Here is the latest Dance Chance (click to see full breakdown) which contains a number of surprises, the least of which is Maryland working their way to a top seed.
There's a pretty broad consensus regarding the other three top seeds. Kentucky is back as the top overall seed after crushing Missouri 86-37 and Alabama 70-48; Virginia remained undefeated with two easy ACC wins; and Villanova boosted their record to 17-1. All three are near-locks for the tournament at 99.9% on the Dance Chance.
The last number one seed, per most bracketologists, is up for grabs after Duke's loss to Miami last week dropped them to a 2. But our formula is pretty much alone in giving it to Maryland; the Terps beat Michigan State on Saturday to put them at 17-2 and at 5-1, in the Big Ten lead. Their Wins Composite is strong, and their RPI is good, but their Strength ranking of #23 suggests it will be hard to end up a top seed—particularly with Wisconsin close behind at a 2-seed and favored to win the conference tournament.
# | Proj Seed |
Team | Conference | Div I record |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
STR rank |
Wins comp |
Dance Chance |
Seed Chg |
1 | 1 | Kentucky | SEC | 17-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 1 | 15.5 | 99.9 | |
2 | 1 | Virginia | ACC | 17-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 2 | 13.0 | 99.9 | |
3 | 1 | Villanova | Big East | 17-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 9 | 10.0 | 99.9 | |
4 | 1 | Maryland | Big Ten | 17-2 | 5-1 | 13 | 23 | 8.5 | 95.3 | +1 |
5 | 2 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 16-2 | 4-1 | 6 | 10 | 6.0 | 94.5 | +1 |
6 | 2 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 16-2 | 4-1 | 9 | 5 | 5.5 | 94.1 | |
7 | 2 | Duke | ACC | 15-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | 8.5 | 93.6 | -1 |
8 | 2 | Kansas | Big 12 | 14-3 | 3-1 | 3 | 17 | 10.0 | 92.6 | |
9 | 3 | Gonzaga | West Coast | 17-1 | 7-0 | 7 | 3 | 8.0 | 88.2 | |
10 | 3 | North Carolina | ACC | 14-4 | 4-1 | 12 | 6 | 5.5 | 88.1 | |
11 | 3 | Notre Dame | ACC | 17-2 | 5-1 | 38 | 15 | 6.5 | 86.4 | +1 |
12 | 3 | Utah | Pac-12 | 13-3 | 4-1 | 11 | 8 | 5.0 | 86.0 | -1 |
Utah might have claimed a top seed had they not run into Arizona on Saturday. The Wildcats dominated the Utes 69-51, which knocked Utah to the low 3-seed and elevated Arizona to the top 2-seed. Kansas is the final 2-seed despite their loss to Iowa State; they remain #3 in the RPI and beat OK State earlier in the week.
Gonzaga continues to win and move up, and the Zags have now reached the top 3-seed. Many people have them a 1-seed already, but as a member of the weak West Coast conference that may be a bit premature. Any slipup by the Bulldogs will hurt them a lot, and with the WCC a possible 1-bid league there aren't many more chances to improve their résumé. In other words, they're priced to perfection as a 1-seed, but if they keep winning they'll probably get there in the Dance Chance. Formula systems have trouble dealing with teams like Gonzaga; last year Wichita State was a 1-seed in the Dance Chance, but Gonzaga in 2013 finished a 2-seed. Rounding out the three-seeds are ACC members North Carolina and Notre Dame, as the 17-2 Irish jump a notch.
In the 4-6 seeds, there's a lot of Big Twelve. 4-seed Iowa State can't move up despite the Kansas win since they lost to 6-seed Baylor three nights earlier. Before that, they beat 4-seed West Virginia, who split with 5-seeds Oklahoma (win) and Texas (loss) last week. The Longhorns moved up 2 lines to a 5-seed with the win, while the Sooners moved up a line as well after beating Oklahoma State on Saturday.
# | Proj Seed |
Team | Conference | Div I record |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
STR rank |
Wins comp |
Dance Chance |
Seed Chg |
13 | 4 | Iowa St. | Big 12 | 13-3 | 3-1 | 15 | 16 | 7.5 | 84.6 | |
14 | 4 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 15-3 | 3-2 | 16 | 13 | 4.5 | 84.1 | |
15 | 4 | Butler | Big East | 13-6 | 3-3 | 14 | 20 | 8.0 | 80.4 | +1 |
16 | 4 | VCU | Atlantic 10 | 15-3 | 5-0 | 4 | 22 | 5.0 | 80.4 | +1 |
17 | 5 | Louisville | ACC | 15-3 | 3-2 | 29 | 11 | 4.0 | 79.8 | -1 |
18 | 5 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 12-5 | 3-2 | 24 | 12 | 8.0 | 79.1 | +1 |
19 | 5 | Texas | Big 12 | 13-4 | 2-2 | 22 | 14 | 3.5 | 75.5 | +2 |
20 | 5 | Wichita St. | MVC | 15-2 | 6-0 | 10 | 21 | 4.5 | 73.7 | +1 |
21 | 6 | Baylor | Big 12 | 13-4 | 2-3 | 18 | 18 | 2.0 | 72.9 | |
22 | 6 | Seton Hall | Big East | 13-4 | 3-2 | 17 | 41 | 3.5 | 72.2 | -1 |
23 | 6 | Providence | Big East | 14-5 | 4-2 | 23 | 44 | 3.5 | 71.9 | -1 |
24 | 6 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 13-4 | 4-1 | 26 | 38 | 2.5 | 71.5 | +2 |
There's also a lot of Big East, with Butler leading the way, up a seed despite splitting with Seton Hall and Georgetown. Seton Hall dropped the overtime game with the Bulldogs and are down to a 6-seed, and Providence too falls as they lost to St. John's.
This region also contains two non-Major conference leaders, VCU and Wichita State; both are up a notch at 15-3 and 15-2 respectively, and undefeated in the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley. Both are top 10 in RPI and good enough in Strength to foresee that they could avoid upsets and rise even higher. Meanwhile Louisville drops to their lowest forecasted seed of the year at 5 after their home loss to Duke, and Stanford is up two rungs to a 6-seed after beating Cal and UConn last week.
What a difference a week makes: last week Arkansas was a 3-seed in the Dance Chance and Iowa was holding on as a 10-seed—now they're neck-and-neck for the top 7-seed. The Razorbacks plummeted with two SEC losses—to Tennessee and Mississippi, the latter at home—and are now 2-2 in conference play. The Hawkeyes beat Minnesota and Ohio State, knocking the Buckeyes down to a 9.
Two other big movers follow: Georgetown (beat DePaul and Butler) and Indiana (beat Penn State and Illinois) are both up two slots. They push past four teams that drop a notch: NC State, Dayton, Michigan State, and Oklahoma State. Each of those teams lost last week except Dayton, who just got caught in the wrong place on the chart; they're in good shape in the Atlantic 10 at 15-2 (5-0).
# | Proj Seed |
Team | Conference | Div I record |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
STR rank |
Wins comp |
Dance Chance |
Seed Chg |
25 | 7 | Arkansas | SEC | 13-4 | 2-2 | 31 | 32 | 5.0 | 70.4 | -4 |
26 | 7 | Iowa | Big Ten | 13-5 | 4-1 | 43 | 26 | 3.0 | 68.5 | +3 |
27 | 7 | Georgetown | Big East | 12-5 | 4-2 | 28 | 40 | 3.5 | 67.9 | +2 |
28 | 7 | Indiana | Big Ten | 14-4 | 4-1 | 44 | 42 | 3.5 | 67.6 | +2 |
29 | 8 | North Carolina St. | ACC | 13-6 | 4-2 | 36 | 33 | 2.5 | 66.4 | -1 |
30 | 8 | Dayton | Atlantic 10 | 15-2 | 5-0 | 25 | 46 | 2.5 | 66.3 | -1 |
31 | 8 | Michigan St. | Big Ten | 12-6 | 3-2 | 37 | 19 | 0.5 | 64.3 | -1 |
32 | 8 | Oklahoma St. | Big 12 | 11-5 | 2-3 | 33 | 29 | 3.5 | 63.6 | -2 |
33 | 9 | Georgia | SEC | 11-5 | 2-2 | 27 | 35 | 1.0 | 62.4 | +2 |
34 | 9 | SMU | American | 13-4 | 5-1 | 20 | 37 | 1.0 | 62.1 | |
35 | 9 | Ohio St. | Big Ten | 14-5 | 3-3 | 58 | 7 | 0.0 | 62.0 | -1 |
36 | 9 | Xavier | Big East | 12-6 | 3-3 | 34 | 24 | -0.5 | 61.8 | |
37 | 10 | Northern Iowa | MVC | 16-2 | 5-1 | 21 | 45 | 2.0 | 61.6 | |
38 | 10 | San Diego St. | Mtn West | 13-4 | 4-1 | 19 | 47 | 2.0 | 60.0 | +2 |
39 | 10 | Colorado St. | Mtn West | 16-2 | 4-2 | 35 | 53 | -1.0 | 55.7 | +1 |
40 | 10 | St. John's | Big East | 11-5 | 1-4 | 40 | 49 | 3.5 | 54.7 |
Georgia moves up from 11- to 9- with wins over Vandy and Florida even their SEC record. And in the Mountain West, both San Diego State and Colorado State are up to 10-seeds after notching two conference wins each.
The Bubble: SEC has the most to gain, lose
While Miami jumps into the brackets as an 11-seed after beating Duke (and losing to Notre Dame), another ACC team, Syracuse, plummets from 8- to 11- after edging Wake Forest in overtime and falling to Clemson. But the SEC has the most teams in the mix. LSU lost to Texas A&M and falls from a 10-seed, while the Aggies move into the Play-In area as a result. Just below the waterline we find Alabama and Mississippi; the Tide are out after losing twice last week, to South Carolina and (badly) to Kentucky. Ole Miss lost to LSU but beat Arkansas and that was enough to put them right on the cusp of a bid. Further down, Florida had a 3-game winning streak ended by Georgia but is high enough in Strength that there's still hope, and they are 3-1 in conference play. Tennessee won twice last week and their résumé is similar to Florida's (without the bad FSU loss), but their Strength doesn't portend an upward move; we shall see.
# | Proj Seed |
Team | Conference | Div I record |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
STR rank |
Wins comp |
Dance Chance |
Seed Chg |
41 | 11 | Miami FL | ACC | 12-5 | 2-2 | 55 | 34 | 0.0 | 54.7 | + |
42 | 11 | LSU | SEC | 13-4 | 2-2 | 48 | 71 | 3.0 | 54.4 | -1 |
43 | 11 | Syracuse | ACC | 13-5 | 4-1 | 57 | 50 | -1.5 | 53.7 | -3 |
44 | 11 | Washington | Pac-12 | 13-4 | 2-3 | 49 | 59 | 1.0 | 53.3 | + |
45 | 11 | Texas A&M | SEC | 11-5 | 2-2 | 39 | 58 | 0.0 | 52.8 | + |
46 | 12 | George Washington | Atlantic 10 | 14-4 | 4-1 | 41 | 54 | 1.5 | 52.7 | -1 |
47 | 12 | Cincinnati | American | 12-5 | 3-2 | 32 | 48 | 3.5 | 52.7 | -1 |
48 | Alabama | SEC | 11-5 | 2-2 | 53 | 55 | 0.0 | 49.5 | - | |
49 | Mississippi | SEC | 11-6 | 2-2 | 47 | 43 | -3.0 | 49.3 | ||
50 | 12 | Old Dominion | C-USA | 15-2 | 4-1 | 30 | 51 | 1.5 | 47.3 | |
51 | Davidson | Atlantic 10 | 11-4 | 3-2 | 51 | 30 | 0.0 | 47.0 | - | |
52 | Florida | SEC | 10-7 | 3-1 | 70 | 25 | -3.5 | 45.8 | ||
53 | Tulsa | American | 12-4 | 5-0 | 42 | 76 | -1.0 | 44.4 | ||
54 | Illinois | Big Ten | 12-7 | 2-4 | 64 | 36 | -2.0 | 44.0 | - | |
55 | Tennessee | SEC | 11-5 | 3-1 | 52 | 92 | 0.0 | 44.0 | ||
56 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 11-7 | 3-2 | 65 | 60 | -0.5 | 42.7 | ||
57 | BYU | West Coast | 13-6 | 5-3 | 46 | 28 | -2.5 | 41.5 | ||
58 | Saint Mary's | West Coast | 14-3 | 7-0 | 62 | 64 | -1.0 | 41.1 |
Two Pac-12 bubble teams had a recent resurgence. Washington was on the skids after four straight losses, but they beat Oregon State and topped Oregon Sunday night and that moved them back into the bracket in the Play-in line. Meanwhile UCLA beat USC for their third straight win. The Bruins are still just 11-7 and their RPI, Strength, and Wins Composite are all underwater, but two weeks ago they were 8-7 and 0-2 in conference play. Both Wash and UCLA may be long-term bubble teams that will need a strong tournament performance to get in.
The other Play-in contest would be George Washington vs. Cincinnati; both teams fell from an 11-seed last week. Cincy lost to Memphis, while the Colonials RPI and Win Composite slipped despite two wins. Another Atlantic 10 team, Davidson, fell out of the brackets after a loss to Richmond. Only the true Major conferences have much leeway with conference losses.
Speaking of non-Major conferences, the West Coast could be a 1-bid league (Gonzaga), or they might have three bids if BYU and St. Mary's come through. So far the Cougars are struggling at 5-3 in conference play and 13-6 overall, while the Gaels are 14-3 and 7-0. St. Mary's beat BYU on Saturday, 82-77, but the Strength ratings give the Cougars the better chance to make the Big Dance. As it stands now they're neck-and-neck, with BYU's tougher schedule making things even.
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