Kentucky bears a strong resemblance to two Final Four teams of the past. Will they finish like famous runners-up or famous champions?
1992 Michigan Wolverines
This is the most obvious comparison. Even before the season began the Wildcats were being compared to the 1992 Michigan team: Michigan had the Fab Five, and Kentucky had Julius Randle, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, Dakari Johnson, James Young, and Marcus Lee; all were McDonald's All-Americans, and all rated among the top 100 players in the nation coming out of high school. The first five were ranked in the top ten.
The hype was a bit too much, as fans and even coach John Calipari suggested a 40-0 season was possible and the team opened the season at #1 in the polls. Even the Fab Five started at a more modest #20 in 1991.
The two teams had similar success during the season. As the year progressed, both teams eventually started five freshmen. They won a lot, and lost quite a bit, too. While Michigan's 20-8 season was considered only a slight disappointment if one at all, Kentucky's 24-10 slate was considered a bomb by many in an era where freshman dominance was taken for granted. Kentucky finished the year unranked while Michigan was #14 in 1992 before the tournament.
The Wolverines got a 6-seed while Kentucky drew an 8-seed, which seemed unfair not only for the number but also for the placement: their path would take them through 3 of last year's Final Four teams.
But both teams caught fire during the tournament, their freshman having done a lot of growing up during the last four months. Michigan beat 11-seed Temple, 14-seed East Tennessee State, 2-seed Oklahoma State, and 1-seed Ohio State to reach the Final Four. Kentucky topped 9-seed Kansas State, 1-seed Wichita State, 4-seed Louisville, and 2-seed Michigan.
If Kentucky continues to follow the Fab Five path they will beat Wisconsin to make it to the championship game where they will lose; a loss to Florida would most closely match what happened to Michigan in 1992. The Wolverines beat Cincinnati and lost to Duke. The Blue Devils had just 2 losses and had defeated Michigan earlier in the season; Florida has beaten Kentucky three times and will have just 2 losses if they make the final game.
1985 Villanova Wildcats
But what if the Wildcats win it all? Then they could be very similar to the 1985 Villanova Wildcats. Not in terms of team composition, but in terms of record, seed, and final opponent. For this scenario to complete, they have to meet Florida in the championship game and beat the Gators.
In 1985, Villanova carried a 19-10 record into the tournament—10 losses and an 8-seed, just like Kentucky. They beat 9-seed Dayton, 1-seed Michigan, 5-seed Maryland, and 2-seed North Carolina to reach the Final Four. There, they beat 2-seed Memphis State to make it to the championship game, and faced a daunting task: trying to beat a team that had defeated them twice during the year.
Georgetown made the final game with but 2 losses, just as Florida will have if they make it. They beat Villanova 52-50 on the road and 57-50 at home. But Villanova won when it mattered, beating the #1-ranked Hoyas 66-64 in one of the biggest upsets in college basketball history.
If Kentucky faces Florida they'll also be taking on the #1 team, a team with just 2 losses, and a team that's defeated them not just twice but three times on the year. The Gators won 69-59 in Lexington, 84-65 in Gainsville, and 61-60 in Atlanta during the SEC tournament.
Or neither?
Of course, if Kentucky doesn't beat Wisconsin, or faces UConn in the final, then the similarities aren't quite as strong. But if they beat the Badgers and Florida beats Connecticut, then the paths are set and they have just two ways to go: completing the same destiny of the Fab Five in finishing as NCAA tournament runner-up with all freshmen, or following Villanova's path of winning the title as an 8-seed with 10 losses by beating the team that hurt them the most during the season.
Comments