Of all of the conference tournaments, the Big East tournament might be the most critical. First, they have a potential 1-seed in Villanova, and second, there were four teams on the bubble vying for inclusion in the Big Dance.
The first question might have been answered today as Villanova fell to Seton Hall, 64-63. The Pirates are just 16-16 now on the year, and the bad loss might cost the Wildcats the 1-seed. We had Villanova as the top 2-seed, but they were a near-consensus on the Bracket Matrix as a 1-seed, and with Kansas possibly being penalized for Joel Embiid's injury it was looking like a foregone conclusion...until the Seton Hall loss.
So who will get the final one seed if it's not Villanova? Florida, Arizona, and Wichita State look like 1-seed locks; Arizona won handily today over Utah, while Wichita State is already finished in the MVC and Florida can probably survive a first-round loss in the SEC. Kansas is our current 1-seed choice and the Jayhawks survived an overtime game this afternoon to beat Oklahoma State. But Embiid's status might be the difference in making KU a 2-seed, a move that would work out well geographically with the Shockers and Jayhawks as the top two in the Midwest region.
| # | Proj Seed |
Team | Conference | Div I record |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
Str rank |
Wins comp |
Dance Chance |
Seed Chg |
| 1 | 1 | Florida | SEC | 29-2 | 18-0 | 2 | 5 | 12.5 | 100% | |
| 2 | 1 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 28-3 | 15-3 | 1 | 2 | 16.0 | 100% | |
| 3 | 1 | Wichita St. | MVC | 33-0 | 18-0 | 5 | 15 | 7.5 | 100% | +1 |
| 4 | 1 | Kansas | Big 12 | 23-8 | 14-4 | 3 | 3 | 17.0 | 100% | |
| 5 | 2 | Villanova | Big East | 28-3 | 16-2 | 4 | 8 | 11.5 | 100% | |
| 6 | 2 | Syracuse | ACC | 27-4 | 14-4 | 10 | 21 | 10.5 | 100% | |
| 7 | 2 | Michigan | Big Ten | 23-7 | 15-3 | 9 | 10 | 11.5 | 100% | +1 |
| 8 | 2 | Virginia | ACC | 25-6 | 16-2 | 12 | 14 | 6.5 | 100% | -1 |
| 9 | 3 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 25-6 | 12-6 | 6 | 13 | 12.5 | 100% | -1 |
| 10 | 3 | Duke | ACC | 24-7 | 13-5 | 8 | 4 | 8.0 | 100% |
Above: The Dance Chance before Thursday's action
Though the order differs between the Dance Chance and the Bracket Matrix consensus, the next five candidates are all from either the ACC or the Big Ten. If any of Michigan, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Virginia, or Duke can win their conference tournament, they might gain the last 1-seed. The ACC teams might have a slight edge as Villanova would have been the 1-seed in the East region.
The Bubble: Georgetown, St. John's eliminated?
Four Big East teams were vying for spots in the tournament and two might have been eliminated. One of them, Xavier, was considered "in" by the consensus but all four were outside according to the Dance Chance as of Sunday:
| # | Proj Seed |
Team | Conference | Div I record |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
Str rank |
Wins comp |
Dance Chance |
Seed Chg |
| 49 | California | Pac-12 | 19-12 | 10-8 | 55 | 58 | 1.5 | 49.4 | ||
| 50 | Florida St. | ACC | 18-12 | 9-9 | 59 | 38 | 0.5 | 47.2 | - | |
| 51 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 18-12 | 8-10 | 51 | 43 | 0.5 | 47.0 | ||
| 52 | Missouri | SEC | 21-10 | 9-9 | 52 | 61 | -4.0 | 46.0 | - | |
| 53 | Xavier | Big East | 19-11 | 10-8 | 48 | 46 | -1.0 | 42.1 | ||
| 54 | Toledo | MAC | 25-5 | 14-4 | 36 | 106 | -2.5 | 41.5 | ||
| 55 | 12 | Louisiana Tech | C-USA | 24-6 | 13-3 | 70 | 31 | -4.0 | 41.3 | |
| 56 | St. John's | Big East | 20-11 | 10-8 | 57 | 41 | -1.5 | 39.5 | ||
| 57 | Utah | Pac-12 | 18-10 | 9-9 | 83 | 28 | -0.5 | 39.2 | ||
| 58 | Providence | Big East | 20-11 | 10-8 | 54 | 56 | -1.0 | 37.8 | ||
| 59 | 12 | Stephen F. Austin | Southland | 25-2 | 18-0 | 67 | 98 | -2.0 | 34.9 | +1 |
| 60 | Green Bay | Horizon | 21-6 | 14-2 | 63 | 65 | -2.5 | 34.2 | - | |
| 61 | Clemson | ACC | 19-11 | 10-8 | 77 | 57 | -4.0 | 33.4 | ||
| 62 | Georgetown | Big East | 17-13 | 8-10 | 53 | 51 | 1.5 | 30.7 |
Georgetown was the lowest-ranked of all four and the Hoyas lost yesterday to DePaul, 60-56. They are looking like an NIT team unless the Selection Committee really loves the Big East's high Conference RPI.
St. John's and Providence were neck-and-neck prior to today's game, which may for all intents and purposes be an elimination. Providence prevailed 79-74 in Madison Square Garden, a double-whammy for the Red Storm's chances. The Friars aren't out of the woods yet but their chances got a lot better—especially since instead of facing Villanova next they get Seton Hall.
Meanwhile Xavier probably has to beat Marquette to avoid falling off the bubble themselves. As far as the Dance Chance is concerned, it's a must-win, and the Musketeers might have to beat the Creighton/DePaul winner, too.
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