|
|
Syracuse Orange
Seed: 4
Record: 30-9
Conference: Big East
vs.
Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 4
Record: 30-7
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Saturday, April 6
Time: 8:50 pm Eastern
Location: Atlanta, GA
Two 4-seeds in the Final Four, and they are the hottest two teams in the nation.
Syracuse Michigan
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Strength: #7 Strength: #6
Neutral court: #7 Neutral court: #6
Median: #6 Median: #8
Other Power Ratings
Sagarin(predictor):#8 Sagarin (28th): #10
Pomeroy: #8 Pomeroy: #5
Offense: #21 Offense: #1
Defense: #5 Defense: #36
LRMC (March 17): #15 LRMC: #9
Partial Season Refactorings
2nd half/season: #11 2nd half/season: #8
NCAA tournament: #1 NCAA Tournament: #3
A very tight game based on the power ratings. Michigan is a spot ahead in our Strength power rating, with Syracuse slightly ahead in median game performance. Pomeroy has Michigan by a nose and Sagarin has Syracuse as of the 28th (the first day of the Elite Eight). The LRMC, which hasn't updated since Selection Sunday, had Michigan more significantly in front. But it's recent play that matters, with Syracuse barely edging Louisville for the #1 spot among tournament teams through 4 games, and Michigan a close #3.
The matchup everyone wants to see is when Michigan's offense is confronted by Syracuse's defense, and Pomeroy's tempo-free numbers call it the #1 offense vs. the #5 defense. On the other end, the Orange have an advantage but not as big as it would have seemed before the tournament. Just a few short weeks ago, many were warning people away from picking Michigan to have a deep run in the tourney because of their defense. The Wolverines played good enough on D to go from #58 to #36 in just 4 games. Syracuse was even better, going from #23 to #5, which probably means they've been the best defensive team since the tournament started.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): @San Diego St.+13, Villanova+11, @Louisville+2, Cincinnati+2, Notre Dame+16, =Pittsburgh+3, =Georgetown+OT, =Montana+47, =California+6, =Indiana+11, =Marquette+16
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): @Louisville+2, =Indiana+11, =Marquette+16
- Wins vs. Final Four (1): @Louisville+2
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =Temple-4, @Villanova-OT, @Pittsburgh-10, Georgetown-11, @Marquette-3, Louisville-5, @Georgetown-22, =Louisville-17
- Other losses (1): @Connecticut-8
- Wins vs. teams better than Michigan: 2
- Losses vs. teams equal to or worse than Michigan: 7
Key Info: Syracuse rocketed to an 18-1 start and limped to an 8-8 finish. Their sole loss in the opening stretch was to Temple, while their only big win before conference season was SDSU. The Orange season almost counts as a "collapse" season, but they won three straight in the conference tournament to right the ship. There's still a clear downward trend in their performance as charted above, and they were clearly playing their best in their first 9 games.
Until, that is, their staggering 81-34 win over Montana, the biggest victory margin ever for a 4-seed over a 13-seed. Also note that the Orange haven't lost to any bad teams, and they're in the top 20 in both offense and defense, a rare combination. Syracuse has four main scorers, all above 12.0 point per game, and after that the next best is 5.3 ppg. C.J. Fair leads with 14.4 and 7.1 rebounds despite his shooting drought in the Big East tournament, while James Southerland and Brandon Triche add 13.9 each. Michael Carter-Williams averages 7.7 assists.
Against the Grizzlies it was Triche leading the way with 20 points but defense was the real story: no player on Montana scored more than 5 points. The Orange had a much tougher challenge from the Cal Bears but won mainly with defense and Fair's 18. Again, Syracuse beat Indiana with defense—19 turnovers and 10 blocked shot—while Carter-Williams had 24 points on the other end.
The Orange reached the Final Four with another great defensive performance; Carter-Williams had 12 points and 11 rebounds in the win over Marquette.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =Pittsburgh+5, =Kansas St.+14, North Carolina St.+7, @Minnesota+8, @Illinois+14, Ohio St.+OT, Illinois+13, Michigan St.+1, =South Dakota St.+15, =Virginia Commonwealth+25, =Kansas+OT, =Florida+20
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): Ohio St.+OT, Michigan St.+1, =Kansas+OT, =Florida+20
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @Ohio St.-3, @Indiana-8, @Wisconsin-OT, @Michigan St.-23, Indiana-1, =Wisconsin-9
- Other losses (1): @Penn St.-6
- Wins vs. teams better than Syracuse: 1
- Losses vs. teams worse than Syracuse: 5
Key Info: Michigan started off 16-0 and at times looked unstoppable. But once they reached #1, they lost. It wasn't a bad loss—at Ohio State, by 3 points—and they won four straight after it to stand at 21-1. But then the losses started adding up and some—Michigan State by 23, and Penn State(!)—were pretty bad. The question was whether the team could recapture its early greatness, or had that ship sailed? The Wolverines' win over VCU to reach the Sweet Sixteen seemed to answer that question, and if there was any remaining doubt, the comeback vs. Kansas and domination of Florida ended it.
The second half of Michigan's season wasn't a total collapse, and it's somewhat reminiscent of Florida in 2006, who started off 17-0 before losing 6 games in short order. But that team recovered to win their conference tournament, something Michigan didn't do. That team also played defense, something Michigan didn''t do very well for most of the season, though that improved during the tournament.
What the Wolverines do is score (or if you prefer, "score the ball"). Trey Burke became a true superstar in his sophomore year, averaging 19.2 points per game and 6.7 assists. Tim Hardaway Jr. isn't far behind with 14.8 ppg and 4.7 rebounds. Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III also score in double figures. They're a great 3-point shooting team and overall have the #1 offense in the country.
Michigan's win over South Dakota State wasn't dramatic, but they got the job done. They held Nate Wolters to just 10 points, while Robinson and Hardaway, the two talented sons-of-NBA-players, each had 21. The win over VCU, on the other hand, was an exclamation point, a rare instance where a team gives by far its best performance in the tournament. Mike McGary had 21 points and 14 rebounds, taking the spotlight from Michigan's more vaunted trio of Burke, Robinson, and Hardaway (who all scored in double figures, too). McGary had 25 against Kansas, but it was Burke—who scored all of his 23 in the 2nd half—who made the difference late, hitting a 30-foot 3-pointer to put the game into overtime.
Michigan took it to Florida early, as Nick Staukas hit 5 early three-pointers and finished with 22 to help send the team to its first Final Four since the Fab Five days 20 years ago.
**************************************************************
|
|
Game Analysis: The obvious story here is offense vs. defense. Michigan's offense is perhaps the best in the country right now while Syracuse's 2-3 zone defense has been frustrating and dismantling opponents all tournament.
Though the Orange played the 2-3 all year (and every year), people have been touting this year's defense as their best ever, and the story is that the team's post-Big East tourney loss prompted the players to hold their own practice session where they "refocused" their D, hence the Final Four run. It makes a great story, but the truth is probably just that the Orange have played a string of great games.
Syracuse and Michigan started out 18-1 and 20-1, respectively, then went 8-8 and 6-6 before Selection Sunday. We've heard the story of why Syracuse recaptured their form, but I haven't heard a story about how Michigan "refocused" their game, or their offense or defense, to play so well. It's probably because, like Syracuse, Michigan has simply played four great games in a row. Both teams are hot and playing their best, regardless of what "caused" it.
But that brings us to the matchup. Can Michigan handle Syracuse's 2-3 zone? If they hit their three-pointers, the answer is yes. Will Syracuse's "long" guards bother the Wolverines? Probably, to some extent. The point is Syracuse's defense is not all of a sudden an impenetrable fortress...any more than Michigan's offense is suddenly an unstoppable force. If the Wolverines don't make their shots, they will have trouble against any defense.
Vegas Line:
Michigan by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
Michigan by 0.43
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Michigan: 50.87%
Syracuse: 49.13%
Who's been better in the tournament? That might be the important question, given that both these teams were 4-seeds so there is no "favorite" by that measure, and the fact that they're so close in the power ratings for the full season. Syracuse ranks #1 over the last 4 games and Michigan #3, with about 4/5 of a point separating them. But is reliable when based on 4 games? A basket here or there at the end of a blowout could change that number.
For the full season our Strength power rating gives Michigan less than a half-point edge, and a very slim majority of game-comparisons (734 out of 1,443 to be exact). Early odds by Vegas, surprisingly, have Michigan favored by 2 1/2 points; I would have expected a pick'em or something close to that. Thinking about it, a 20-point win over Florida is about as good as you can do, while Syracuse beating a Big East team pretty much tells us nothing. I would counter-argue, however, that dominating a program so familiar with Syracuse's 2-3 zone perhaps says that their defense really has bumped up a couple of levels since Selection Sunday.
Bottom line: Who can say which team will be "on", and if both are, who will win in that case? I don't see how there can be a clear-cut favorite. People say "defense wins championships" but so does offense. Defense, however, might be the more reliable of the two. Offense is more "hit and miss," and quite literally in the case of basketball. That gives the edge to Syracuse, but it's still a 50/50 proposition in our eyes and therefore a very tight game. The Orange have a history of winning multiple overtime games, so we'll give the coin flip to Syracuse in triple OT. This game had better not disappoint, I'm counting on one for the ages!
Final prediction: Syracuse 93, Michigan 92 3OT
More previews: click here for the full 2013 NCAA tournament schedule.
|
|