SportsRatings: College Basketball

The Dance Chance is back, better than...well, same as last year

With a few weeks left in the basketball season, we've started updating the data-driven Dance Chance seeding projections. Instead of tinkering with it, we've left it the same as last year. Though there are some areas which need improvement, it generally does pretty well and in terms of algorithmic solutions it seems to beat the other ones I'm familiar with.

In short, there wasn't time for the quality analysis needed for substantial improvement, but that may change in the coming weeks. For now, we're sticking with it as-is.

There is one small change, which won't matter come Selection Sunday: we now designate as the auto-bid team from each conference the team with the best Strength rating. That not only makes more sense—why should the best-seeded team be assumed the conference tournament winner?—but also makes things more interesting in terms of the bubble and the minor conferences. For example, in today's Dance Chance a team with a losing record (Charleston Southern) is put in the seedings; that happens a lot in real life, too.

First up, the top seeds:

#	Proj Seed	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	STR rank	Wins comp	Dance Chance	Chg 2/22- 2/23
1	1	Arizona	Pac-12	25-2	12-2	2	1	13.5	100%
2	1	Florida	SEC	25-2	14-0	3	12	10	100%
3	1	Kansas	Big 12	21-6	12-2	1	5	18.5	100%
4	1	Syracuse	ACC	25-2	12-2	9	19	11.5	100%
5	2	Wisconsin	Big Ten	22-5	9-5	5	9	13	100%
6	2	Wichita St.	MVC	28-0	16-0	8	18	5	100%
7	2	Duke	ACC	22-6	11-4	6	4	8.5	100%
8	2	Villanova	Big East	24-3	12-2	4	8	9.5	100%

Here, we see a typical problem with algorithmic solutions: they have trouble dealing with a very highly-rated mid-major conference team. Last year it was Gonzaga, this year Wichita State. which shows as a 2-seed right now. The Shockers aren't guaranteed a 1-seed but if they go undefeated it's extremely likely, and it might not show up here. Arizona, Florida, and Syracuse are the consensus picks, while Kansas rates high on the Dance Chance due to their #1 RPI and insane Win Composite score. Also looking good is Wisconsin; the Badgers rate the top 2-seed and top Big Ten team.

Villanova is a 2-seed but the Big East is problematic this year: are they still a major conference? Performance-wise, it would seems so. But we downgraded them due to the exodus of great teams, and they're only getting two teams in the brackets right now. An adjustment might be required as the consensus is they'll put 4 or 5 in the tournament.

9	3	Virginia	ACC	23-5	14-1	16	17	5	99.9
10	3	Creighton	Big East	23-4	13-2	7	6	8	99.9
11	3	Michigan	Big Ten	19-7	11-3	13	10	10.5	99.9	+2
12	3	Iowa St.	Big 12	21-5	9-5	11	16	10.5	99.9
13	4	Michigan St.	Big Ten	22-6	11-4	19	14	10	99.9	-1

Virginia is 14-1 in the ACC and that's why we have them knocking on the door of a 2-seed. But their Win Comp is fairly low, similar to Wichita State's. Michigan jumped 2 seeds to a #3 for beating Michigan State, which knocked the Spartans to a 4-seed.

17	5	UCLA	Pac-12	21-6	10-4	14	11	3	99.2	-1
18	5	Cincinnati	American	24-4	13-2	21	24	5.5	97.5
19	5	Louisville	American	23-4	12-2	27	2	5	96.7
20	5	North Carolina	ACC	20-7	10-4	22	23	5.5	93.6
21	6	San Diego St.	Mtn West	21-3	12-2	20	25	5	92.7
22	6	Iowa	Big Ten	18-7	8-5	28	3	8	92.3

This section shows a bit of the change from the conference tournament winner projections. Though Cincy still narrowly leads Louisville in their Dance Chance rating, it's the Strength rating that projects the American conference winner as the Cardinals. Likewise, note that Iowa is the Big Ten winner despite being just a projected 6-seed. The top six seed, San Diego State, is another hard-to-place team; their quality wins profile is similar to Wichita State's and they have 3 losses now. Bracketologists have them all over the place, from a 2-seed to a 7-seed, with the average being the low 3-seed.

27	7	Colorado	Pac-12	20-8	9-6	26	49	4	79.3	+1
28	7	Connecticut	American	21-6	9-5	30	21	3	76.4
29	8	Pittsburgh	ACC	20-7	8-6	44	20	2	75.3	-1
30	8	SMU	American	22-6	11-4	36	28	1	74.7	+2

SMU's win over UConn put the Mustangs up a few seeds to a middle-8. Meanwhile Pitt's loss to FSU dropped them a seed and helped elevate Colorado back to a 7-seed just a day after their loss to Arizona.

44	11	BYU	West Coast	19-10	12-5	33	37	-2	55.7
45	11	Nebraska	Big Ten	16-10	8-6	48	64	1.5	54.6	+1
46	12	Florida St.	ACC	16-11	7-8	56	36	1	51.8	+
47	12	Arkansas	SEC	18-9	7-7	70	29	-1.5	50.2	-1
48		Minnesota	Big Ten	16-11	6-9	46	48	0	49.9	-
49		Southern Miss	C-USA	21-5	10-3	35	71	-3.5	47.2	-
50		Tennessee	SEC	15-11	7-7	60	33	-2	47.0
51	12	Toledo	MAC	22-4	11-3	32	93	-2	46.7
52		Richmond	Atlantic 10	18-9	8-4	47	78	1	46.4
53		Clemson	ACC	17-9	8-6	67	54	-2.5	45.9

Now, the bubble: starting with the teams expected to "play-in": Nebraska joins with their fifth conference win in a row, to play BYU for an 11-seed. And Florida State's win over Pitt puts them head-to-head with Arkansas for a 12-seed.

Minnesota drops out with a 16-11 overall and 6-9 conference record, with borderline RPI and Strength numbers and no help from Wins Composite. Despite all that, they're in great position if they turn things around. Southern Miss is a casualty of our new conference-winner projection, as they are the highest-ranked Conference USA team but don't get the auto-bid. That makes the C-USA a potential bubble burster if Southern Miss finishes strong but doesn't win the conference.

The Big East problem: Here is where teams #3 thru #7 rank in the Dance Chance right now:

54		St. John's	Big East	18-10	8-7	53	41	-1.5	44.1
56		Xavier	Big East	17-9	8-6	50	52	-3	42.3
62		Providence	Big East	18-10	8-7	62	57	-1	37.1
67		Georgetown	Big East	16-11	7-8	64	56	0	31.6
69		Marquette	Big East	16-11	8-6	75	53	-0.5	30.4

None of these teams has a fantastic résumé: all but Xavier have double-digits in the loss column, and are just barely above .500 in-conference (with Georgetown down a game). Their RPIs range from a borderline 50 to a near-prohibitive 75, and none has impressive Strength save perhaps St. John's. Their wins against RPI teams are meager to say the least, with none above-water. In short, we could see all of these teams missing the tournament, but the consensus is that at least 2 and maybe 3 will get in. If we consider the Big East a full-fledged power conference, then St. John's and Xavier just slip in, and that might be the most realistic scenario.

Despite loss, Arizona is still our #1 -- for now

It seems pretty simple—when there are three undefeated teams, two from major conferences, and the top-ranked undefeated team loses, one of the other teams takes its place. That's what happened in the AP poll when #1 Arizona lost to California; Syracuse (21-0) took over at #1, and was a unanimous selection at that.

But based on Arizona's season so far, keeping them #1 isn't so far-fetched. We're not talking about team "Strength" or any concept of quality, either—just plain accomplishments in the season so far. And by that measure, we'd argue that a 1-loss Arizona is still miles ahead of undefeated Syracuse and Wichita State.

The Wildcats are the only team to beat 19-1 San Diego State (on the road), and they've topped Duke on a neutral court and defeated Michigan on the road, too. Those teams are #5, #11, and #10 in the latest AP poll. Add the recent road win over UCLA and their 8-0 Pac-12 start, and the Wildcats were far and away the most accomplished team prior to their loss. There's a reason they only fell to #2 in the AP poll.

Syracuse counters with an overtime win over Duke at home, a win over Villanova at home, and a neutral court win over the Cal team that beat Arizona. And in general, their schedule is littered with decent victims (Minnesota, Baylor, Indiana, etc.) Make no mistake, Syracuse's 22-0 start is phenomenal, and would be #1 worthy almost any year. But Arizona still ranks higher in our Success rankings even after their loss—and the Success rankings absolutely love undefeated teams, to the point where it's a very rare situation when a team with a loss can be #1 ahead of any no-loss teams.

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Arizona                   21-1     66.95
2.  Syracuse                  21-0     51.20
3.  Wichita St.               23-0     34.90
4.  San Diego St.             19-1     28.10
5.  Creighton                 18-3     24.51
6.  Villanova                 19-2     23.09
7.  Florida                   19-2     19.63
8.  Michigan St.              19-3     19.02
9.  Kansas                    16-5     19.00
10. Cincinnati                21-2     18.14

As you can see, our Success rankings put Arizona and Syracuse far ahead of the rest of the pack, with Wichita State and San Diego State a strong #3 and #4. But Arizona is still in a class of its own, despite the Orange's reasonably tough schedule. Further, Arizona is playing so much better on average than Syracuse (#1 in Strength to #18 in Strength) that our Combined rankings show an even wider gap:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Arizona                   21-1     91.30
2.  Syracuse                  21-0     69.35
3.  Wichita St.               23-0     52.18
4.  Creighton                 18-3     46.49
5.  San Diego St.             19-1     45.20
6.  Villanova                 19-2     43.16
7.  Kansas                    16-5     40.12
8.  Michigan St.              19-3     39.40
9.  Florida                   19-2     39.05
10. Michigan                  16-5     36.82

If Syracuse manages to win out—something no one has done since UNLV in 1991, prior to the tournament—they'll undoubtedly pass Arizona. And worse for the Wildcats, their past performance might not matter very much now that they've lost starter Brandon Ashley. They'll still be good, but not as dominant as they were for their first 21 games. If they can lose to Cal—a team not exactly playing their best lately—then other teams will have a good chance, especially before they figure out how to play without Ashley.

There's another phenomenon, too, that several Big Ten teams encountered: once you lose your undefeated record, the losses tend to add up. This could hit Arizona while they're vulnerable. Of course, it could start with Syracuse, too. The team least likely to take a hit? Wichita State, of course, as their schedule is by far the easiest of the three.

In the end, it could be Wichita State undefeated, and maybe at #1—or maybe not. With the games Arizona and Syracuse have left, they could be our #1 with one or two losses pretty easily. And even the AP poll might not reward the Shockers with a #1 ranking in that case.