Who gets the final #1 seed? It probably comes down to the Big Ten tournament final between Michigan and Michigan State. A Michigan win might get the top seed for the Wolverines. We've been saying this for some time—that a team that wins the Big Ten regular season and tournament would have a shot at a top seed, and Michigan was the only team with a chance to do that.
But it also depends on how the committee views the Big East. Conference affiliation isn't supposed to matter, but a lot of things that aren't supposed to matter do. If the Big East is thought of as a true "major" conference:
- Villanova gets a 1-seed
- Creighton might get a 3-seed
- Providence could be as high as a 9-seed
- Xavier gets in
If the Big East is thought of as a "near Major" conference, a la the Atlantic 10:
- Villanova gets a 2-seed
- Creighton is a 4-seed at best
- Providence is an 11- or 12-seed
- Xavier doesn't get in
The end result might be some combination of the above. And even if the Big East is a "Major," Villanova might get pushed off the 1-line by a victorious Michigan. The "tells" will be where Providence and Xavier end up.
| # | Proj Seed |
Team | Conference | Div I record |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
Str rank |
Wins comp |
Dance Chance |
Seed Chg |
| 1 | 1 | Florida | SEC | 31-2 | 18-0 | 2 | 3 | 15.5 | 100% | |
| 2 | 1 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 30-4 | 15-3 | 1 | 2 | 15.5 | 100% | |
| 3 | 1 | Wichita St. | MVC | 33-0 | 18-0 | 4 | 17 | 7.0 | 100% | |
| 4 | 1 | Villanova | Big East | 28-4 | 16-2 | 5 | 8 | 10.5 | 100% | |
| 5 | 2 | Michigan | Big Ten | 25-7 | 15-3 | 9 | 10 | 14.0 | 100% | |
| 6 | 2 | Kansas | Big 12 | 24-9 | 14-4 | 3 | 4 | 15.0 | 100% | |
| 7 | 2 | Virginia | ACC | 27-6 | 16-2 | 11 | 14 | 7.5 | 100% | +1 |
| 8 | 2 | Syracuse | ACC | 27-5 | 14-4 | 16 | 22 | 11.5 | 100% | +1 |
| 9 | 3 | Duke | ACC | 26-7 | 13-5 | 7 | 5 | 10.0 | 100% |
Recently we re-designated the Big East as a Major conference, and thus Villanova holds the top seed. Michigan is close behind in any case, but probably won't catch them even with a win over the Spartans. But they would if the Big East were a near-Major. The 2/3 line is full of ACC teams, and the Virginia-Duke final will determine who stays a 2. Syracuse is considered a 3-seed by most, and if Duke wins our projection might reflect that.
| # | Proj Seed |
Team | Conference | Div I record |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
Str rank |
Wins comp |
Dance Chance |
Seed Chg |
| 10 | 3 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 26-7 | 12-6 | 6 | 12 | 12.5 | 100% | -1 |
| 11 | 3 | Creighton | Big East | 26-7 | 14-4 | 10 | 7 | 9.0 | 100% | -1 |
| 12 | 3 | Louisville | American | 29-5 | 15-3 | 18 | 1 | 10.0 | 100% | +1 |
| 13 | 4 | Iowa St. | Big 12 | 26-7 | 11-7 | 8 | 15 | 10.5 | 100% | |
| 14 | 4 | San Diego St. | Mtn West | 27-4 | 16-2 | 15 | 23 | 6.0 | 100% | -1 |
| 15 | 4 | Michigan St. | Big Ten | 25-8 | 12-6 | 21 | 11 | 9.0 | 100% |
Here's where things go awry: with Creighton still a 3-seed, that denies Iowa State a 3-seed that they're probably going to get in actuality as the Big 12 tournament champs. The Bluejays would be a good litmus test, but Louisville and Iowa State are both probably deserving of 3-seeds so they will likely get pushed to a 4-seed no matter what.
UCLA moves up to a 4-seed by beating Arizona, and that's not unrealistic given that Cincinnati failed to reach the American final. New Mexico probably tops out at a 5-seed, too, and Kentucky probably won't pass UCLA even if they upset Florida.
| # | Proj Seed |
Team | Conference | Div I record |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
Str rank |
Wins comp |
Dance Chance |
Seed Chg |
| 16 | 4 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 26-8 | 12-6 | 14 | 13 | 4.5 | 100% | +1 |
| 17 | 5 | Cincinnati | American | 27-6 | 15-3 | 20 | 27 | 8.5 | 100% | -1 |
| 18 | 5 | New Mexico | Mtn West | 27-6 | 15-3 | 13 | 35 | 4.5 | 99.9 | |
| 19 | 5 | Kentucky | SEC | 24-9 | 12-6 | 17 | 18 | 5.0 | 99.9 | |
| 20 | 5 | VCU | Atlantic 10 | 26-7 | 12-4 | 12 | 25 | 4.5 | 99.9 | +1 |
| 21 | 6 | North Carolina | ACC | 23-9 | 13-5 | 25 | 29 | 5.5 | 99.9 | |
| 22 | 6 | Ohio St. | Big Ten | 25-9 | 10-8 | 24 | 16 | 5.5 | 99.9 | -1 |
| 23 | 6 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 23-9 | 12-6 | 27 | 26 | 5.0 | 99.9 | |
| 24 | 6 | Connecticut | American | 26-8 | 12-6 | 22 | 24 | 7.5 | 99.9 |
VCU can wrap up the Atlantic 10 against St. Joseph's, but a loss there drops them to a 6-seed. Ohio State settled there after losing to Michigan, while UConn dropped to the low 6-seed after falling to Louisville.
Skipping down to the 9-seeds, Providence takes a big leap after winning the Big East by beating Creighton. Here is our real litmus test for the Big East—does Providence get a 9? Or do the Friars settle for an 11- or 12-seed? With their RPI at 40 and a 10-8 record in a Major conference—and having just won the tournament of a Major conference—they should be up here. If the Big East is just the Atlantic 10 redux, maybe they're an 11 or 12.
| # | Proj Seed |
Team | Conference | Div I record |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
Str rank |
Wins comp |
Dance Chance |
Seed Chg |
| 35 | 9 | Providence | Big East | 23-11 | 10-8 | 40 | 49 | 1.5 | 74.8 | +2 |
| 36 | 9 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 21-12 | 10-8 | 41 | 36 | 2.0 | 73.3 | |
| 37 | 10 | Oklahoma St. | Big 12 | 21-12 | 8-10 | 45 | 6 | 1.5 | 71.8 | |
| 38 | 10 | Tennessee | SEC | 20-12 | 11-7 | 42 | 21 | -2.0 | 70.7 | -1 |
| 39 | 10 | Saint Joseph's | Atlantic 10 | 23-9 | 11-5 | 37 | 66 | 3.5 | 67.6 | +1 |
| 40 | 10 | Kansas St. | Big 12 | 20-12 | 10-8 | 51 | 44 | 5.0 | 65.9 | |
| 41 | 11 | Arizona St. | Pac-12 | 21-11 | 10-8 | 44 | 39 | -0.5 | 65.0 | -1 |
| 42 | 11 | Iowa | Big Ten | 19-12 | 9-9 | 57 | 9 | 3.5 | 63.8 | -1 |
| 43 | 11 | SMU | American | 23-9 | 12-6 | 53 | 34 | 0.5 | 60.3 |
Speaking of the Atlantic 10, St. Joseph's is still alive an could move up to a 9-seed with a win over VCU today. The rise of Providence and St. Joe's knocks Arizona State and Iowa further toward the bubble but both seem to be safe...though SMU might find itself playing on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Here is our take on the bubble with no bubble-team games left. We have BYU and Nebraska playing to get in as an 11-seed. This makes sense for BYU—the committee will consider their Kyle Collinsworth's injury—but we feel SMU might replace Nebraska. The other matchup, Xavier vs. Dayton, makes a lot of sense if the committee wants to at least partially offset Dayton's home court advantage in the play-in game.
| # | Proj Seed |
Team | Conference | Div I record |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
Str rank |
Wins comp |
Dance Chance |
Seed Chg |
| 44 | 11 | BYU | West Coast | 22-11 | 13-5 | 31 | 37 | -1.0 | 59.3 | |
| 45 | 11 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 19-12 | 11-7 | 48 | 60 | 2.5 | 57.4 | |
| 46 | 12 | Xavier | Big East | 20-12 | 10-8 | 47 | 43 | 0.0 | 56.4 | |
| 47 | 12 | Harvard | Ivy League | 25-4 | 13-1 | 46 | 47 | -3.0 | 53.3 | |
| 48 | 12 | Dayton | Atlantic 10 | 23-10 | 10-6 | 43 | 62 | 1.0 | 51.0 | |
| 49 | Florida St. | ACC | 19-13 | 9-9 | 54 | 40 | 1.5 | 49.1 | ||
| 50 | Southern Miss | C-USA | 25-6 | 13-3 | 32 | 75 | -4.0 | 47.8 | ||
| 51 | Missouri | SEC | 22-11 | 9-9 | 49 | 63 | -3.0 | 45.1 | ||
| 52 | Louisiana Tech | C-USA | 26-7 | 13-3 | 62 | 30 | -4.0 | 42.7 | - | |
| 53 | Arkansas | SEC | 21-11 | 10-8 | 77 | 33 | -1.0 | 41.1 | ||
| 54 | 12 | Stephen F. Austin | Southland | 27-2 | 18-0 | 52 | 94 | -2.0 | 40.2 | +1 |
| 55 | St. John's | Big East | 20-12 | 10-8 | 68 | 42 | -1.0 | 38.9 | ||
| 56 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 19-13 | 8-10 | 50 | 48 | -0.5 | 37.9 |
That of course assumes that those teams are in. But there aren't a lot of compelling replacements, and no one has a chance to improve their lot. Like we said, Xavier is a litmus test, and right now just about everyone considers the Musketeers to be "in." If they aren't, it pretty much indicates that the Big East's status isn't that of a Major conference.
The C-USA will probably get a raw deal, with two teams in the First Four Out. But with 68 teams in the tournament there isn't much room to complain. The SEC also looks to have two near-misses with Missouri and Arkansas.
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