	19	16	8.5	87.7

North Carolina is pushed down to the highest 4-seed, where they're joined by Maryland, who is fresh off a close win over Indiana. Butler and the Cyclones remain 4-seeds.

Though the SEC may get 6 bids, only Kentucky and Arkansas are solid bets for upper seeds. The Razorbacks are a strong 5-seed in our book at 19-5 and 8-3 in conference. The Big Twelve, on the other hand, will have a lot of higher-up seeds, including Baylor and Oklahoma State. The Cowboys upset the Bears in Waco, and that 74-65 win pops them up from a 7-seed and drops the Bears from a 4-seed.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
17	5	Arkansas	SEC	19-5	8-3	23	26	5.0	86.5
18	5	Baylor	Big 12	17-6	6-5	15	15	7.0	85.4	-1
19	5	Northern Iowa	MVC	23-2	12-1	17	40	4.0	84.3	+1
20	5	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	16-7	7-5	20	24	9.5	82.9	+2
21	6	Wichita St.	MVC	21-3	12-1	16	22	2.0	82.2	-1
22	6	Ohio St.	Big Ten	19-6	8-4	35	7	3.0	81.3
23	6	West Virginia	Big 12	19-5	7-4	30	21	2.5	79.4
24	6	Georgetown	Big East	16-8	8-5	21	23	5.5	78.8	+1
25	7	SMU	American	19-5	11-2	24	36	5.0	77.8
26	7	VCU	Atlantic 10	18-6	8-3	13	28	3.5	75.2	-2
27	7	Providence	Big East	17-8	7-5	25	42	6.5	74.5	-1
28	7	Indiana	Big Ten	17-8	7-5	33	37	8.5	74.3

The duel between Wichita State and Northern Iowa continues, with a twist this time around as the Panthers pass the Shockers, who dip to a 6-seed, but this matter will be settled on the court eventually. In the Big East, a Georgetown win over Seton Hall moves the Hoyas up to a 6-seed while Providence's loss to Villanova drops them to a 7-seed. And Virginia Commonwealth drops from a 5-seed to a 7-seed after losing in overtime at home to La Salle. The Rams still have a great RPI but have lost 3 of their last 4 games.

As usual, there is a lot of movement around the 8- and 9-seeds. Georgia established itself with a win at Texas A&M; meanwhile Mississippi won at Florida and join the Bulldogs on the 8-line. Xavier moves into the last 8-seed, while Mountain West teams San Diego State and Colorado State both move up to 9-seeds.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
29	8	Georgia	SEC	16-7	7-4	22	34	-0.5	70.0
30	8	Texas	Big 12	16-8	5-6	31	17	3.5	68.8
31	8	Mississippi	SEC	17-7	8-3	37	39	-0.5	66.7	+1
32	8	Xavier	Big East	16-9	7-6	34	19	1.0	65.8	+1
33	9	San Diego St.	Mtn West	18-6	9-3	26	43	0.5	64.3	+1
34	9	Illinois	Big Ten	17-8	7-5	44	30	1.5	63.1	+1
35	9	Iowa	Big Ten	15-9	6-5	42	29	5.0	63.1	-1
36	9	Colorado St.	Mtn West	20-4	8-4	27	57	-0.5	62.1	+1
37	10	Stanford	Pac-12	16-8	7-5	40	35	1.0	61.8	-1
38	10	Michigan St.	Big Ten	16-8	7-4	46	20	-1.0	61.6	+1
39	10	Dayton	Atlantic 10	18-5	8-3	36	46	0.5	59.1
40	10	Texas A&M	SEC	16-7	7-4	43	50	-1.5	56.7	-2

The Big Ten figures heavily in the 9- and 10-seeds, with Illinois up to a 9 after dominating the overtime against Michigan last night while Iowa fell at home to Minnesota; the Hawkeyes drop from an 8 while Michigan State is up to a 10-seed. Stanford drops a seed while Texas A&M, who is 0-5 against the RPI Top 50, is the low 10-seed.

The Bubble: UCLA, Boise State in, Tulsa, Miami out

Oregon wasn't getting much respect from bracketologists—they were in only a handful of brackets just a few days ago—but that seems to be changing. In our brackets they're up to the high 11 seed. The American conference figures heavily here, as Temple's win over Cincinnati bumps the Owls up a level and knocks the Bearcats down from a 9-seed. At the same time, Tulsa's loss to Connecticut knocks the Golden Hurricane out of the seedings. They're the first team out, however, and their 10-2 conference record and 45 RPI keep them in decent shape, though their #90 strength is a cause for concern going forward.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
41	11	Oregon	Pac-12	17-7	8-4	52	61	1.0	55.8
42	11	Cincinnati	American	17-7	8-4	29	60	1.5	55.4	-2
43	11	Temple	American	18-7	9-3	32	78	1.5	54.1	+1
44	11	UCLA	Pac-12	15-10	7-5	41	54	1.0	53.7	+
45	11	St. John's	Big East	15-8	5-6	51	49	3.0	51.4	+1
46	12	LSU	SEC	17-7	6-5	57	59	1.0	50.5	-1
47	12	Boise St.	Mtn West	16-6	8-3	38	52	-4.0	48.0	+
48		Tulsa	American	17-6	10-2	45	90	0.5	46.8	-
49		Syracuse*	ACC	16-8	7-4	62	48	-3.5	45.8
50		Purdue	Big Ten	16-9	8-4	70	38	-3.5	44.3
51		Minnesota	Big Ten	15-9	5-7	68	25	0.0	43.7
52		Miami FL	ACC	15-9	5-6	66	44	-2.5	38.7	-

UCLA moves back in after beating Oregon State, and the Mountain West gets their 3rd team as Boise State edges their way in as the last Play-In team. The Broncos are on a tear lately, and only a few bad losses prevent them from ranking up with San Diego State and Colorado State.

Miami's loss to Wake Forest dumps them out of the brackets, though they remain in the Four Four Out—ACC teammate Syracuse is in better shape than the Hurricanes right now, if not for their self-imposed post-season ban. In the Big Ten, Purdue and Minnesota both won last night, with the Gophers' win at Iowa giving them new life. Still, they need to bring their RPI closer to their now-top-25-level Strength.

The lower bubble contains a number of Atlantic 10 teams, two of whom were in the First Four Out last week. Davidson is now the conference's best hope for a third bid after Rhode Island lost to St. Joseph's and George Washington lost to Duquesne, both Wednesday night. Two West Coast hopefuls, BYU and St. Mary's, are here, too: the Cougars beat the Gaels last night, but the only recipe for an at-large bid for either is to upset Gonzaga.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
53		Alabama	SEC	14-9	5-6	63	56	-1.0	38.0
54		Davidson	Atlantic 10	15-6	7-4	75	32	-1.5	37.5
55		BYU	West Coast	17-8	9-5	54	27	-5.0	37.5
56		North Carolina St.	ACC	14-11	5-7	65	41	-1.5	35.8
57		Rhode Island	Atlantic 10	15-6	8-3	71	62	-2.5	33.7
58		Seton Hall	Big East	15-9	5-7	69	58	-2.5	33.1
59		George Washington	Atlantic 10	17-7	7-4	67	66	-2.0	32.8
60		Oregon St.	Pac-12	15-8	7-5	72	84	-3.0	32.0
61		Saint Mary's	West Coast	17-6	10-3	64	68	-5.5	29.9
62		Pittsburgh	ACC	15-9	5-6	59	87	-5.0	29.4
63	12	Old Dominion	C-USA	18-5	7-4	48	72	-3.0	29.2

And below a clutch of flawed Major-conference teams, most of whom lost in recent days, we find Old Dominion. The Monarchs lost to Texas-San Antonio last night, giving them their 4th loss in Conference-USA play. With that, it looks like the myth that Old Dominion can get an at-large bid is fading pretty rapidly.

RPInsanity: Kansas is still ahead of Kentucky

I realize that criticizing the RPI is like beating a dead horse. Well, not exactly since the RPI is still very alive. But the problems with the RPI are pretty widely acknowledged and clearly documented.

That doesn't mean that we can't be redundant and vent a little bit, too.

Lately Kansas has been #1 in the RPI. That in itself isn't unusual; it seems that Kansas is always #1 in the RPI. The Jayhawks are usually one of the best teams and, more importantly, they tend to play the toughest schedule of any of the top teams. Hence, due to the RPI formula which rewards schedule strength above all else, we often find Kansas at #1 in the RPI. Often it's very justifiable.

This year though, the juxtaposition of Kansas at #1 and Kentucky behind them at #2 is too ludicrous to ignore. There should never be a system that has Kansas ahead of Kentucky at this point in the season, especially not one that's so important come Selection Sunday.

Kansas is 20-4, and that's great. Kentucky is 24-0, and that doesn't automatically mean they should be ahead of a 20-4 Kansas. Schedule strength, and more specifically, which teams you've beaten and which you've lost to, will obviously affect a rating system. Last year's Wichita State team was also 24-0 after 24 games, but you could argue for Kansas ranking ahead of the Shockers based on schedule strength. But not Kentucky. Let's take a look (RPI through games of 2/10/15):

 RPI                       Div I        SOS  vs.   51-   101-      Record
 Rnk Team                  record  RPI  rnk  t50   100   200  Road  Neut  Home
  1. Kansas                 20-4  .6965   1  8-4   4-0   8-0   5-3   3-1  12-0
  2. Kentucky               24-0  .6960  10  9-0   5-0   8-0   7-0   2-0  15-0

You'll notice Kansas is #1 in SOS, but that Kentucky is #10. Should that override the fact that Kentucky is 24-0 and Kansas is 20-4? In a system where SOS is 3/4 of the formula, it does. Here are the SOS breakdowns:

RPI                        Div I        [.25   .50   .25 ]          
rnk  Team                  record  RPI= [AWP + OPW + OOWP] SOS [rnk]
  1. Kansas                 20-4  .6965 .8600 .6785 .5691 .6420[  1]
  2. Kentucky               24-0  .6960 1.000 .6078 .5685 .5947[ 10]

Kansas has an OPW of .6785 to Kentucky's .6078—that's the Opponents' Win Percentage. The OOPW's (Opponents' opponents win percentage) are about even. The OPW is 50% of the RPI formula, while the AWP (the team's own Adjusted Win Percentage) counts for just 25%.

Bottom line, Kansas' OWP overwhelms Kentucky's AWP and ranks the Jayhawks in front, .6965 to .6960.

In any case, the balance of the formula, while one of its problems, is not the main issue. Adjusting the weights might make the RPI a bit better, but its real shortcoming is that the formula loses all knowledge of which teams a given team has defeated or lost to.

This is why various pundits and bracketologists—and the selection committee—are forced to rely on "top 50 wins" and "quality road wins" to see if a team is actually worthy of a bid. If the RPI was good enough on its own, we wouldn't have to do this. But we know that the RPI can't see the forest for the trees, for example, let's go back to Kansas and Kentucky:

 RPI                         vs.   51-   101-      Record
 Rnk Team                    t50   100   200  Road  Neut  Home
  1. Kansas                  8-4   4-0   8-0   5-3   3-1  12-0
  2. Kentucky                9-0   5-0   8-0   7-0   2-0  15-0

Look at top 50 wins. Kentucky is 9-0 and Kansas is 8-4. Not only does Kentucky have a better percentage (100% to 66.7%) against the top 50, they actually have more top 50 wins. It's not like Kentucky is 2-0 and Kansas 8-4. Kentucky is 9-0. They also have more wins against the second 50, and have a better road record (7-0 to 5-3). The RPI includes a bonus for road wins (that's the "adjusted" part of the APW) but it doesn't know which teams you beat on the road; the bonus is the same.

We're also choosing to ignore the real elephant in the room—that is, Kentucky's 72-40 neutral court win over the Jayhawks. Mainly because it's too easy. Any 5-year-old would rank Kentucky ahead of Kansas based on that. And it's a bit unfair, too, since the RPI is explicitly designed to ignore victory margin. For all the RPI knows, the game went into triple overtime so there really isn't much difference between the teams.

However, the RPI is supposed boost a team that plays and beats good opponents. The problem is that it quickly forgets that Kentucky beat Kansas. That information is lost once Kentucky's AWP adds 1.0 to the win total. The OWP adds Kansas' record, and the OOPW adds Kansas' opponents' records into the mix. For Kansas, the RPI knows they lost 4 games, but not that one of those losses was to Kentucky. It knows they played the Wildcats and lost to 4 teams total.

Kansas shows up as one of the 9 top 50 wins Kentucky has, but only if you do some post-processing and tease this information out. It doesn't affect Kentucky's rating, and any bad teams Kentucky plays dilute their schedule strength so that playing Kansas might not matter. In fact, just playing Kansas is almost as good as beating Kansas—and for Kansas, that's true of playing Kentucky, too.

So what's the upshot? When listing a team's NCAA résumé, many sportswriters cite the RPI then also list other information that is needed to account for the RPI's shortcomings. Sometimes it's top 50 wins, or road record, but often they also list the SOS. That, I think, is a mistake. It implies that the RPI doesn't tell us enough about the team's SOS, when in fact it tells us too much if anything. It's adding redundant information, and suggests that a good SOS somehow "validates" a team's RPI, when in reality the SOS is guiding the RPI from the start. An example is ESPN's Bubble Watch, which typically lists teams résumés like this:

SMU [19-5 (10-2), RPI: 22, SOS: 57]

Here we get some relevant information: overall record, conference record, RPI, and SOS. Our point being that the last bit of information is not informative: the RPI alone should tell you that SMU has a decent enough schedule, after looking at their overall record. An SOS of 57, being worse than their RPI, looks like a flaw, but remember that all sorts of teams can have a good SOS, whether they're good or not. So most top teams teams are not going to have an SOS that matches or exceeds their RPI.

In fact, of the top 25 in the RPI, only 5 teams have an SOS better than their RPI. 18 have an SOS ranking worse than their RPI, and two teams match. This is normal and expected, since the RPI is a mixture of winning percentage and SOS. Therefore, listing a team's SOS after the RPI is usually going to look like a criticism. SOS is such a huge part of RPI, it would be better to just list a team's record and then their SOS, since those are completely unrelated stats that come together to form the RPI.

A better idea would be to list their record vs. Top 50 RPI teams, since that is something that the RPI doesn't really reflect. Look how it changes Notre Dame's line:

Notre Dame [21-4 (9-3), RPI: 28, SOS: 113]

Notre Dame [21-4 (9-3), RPI: 28, Top 50: 4-3]

What do we learn from seeing the Irish have a 113 SOS? Nothing that their RPI—low at 28 given their 21-4 record—didn't already tell us. But seeing that they have a winning record against the top teams should tell us that they're a good team that has played its share of other good teams.

SMU's listing would be:

SMU [19-5 (10-2), RPI: 22, Top 50: 2-5]

and that actually tells us something new about the Mustangs. It tells us how many of the best teams they've played as well as how many they beat. It gives us information about the team's schedule strength, but in a different way than the RPI's SOS does, by including only the top teams played (who really cares if the cupcakes they beat were ranked 175 on average rather than 250?). And it immediately tells us that all of their losses were to top 50 teams—they didn't lose to any cupcakes or even below-the-bubble level competition.

Just like Kansas. Hey, maybe SMU should be the RPI #1 ?

 

February 8 Dance Chance: Kansas still edges Duke for last top seed

Kansas held on to their 1-seed despite suffering a loss, holding off a surging Duke in the latest Dance Chance NCAA tournament bracket projections, through games of Sunday, February 8.

On the very top, of course, is Kentucky. The Wildcats beat Florida on the road to start 23-0 and became the first 100% Dance Chance "lock" of the season. The rest of the top 2 seeds are still vulnerable to missing the Big Dance if they lose out, which could happen if hell freezes over. In any case, Virginia is a strong #2 on the S-curve after beating Louisville Saturday, and Wisconsin moves up to the third position, having taken care of Northwestern. Kansas lost at Oklahoma State 67-62 but they're still #1 in the RPI and have a Wins Composite right up there with Kentucky and Virginia. That helps them edge Duke, who has a slightly better overall record, and much better Strength. The Blue Devils are 7-3 in conference, worst among the top teams, and probably will have to win the ACC tournament to nab a 1-seed.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
1	1	Kentucky	SEC	23-0	10-0	2	1	19.5	100%
2	1	Virginia	ACC	21-1	9-1	3	3	17.5	99.9
3	1	Wisconsin	Big Ten	21-2	9-1	6	2	11.5	99.9
4	1	Kansas	Big 12	19-4	8-2	1	13	18.0	99.9
5	2	Duke	ACC	20-3	7-3	4	4	14.5	99.9
6	2	Villanova	Big East	21-2	8-2	5	10	11.0	99.9
7	2	Arizona	Pac-12	20-3	8-2	7	8	7.5	99.9
8	2	Gonzaga	West Coast	23-1	12-0	8	5	8.5	99.9

Villanova is now 21-2 and in good position for a top seed run, but right now they are very heavy consensus 2-seed. Meanwhile Arizona suffered a worse loss than Kansas—to 12-11 Arizona State—but managed to remain a 2-seed, just ahead of Gonzaga, whom they beat in overtime at home back in December. The Bulldogs are stuck behind an unusually strong set of teams, in terms of seeding the tournament, and might need more losses above them to make it to a 1-seed (or to remain there in they eyes of most Bracketologists).

The ACC might have 5 teams in the top 3 seeds and not much else. Both Notre Dame and Louisville lost over the weekend and didn't drop below North Carolina. That's due to their opposition; the RPI doesn't care how badly the Irish lost to Duke (90-60 for the record) or how close Louisville was to beating Virginia (52-47) on the road, and UNC's win over Boston College didn't close the gap.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
9	3	Notre Dame	ACC	21-4	9-3	26	15	8.5	97.2
10	3	Louisville	ACC	19-4	7-3	13	12	7.5	96.3
11	3	North Carolina	ACC	18-6	8-3	10	9	7.0	95.9
12	3	Utah	Pac-12	17-4	8-2	12	6	4.0	92.8	+1
13	4	Iowa St.	Big 12	17-5	7-3	15	16	8.5	91.4
14	4	Oklahoma	Big 12	16-7	7-4	14	11	10.5	90.9
15	4	Butler	Big East	18-6	8-3	18	17	6.5	90.2	-1
16	4	Baylor	Big 12	17-5	6-4	11	14	7.0	89.3	+1

Utah beat 11-11 Colorado and is once again the top Strength team in the Pac-12, but that's not what moved them up to a 3-seed—it was Butler's fall to a 4-seed that opened up the slot. Why did the Bulldogs, who topped DePaul on Saturday, drop? Unfortunately for them, both St. John's and Seton Hall dropped out of the top 50 RPI, which docked four top 50 wins off Butler's slate. Normally things don't change this much based on randomness, but they do change what the Committee sees under "top 50 wins."

The Big Twelve easily has the most parity of any league, and three teams are jammed at the 4-line: Iowa State (who beat Texas Tech 75-38), Oklahoma, and Baylor, who moves up a line after a big 87-69 road win at West Virginia.

A few weeks ago Maryland was a Dance Chance 1-seed; we said it wouldn't last and it didn't: now the Terps are a 5-seed after losing at Iowa. Also becoming a 5-seed, up from 6, is Wichita State, who stays one S-curve spot ahead of Missouri Valley roommates Northern Iowa. The Shockers were 78-35 winners over Missouri State on Saturday, which puts on display the conference's lack of solid teams. UNI has won 11 conference games in a row.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
17	5	Maryland	Big Ten	19-5	7-4	17	33	6.5	87.1	-1
18	5	Arkansas	SEC	18-5	7-3	25	28	5.0	82.6
19	5	VCU	Atlantic 10	18-5	8-2	9	23	5.0	81.7
20	5	Wichita St.	MVC	20-3	11-1	16	20	2.5	80.4	+1
21	6	Northern Iowa	MVC	22-2	11-1	19	42	3.5	79.7
22	6	Providence	Big East	17-7	7-4	20	41	6.5	79.1	-1
23	6	West Virginia	Big 12	18-5	6-4	29	19	3.0	78.3	-1
24	6	Ohio St.	Big Ten	18-6	7-4	35	7	2.5	78.3	+1
25	7	SMU	American	18-5	10-2	22	32	4.5	76.3
26	7	Indiana	Big Ten	17-7	7-4	32	38	7.5	75.8
27	7	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	15-7	6-5	24	24	6.5	75.3
28	7	Georgetown	Big East	15-8	7-5	21	25	5.0	75.2	-1
29	8	Iowa	Big Ten	15-8	6-4	38	27	5.5	68.3	+1

Big East teams Providence, Georgetown drop: Joining Butler in falling a seed were Providence (lost to Xavier 78-69) and Georgetown (fell 69-53 at Villanova). The Hoyas have now lost 3 of their last 4, with two of the losses coming at home. The only other moves since before the weekend were West Virginia (thrashed by Baylor) and Ohio State, who slipped in as the last 6-seed. Surprisingly, Oklahoma State didn't budge after upsetting Kansas. One reason was that Kansas State fell out of the RPI top 100, which gives the Cowboys a bad loss and removes a top 100 win; that muted their bounce from the Kansas upset; plus, the teams directly above them all won their games this weekend.

The SEC - Bulldogs, Aggies, and Rebels in an 8-seed scrum: Georgia, Texas A&M, and Mississippi all won minor games over the weekend and are locked in a battle at the 8- and 9-seed lines. The Bulldogs and Aggies are essentially tied according to the Dance Chance; A&M has better records and Wins Composite, but Georgia's RPI and Strength are better. Ole Miss is just an inch behind the two and remains a 9-seed for now. Other than the Rebels, the 9-seeds are composed of previous 10-seeds Xavier, Stanford, and Cincinnati.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
30	8	Texas	Big 12	15-8	4-6	31	18	3.0	65.5
31	8	Georgia	SEC	15-7	6-4	23	36	-1.5	65.4
32	8	Texas A&M	SEC	16-6	7-3	33	48	0.0	65.4	+1
33	9	Mississippi	SEC	16-7	7-3	39	39	-0.5	63.5
34	9	Xavier	Big East	15-9	6-6	34	21	1.0	62.9	+1
35	9	Stanford	Pac-12	16-7	7-4	44	35	0.5	62.2	+1
36	9	Cincinnati	American	17-6	8-3	28	55	2.0	59.8	+1
37	10	Colorado St.	Mtn West	19-4	7-4	27	59	-0.5	59.0	+1
38	10	San Diego St.	Mtn West	17-6	8-3	30	47	0.0	58.6	-2
39	10	Dayton	Atlantic 10	17-5	7-3	36	46	1.5	57.8	-1
40	10	Illinois	Big Ten	16-8	6-5	48	30	-0.5	56.9	+1
41	11	Michigan St.	Big Ten	15-8	6-4	52	22	-1.0	56.5	-3

The Mountain West battle is heating up after San Diego State's loss to Boise State, and as the Aztecs drop two seed lines, Colorado State is again the highest projected team. The Rams move up a line to a 10-seed after edging UNLV 83-82 at home, but SDSU holds a head-to-head win and is still the favorite in the conference tournament.

Dayton's loss to George Washington drops the Flyers to a 10-seed, while Illinois' win at Michigan State puts them ahead of the Spartans—they jump one seed to a 10, while Michigan State drops a big three seeds to an 11. Illinois is undoubtedly playing great basketball while shorthanded, but will it catch up to them down the stretch?

The Bubble: American, Atlantic 10 teams on the margin. Tulsa suffered their first conference loss (to SMU) and despite being 10-1 in the American their NCAA bid is no lock, to say the least. Even more precarious is Temple, but the Owls join the Play-in teams this week after a 5-game winning streak. Also joining is Miami; the Hurricanes are back in, for now, as they broke a 3-game losing streak Sunday vs. Clemson. And while Oregon isn't in too many Bracketologists' seedings, we have the Ducks up to an 11-seed now. They're 7-4 in the Pac-12, 16-7 overall, and +1.0 in Wins Composite. On the downside, their RPI and Strength are underwater.

42	11	LSU	SEC	17-6	6-4	50	61	1.0	55.7
43	11	Tulsa	American	17-5	10-1	45	79	1.5	53.0	-1
44	11	Oregon	Pac-12	16-7	7-4	58	63	1.0	50.8	+1
45	11	Miami FL	ACC	15-8	5-5	55	43	0.0	49.3	+
46	12	St. John's	Big East	14-8	4-6	51	50	3.0	49.0
47	12	Temple	American	17-7	8-3	37	84	0.5	47.1	+
48		George Washington	Atlantic 10	17-6	7-3	49	60	0.0	46.7
49		UCLA	Pac-12	14-10	6-5	46	58	-0.5	46.7	-
50		Rhode Island	Atlantic 10	15-5	8-2	56	62	0.5	45.4
51		Seton Hall	Big East	15-8	5-6	54	51	-2.0	44.4	-
52		Boise St.	Mtn West	15-6	7-3	40	57	-4.0	43.8
53		Purdue	Big Ten	15-9	7-4	71	37	-3.5	42.2
54		North Carolina St.	ACC	14-10	5-6	61	40	-1.0	41.3
55		Syracuse*	ACC	15-8	6-4	70	54	-4.0	38.7
56	12	Old Dominion	C-USA	18-4	7-3	41	71	0.0	38.2
57		Oregon State	Pac-12	15-7	6-4	68	81	-2.5	37.9

UCLA's stay in the seedings was short-lived as the Bruins lost at Cal and drop out, but they're still in the First Four Out along with Seton Hall, who fell to Marquette on Saturday and are now slightly underwater in every measure. Also queueing up in the First Four Out are Atlantic Ten teams George Washington and Rhode Island. The Colonials upset Dayton in overtime on Friday and are out first team out, while the Rams have won five in a row.

Boise State heads the Second Four Out; the Broncos beat San Diego State badly and have now won seven in a row, including a win over Colorado State. They have a decent shot at becoming the 3rd Mountain West team in the Big Dance this year. Another hot team, Purdue, had their momentum tripped up at Minnesota where they lost 62-58. North Carolina State lost their fourth game in five tries and this one, to Wake Forest, was the worst. The Wolfpack still have time to right the ship unlike Syracuse, who has self-banned during an investigation. The Orange lost to Pitt Saturday.

That makes the actual 8th team out Oregon State, after the Beavers swept the Washington teams this week. That's assuming Old Dominion gets the auto-bid for Conference USA, though if they don't, they still have some work to do to make it. The RPI is there but the big wins aren't—at least, not enough to offset some of their bad conference losses—and the C-USA offers only risk rather than reward from this point on. The Monarchs' presence here highlights how few non-Major conference teams are set for at-large bids this year, and they're probably in an awkward spot: only if they win their tournament will they have a strong enough résumé to qualify for an at-large bid that they wouldn't need.

Feb. 1: Top seeds remain the same despite losses by Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, UNC

It was a wild week; 3-seed Notre Dame beat 2-seed Duke, who beat 1-seed Virginia. But when the dust settled, the top 2 seeds remained exactly the same as last week in the Dance Chance.

On top of course through all of it is Kentucky at 21-0, adding wins over Missouri and Alabama to their total. Virginia suffered their first loss to the Blue Devils on the road, not enough to knock them from the #2 spot on the S-curve, but they did fall to #4 in Strength as their earlier win over Virginia Tech (50-47) wasn't too impressive either. Kansas and Arizona again filled out the top seeds. Both are probably going to have to win their conference tournaments to take #1 seeds; currently the Jayhawks are #2 in Strength in the Big Twelve to Oklahoma, while the Wildcats move ahead of Utah in the Pac-12.

Duke was the key team to watch last week as they fell to Notre Dame 77-73 on the road, then rallied late to beat Virginia 69-63 at home. Those cancelled out and left the Blue Devils exactly where we had them last week—the top #2 seed. We think there are too many good teams out there for the ACC to get 2 #1 seeds at this point. The other 2-seeds remained as well: Wisconsin is now #2 in Strength and beat Iowa on the road; Villanova knocked off two lower-rung Big East teams and like the Badgers are an excellent 19-2. North Carolina blew an 18-point lead and lost in overtime to Louisville, but due to losses by 3-seeds held on to a #2 slot even at 17-5.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
1	1	Kentucky	SEC	21-0	8-0	2	1	16.0	99.9
2	1	Virginia	ACC	19-1	7-1	3	4	12.5	99.9
3	1	Kansas	Big 12	18-3	7-1	1	14	16.0	99.9
4	1	Arizona	Pac-12	20-2	8-1	4	6	9.5	99.9
5	2	Duke	ACC	18-3	5-3	5	5	15.0	99.9
6	2	Wisconsin	Big Ten	19-2	7-1	8	2	8.5	99.9
7	2	Villanova	Big East	19-2	6-2	6	10	10.0	99.9
8	2	North Carolina	ACC	17-5	7-2	10	8	9.0	98.0
9	3	Gonzaga	West Coast	21-1	10-0	7	3	7.5	97.4
10	3	Notre Dame	ACC	20-3	8-2	28	13	8.5	97.1
11	3	Louisville	ACC	18-3	6-2	14	11	7.0	95.4	+1
12	3	Iowa St.	Big 12	16-4	6-2	13	16	7.5	90.9	+2

Gonzaga moved back to the top of the 3-seed list, adding another WCC win and a non-conference win over Memphis. The problem for the 'Zags is their schedule, which is getting diluted every week and with BYU and St. Mary's out of the RPI top 50 there aren't opportunities to increase their stock to a convincing 1-seed level. Notre Dame's week started great with the Duke win but the Pitt loss killed their momentum. Finally with Louisville (up one seed) and Iowa State (up two after beating Texas and TCU) we see some movement.

Utah's loss to UCLA knocked the Utes to a 4-seed and, as we mentioned, dropped them from the Pac-12 tourney favorite. Maryland fell another seed after another loss (at Ohio State); the Terps' relatively low Strength rating foretold their eventual fall from top-seed level. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have a great Strength rank (#7) and are starting to live up to it, rising to a 5-seed. Oklahoma also ranks well in Strength, even higher than Kansas; the Sooners beat Oklahoma State and rises 2 seeds to a 5. VCU went the other direction after falling to Richmond, which broke a 12-game winning streak for the Rams.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
13	4	Butler	Big East	16-6	6-3	15	17	9.5	89.8
14	4	Utah	Pac-12	16-4	7-2	11	9	3.0	89.3	-1
15	4	West Virginia	Big 12	18-3	6-2	20	15	4.0	88.9
16	4	Maryland	Big Ten	18-4	6-3	17	29	7.0	88.4	-1
17	5	VCU	Atlantic 10	17-4	7-1	9	24	6.0	82.2	-1
18	5	Georgetown	Big East	15-6	7-3	19	23	5.0	81.3
19	5	Oklahoma	Big 12	14-7	5-4	21	12	8.5	80.8	+2
20	5	Ohio St.	Big Ten	17-5	6-3	33	7	2.5	79.6	+1
21	6	Baylor	Big 12	15-5	4-4	16	18	4.5	78.7
22	6	Wichita St.	MVC	18-3	9-1	12	22	3.0	77.0	-1
23	6	Arkansas	SEC	16-5	5-3	24	35	4.0	75.6
24	6	SMU	American	17-4	9-1	22	31	3.0	74.9	+1
25	7	Northern Iowa	MVC	20-2	9-1	18	41	3.0	74.8	+1

Outside of the ACC, the week's biggest game was probably the first Wichita State vs. Northern Iowa pairing. With Round One played at UNI, the Panthers took advantage en route to a 70-54 triumph, moving them up a seed. Last week the Shockers and Panthers were 5- and 8-seeds, now they're 6- and 7-seeds and the rematch in Wichita (and a probable meeting in the Missouri Valley tournament) will determine who takes a higher seed into late March.

The 7- through 9-seeds was where big changes took place; every team in this range changed position in the Dance Chance. Providence fell to St. John's and Indiana lost big to Purdue (83-67); both dropped to 7-seeds. Xavier bucked the trend and rose 2 seeds despite a Saturday loss to Seton Hall. Prior to that the Musketeers beat Georgetown on the road; their RPI rose from 32 to 21 and their Wins composite went from negative to +2.5. Getting big road wins outweighs taking a road loss to a good team.

Stanford and Texas both drop from a 7 to an 8; in addition to the Iowa State loss, the Longhorns fell to Baylor and have dropped 3 in a row (and 5 of 7). The Cardinal beat Washington earlier in the week. Texas A&M and Michigan State were winners last week and move up. The Aggies are on a 6-game win streak, while the Spartans topped rival Michigan in overtime.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
26	7	Providence	Big East	16-6	6-3	23	47	4.5	74.4	-2
27	7	Indiana	Big Ten	16-6	6-3	35	39	6.0	73.2	-1
28	7	Xavier	Big East	14-8	5-5	26	21	2.5	68.2	+2
29	8	Stanford	Pac-12	15-6	6-3	31	30	-1.0	67.4	-1
30	8	Texas A&M	SEC	15-5	6-2	32	51	0.0	65.5	+1
31	8	Michigan St.	Big Ten	15-7	6-3	37	20	-2.0	65.3	+2
32	8	Texas	Big 12	14-7	3-5	30	19	2.0	65.0	-1
33	9	Georgia	SEC	14-6	5-3	27	40	-1.0	63.8	-1
34	9	San Diego St.	Mtn West	16-5	7-2	25	37	0.0	63.0	+1
35	9	Seton Hall	Big East	15-6	5-4	36	44	1.5	62.7	+2
36	9	LSU	SEC	16-5	5-3	40	59	2.0	62.1	-1
37	10	Colorado St.	Mtn West	18-3	6-3	29	53	1.5	62.1	-1

Georgia and LSU are both 5-3 in the SEC and each drops a seed after suffering losses to South Carolina and Mississipp State respectively. Seton Hall rises two seeds after their Xavier win. And the Mountain West race is almost as close as the Missouri Valley race, and this week the principal teams switch places as San Diego State rises to a 9- and Colorado State, who lost to Boise State, fall to a 10.

Top of the Bubble: Tulsa, Ole Miss, even Florida in?

Dayton lost to UMass and drops to a 10-seed, while Iowa somehow moves up despite losing to Wisconsin. Tulsa and Mississippi debut in the brackets; the Rebels have won three straight while the Golden Hurricane are on an 11-game streak. St. John's barely escapes the Play-in area after beating Providence (despite an earlier loss to Creighton). Fall into the Play-in purgatory are near-Major conference teams Cincinnati (lost to East Carolina) and Davidson (lost to St. Joe's).

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
38	10	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	13-7	4-5	42	27	3.5	60.2
39	10	Dayton	Atlantic 10	17-4	7-2	38	50	0.5	58.3	-1
40	10	Iowa	Big Ten	13-8	4-4	52	36	3.5	54.6	+1
41	11	Tulsa	American	16-4	9-0	43	76	0.5	54.2	+
42	11	Mississippi	SEC	14-7	5-3	47	43	-2.0	53.7	+
43	11	St. John's	Big East	13-7	3-5	48	49	3.5	52.0	+1
44	11	Cincinnati	American	15-6	6-3	34	55	1.0	51.9	-1
45	11	North Carolina St.	ACC	14-9	5-5	50	38	0.5	51.6
46	12	Davidson	Atlantic 10	13-5	5-3	46	33	-0.5	47.9	-1
47	12	Florida	SEC	12-9	5-3	57	28	-3.0	47.3	+
48		Miami FL	ACC	14-7	4-4	56	46	-2.0	47.3	-
49		Illinois	Big Ten	14-8	4-5	65	32	-1.0	45.4
50		George Washington	Atlantic 10	16-6	6-3	53	58	0.0	44.2	-

The last Play-in spot goes to....Florida? The Gators are just 12-9, with a poor -3.0 Wins comp, but wins over Alabama and Arkansas have bumped their RPI from last week's 84 to 57 and they are 5-3 in the SEC. They might be starting to live up to their #28 Strength, which suggests they'll be a solid tournament team come March. The Gators just barely edge Miami for the last spot as the Hurricanes fell to Georgia Tech and Florida State. Miami beat Florida early in the year and if they were this close, the last spot would go to the Canes. Illinois is another team trying to live up to their potential, but struggling to stay above water in Big Ten play. George Washington fell out this week after losing to VCU and Rhode Island.

Bottom of the Bubble: UCLA makes progress, Washington falters

UCLA's big win over Utah might have salvaged the Bruins' season, and they're now the 6th team out. With borderline numbers and a 60 strength rating they're still likely to fall just short, but that's a lot better than it looked last week. Purdue also surged, beating Indiana and Northwestern, but they have to overcome bad home losses to North Florida and Gardner-Webb that are holding down their Wins composite. Temple also improved their odds, but at #91 Strength can they win enough games down the home stretch?

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
51		Tennessee	SEC	13-7	5-3	54	86	0.5	43.2
52		Syracuse	ACC	14-7	5-3	68	48	-4.0	42.6
53		UCLA	Pac-12	13-9	5-4	64	60	0.0	40.7
54		Alabama	SEC	12-8	3-5	59	54	-1.0	39.5
55	12	Old Dominion	C-USA	17-4	6-3	39	66	0.0	38.5
56		Purdue	Big Ten	14-8	6-3	79	45	-4.5	38.1
57		Oregon	Pac-12	14-7	5-4	70	69	-2.5	37.6
58		Temple	American	15-7	6-3	44	91	-1.5	36.3
59		Rhode Island	Atlantic 10	14-5	7-2	69	70	-2.0	35.3
60		BYU	West Coast	15-7	7-4	62	26	-4.0	34.8
61		Boise St.	Mtn West	13-6	5-3	49	63	-5.0	34.1
62		Saint Mary's	West Coast	16-5	9-2	67	65	-4.0	33.0
63		Michigan	Big Ten	12-9	6-4	74	68	-4.5	30.4
64		Washington	Pac-12	14-7	3-6	77	72	-2.5	29.4	-

Western teams losing steam include St. Mary's and Washington. The Gaels fell to Pepperdine and their RPI fell from #49 to 67, which hurts them of course but also hurts BYU and Gonzaga who need something to hang their hat on in conference play. BYU's 62 RPI doesn't help matters.

Washington fared even worse, losing to Stanford and Cal and dropping from 48 to 77 in RPI, which dumped them well out of our brackets. While their 14-7 overall record is still decent, they're in a 3-6 hole in the Pac-12 and don't look good enough to dig themselves out. Of course, that was where UCLA stood just last week, so maybe their tough remaining schedule is an opportunity.