Wisconsin Badgers
Seed: 2
Record: 30-7
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 8
Record: 28-10
Conference: SEC
Date: Saturday, April 5
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Location: Arlington, TX
Channel: TBS
Both teams had to go thru a 1-seed; Kentucky did it in the 2nd round, Wisconsin in the Elite Eight.
Wisconsin Kentucky
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #5 Strength: #14
Median play: #7 Median play: #14
Road/Neutral Rank: #2 Road/Neutral Rank: #15
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#4 Sagarin: #10
Pomeroy: #6 Pomeroy: #8
Offense: #4 Offense: #9
Defense: #45 Defense: #40
LRMC: #11* LRMC: #15*
BPI: #8 BPI: #7
Power Rating Derivatives
2nd half/season: #8 2nd half/season: #14
NCAA tournament: #1 NCAA tournament: #5
Consistency: #213* Consistency: #15*
Schedule Strength: #3* Schedule Strength: #27*
*LRMC, Consistency, and SOS as of March 16th
Wisconsin is a pretty big favorite by Strength, less so by Sagarin, Pomeroy has the teams nearly tied, and the BPI puts Kentucky ahead by a spot. Wisconsin has been a strong road team all year. On offense and defense the teams are nearly twins by efficiency, with the Badgers a bit better on offense and the Wildcats a notch ahead on D.
Wisconsin has played better over the last 4 games than any team, thought their 40-point win over American inflates that. Still, they're better than Kentucky over 3, 2, or 1 game, too. Kentucky is without Willie Cauley-Stein again, but without him they beat Louisville and Michigan—last year's champ and runner-up—so it doesn't seem to be hurting them too much. But they will miss their 7-footer against Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (13): Florida+6, =Saint Louis+6, @Virginia+10, Milwaukee+26, Eastern Kentucky+25, Iowa+4, Michigan St.+2, @Michigan+13, @Iowa+5, =American+40, =Oregon+8, =Baylor+17, =Arizona+OT
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (6): Florida+6, @Virginia+10, Michigan St.+2, @Michigan+13, =Baylor+17, =Arizona+OT
- Wins vs. Final Four (1): Florida+6
- Losses to tournament teams (4): Michigan-7, Ohio St.-1, @Nebraska-9, =Michigan St.-8
- Other losses (3): @Indiana-3, @Minnesota-13, Northwestern-9
Key Info: Wisconsin started 16-0 including wins over future 1-seeds Florida and Virginia. Just when it appeared they might be invincible they lost five of their next six games, with three losses at home. And not to great teams either; three of them didn't make the Big Dance. Again, just when it looked hopeless they turned it around and won 8 straight games. The Badgers lost 2 of 3 at the end but in-between crushed Minnesota 83-57.
If Michigan and Michigan State had won their Elite Eight games, Wisconsin would have had a win over each of the other Final Four teams. Instead, they have to settle for just one.
7-footer Frank Kaminsky is a force inside, averaging 13.6 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. The rest of the starters shoot mostly threes and most are pretty good at it. The Badgers play a slow tempo, though not nearly as slow as in previous years when they were among the slowest teams in the country.
Against American Wisconsin might have played their best game yet, winning 75-35; Traevon Jackson led with 18 and the defense held the Eagles under 30%. The Badgers had to work a lot harder against Oregon but prevailed under Kaminsky's 19. In the Sweet Sixteen Wisconsin hit Baylor hard from the start and coasted, 69-52, Kaminsky again leading with 19. Wisconsin beat Arizona in overtime after rallying behind Kaminsky's 28 points and 11 rebounds.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =Providence+14, Louisville+7, Tennessee+8, =Kansas St.+7, =Wichita St.+2, =Louisville+5
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): Louisville+7, Tennessee+8, =Louisville+5
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =Michigan St.-4, @Baylor-5, @North Carolina-5, Florida-10, @Florida-19, =Florida-1
- Other losses (4): @Arkansas-OT, @LSU-5, Arkansas-OT, @South Carolina-5
Key Info: Kentucky's season was defined not by their wins but their losses. Beating Louisville was probably the highlight; on the downside, they lost to Florida three times, Michigan State and North Carolina, and to Arkansas twice, in overtime both times. The fact that the Michigan State (neutral) and North Carolina (road) losses were close, and the loss to the Gators in the SEC finale was a 1-point affair shows how good they are. Their record reveals perhaps their inexperience.
As with most modern Calipari teams, Kentucky is assembled of freshman, heralded as the greatest recruiting class ever. The team's top eight scorers are all freshmen, led by Julius Randle's 15.0 ppg and 10.5 rebounds. James Young and the Harrison twins all average in double figures, too. They've shown their inexperience this year—even the Fab Five had significant upperclassment contributing and starting much of the season—but things might be coming together, as witnessed by the three SEC tournament games (update: at this time I think that point's been proven).
Kentucky's first tournament game was on par with their recent play as they handled Kansas State; Randle had 19 and Aaron Harrison 18. Against Wichita State the Harrison twins combined for 39 points as they handed the Shockers their first loss. To reach the Elite Eight the Wildcats beat the Louisville Cardinals a 2nd time after trailing almost the entire game. They traded baskets with Michigan all game before Aaron Harrison hit a dagger 3 with seconds left to win it.
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Game Analysis: Wisconsin has been leading heavily on Frank Kaminsky during the tournament; how will he do against Kentucky? Julius Randle has been unstoppable inside himself, but who will stop Kaminsky with UK's own 7-footer, Willie Cauley-Stein, out?
The answer is probably, no one, and Wisconsin won't be able to stop Randle or the rest of Kentucky's offense, either. Both teams are decent on defense but they excel on offense, and this is going to be an offensive battle. Kaminsky will score, Randle will score, Wisconsin and Kentucky will both hit three-pointers, and if not for the moderately slow pace both teams favor, it would be fairly high-scoring.
This is a tough call. Kentucky is playing a lot like the Fab Five in their first year, when that Michigan team got a 6-seed and carried it to the championship game. Kentucky should have been a 6-seed, but got an 8-seed that meant they had to beat three of last year's Final Four to make it to the Final Four themselves. That road has been a lot harder than Wisconsin's road, but beating Arizona is no small accomplishment. And the Badgers beat Oregon and Baylor very convincingly.
Vegas Line:
Kentucky by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
Wisconsin by 1.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kentucky: 44.2%
Wisconsin: 55.8%
Once again, Kentucky is the favorite against a 2-seed. That shows how much respect the team has garnered for blasting through the toughest path of any team in recent tournament memory. This is about what the line might have been if the game had been played in the early part of the season, before Kentucky disappointed.
But the Strength power rating sees the full season and makes Wisconsin the slight favorite. If we're going to take recent performance into account, then we should look at the last several games. As we've said, however, Wisconsin wins ALL those comparisons: 4 games: +7.8 points; 3 games: +2.3 points; 2 games: +2.0 points; 1 game: +2.0 points.
Bottom line: It's hard for us to go against Kentucky given who they've beaten. But it's hard to take them over Wisconsin when the Badgers have been playing better than the Wildcats, even recently. Recent play was going to be our reason to take Kentucky here, and without that in their favor, and missing a key inside player to offset Kaminsky, we're surprising ourselves and taking the Badgers to make it to the championship game.
Final prediction: Wisconsin 76, Kentucky 74
More previews: click here for the full 2014 NCAA tournament schedule.