SportsRatings: College Basketball

Notre Dame: Great record, solid wins, terrible RPI

Notre Dame just beat Duke, 77-73, putting them at 20-2 for the year and a fantastic 8-1 in the ACC. Does that sound like a team that should be ranked #27? According to the RPI, that's where they stand (computed without the rest of today's games).

That's up from #36 before the win—when they were just 19-2 and 7-1 in conference.

It's not like the Irish didn't beat anyone before they topped the Blue Devils. Duke is their 5th top 50 RPI victim, and 2nd top 25 RPI win:

Notre Dame Wins:
RPI  Team
42   Michigan State
11  @North Carolina
37   Miami FL
47  @NC State
 7   Duke

Notre Dame Losses:
RPI  Team
 3   Virginia
20  =Providence

So how come no love from the Ratings Percentage Index? Well, the problems with the RPI have been chronicled for decades, and it boils down to: the RPI doesn't know who you beat and who you lost to.

That's why there's so much attention paid to "Top 50 wins" and "Top 25 wins" etc. The raw RPI doesn't include any of that in the calculation. Sure, you get more points for beating Duke, but most of that (2/3) is just for playing Duke, since 2/3 of the RPI is schedule strength.

Schedule strength is why Notre Dame's RPI is so poor, specifically, their weak non-conference slate. Side note: no one should complain about a team's SOS if their RPI is adequate, since SOS is such a huge part of the RPI. Home/road is factored in, too, but again, not against specific teams, so it's valid to complain that a team has no good road wins, etc. even if their RPI is good.

Anyway, Notre Dame's quality certainly wasn't captured by the RPI in the pre-conference season, and that's the fault of the Irish who scheduled a bunch of cupcakes. But at this point in the year, with the lineup of teams they've defeated, any good ranking system should understand that they're a great team.

Now, it's true that the RPI doesn't use victory margin—by design—so it's a bit unfair to compare the RPI to Ken Pomeroy's ratings, or Jeff Sagarin's Predictor, or our Strength ratings (the Irish were #12 in all three yesterday), but any decent system that doesn't use victory margin should have had the Irish in the top 25. Even before the Duke game our Success ratings put them at #14, and post-Duke they will be around #8.

Since the RPI is so important for seeding in the NCAA tournament, the Bracket Matrix only had the Irish the low 4-seed at 19-2, while our Dance Chance put them at the high 3-seed. Most Bracketologists take into account a team's quality wins since they know the RPI doesn't do it, and therefore the Committee has to do it, too. And the Irish also pass the "eye test" and rank high in MOV power ratings as mentioned above. And their 2 losses? Both are to RPI top 25 teams. Ironically the RPI doesn't see that, either—just that they have two losses. They might as well have been to Fairleigh Dickinson and Binghamton, and not that much would change according to the RPI. In other words, we've all learned to compensate for the RPI's shortcomings, but it still can drag a good team down.

As seen above also, most of Notre Dame's good wins have come at home; they'll undoubtedly take some losses in the 2nd half of the ACC season, and that will push their RPI lower, but at the same time their SOS will get better, too. Maybe they'll end up about where they deserve to be in the end, but the RPI's poor formula has hurt teams before who deserved better—and helped some be seeded much higher than they merited.

When a team schedules cupcakes, garners a dozen easy wins, and later on loses to the tougher teams, then they deserve their resultant low RPI.

But if the same team wins the big games, their easy non-conference schedule is pretty much moot, and in that case the RPI can't see the forest for the trees.

1/26 NCAA Projections: Kansas, Arizona in as 1-seeds, Villanova, Maryland out

Kentucky and Virginia are both 19-0 and seem clearly destined for 1-seeds; beyond that there are about a dozen teams vying for the last two spots, and almost none of them lost a game last week. Unfortunately for Villanova and Maryland, there was no room for error, and they drop from 1-seeds in the latest Dance Chance NCAA projections, while Kansas and Arizona move into the top rung.

As noted, Kentucky and Virginia remained undefeated, but Virginia's path was interesting: The Cavaliers crushed Georgia Tech 57-28 but barely edged Virginia Tech 50-47. The Kansas Jayhawks ride big wins over Oklahoma and Texas—the latter on the road—to a 1-seed projection. They're now #1 in the RPI and have a Wins Composite that rivals the two top teams. Arizona beat Cal and Stanford to sneak into the final #1 spot.

Duke and Wisconsin both made a push for the last 1-seed, with the Blue Devils topping Pitt and St. John's to give Coach K 1,000 years (did you hear about that? It was hardly mentioned...) while the Badgers crushed Iowa 82-50 and outlasted Michigan in overtime. Note that Duke holds a win over Wisconsin (in Madison) so if the last 1-seed comes down to these two teams, Duke has the edge. Meanwhile Villanova lost to Georgetown, which isn't a terrible thing except they lost by 20 points; with everyone else winning, the Wildcats drop a seed. Maryland fared even worse, losing at Indiana by 19 and barely beating Northwestern on Sunday; the Terps fall to a 3-seed, which given their fairly low Strength (#27) is a more realistic outcome that last week's 1-seed.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
1	1	Kentucky	SEC	19-0	6-0	2	1	16.5	99.9
2	1	Virginia	ACC	19-0	7-0	3	3	13.5	99.9
3	1	Kansas	Big 12	16-3	5-1	1	13	14.0	99.9	+1
4	1	Arizona	Pac-12	18-2	6-1	5	9	8.0	99.9	+1
5	2	Duke	ACC	17-2	4-2	7	5	11.5	99.9
6	2	Wisconsin	Big Ten	18-2	6-1	9	4	6.5	99.9
7	2	Villanova	Big East	18-2	5-2	6	11	7.5	98.6	-1
8	2	North Carolina	ACC	16-4	6-1	11	7	8.5	96.4	+1
9	3	Notre Dame	ACC	19-2	7-1	36	12	8.0	93.4
10	3	Maryland	Big Ten	18-3	6-2	14	27	7.5	92.9	-2
11	3	Gonzaga	West Coast	19-1	9-0	8	2	7.0	92.0
12	3	Utah	Pac-12	15-3	5-1	10	6	4.5	89.8

On the 2-3 border North Carolina edges ACC teammate Notre Dame for the last 2-seed. The Irish have rather quietly amassed a great record (19-2) but their non-conference schedule was very weak, resulting in a sad RPI of 36. Still, their Wins Comp is almost equal to UNC's. Utah holds on to their 3-seed and still ranks ahead of Arizona in Strength. Gonzaga improved their Dance Chance with two wins, including one over St. Mary's, but all they could do is hold their 3-seed as all the major conference teams loaded up with more wins. The Zags' RPI actually dropped even as they rose to #2 in Strength. Their Wins Comp took a hit, too, as BYU and St. John's fell from the RPI Top 50, reducting the value of those two key road wins. Most people consider them a 1-seed, but if the teams above them here don't start losing they will probably end up a 2-seed unless they win out.

The Big East is on the rise, as Butler holds their 4-seed, Georgetown rides their win over Villanova to a 5-seed, and Providence is up to a 6-seed after beating Xavier in overtime. Meanwhile Louisville moves back up to a 4-seed and VCU holds their 4-seed, and #4 RPI rating, with two wins over lowly teams (Duquesne and St. Louis). Wichita State had similar results against similar competition, beating Missouri State and Drake. It's these kind of games which prevent the non-Major conference teams from advancing with their victories.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
13	4	Louisville	ACC	16-3	4-2	19	10	5.0	86.0	+1
14	4	Butler	Big East	15-6	5-3	15	18	8.0	85.3
15	4	VCU	Atlantic 10	16-3	6-0	4	23	7.0	84.3
16	4	West Virginia	Big 12	16-3	4-2	17	14	3.0	83.5
17	5	Georgetown	Big East	14-5	6-2	13	24	5.5	83.0	+2
18	5	Iowa St.	Big 12	14-4	4-2	21	19	7.0	81.3	-1
19	5	Providence	Big East	15-5	5-2	20	43	6.0	77.5	+1
20	5	Wichita St.	MVC	17-2	8-0	12	17	3.0	77.2
21	6	Arkansas	SEC	15-4	4-2	23	38	6.0	77.1	+1
22	6	Indiana	Big Ten	15-5	5-2	34	35	7.5	76.0	+1
23	6	Baylor	Big 12	14-4	3-3	16	20	2.5	75.2
24	6	Ohio St.	Big Ten	16-5	5-3	41	8	0.5	71.9	+3
25	7	Texas	Big 12	14-5	3-3	26	16	2.0	71.6	-2
26	7	Oklahoma	Big 12	12-7	3-4	29	15	7.0	70.3	-2
27	7	SMU	American	15-4	7-1	18	30	1.5	69.4	+2
28	7	Stanford	Pac-12	14-5	5-2	31	34	1.0	68.5	-1

The Big Twelve has a clutch of teams in the 4-7 range: West Virginia remains a 4, while Iowa State's bad loss to Texas Tech drops them to a 5. Baylor played Huston-Tillitson for some reason, but also topped Oklahoma. The Sooners lost twice last week while Texas split with TCU and Kansas, but both fell from 5-seeds to 7-seeds. These teams are ranked 14, 15, 16, 19, and 20 in Strength, and with Kansas at #13 the Big Twelve is set for a wild finish.

The Big Ten fared well here, with Indiana up a notch to a 6 after beating Maryland, but the Hoosiers lost to Ohio State; the Buckeyes rebound 3 seeds up to a 6 with the win. SMU is up 2 seeds as their #18 RPI starts to carry more weight, and Stanford's split with Arizona and ASU drops them to the bottom 7-seed.

The 8-seeds are rolling: SEC teams Georgia and LSU rise 1 and 3 lines respectively; the Bulldogs beat both Mississippi teams and LSU beat Florida and Vanderbilt both on the road. Miami also rocketed up 3 after two solid wins over ACC bubble teams NC State and Syracuse. And Northern Iowa is now 18-2, their losses to VCU in double overtime and Evansville by 3. The Panthers jump from a 10-seed to an 8-seed and take on Wichita State at home next Saturday.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
29	8	Georgia	SEC	13-5	4-2	25	39	1.0	66.5	+1
30	8	LSU	SEC	15-4	4-2	37	59	4.5	66.0	+3
31	8	Miami FL	ACC	14-5	4-2	38	32	1.5	65.9	+3
32	8	Northern Iowa	MVC	18-2	7-1	22	45	0.5	64.1	+2
33	9	Dayton	Atlantic 10	16-3	6-1	28	50	2.0	63.4	-1
34	9	Xavier	Big East	13-7	4-4	35	22	-0.5	61.1
35	9	Colorado St.	Mtn West	17-2	5-2	30	53	1.0	60.9	+1
36	9	Texas A&M	SEC	13-5	4-2	32	57	1.0	60.2	+2
37	10	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	12-6	3-4	33	31	1.0	59.6	-2
38	10	Cincinnati	American	14-5	5-2	27	49	4.0	58.8	+2
39	10	San Diego St.	Mtn West	14-5	5-2	24	40	1.0	58.5
40	10	Michigan St.	Big Ten	13-7	4-3	43	21	-2.0	58.0	-2
41	11	Iowa	Big Ten	13-7	4-3	52	37	4.0	57.9	-4
42	11	North Carolina St.	ACC	13-8	4-4	45	29	1.0	56.5	-3
43	11	Davidson	Atlantic 10	13-4	5-2	39	28	1.0	55.7	+

In the Atlantic 10, Dayton's loss to Davidson drops the Flyers to a 9-seed while the Wildcats move in at an 11-seed, just above the Play-in line. The Mountain West took an interesting turn as Colorado State beat San Diego State and the Rams jumped the Aztecs to take a 9-seed. The teams have very even resumes and the rematch will probably determine who ends up ahead—along with the conference tournament, which we expect SDSU to win by a nose.

The last 9-seed belongs to Texas A&M who is now 4-2 in the SEC and has a healthy RPI to go with it. Cincinnati also moves up two rungs to a 10-seed while Oklahoma State lost to Kansas State and has a tough road ahead in the Big Twelve, where they are just 3-4. Meanwhile Michigan State and Iowa had bad weeks, both falling to 13-7 and 4-3 in conference; the Spartans lost to Nebraska and Iowa lost twice, to Wisconsin and Purdue. They fell 2 and 4 seeds respectively. NC State was another loser, dropping 3 rungs after losses to Miami and Notre Dame.

The "biggest loser" however was Seton Hall, who dropped an amazing 5 seeds from a 6-seed to an 11-seed. The Pirates lost to DePaul—at home—and to Butler by 20 points, but held on to make the Play-in foursome. Big East conference-mate St. John's dropped two rungs from a 10- to a 12-seed after losing to Duke, which seems harsh but they were the last 10-seed and are now the top 12-seed, and almost all of the fall was due to their RPI going from 40 to 51. Washington holds their Play-in 11-seed while George Washington is our Last Team In.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
44	11	Seton Hall	Big East	13-6	3-4	42	51	0.0	52.5	-5
45	11	Washington	Pac-12	14-5	3-3	48	62	0.5	52.3
46	12	St. John's	Big East	12-6	2-4	51	46	3.5	52.0	-2
47	12	George Washington	Atlantic 10	16-4	6-1	53	52	0.5	51.6
48		Mississippi	SEC	12-7	3-3	46	44	-1.5	49.8
49		Alabama	SEC	12-6	3-3	50	56	0.0	48.7
50		Tulsa	American	14-4	7-0	47	71	-1.0	47.7
51		Illinois	Big Ten	13-8	3-5	58	33	-0.5	46.7
52		Syracuse	ACC	14-6	5-2	68	48	-4.5	45.2	-
53		Tennessee	SEC	12-6	4-2	55	86	1.0	44.0
54		Saint Mary's	West Coast	15-4	8-1	49	61	-2.0	43.3
55		Oregon St.	Pac-12	13-5	5-2	72	82	-3.0	38.7
56		Oregon	Pac-12	13-6	4-3	78	63	-1.5	38.5
57		Wyoming	Mtn West	15-3	6-1	70	101	2.0	37.0
58		Kansas St.	Big 12	12-8	5-2	79	77	0.5	35.5
59		Rhode Island	Atlantic 10	12-5	5-2	64	64	-2.5	33.8
60		Minnesota	Big Ten	12-8	2-6	87	25	-2.0	32.9
61		Florida	SEC	10-9	3-3	84	36	-3.0	32.2
62	12	Old Dominion	C-USA	15-4	4-3	40	66	-1.5	31.7

First four out: Mississippi and Alabama are again our first two teams out, just like last week, though they've switched places. Both split games last week, with Ole Miss losing to Georgia and beating Florida, while the Tide fell to Arkansas and beat Auburn. Tulsa continues to move toward the pack; their 7-0 American record helps but their RPI is borderline at #47 and their Strength (#71) and Wins Comp (-1.0) are still underwater. Illinois is just 13-8 and 3-5 in conference, but their solid Strength (#33) helps them and bodes well for a bid, if their injury problems (a student manager recently suited up) don't doom them.

Next four out: Syracuse was dumped from the brackets for losing to Miami, while Tennessee also split their games last week. St. Mary's lost to Gonzaga and beat Portland and naturally their RPI went from 62 to 49 (hey we didn't make up the algorithm), improving their Dance Chance from 41% to 43%. Oregon State and Oregon are neck-and-neck for the last spot in the Second Four Out, and both teams beat USC and UCLA last week. The tiny edge goes to the Beavers despite Oregon's advantage in Strength and Wins Comp, and the Ducks' head-to-head win. Neither has a very good RPI.

Further down, both Minnesota and Florida are good teams who have had bad luck lately, standing 12-8 and 10-9, and just 2-6 and 3-3 in conference. Their Strength rankings of #25 and #36 suggest they could get themselves back in the running but with each loss it gets harder. The Gophers have won two of three after dropping five straight, while the Gators have lost three in a row.

Finally, we note Old Dominion, a team that we've had at a 12-seed—past the bracket boundaries—for a while now. The Monarchs lost two games last week, dropping them to 15-4 and just 4-3 in the C-USA, hardly the resume of an at-large bid candidate. Their RPI is still solid at #40, but their #66 Strength doesn't bode well for their chances should they fail to win the conference. They fell to Middle Tennessee and UAB, bad losses that turned their Wins Composite negative.

1/19 Dance Chance: Do Terps have a shot at top seed?

Here is the latest Dance Chance (click to see full breakdown) which contains a number of surprises, the least of which is Maryland working their way to a top seed.

There's a pretty broad consensus regarding the other three top seeds. Kentucky is back as the top overall seed after crushing Missouri 86-37 and Alabama 70-48; Virginia remained undefeated with two easy ACC wins; and Villanova boosted their record to 17-1. All three are near-locks for the tournament at 99.9% on the Dance Chance.

The last number one seed, per most bracketologists, is up for grabs after Duke's loss to Miami last week dropped them to a 2. But our formula is pretty much alone in giving it to Maryland; the Terps beat Michigan State on Saturday to put them at 17-2 and at 5-1, in the Big Ten lead. Their Wins Composite is strong, and their RPI is good, but their Strength ranking of #23 suggests it will be hard to end up a top seed—particularly with Wisconsin close behind at a 2-seed and favored to win the conference tournament.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
1	1	Kentucky	SEC	17-0	4-0	1	1	15.5	99.9
2	1	Virginia	ACC	17-0	5-0	2	2	13.0	99.9
3	1	Villanova	Big East	17-1	4-1	5	9	10.0	99.9
4	1	Maryland	Big Ten	17-2	5-1	13	23	8.5	95.3	+1
5	2	Arizona	Pac-12	16-2	4-1	6	10	6.0	94.5	+1
6	2	Wisconsin	Big Ten	16-2	4-1	9	5	5.5	94.1
7	2	Duke	ACC	15-2	3-2	8	4	8.5	93.6	-1
8	2	Kansas	Big 12	14-3	3-1	3	17	10.0	92.6
9	3	Gonzaga	West Coast	17-1	7-0	7	3	8.0	88.2
10	3	North Carolina	ACC	14-4	4-1	12	6	5.5	88.1
11	3	Notre Dame	ACC	17-2	5-1	38	15	6.5	86.4	+1
12	3	Utah	Pac-12	13-3	4-1	11	8	5.0	86.0	-1

Utah might have claimed a top seed had they not run into Arizona on Saturday. The Wildcats dominated the Utes 69-51, which knocked Utah to the low 3-seed and elevated Arizona to the top 2-seed. Kansas is the final 2-seed despite their loss to Iowa State; they remain #3 in the RPI and beat OK State earlier in the week.

Gonzaga continues to win and move up, and the Zags have now reached the top 3-seed. Many people have them a 1-seed already, but as a member of the weak West Coast conference that may be a bit premature. Any slipup by the Bulldogs will hurt them a lot, and with the WCC a possible 1-bid league there aren't many more chances to improve their résumé. In other words, they're priced to perfection as a 1-seed, but if they keep winning they'll probably get there in the Dance Chance. Formula systems have trouble dealing with teams like Gonzaga; last year Wichita State was a 1-seed in the Dance Chance, but Gonzaga in 2013 finished a 2-seed. Rounding out the three-seeds are ACC members North Carolina and Notre Dame, as the 17-2 Irish jump a notch.

In the 4-6 seeds, there's a lot of Big Twelve. 4-seed Iowa State can't move up despite the Kansas win since they lost to 6-seed Baylor three nights earlier. Before that, they beat 4-seed West Virginia, who split with 5-seeds Oklahoma (win) and Texas (loss) last week. The Longhorns moved up 2 lines to a 5-seed with the win, while the Sooners moved up a line as well after beating Oklahoma State on Saturday.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
13	4	Iowa St.	Big 12	13-3	3-1	15	16	7.5	84.6
14	4	West Virginia	Big 12	15-3	3-2	16	13	4.5	84.1
15	4	Butler	Big East	13-6	3-3	14	20	8.0	80.4	+1
16	4	VCU	Atlantic 10	15-3	5-0	4	22	5.0	80.4	+1
17	5	Louisville	ACC	15-3	3-2	29	11	4.0	79.8	-1
18	5	Oklahoma	Big 12	12-5	3-2	24	12	8.0	79.1	+1
19	5	Texas	Big 12	13-4	2-2	22	14	3.5	75.5	+2
20	5	Wichita St.	MVC	15-2	6-0	10	21	4.5	73.7	+1
21	6	Baylor	Big 12	13-4	2-3	18	18	2.0	72.9
22	6	Seton Hall	Big East	13-4	3-2	17	41	3.5	72.2	-1
23	6	Providence	Big East	14-5	4-2	23	44	3.5	71.9	-1
24	6	Stanford	Pac-12	13-4	4-1	26	38	2.5	71.5	+2

There's also a lot of Big East, with Butler leading the way, up a seed despite splitting with Seton Hall and Georgetown. Seton Hall dropped the overtime game with the Bulldogs and are down to a 6-seed, and Providence too falls as they lost to St. John's.

This region also contains two non-Major conference leaders, VCU and Wichita State; both are up a notch at 15-3 and 15-2 respectively, and undefeated in the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley. Both are top 10 in RPI and good enough in Strength to foresee that they could avoid upsets and rise even higher. Meanwhile Louisville drops to their lowest forecasted seed of the year at 5 after their home loss to Duke, and Stanford is up two rungs to a 6-seed after beating Cal and UConn last week.

What a difference a week makes: last week Arkansas was a 3-seed in the Dance Chance and Iowa was holding on as a 10-seed—now they're neck-and-neck for the top 7-seed. The Razorbacks plummeted with two SEC losses—to Tennessee and Mississippi, the latter at home—and are now 2-2 in conference play. The Hawkeyes beat Minnesota and Ohio State, knocking the Buckeyes down to a 9.

Two other big movers follow: Georgetown (beat DePaul and Butler) and Indiana (beat Penn State and Illinois) are both up two slots. They push past four teams that drop a notch: NC State, Dayton, Michigan State, and Oklahoma State. Each of those teams lost last week except Dayton, who just got caught in the wrong place on the chart; they're in good shape in the Atlantic 10 at 15-2 (5-0).

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
25	7	Arkansas	SEC	13-4	2-2	31	32	5.0	70.4	-4
26	7	Iowa	Big Ten	13-5	4-1	43	26	3.0	68.5	+3
27	7	Georgetown	Big East	12-5	4-2	28	40	3.5	67.9	+2
28	7	Indiana	Big Ten	14-4	4-1	44	42	3.5	67.6	+2
29	8	North Carolina St.	ACC	13-6	4-2	36	33	2.5	66.4	-1
30	8	Dayton	Atlantic 10	15-2	5-0	25	46	2.5	66.3	-1
31	8	Michigan St.	Big Ten	12-6	3-2	37	19	0.5	64.3	-1
32	8	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	11-5	2-3	33	29	3.5	63.6	-2
33	9	Georgia	SEC	11-5	2-2	27	35	1.0	62.4	+2
34	9	SMU	American	13-4	5-1	20	37	1.0	62.1
35	9	Ohio St.	Big Ten	14-5	3-3	58	7	0.0	62.0	-1
36	9	Xavier	Big East	12-6	3-3	34	24	-0.5	61.8
37	10	Northern Iowa	MVC	16-2	5-1	21	45	2.0	61.6
38	10	San Diego St.	Mtn West	13-4	4-1	19	47	2.0	60.0	+2
39	10	Colorado St.	Mtn West	16-2	4-2	35	53	-1.0	55.7	+1
40	10	St. John's	Big East	11-5	1-4	40	49	3.5	54.7

Georgia moves up from 11- to 9- with wins over Vandy and Florida even their SEC record. And in the Mountain West, both San Diego State and Colorado State are up to 10-seeds after notching two conference wins each.

The Bubble: SEC has the most to gain, lose

While Miami jumps into the brackets as an 11-seed after beating Duke (and losing to Notre Dame), another ACC team, Syracuse, plummets from 8- to 11- after edging Wake Forest in overtime and falling to Clemson. But the SEC has the most teams in the mix. LSU lost to Texas A&M and falls from a 10-seed, while the Aggies move into the Play-In area as a result. Just below the waterline we find Alabama and Mississippi; the Tide are out after losing twice last week, to South Carolina and (badly) to Kentucky. Ole Miss lost to LSU but beat Arkansas and that was enough to put them right on the cusp of a bid. Further down, Florida had a 3-game winning streak ended by Georgia but is high enough in Strength that there's still hope, and they are 3-1 in conference play. Tennessee won twice last week and their résumé is similar to Florida's (without the bad FSU loss), but their Strength doesn't portend an upward move; we shall see.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
41	11	Miami FL	ACC	12-5	2-2	55	34	0.0	54.7	+
42	11	LSU	SEC	13-4	2-2	48	71	3.0	54.4	-1
43	11	Syracuse	ACC	13-5	4-1	57	50	-1.5	53.7	-3
44	11	Washington	Pac-12	13-4	2-3	49	59	1.0	53.3	+
45	11	Texas A&M	SEC	11-5	2-2	39	58	0.0	52.8	+
46	12	George Washington	Atlantic 10	14-4	4-1	41	54	1.5	52.7	-1
47	12	Cincinnati	American	12-5	3-2	32	48	3.5	52.7	-1
48		Alabama	SEC	11-5	2-2	53	55	0.0	49.5	-
49		Mississippi	SEC	11-6	2-2	47	43	-3.0	49.3
50	12	Old Dominion	C-USA	15-2	4-1	30	51	1.5	47.3
51		Davidson	Atlantic 10	11-4	3-2	51	30	0.0	47.0	-
52		Florida	SEC	10-7	3-1	70	25	-3.5	45.8
53		Tulsa	American	12-4	5-0	42	76	-1.0	44.4
54		Illinois	Big Ten	12-7	2-4	64	36	-2.0	44.0	-
55		Tennessee	SEC	11-5	3-1	52	92	0.0	44.0
56		UCLA	Pac-12	11-7	3-2	65	60	-0.5	42.7
57		BYU	West Coast	13-6	5-3	46	28	-2.5	41.5
58		Saint Mary's	West Coast	14-3	7-0	62	64	-1.0	41.1

Two Pac-12 bubble teams had a recent resurgence. Washington was on the skids after four straight losses, but they beat Oregon State and topped Oregon Sunday night and that moved them back into the bracket in the Play-in line. Meanwhile UCLA beat USC for their third straight win. The Bruins are still just 11-7 and their RPI, Strength, and Wins Composite are all underwater, but two weeks ago they were 8-7 and 0-2 in conference play. Both Wash and UCLA may be long-term bubble teams that will need a strong tournament performance to get in.

The other Play-in contest would be George Washington vs. Cincinnati; both teams fell from an 11-seed last week. Cincy lost to Memphis, while the Colonials RPI and Win Composite slipped despite two wins. Another Atlantic 10 team, Davidson, fell out of the brackets after a loss to Richmond. Only the true Major conferences have much leeway with conference losses.

Speaking of non-Major conferences, the West Coast could be a 1-bid league (Gonzaga), or they might have three bids if BYU and St. Mary's come through. So far the Cougars are struggling at 5-3 in conference play and 13-6 overall, while the Gaels are 14-3 and 7-0. St. Mary's beat BYU on Saturday, 82-77, but the Strength ratings give the Cougars the better chance to make the Big Dance. As it stands now they're neck-and-neck, with BYU's tougher schedule making things even.