Louisville Cardinals
Seed: 1
Record: 34-5
Conference: Big East
vs.
Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 4
Record: 31-7
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Monday, April 8
Time: 9:23 pm Eastern
Location: Atlanta, GA
Louisville is looking for their first national title since 1986, Michigan their first since 1989.
Louisville Michigan
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #5
Neutral court: #1 Neutral court: #4
Median: #2 Median: #6
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#1 Sagarin: #4
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #5
Offense: #5 Offense: #1
Defense: #1 Defense: #32
LRMC (March 17): #4 LRMC: #9
Partial Season Refactorings
2nd half/season: #1 2nd half/season: #7
NCAA Tournament: #2 NCAA Tournament: #1
Louisville is now #1 in our Strength power rating, and #1 in Pomeroy, too. They've been #1 since Selection Sunday in Sagarin's Predictor. The Cardinals are #5 in offensive efficiency to match their #1 defense. Michigan's offense ranks #1 in efficiency and for the 5 games of the tournament they rank about 1/2 point better than the Cardinals overall.
Michigan's offense has overcome several of the best defenses in the nation in their tournament run, beating #6 Syracuse, #3 Florida, and #5 Kansas. The Wolverines were 0-2 against #2 Wisconsin this season. Louisville's #1 defense hasn't faced many of the top offensive efficiency teams; the Cards beat Colorado State (#8) in the tournament and beat #4 Duke after losing to the Blue Devils earlier in the season.
Season overview: Louisville (34-5)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =Missouri+23, @Memphis+9, =Western Kentucky+23, Pittsburgh+3, Marquette+19, @Syracuse+5, Cincinnati+16, Notre Dame+16, =Villanova+19, =Notre Dame+12, =Syracuse+17, North Carolina A&T+31, Colorado St.+26, =Oregon+8, =Duke+22, =Wichita St.+4
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (6): =Marquette+19, @Syracuse+5, =Syracuse+17, =Oregon+8, =Duke+22, =Wichita St.+4
- Wins vs. Final Four (3): @Syracuse+5, =Syracuse+17, =Wichita St.+4
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =Duke -5, Syracuse-2, @Villanova-9, @Georgetown-2, @Notre Dame-OT
- Other losses (0): none
- Wins vs. teams better than Michigan: 1
- Losses to teams worse than Michigan: 4
Key Info: Louisville's chart just keeps looking better and better: consistent and rising near the end, with a solid winning streak and one of the team's best games to close it off. Forget the three losses in a row at mid-season; since then, Louisville's been on a tear. Forget the early erratic performance, too, as they now rank in the top 100 in consistency. The Oregon win was the first "step down" in a long time, but it was minor, and the Duke win was a new high. Wichita State was the team's worst—or rather, lowest quality—performance since mid-February.
Rick Pitino teams are famous for their pressing defense. This year Louisville's defense is exceptional and they rank #1 in efficiency in Pomeroy's tempo-free stats. They're #2 in the nation in steals and turnover percentage. Their offense isn't as celebrated but it's solid, ranking in the top 25 (now the top 5), with Russ Smith at 18 points the team leader. Guard Peyton Siva, center Gorgui Dieng, and forward Chane Behanan all add 10 points, while Dieng culls 9.9 rebounds per game.
Louisville's 31-point win over North Carolina A&T exactly matched their average performance; Smith had 23 points in the win. The Colorado State blowout was one of their best games, with Smith scoring 27 and the Cards outrebounding the #1 rebounding team in the nation. Smith had a career-high 31 against Oregon. Against Duke, the team caught fire in the 2nd half with Smith again leading with 23. Against Wichita State they came down from the emotional high over Kevin Ware's injury and struggled to a 72-68 win as Luke Hancock's 20 bench points made the difference.
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Season overview: Michigan (31-7)
- Wins vs. tournament teams (13): =Pittsburgh+5, =Kansas St.+14, North Carolina St.+7, @Minnesota+8, @Illinois+14, Ohio St.+OT, Illinois+13, Michigan St.+1, =South Dakota St.+15, =Virginia Commonwealth+25, =Kansas+OT, =Florida+20, =Syracuse+5
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): Ohio St.+OT, Michigan St.+1, =Kansas+OT, =Florida+20, =Syracuse+5
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =Syracuse+5
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @Ohio St.-3, @Indiana-8, @Wisconsin-OT, @Michigan St.-23, Indiana-1, =Wisconsin-9
- Other losses (1): @Penn St.-6
- Wins vs. teams better than Louisville: 0
- Losses vs. teams worse than Louisville: 7
Key Info: Michigan started off 16-0 and at times looked unstoppable. But once they reached #1, they lost. It wasn't a bad loss—at Ohio State, by 3 points—and they won four straight after it to stand at 21-1. But then the losses started adding up and some—Michigan State by 23, and Penn State(!)—were pretty bad. The question was whether the team could recapture its early greatness, or had that ship sailed? The Wolverines' win over VCU to reach the Sweet Sixteen seemed to answer that question, and if there was any remaining doubt, the comeback vs. Kansas and domination of Florida ended it. Now they're in the national title game for the first time since 1993.
The second half of Michigan's season wasn't a total collapse, and it's somewhat reminiscent of Florida in 2006, who started off 17-0 before losing 6 games in short order. But that team recovered to win their conference tournament, something Michigan didn't do. That team also played defense, something Michigan didn''t do very well for most of the season, though that improved a lot during the tournament.
What the Wolverines do is score. Trey Burke became a true superstar in his sophomore year, averaging 19.2 points per game and 6.7 assists. Tim Hardaway Jr. isn't far behind with 14.8 ppg and 4.7 rebounds. Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III also score in double figures. They're a great 3-point shooting team and overall have the #1 offense in the country.
Michigan's win over South Dakota State wasn't dramatic, but they got the job done. They held Nate Wolters to just 10 points, while Robinson and Hardaway, the two talented sons-of-NBA-players, each had 21. The win over VCU, on the other hand, was an exclamation point, a rare instance where a team gives by far its best performance in the tournament. Mitch McGary had 21 points and 14 rebounds, taking the spotlight from Michigan's more vaunted trio of Burke, Robinson, and Hardaway (who all scored in double figures, too). McGary had 25 against Kansas, but it was Burke—who scored all of his 23 in the 2nd half—who made the difference late, hitting a 30-foot 3-pointer to put the game into overtime.
Michigan took it to Florida early, as Nick Staukas hit 5 early three-pointers and finished with 22 to help send the team to its first Final Four since the Fab Five days 20 years ago. Hardaway led with 13 points as Michigan fended off Syracuse to reach the final.
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Game Analysis: Louisville's #1 defense faces Michigan's #1 offense. The easy way to break this tie is to look at the other sides of the coin, where the Cardinals' #5 offense faces Michigan's #32 defense, but that's misleading since the Wolverines have played much better defense during the tournament.
In fact, during the tournament Michigan's overall play is very slightly better than Louisville's. Both teams have a couple of great performances (Louisville against Duke and Colorado State, Michigan vs. Florida and VCU) and survived a close call or two.
Michigan's offense has overcome some of the best defenses in the nation during their Final Four run, beating Syracuse, Kansas, and Florida. The Florida game was easy, and they handled VCU's press well, but they needed a miracle comeback against Kansas and when Syracuse pressed full-court they had some problems. Louisville's full-court is much harder than VCU's and should be much like what the Orange showed against the Wolverines. The Cardinals aren't as good at defending the 3-pointer as Syracuse, however, and Michigan doesn't get the ball stolen often, so it will be a tough defensive assignment even for Louisville.
Mitch McGary's inside play for Michigan has been key during their tournament run. He scored 21 and 25 against VCU and Kansas with 14 rebounds in each game. He had 10 points and 12 rebounds against Syracuse. But he's also 6 of 16 from the free throw line, including a series late against the Orange where he had 3-to-make-2 (due to a lane violation) and ended up with zero. If the game is close he'll be in the thick of things and if the Cardinals foul him with the game on the line it probably won't resemble Rumeal Robinson against Seton Hall in 1989.
Vegas Line:
Louisville by 3 1/2 to 4
Power rating: spread
Louisville by 3.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Louisville: 61.6%
Michigan: 38.4%
Almost complete agreement between Vegas and our power rating, giving Louisville a near-4-point advantage in the game. Tournament play might put these teams closer but it seems for the oddsmakers the larger sample of games for the full season is more relevant. The Wolverines have a solid chance for an upset according to the game-comparison method.
Bottom line: The #1 offense vs. the #1 defense, who wins? While the Wolverine offense is the best this year, Louisville's defense might be the best of this century so far. The true bottom line is that we had Louisville winning it all before the tournament started and why stray from that prediction now?
Final prediction: Louisville 66, Michigan 62
More previews: click here for the full 2013 NCAA tournament schedule.