Three Days Left: A Top Seed Still Up For Grabs

Three days left of basketball before Selection Sunday, and the top seeds are almost locked in.

Almost.

Villanova's loss today kept things interesting, leaving a number of teams in contention for the final slot.

We see Florida, Arizona, and Wichita State as locks, and as we mentioned earlier today, Kansas in the lead for the last slot with a big caveat concerning Joel Embiid's status.

If not Kansas, we have Syracuse next in line if they can win the ACC; then probably Michigan if they can win the Big Ten tournament. Virginia, Wisconsin, and Duke are also in the mix, but so is Villanova if no other team ends up with a convincing enough argument. The 'Cats didn't fall too hard despite the loss to lowly Seton Hall, and their full-year résumé is very strong.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	Str rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
1	1	Florida	SEC	29-2	18-0	2	5	13.5	100%
2	1	Arizona	Pac-12	29-3	15-3	1	2	16.0	100%
3	1	Wichita St.	MVC	33-0	18-0	4	15	7.5	100%
4	1	Kansas	Big 12	24-8	14-4	3	3	16.0	100%
5	2	Syracuse	ACC	27-4	14-4	11	22	11.0	100%
6	2	Villanova	Big East	28-4	16-2	5	8	9.5	100%
7	2	Michigan	Big Ten	23-7	15-3	9	9	9.5	100%
8	2	Virginia	ACC	25-6	16-2	12	14	6.0	100%
9	3	Wisconsin	Big Ten	25-6	12-6	6	13	11.5	100%
10	3	Duke	ACC	24-7	13-5	7	4	9.0	100%

The rest of the 3-seeds and below don't have a shot at a 1-seed, and will be hard-pressed to get up to a 2-seed under any circumstances. San Diego State is probably maxed out trying to hold a 3-seed. Louisville muscles their way onto the 3-line; Creighton will end up there if they win the Big East. Iowa State, too, if they win the Big 12 and after some of the ACC/Big Ten teams above fall short.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	Str rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
11	3	San Diego St.	Mtn West	26-3	16-2	13	23	6.5	100%
12	3	Louisville	American	27-5	15-3	24	1	7.5	100%	+1
13	4	Creighton	Big East	25-6	14-4	8	6	7.5	100%	-1
14	4	Iowa St.	Big 12	24-7	11-7	10	17	9.0	100%
15	4	Cincinnati	American	27-5	15-3	15	26	8.0	100%
16	4	Michigan St.	Big Ten	23-8	12-6	26	11	7.0	99.9
17	5	North Carolina	ACC	23-8	13-5	22	29	5.0	99.9
18	5	UCLA	Pac-12	24-8	12-6	21	16	3.0	99.9	+1
19	5	Saint Louis	Atlantic 10	25-5	13-3	20	44	7.0	99.9
20	5	Kentucky	SEC	22-9	12-6	19	18	3.0	99.9

UCLA jumped a seed line after beating Oregon, one of the better wins today in terms of seed matchups. The Ducks held onto their 7-seed, though. Oklahoma took a hit for losing to Baylor, dropping to a 6.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	Str rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
21	6	New Mexico	Mtn West	25-6	15-3	16	40	2.0	99.9
22	6	Oklahoma	Big 12	23-9	12-6	27	25	5.5	99.9	-1
23	6	Ohio St.	Big Ten	24-8	10-8	23	12	3.0	99.9
24	6	VCU	Atlantic 10	24-7	12-4	14	27	4.5	99.9
25	7	Gonzaga	West Coast	27-6	15-3	18	19	1.0	99.5
26	7	Connecticut	American	25-7	12-6	25	24	6.0	95.4
27	7	Texas	Big 12	23-9	11-7	31	41	8.0	94.2
28	7	Oregon	Pac-12	23-9	10-8	28	28	5.5	92.6

The Bears moved up to an 8-seed. Oft-maligned Pitt got a convincing win today over Wake Forest and seems to be firmly in the tournament for once and for all.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	Str rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
29	8	Pittsburgh	ACC	24-8	11-7	40	20	1.5	88.8
30	8	Massachusetts	Atlantic 10	24-7	10-6	17	47	6.0	87.6
31	8	Baylor	Big 12	21-10	9-9	32	34	7.0	83.1	+1
32	8	George Washington	Atlantic 10	23-7	11-5	30	51	5.5	80.4
33	9	Colorado	Pac-12	23-10	10-8	33	50	4.0	79.4
34	9	Stanford	Pac-12	21-11	10-8	39	33	3.5	75.7	+2
35	9	Memphis	American	22-9	12-6	36	38	5.0	74.5	-1
36	9	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	21-12	8-10	45	7	2.5	70.3
37	10	Arizona St.	Pac-12	21-11	10-8	42	36	1.0	69.0	-1
38	10	Tennessee	SEC	19-11	11-7	44	21	-2.0	67.5
39	10	Kansas St.	Big 12	20-12	10-8	50	46	5.0	64.0
40	10	Iowa	Big Ten	19-12	9-9	54	10	2.5	63.2

The big winner since last Sunday appears to be Stanford, who got two wins including a late evening win over Arizona State that dropped the Sun Devils to a 10-seed while the Cardinal moved from an 11- to a 9-seed. Memphis lost big to UConn and fell to a 9. Oklahoma State held their 9-seed after taking Kansas into overtime, while Iowa held onto the final 10-seed despite losing to Northwestern, a team they'd beaten twice during the regular season by 26 points each time.

The Bubble: Florida State in, Arkansas out; what to do about the Big East?

SMU's loss to Houston almost put them in the play-in category, but that goes to BYU, Southern Miss, St. Joe's, and Florida State currently. Each is still precarious. BYU faces a possible injury downgrade from the committee; Southern Miss might have to win the C-USA to avoid sliding out; St. Joseph's takes on 11-seed Dayton in the Atlantic 10 tournament and that might be an elimination bout; and Florida State is holding on by a thread and facing ACC 1-seed Virginia next.

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	Str rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Seed Chg
41	11	Nebraska	Big Ten	19-11	11-7	41	60	1.5	62.2
42	11	Dayton	Atlantic 10	23-9	10-6	38	62	3.0	60.5
43	11	SMU	American	23-9	12-6	53	35	0.5	58.8	-1
44	11	BYU	West Coast	22-11	13-5	34	37	-1.0	57.2
45	11	Southern Miss	C-USA	25-5	13-3	29	71	-3.0	55.8
46	12	Saint Joseph's	Atlantic 10	21-9	11-5	43	67	2.5	54.1	-1
47	12	Harvard	Ivy League	25-4	13-1	48	49	-3.0	52.2
48	12	Florida St.	ACC	19-12	9-9	52	39	1.5	51.5	+
49		Missouri	SEC	22-10	9-9	49	63	-3.0	48.6
50		Minnesota	Big Ten	19-12	8-10	47	42	-1.0	47.2
51		Arkansas	SEC	21-11	10-8	72	32	-1.5	45.7	-
52		California	Pac-12	19-13	10-8	58	59	0.5	42.6
53		Xavier	Big East	20-11	10-8	46	45	-1.0	41.4
54		Utah	Pac-12	19-11	9-9	78	31	1.0	39.3
55		Providence	Big East	21-11	10-8	51	52	-0.5	38.2
56	12	Toledo	MAC	25-5	14-4	37	103	-2.5	37.0	+
57	12	Louisiana Tech	C-USA	24-6	13-3	70	30	-4.5	35.7
58		Green Bay	Horizon	21-6	14-2	57	66	-2.5	31.4

Waiting in the wings are Missouri, Minnesota, Arkansas, and California. The latter two are done, having lost in their tournaments, and will need a deluge of losses by teams above them to crawl back in (or a lucky pick from the committee). Missouri takes on Florida next, and Minnesota faces Wisconsin. High risk, but high reward.

The Second Four Out still has two Big East teams in it, Xavier and Providence. The Friars eliminated St. John's but didn't improve their own lot much. All year we've been debating how to designate the Big East conference in our system, noting we'd probably elevate them to a pure Major conference. Our rankings for these teams are much lower than the consensus so it appears that that's how the Big East is being perceived; both would be in the brackets if we did that. Stay tuned. Xavier takes on Creighton and can pretty much seal the deal there, while Providence faces Seton Hall in a game they should win but one that won't do much for them.

Note also that we have two C-USA teams in the brackets; if Southern Miss loses in the tournament, they probably fall out, and if the Golden Eagles win the tourney, Louisiana Tech won't get an at-large bid. So at some point another slot might "open up", the opposite of the bid stealing that we're so used to seeing, where the at-large line contracts.