Dance Chance update: Games through December 4th

Our pre-season Dance Chance was based on our pre-season rankings, and we've since updated the Dance Chance twice. This is a run-down of what's been going on since the start of the season, and who has moved up and down in the last week and a half.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
1	1	Kentucky	SEC	7-0	0-0	2	1	4.0	82.6
2	1	Arizona	Pac-12	7-0	0-0	16	13	3.0	82.1
3	1	Louisville	ACC	6-0	0-0	11	2	2.5	80.9
4	1	Wisconsin	Big Ten	7-1	0-0	13	3	3.5	80.7	+1
5	2	Virginia	ACC	8-0	0-0	20	6	1.0	80.4	-1
6	2	Duke	ACC	8-0	0-0	4	4	3.0	79.9
7	2	Kansas	Big 12	5-1	0-0	8	9	3.0	78.2
8	2	Villanova	Big East	7-0	0-0	23	11	2.0	77.8	+1

Arizona had already fallen from the overall #1 seed on the November 23 edition of the Dance Chance, mostly due to their lower Bayesian Strength ranking. Kentucky is #1 in Strength and #2 in RPI, but their Dance Chance percentage is lower than their pre-season value; that's because things like Wins Composite (naturally very low at this point in the season) are factored in. The Dance Chance value transitions from being predictive to being a measure of how much a team has yet to accomplish to secure a bid, so the numbers ease down for a while before starting to move back up toward 100% (or down to 0%).

Louisville hasn't lost yet, either, and remains a 1-seed, while Wisconsin takes the last spot away from Virginia despite their loss to Duke, who is the 2nd 2-seed. The Blue Devils have moved up from a pre-season 3-seed. Kansas survived their beatdown by Kentucky to beat Michigan State and remain a 2-seed while undefeated Villanova moves into the last 2-seed spot.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
9	3	Texas	Big 12	7-0	0-0	7	7	2.0	77.7
10	3	North Carolina	ACC	5-2	0-0	28	5	0.0	75.2	-1
11	3	Iowa	Big Ten	6-2	0-0	27	14	0.5	71.5	+1
12	3	Michigan	Big Ten	5-1	0-0	32	22	1.0	71.3	+1
13	4	Oklahoma	Big 12	4-2	0-0	55	15	-0.5	70.7	-1
14	4	Iowa St.	Big 12	5-1	0-0	10	17	3.5	68.6	+3
15	4	Utah	Pac-12	6-1	0-0	60	12	1.0	67.3	+2
16	4	VCU	Atlantic 10	5-2	0-0	26	21	0.5	67.1
17	5	San Diego St.	Mtn West	6-1	0-0	21	19	1.5	66.5
18	5	Gonzaga	West Coast	6-0	0-0	1	8	1.5	66.2
19	5	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	6-0	0-0	67	23	0.5	66.0	+2
20	5	Michigan St.	Big Ten	5-3	0-0	61	20	-0.5	65.4	+1

Texas is the top 3-seed and is projected to win the Big Twelve tournament. They play Kentucky this very evening in a great pre-conference-season clash. North Carolina has some good wins but also two losses and drops to a 3-seed, while Iowa—who beat the Tar Heels in the Dean Dome—moves up from a 4. Michigan also moves up to a 3 while Oklahoma's 2 losses drop them to a 4-seed.

Iowa State and Utah are big movers, both up multiple lines to the 4-seed slot. The Cyclones' RPI improved dramatically from a few weeks ago, from #172 to #10 (very early RPI values are often chaotic), due to last night's win over Arkansas and their previous win over Alabama; they are the only team to beat either squad, and move up from a 7-seed. Utah beat Wichita State and moves up from a #6; they're actually a slight favorite to win the Pac-12 tournament at this point. Oklahoma State is undefeated and up from a 7-seed to a 5-seed, while Michigan State has lost their last 2 games but still moves up to a 5-seed, due to Florida's fall (see below). Both of the Spartans' losses were to good teams.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
21	6	Florida	SEC	3-3	0-0	128	29	-1.5	65.2	-3
22	6	Baylor	Big 12	7-1	0-0	78	18	-1.0	63.6
23	6	Ohio St.	Big Ten	5-1	0-0	12	16	1.0	63.4	+2
24	6	Wichita St.	MVC	3-1	0-0	34	10	-0.5	63.2	-2
25	7	Connecticut	American	3-2	0-0	41	27	0.0	62.7	-2
26	7	Stanford	Pac-12	4-2	0-0	73	28	-1.0	60.1
27	7	UCLA	Pac-12	6-2	0-0	143	36	-1.0	59.9	-2
28	7	Pittsburgh	ACC	3-3	0-0	121	57	-3.5	59.9	-1
29	8	Arkansas	SEC	6-1	0-0	19	26	1.0	59.8	+1
30	8	Syracuse	ACC	5-2	0-0	30	24	1.0	59.0	+1
31	8	Nebraska	Big Ten	5-1	0-0	79	41	0.0	58.7
32	8	BYU	West Coast	4-2	0-0	29	25	0.0	54.9

Speaking of Florida, the Gators are just 3-3 after losses to Miami, Georgetown, and North Carolina—nothing horrible, but enough to dock them down to a 6-seed from a 3-seed in late November. Baylor was a pre-season 7-seed and is unchanged from the last update; meanwhile, Ohio State lost to Louisville but moves up 2 seeds due to a number of teams above them plunging. Wichita State, UConn, and UCLA all fall 2 seeds and Pittsburgh falls one; the way the Panthers are playing—their Bayesian Strength rating has fallen to #57—they probably have further to fall. Arkansas and Syracuse are up a notch each, despite each suffering a recent loss.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
33	9	Tennessee	SEC	2-3	0-0	189	62	-1.5	54.5	-2
34	9	St. John's	Big East	4-1	0-0	95	50	0.5	52.3	+1
35	9	Maryland	Big Ten	7-1	0-0	70	37	2.0	52.2	+2
36	9	Providence	Big East	6-1	0-0	39	38	1.0	52.0	+1
37	10	Creighton	Big East	6-2	0-0	146	53	-2.0	51.6	-2
38	10	Minnesota	Big Ten	4-2	0-0	57	31	-0.5	51.5
39	10	Oregon	Pac-12	4-2	0-0	102	40	-1.0	51.4	-1
40	10	SMU	American	4-3	0-0	94	32	-1.0	50.7	-1
41	11	Kansas St.	Big 12	4-3	0-0	126	55	-2.0	49.3	-1
42	11	Cincinnati	American	6-1	0-0	91	54	-1.5	44.9

Our pre-season ranking for Tennessee (#27) was out of step with others and it's starting to show; at 2-3, the Vols fall to a 9-seed and their Strength rating suggests the drop will continue. St. John's, Maryland, and Providence all move up a slot, while Creighton—also probably overrated at #33 pre-season—drops after suffering two losses since our last update.

Early losses don't often mean much in the long run as teams find their footing, so we don't punish Oregon, SMU, and Kansas State too much for having 2 or 3 defeats at this stage. They all fall one slot to 10- or 11-seeds and if they continue to lose they'll drift off the seedings.

The Bubble: Illinois, NC State, and West Virginia in; Tulsa, Indiana, New Mexico out

Illinois' strong play—including a win over Baylor—has earned them entry as an 11-seed, and above the "play-in" line, too. The current play-in teams would be 11-seeds Georgia and North Carolina State, who joins at 6-1 despite a loss to Purdue in the Big Ten/ACC challenge. Also new to the seeding is West Virginia; the Mountaineers were undefeated until losing to LSU Thursday night (the Tigers themselves are a low bubble team). West Virginia would face George Washington, a former 11-seed now hanging on as the last team in at 4-2.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
43	11	Illinois	Big Ten	6-1	0-0	52	30	0.5	44.2	+
44	11	Georgia	SEC	4-3	0-0	87	39	-1.5	44.0
45	11	North Carolina St.	ACC	6-1	0-0	33	44	2.0	42.3	+
46	12	West Virginia	Big 12	7-1	0-0	37	35	1.0	40.9	+
47	12	Harvard	Ivy League	4-1	0-0	18	43	1.0	40.0
48	12	George Washington	Atlantic 10	4-2	0-0	93	42	-0.5	39.6	-1
49		Georgetown	Big East	4-2	0-0	97	46	-0.5	39.0
50		Seton Hall	Big East	6-0	0-0	42	52	2.0	38.1
51		Tulsa	American	4-3	0-0	99	63	-3.5	38.1	-
52		Indiana	Big Ten	6-1	0-0	185	48	-0.5	37.3	-
53		Xavier	Big East	5-2	0-0	106	33	-1.0	37.2
54		Miami FL	ACC	8-0	0-0	3	34	5.0	37.1
55		LSU	SEC	6-2	0-0	36	73	3.0	36.7
56		Colorado	Pac-12	5-1	0-0	46	47	-1.0	36.4
57		New Mexico	Mtn West	4-3	0-0	233	86	-4.5	35.0	-

Georgetown and Seton Hall from the Big East are the first two left out, while Tulsa and Indiana dropped due to losses—Tulsa has 3 and Indiana lost to Eastern Washington at home, leaving them with a #185 RPI. Both teams have some good wins that will help them later as they try to get back in. New Mexico takes a big dive from 12-seed to a very low bubble team as the Lobos have struggled to a #233 RPI and a Strength ranking that has fallen from #39 pre-season to #86.

Four teams that would rank in most seedings right now—Xavier, Miami, LSU, and Colorado—are moving up but haven't overcome the pre-season "smoothing" that keeps the Dance Chance from being chaotic early on. In particular the Hurricanes are playing well—8-0, a #3 RPI, and a current Strength ranking of #10—but we don't want to jump the gun on anyone; it will be a few more weeks before the Dance Chance "believes" that Miami is that good. Also, the RPI becomes more "trusted" as the year proceeds so right now being #3 doesn't help very much. Our next update should see most or all of these teams in the seedings if they continue to play well.

Minor conference champs: Holy Cross, UCSB, Belmont, Eastern Washington in, among others

There were a lot of changes in the projected auto-bid in minor conference play. Since these will be decided by tournament play we use our Strength ranking (currently the Bayesian version that modifies our pre-season rankings).

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
124	13	Holy Cross	Patriot	3-1	0-0	24	113	1.5	8.7	+
127	14	UC Santa Barbara	Big West	3-3	0-0	71	80	-1.0	8.4	+
135	14	Belmont	Ohio Valley	6-1	0-0	85	95	-1.0	6.9	+
144	15	Eastern Washington	Big Sky	4-1	0-0	63	135	-1.0	5.0	+
161	15	William & Mary	Colonial Ath	4-2	0-0	167	136	-1.5	3.2	+
164	16	Wofford	Southern	5-2	0-0	104	114	-2.0	3.1	+
176	16	South Dakota St.	Summit	1-3	0-0	275	133	-3.5	2.7	+
199	16	High Point	Big South	4-2	0-0	164	166	-2.0	2.1	+
237	16	Bryant	Northeast	1-4	0-0	208	218	-3.5	1.5	+

In the Patriot League, Holy Cross replaces Boston University (who replaced pre-season fave American). The Crusaders will a decent seed, too, if they can keep their RPI in the top 25!

Other replacements:

• UC Santa Barabara is the new favorite in the Big West, replacing UC Irvine
• Belmont takes over in the Ohio Valley from Murray State
• In the Big Sky, Eastern Washington is now the favorite, not Southern Utah, who falls to 1-4
• William & Mary should win the Colonial Athletic tournament; the previous favorite was Northeastern
• Wofford looks like the best team in the Southern conference but quite a bit now over Mercer
• Although just 1-3 against Division I, South Dakota State has the best Strength rating of Summit teams, topping former leader North Dakota State (3-3) who beat Division II Minnesota Crookston by just a point at home.
• High Point now looks better than Coastal Carolina in the Big South, and finally,
• Bryant, despite a 1-4 record, looks likely to bounce back and win the Northeast conference; formerly we picked Robert Morris. No team in the NEC has a winning record right now.