SportsRatings: College Basketball

2012 NIT Championship Game Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (3) Stanford vs. (6) Minnesota

Stanford Cardinal
NIT Seed: 3
Record: 25-11
Conference: Pac-12

vs.

Minnesota Golden Gophers
NIT Seed: 6
Record: 23-14
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Thursday, March 29
Time: 7:00 pm Eastern
Location: New York, NY 

 

 

The National Invitation Tournament final in Madison Square Garden.

     Stanford                           Minnesota

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #40               Strength:        #42
Neutral court:   #39               Neutral court:   #37
Partial Credit:  #47               Partial Credit:  #39

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(p):      #35               Sagarin(p):      #37
Pomeroy:         #38               Pomeroy:         #35
   Offense:  #84                      Offense:  #51
   Defense:  #24                      Defense:  #44
LRMC:            #56*              LRMC:            #72*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #53               2nd half/season: #24
NIT performance: #18               NIT performance: #7

 

Season overview: Stanford (25-11)

• Wins vs. NCAA tournament teams (5): Colorado St.+12, North Carolina St.+4, Colorado+20, @Colorado+24, California+5
  
• Wins vs. NIT teams (4): Cleveland St.+9, Illinois St.+OT, Nevada+18, =Massachusetts+10
  
• Losses to NCAA teams (3): @Syracuse-6, @California-10, =California-6,
  
• Losses to NIT teams (4): @Oregon-11, @Washington-13, Arizona-13, Oregon-4,
  
• Other losses (4): Butler-5, @Washington St.-12, @UCLA-11, @Utah-1

Key Info: Stanford's season was a lot like many Pac-12 members. They had a decent pre-season but without a lot of wins over top teams; instead they beat the likes of Central Arkansas, UC Davis, Pacific, Seattle, San Diego, and Bethune Cookman, leading to a strength of schedule that left their RPI low compared to their 10-2 record. They did beat Colorado State and North Carolina State, two teams that would end up with 11 seeds in the NCAA tournament. And they fared pretty well against Syracuse.

When they got to the Pac-12 season they, like most teams in the conference, seemingly randomly won and lost games. They started out 5-1 but fell to Washington State at the start of a 1-5 stretch. Their last three Pac-12 games say it all: First they beat eventual Pac-12 tourney champ Colorado by 20+ points for the 2nd time; lost to 6-25 Utah; then beat the league's only other NCAA team, Cal, to finish 10-8 in conference. Cal later beat them in the Pac-12 tournament.

Because the Pac-12 was so weak this year, 10-8 and 21-11 didn't even rate them as a bubble team, as it would in most years. But they did get a decent seed in the NIT and got to play Cleveland State, Illinois State, and Nevada at home, which was probably the difference in the Illinois State game. They beat UMass handily to make the final. Freshman guard Chasson Randle leads the team in scoring, with senior forward Josh Owens is #2 and the rebounding leader.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Minnesota (23-14)

• Wins vs. NCAA tournament teams (2): South Dakota St.+15, @Indiana+3
  
• Wins vs. NIT teams (7): Bucknell+12, Northwestern+23, =Northwestern+OT, @La Salle+11, @Miami FL+18, @Middle Tennessee+6, =Washington+OT
  
• Losses to NCAA teams (9): @Michigan-5, Purdue-13, @Michigan St.-16, Wisconsin-OT, Ohio St.-10, Michigan St.-5, Indiana-19, @Wisconsin-7, =Michigan+OT
  
• Losses to NIT teams (4): =Dayton-16, Iowa-2, @Iowa-4, @Northwestern-11 
• Other losses (1): @Illinois-OT

Key Info: Minnesota lost two key players before their strong NIT run, and neither seems to have really affected them. Trevor Mbakwe was the team's leading scorer through the first seven games, but they've long since adjusted to his injury absence. The other loss was Ralph Sampson III, who started 28 games but hasn't played since before the Big Ten tournament. Without him they are 8-1, however, their only loss being an overtime loss to Michigan.

Right now the Gophers are playing by far the best basketball of the season. They only won four straight games twice before. In the first stretch they beat NIT-bound Bucknell and NCAA-bound South Dakota State and four lesser foes. After their first loss to Dayton, they beat Virginia Tech and five cupcakes including 6-26 USC from the Pac-12.

Then came the first of their losing streaks and they started the Big Ten season 0-4. They played their best 3 consecutive games after that, upsetting Indiana, handling Penn State easily on the road, and thrashing Northwestern at home. But they closed the Big Ten by losing six straight, five of those losses to NCAA teams. Beating Nebraska in the season finale (during which they lost Sampson) and defeating Northwestern in overtime in the rubber match in the Big Ten tournament probably saved their NIT bid.

Once in the NIT the Gophers shined, with impressive victories at La Salle, Miami, and Middle Tennessee. Matched against Pac-12 regular season champ Washington, the Gophers took the lead, then saw the Huskies catch up and send the game into overtime. They won by a point as Andre Hollins scored 5 points in the final period and 20 in all. Forward Rodney Williams is the only Gopher that averages in double figures for the year.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Both teams have had rocky seasons, as is typical for NIT teams. But Stanford's season looks closer to an NCAA team than an NIT entrant, as their record and résumé might be that of a 9- or 10-seed in the Big Dance in most years. The trouble is that most of their significant wins were scored in the Pac-12, which has a poor record against other conferences this year.

As expected, though, the Pac-12 did very well in the NIT, placing two teams in the final four. It's telling, however, that Minnesota—who finished tied for 9th in the Big Ten—was essentially an even match for Washington, the #1 Pac-12 team in the standings. Stanford finished 7th in the conference.

The Golden Gophers had some bad stretches playing in what was probably the best conference, top to bottom, this year. It's hard to diagnose their performance—why the three great games in the middle of the season? Why was there no real decline after losing their top scorer early? How have they played better without Ralph Sampson III?—but they are doing well right now for whatever reason.

It's likely that the Big Ten season prepared them well for what they had to do—win three road games against good teams, and then beat a conference champion. Stanford, too, played opposition that challenged them every week, as the Pac-12 had seven teams with winning conference records.

So whatever each team's difficulties during the season, they are playing well right now. Minnesota might be playing a little better. Stanford won their first three NIT games at home, while the Gophers had to go on the road.

Vegas Line:

Pick 'em

Power rating spread

Stanford by  0.2   

% Chance to win

Stanford:    51.4% 
Minnesota:   48.6% 

How even is this matchup? So even that the oddsmakers won't even commit to a favorite. And our Strength power rating gives Stanford an edge of less than 1/2 a point, which essentially says the same thing—that there is no favorite in this game.

Our game-comparison system shows a slight edge for Stanford, with 51.4% of the performance combinations favoring the Cardinal. Many of Stanford's best game ratings came early in the year, however.

Though our Strength rating has Stanford two spots higher, when corrected for projected performance on a neutral court (most teams play more home games and so might be skewed a bit if they have better than normal home performance), Minnesota is a couple of notches ahead. The Gophers also come out ahead in our Partial-Credit system.

The Cardinal are on top in Sagarin's predictor, and in the LRMC. But Minnesota is ahead in Pomeroy's ratings, where they top Stanford in offensive efficiency...but lag them on defense.

In short, a very contradictory bunch of data.

But looking at recent performance, Minnesota gets the edge. Stanford played better overall in the first half of the season, while Minnesota improved in recent months, their 6-game losing streak notwithstanding. And looking at the last 4-6 games, while both teams are doing very well the Gophers have been great. In the last four games—which encompasses each team's NIT run—Minnesota has been playing like the 7th best team in the country, Stanford #18.

Bottom line:  Expect a good game with strong performances from both teams, as they are playing like top 25 squads. Minnesota is a little bit more on fire at present, and our pick tilts to them.

Final prediction:  Minnesota 66, Stanford 62

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

2012 NCAA Tournament Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (2) Kansas vs. (2) Ohio State

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 2 (overall seed #5)
Record: 31-6
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Ohio State Buckeyes
Seed: 2 (overall seed #7)
Record: 31-7
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Saturday, March 31
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA 

 

 

Both of these teams were very strong 2-seeds but just missed out on being top seeds; soon, one of them will be playing for the national championship.

     Kansas                             Ohio State

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #4                Strength:        #2
Neutral court:   #3                Neutral court:   #2
Partial Credit:  #5                Partial Credit:  #2

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(p):      #3                Sagarin(p):      #1
Pomeroy:         #4                Pomeroy:         #2
   Offense:  #16                      Offense:  #7
   Defense:  #4                       Defense:  #2
LRMC:            #3*               LRMC:            #2*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #4                2nd half/season: #2
NCAA tournament: #8                NCAA tournament: #3

Season overview: Kansas (31-6)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =Georgetown+4, South Florida+28, Long Beach St.+8, Ohio St.+11, Kansas St.+18, Iowa St.+9, Baylor+18, @Texas+3, @Baylor+14, @Kansas St.+6, Missouri+OT, Texas+10, =Detroit+15, =Purdue+3, =North Carolina St.+3, =North Carolina+13
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (5): Ohio St.+11, Baylor+18, @Baylor+14, =North Carolina St.+3, =North Carolina+13
  
• Wins vs. Final Four teams (1): Ohio St.+11
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =Kentucky-10, =Duke-7, Davidson-6, @Iowa St.-8, @Missouri-3, Baylor-9
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Thomas Robinson is a national player of the year candidate for Kansas, and indeed was just announced as a unanimous 1st team All-American. He averages 17.9 points per game, just a hair higher than teammate Tyshawn Taylor's 17.3. But he also grabs 11.8 rebounds a game, good enough for #2 in the nation. The Jayhawks rated equally good on defense and offense before the tournament, but their defensive efficiency has increased while they've slid on offense; they are still in the top 25 on both sides of the court.

Kansas lost three non-conference games this year, which is somewhat unusual. They fell to #1 seed Kentucky, #2 seed Duke, and were just 7-3 after Davidson upset them at home. But the Jayhawks righted the ship by going on a 10-game winning streak. They beat 1-seed Ohio State and 3-seed Georgetown in non-conference play, and were 3-2 combined against 2-seed Missouri and 3-seed Baylor.

Robinson had 16 points and 10 rebounds against 15-seed Detroit. In the very close win over Purdue, where the Jayhawks trailed the entire game, Elijah Johnson led with 18 points while Robinson had 13 rebounds. Robinson led against N.C. State with 18. Taylor led against UNC with 22 points despite going 0 for 5 on three pointers; in fact, he is 0-for-17 for the tournament.

In Kansas' earlier game against Ohio State on December 10, Robinson was 7 of 9 for 21 points and Taylor dished out 13 assists as the Jayhawks won 78-67. They were playing at home, however, and the Buckeyes were without Jared Sullinger.

             **************************************************************
 

Season overview: Ohio State (31-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): Florida+7, Duke+22, Lamar+20, Indiana+17, Michigan+15, @Wisconsin+6, Purdue+3, @Michigan St.+2, =Purdue+17, =Michigan+22, =Loyola MD+19, =Gonzaga+7, =Cincinnati+15, =Syracuse+7
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (6): Florida+7, Indiana+17, @Wisconsin+6, @Michigan St.+2, =Cincinnati+15, =Syracuse+7
  
• Wins vs. Final Four teams (0): none
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @Kansas-11, @Indiana-4, Michigan St.-10, @Michigan-5, Wisconsin-3, =Michigan St.-4
• Other losses (1): @Illinois-5

Key Info: For most of the year, Ohio State ranked #1 in our Strength power rating, and was #1 on many other power ratings around the web. This was due to their incredible performance over their first seven games which culminated in a 22 point win over Duke. For the next two they lacked Jared Sullinger and lost to Kansas. After that they hit their early highs at times, but not with the same consistency, and had some lows, too, the lowest probably being the loss to Illinois in January. Eventually, Kentucky caught up with the Buckeyes and overtook them at the #1 position. During the tournament it's become about even again as Ohio State has played very well so far.

Sullinger continued where he left off last year but didn't really add anything to his arsenal, giving teams a better chance to defend him. Still, he basically replicated last year's numbers with 17.6 ppg and 9.2 rebounds and was a first team All-American selection for the 2nd straight year. In the three games he missed or hardly played in, the Buckeyes were worse; with those games excluded, they average out as the #1 team, and maintain a top-2 defense.

The rest of the squad is no slouch, though, with Deshaun Thomas and William Buford averaging a combined 30 points. In fact, against Loyola MD, Thomas had 31 by himself, and Buford added 17 of his own. Thomas had 12 rebounds and Sullinger 11. Sullinger and Thomas both had 18 points against Gonzaga, with point Aaron Craft adding 17 points and 10 assists. Thomas led again with 26 in the Cincinnati win, while Sullinger dropped in 23 with 11 rebounds. And Sullinger had 19 in the win over Syracuse.

So when we look at the previous contest against Kansas, we have to note that Sullinger was absent, and that made a big difference. Without him they score as 11 points worse than they do with him; normally, a 3-game sample doesn't say much and an 11-point difference seems too big for any player, but Sullinger might really be worth that much to his team.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Both 2-seeds knocked off a 1-seed that was short-handed; Syracuse was without center Fab Melo, and North Carolina missed Kendall Marshall. But both of them are deserving of their Final Four berth and either could have been a 1-seed if things had gone slightly differently at the end of the year.

In fact, both are in the top 4 in most power ratings currently, and Ohio State has been in and out of the #1 spot all year.

The teams met 3 1/2 months ago in Lawrence and the Jayhawks gave the Buckeyes their first loss. In that contest Ohio State was the short-handed team, missing their most valuable player, Jared Sullinger.

Vegas Line:

Ohio State by  2 1/2

Power rating spread

Ohio State by  2.7   

% Chance to win

Kansas:          41% 
Ohio State:      59% 

The Buckeyes narrowly outrank Kansas in our power ratings...but they outrank the Jayhawks in pretty much every power rating. There is near-universal agreement that Ohio State has played better—very, very slightly better—than Kansas, on average, this year. They even rank better in both offensive and defensive play. In game-comparisons, the Buckeyes win almost 3/5 of the time despite that very small edge, as it's very consistent.

One of the times in which they did not play better was the first meeting between the teams in December. The Jayhawks won by 11 points; how does that square with our power rating making the Buckeyes a near 3 point favorite?

Actually it squares perfectly. Without Sullinger, Ohio State is 10 points worse than their average in all games, with or without Sullinger. So instead of a 3 point favorite, without Sullinger they'd be a 7 point underdog. Add another 4 points for playing at home and Kansas is an 11-point favorite with Sullinger missing. That is, in fact, how much the Jayhawks won by in Lawrence.

Counting all games, and on a neutral court, the projected result takes a 14-point swing toward the Buckeyes, making OSU a 2 1/2 to 3 point favorite. The Vegas line matches that estimate. If we count only games with Sullinger present—that is, removing the 3 games where he didn't play—Ohio State gains an extra point and become a 4-point favorite by our Strength power rating.

Bottom line: Without Sullinger in the paint, Kansas' own superstar had a field day and led his team to a win. Things are going to be a lot more equal under the bucket this time around, especially on a neutral court. It should be a great clash of two 1st team All-Americans; we favor the Buckeyes to make the title game.

Final prediction:  Ohio State 74, Kansas 70

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

2012 NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) Kentucky vs. (4) Louisville

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 36-2
Conference: SEC

vs.

Louisville Cardinals
Seed: 4
Record: 30-9
Conference: Big East

Date: Saturday, March 31
Time: 6:09 pm Eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA 

 

 

Not just a Final Four game, but a rivalry game, and one featuring Rick Pitino against his old team, and against the same coach he beat in the Final Four in 1996.

     Kentucky                           Louisville

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #1                Strength:        #20
Neutral court:   #1                Neutral court:   #19
Partial Credit:  #1                Partial Credit:  #18

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(p):      #2                Sagarin(p):      #14
Pomeroy:         #1                Pomeroy:         #15
   Offense:  #2                       Offense:  #101
   Defense:  #11                      Defense:  #1
LRMC:            #1*               LRMC:            #23*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #1                2nd half/season: #18
NCAA Tournament: #2                NCAA Tournament:  #5

 

Season overview: Kentucky (36-2)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Loyola MD+24, Lamar+22, Louisville+7, Alabama+6, Florida+20, @Vanderbilt+6, Vanderbilt+9, @Florida+15, =Florida+3, =Western Kentucky+15, =Iowa St.+16, =Indiana+12, =Baylor+12
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (8): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Louisville+7, Florida+20, @Florida+15, =Florida+3, =Indiana+12, =Baylor+12
  
• Wins vs. Final Four teams (2): =Kansas+10, Louisville+7
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @Indiana-1, =Vanderbilt-7
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: What can we say about Kentucky? That they're #1 in the polls, and #1 in nearly every power rating? That they ended the year 32-2 and looked unbeatable—or did, until Vanderbilt became the first SEC team to do the trick. They also seemed unbeatable at 8-0 before Indiana did the trick.

We could go on about Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis (14.3 points, 10 rebounds), or their other super underclassmen Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, all of whom average in double figures. Jones led the team with 22 against Western Kentucky, while freshman guard Marquis Teague had 24 in the Iowa State win.

Among the Sweet Sixteen survivors, they've beaten 1-seed North Carolina, 2-seed Kansas, 4-seed Louisville, and 7-seed Florida three times. The one Sweet Sixteen team they lost to is Indiana, on the road, on a last-second shot; they avenged that with a 102-90 win that was much higher-scoring than the earlier 73-72 loss. Kidd-Gilchrist led with 19 against Baylor while Davis had 11 rebounds as UK reached the Final Four.

Kentucky beat two of the other Final Four teams during the regular season. They topped Kansas 75-65 back in mid-November in Madison Square Garden, and in late December they beat Louisville 69-62 in Lexington. At the time both Kentucky and Louisville were 12-1 and ranked #3 and #4 in the nation.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Louisville (30-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (15): Lamar+20, Ohio+5, Long Beach St.+13, Vanderbilt+OT, Memphis+8, Western Kentucky+10, Connecticut+21, @West Virginia+3, =Marquette+13, =Notre Dame+14, =Cincinnati+6, =Davidson+7, =New Mexico+3, =Michigan St.+13, =Florida+4
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (5): Ohio+5, =Marquette+13, =Cincinnati+6, =Michigan St.+13, =Florida+4
  
• Wins vs. Final Four teams (0): none
• Losses to tournament teams (8): Georgetown-3, @Kentucky-7, Notre Dame-OT, @Marquette-11, Syracuse-1, @Cincinnati-4, South Florida-7, @Syracuse-9
• Other losses (1): @Providence-31

Key Info: For a 4-seed, Louisville has an astonishing number of wins over tournament teams—15 after their three tourney wins. That's a number usually seen with #1 seeds, and indeed, it matches Kentucky's total. True, the Big East placed 9 teams, and five of their six regular season, non-conference wins are over non-major conference foes, but one of those teams (Ohio) made the Sweet Sixteen. The team hit rough patches twice—losing 5 of 7, then 4 of 6—but each time recovered with a string of wins.

They have 8 tourney team losses, too, leaving just one non-tournament loss. That was a 90-59 debacle at Providence that still shows up like a sore thumb on their chart. Other than that oddity, they haven't been any more unpredictable than your average team. They're basically a poor offensive team (Kyle Kuric leads with 13.4 in a "balanced" attack, meaning in this case low-scoring efficiency) with a great defense that carries them. Whether they're able to press and trap or not, they disrupt teams' offenses.

The team's star is point guard Peyton Siva, who we figured would one of the breakout stars of the tournament if Louisville managed a deep run; the Cardinals did manage a deep run, and Siva led with 17 in the Davidson win. Although he had just 6 against New Mexico, two were on a late drive down the middle that broke the Lobos' back and he iced the game with two clutch free throws. He had 9 assists against Michigan State and 8 against Florida.

The Cardinals took things to another level against Michigan State, beating back the Spartans' every comeback attempt and harrassing them with pesky defense. Chane Behanan led in scoring with 15 and had 9 rebounds; big man Gorgui Dieng also had 9 boards and was key on defense with 7 blocked shots. Louisville overcame an 11-point deficit in the last 10 minutes to beat Florida for Rick Pitino's 6th Final Four berth.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Both coaches have been to a lot of Final Fours. Rick Pitino has been there once with Providence, three times with Kentucky, and now twice with Louisville. John Calipari made it with Massachusetts in 1996 (losing to Pitino's Wildcats), in 2008 with Memphis, and the last two seasons with Kentucky. That's 10 times between the two coaches in this game.

Louisville is clearly the overachiever here, given their struggles during two periods of the season. But early in the year the teams were seen as roughly equals, and they played a close game on Kentucky's home court.

Louisville's defense is the key to their success. It ranks as the most efficient in the country, and it will be a far cry from what Kentucky faced against Baylor. In fact, the teams Kentucky faced in the tournament so far rank #127, #58, #62, and #39. Meanwhile Louisville just faced the #3 offense in Florida, so they will be ready for Kentucky's #2 ranked offense.

On the other side of the court, however, Kentucky has a big edge: they play the 11th most efficient defense, while Louisville's offense ranks 101st. In the first game, Russ Smith was nearly all of the Cardinal offense, scoring 30 of their 62 points, while Kentucky had three players in double figures. If Smith has a poor game, Louisville may struggle to score. They'll probably shoot better than the dismal 32% they managed in the first game, but then again Kentucky will probably top their own 30% clip.

The Wildcats may try to speed the game up like they did in their rematch with Indiana. Although the pace of the two games was similar (70 possessions to 73), the first meeting resulted in a 73-72 loss (145 total points), the rematch a 102-90 win (192 total points) with over 20 more field goals attempted. It was also more physical, with Kentucky attempting 20 more free throws the second time around.

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by  8 1/2

Power rating spread

Kentucky by  8.3   

% Chance to win

Kentucky:     73% 
Louisville:   27% 

Kentucky is facing about the same level of team it did against Baylor, but with a very different challenge—the Cardinal defense. But Kentucky also plays good defense; the teams' earlier meeting was defense-driven, with both teams shooting very poorly (a combined 7 of 34 from the 3-point line).

It was also a very physical game, with a total of 70 free throw attempts resulting in 32 of Kentucky's points and 18 of Louisville's. The attempts should be more even this time with the game on a neutral court, but the Wildcats still have the edge, shooting 73% to Louisville's 69% for the year.

The oddsmakers and our Strength power rating both give Kentucky about an 8 point edge; the earlier meeting resulted in a 7 point win for the Wildcats.

Bottom line:  Louisville's defense may give Kentucky problems and should keep the pace slow, but the Cardinals will have their own difficulties on the other end of the court.

Final prediction:  Kentucky 64, Louisville 61

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

2012 NCAA Tournament Performance by Conference at Final Four: Big East out in front

We've reached the Final Four; the Big East won two of its three battles with the Big Ten to take a big lead in conference performance at the Elite Eight, and Louisville reached the Final Four by defeating Florida.

Louisville upset Michigan State and Syracuse edged Wisconsin in Sweet Sixteen matchups, while Ohio State held off Cincinnati to avoid a shutout for the Big Ten. The Buckeyes reached the Final Four with a win over Syracuse, keeping the Big Ten in second place.

The Big 12 is in third place despite losing Missouri, its 2nd highest seed, in a huge first-round upset. Baylor and Kansas were alive in the Sweet Sixteen and both advanced to the Elite Eight, Baylor beating Xavier and Kansas edging North Carolina State. The Jayhawks beat North Carolina to advance to the Final Four.

The SEC advanced two teams to the Elite Eight—Kentucky, who beat Indiana and Florida, who upset Marquette. The Wildcats rounded out the Final Four by beating Baylor. The ACC ended in fifth place, with no teams reaching the Final Four. Like the Big Twelve, it also lost its 2nd-highest seed in a first-round upset by a 15-seed when Duke fell to Lehigh.

In terms of ranking for best overall conference, the Big East has an insurmountable lead. This measure includes a point for each bid, which reflects performance during the season. For best tournament performance (without points for bids) the Big Ten can still catch the Big East if Ohio State wins it all and Louisville doesn't advance into the final.

Here are the standings for Best Conference as ranked by teams in the tournament, and advancement in the tournament, color-coded in ROY G. BIV fashion, with 1 point for each bid and game won (play-in games don't count):

Teams in tourney  Round of 32  Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final Four  Title Game  Champion

Big East               9                      6              4        2   1     
Big Ten            6                5            4      1  1 
Big 12             6              4        2     2   1       
SEC             4         3       2     2   1 
ACC              5           3       2   1     
Atl 10          4        2   1    
Mt West         4      1 
WCC           3     1     
MAC        1  1  1  
MVC          2   1 
Pac-12       2   1      
Col. Ath   1  1 
MEAC       1  1 
Patriot    1  1 
Ohio Val   1  1       
C-USA        2       
Metro Atl    2  

The Atlantic 10 ranks as the best mid-major conference this year, outpacing the Mountain West in the tournament. Both started with four teams, but the Atlantic 10 advanced two teams into the Round of 32 and Xavier moved into the Sweet Sixteen. Of the four Mountain West teams only San Diego State won their opening game. The West Coast Conference placed 3 teams in the tournament but only Gonzaga reached the Round of 32.

The Mid-American Conference had Ohio alive in the Sweet Sixteen and they took North Carolina into overtime before losing. This puts their performance ahead of the Pac-12—normally considered one of the "Big Six"—and mid-major Missouri Valley. The Pac-12 lost California in the play-in game, but Colorado got an upset win to advance to the Round of 32. In the MVC, Wichita State was upset while Creighton survived one round. Later on we'll incorporate NIT performance into the mix which redeems the Pac-12 somewhat.

The Colonial Athletic, MEAC, Patriot, and Ohio Valley all advanced their only teams to the Round of 32, where they all lost. The CAA had VCU who upset Wichita State. But the big upsets came from the MEAC and Patriot, where Norfolk State and Lehigh both upset 2-seeds. The Ohio Valley's Murray State won their first game as expected but lost to Marquette. The C-USA and Metro Atlantic both started with two teams but both lost in the first round; in the Metro Atlantic's case, one was a play-in teams (Iona).

All the other conferences only had one bid, who lost in the first round.

Since conferences with more bids have more opportunity for wins, the chart below better captures Best Tournament Performance, with points awarded solely for tournament wins:

 Round of 32  Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final Four  Title Game  Champion

Big East          6               4        2   1  
Big Ten          5             4      1  1 
Big 12         4         2     2   1      
SEC          3        2     2   1 
ACC          3        2   1     
Atl 10      2    1    
MAC        1  1  
Mt West    1 
WCC        1     
Pac-12     1      
MVC        1 
Col. Ath   1 
MEAC       1 
Patriot    1 
Ohio Val   1       

As we mentioned above, without bids counting as points the race is closer, and the Big Ten can win if the Buckeyes win the national championship. The Big Twelve can finish anywhere from second (if Kansas wins the tournament) to fourth (if Kentucky wins and Kansas loses to Ohio State). Again, with NIT performance added the lower conferences can be differentiated, which we'll do when that tournament is over.

2012 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) North Carolina vs. (2) Kansas

North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 1
Record: 32-5
Conference: ACC

vs.

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 2
Record: 30-6
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Sunday, March 25
Time: 5:05 pm Eastern
Location: St. Louis, MO 
Region: Midwest

 

North Carolina needed overtime to beat Ohio without Kendall Marshall, and it will be a tall order to beat Kansas even if he returns.

     North Carolina                     Kansas

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #4                Strength:        #5
Neutral court:   #4                Neutral court:   #5
Partial Credit:  #4                Partial Credit:  #6

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin:         #4                Sagarin:         #6
Pomeroy:         #7                Pomeroy:         #4
   Offense:  #16                      Offense:  #19
   Defense:  #9                       Defense:  #4
LRMC:            #5*               LRMC:            #3*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #7                2nd half/season: #4
Last 6 games:    #22               Last 6 games:    #25

 

Season overview: North Carolina (32-5)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =Michigan St.+12, @NC Asheville+16, Mississippi Valley St.+26, Wisconsin+3, Long Beach St.+6, Texas+19, North Carolina St.+19, Virginia+18, @North Carolina St.+12, @Virginia+3, @Duke+18, =North Carolina St.+2, Vermont+19, Creighton+14, =Ohio+OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (6): =Michigan St.+12, Wisconsin+3, North Carolina St.+19, @North Carolina St.+12, =North Carolina St.+2, =Ohio+OT
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @Nevada Las Vegas-10, @Kentucky-1, @Florida St.-33, Duke-1, =Florida St.-3
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Pre-season #1 North Carolina lived up to the billing...until they lost to UNLV. They led at pre-season #2 Kentucky most of the game until losing by a point on a blocked shot. They took their frustrations out on Evansville in the next game, winning by nearly 50 points, and continued winning until karma visited them and they were beat down 90-57 at Florida State. They led Duke by 10 with 3 minutes left but lost at home by a point. After winning 9 straight they fell again to FSU in the ACC tournament final, but still got a #1 seed at 29-5. Thanks to North Carolina State's surprise run, they have 5 wins over Sweet Sixteen opponents, having defeated the Wolfpack three times.

Forward Harrison Barnes and 7-footer Ty Zeller lead the team in scoring with 17.4 and 16.5 points per game; they pull down 5.2 and 9.3 rebounds per game apiece, but it's John Henson (#3 in scoring at 13.8) who leads with a whopping 10.1 boards. Henson missed the first game with a wrist injury but returned in the Round of 32, at which time Kendall Marshall injured his wrist and is likely to miss some or all of North Carolina's subsequent games. The Tar Heels lost starter Dexter Strictland (7.5 ppg) in the middle of the season, and with Marshall's loss the team is very weak at the point.

James McAdoo also played well when replacing Henson; he had 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 steals in the Tar Heels' opening win over Vermont. Marshall led with 18 points and 11 assists against Creighton; he averages 9.8 assists per game for the Tar Heels, and the team was very concerned about their prospects without him...and with good reason. North Carolina couldn't put Ohio away until the overtime period; what does that mean against Kansas? A loss, very likely, unless Marshall is able to play; then it becomes about 50/50.

             **************************************************************
 

Season overview: Kansas (30-6)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =Georgetown+4, South Florida+28, Long Beach St.+8, Ohio St.+11, Kansas St.+18, Iowa St.+9, Baylor+18, @Texas+3, @Baylor+14, @Kansas St.+6, Missouri+OT, Texas+10, =Detroit+15, =Purdue+3, =North Carolina St.+3
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (4): Ohio St.+11, Baylor+18, @Baylor+14, =North Carolina St.+3
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =Kentucky-10, =Duke-7, Davidson-6, @Iowa St.-8, @Missouri-3, Baylor-9
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Thomas Robinson is a national player of the year candidate for Kansas. He averages 17.9 points per game, just a hair higher than teammate Tyshawn Taylor's 17.3. But he also grabs 11.8 rebounds a game, good enough for #2 in the nation. The Jayhawks rated equally good on defense and offense before the tournament, but their defensive efficiency has increased while they've slid on offense; they are still in the top 25 on both sides of the court.

Kansas lost three non-conference games this year, which is somewhat unusual. They fell to #1 seed Kentucky, #2 seed Duke, and were just 7-3 when Davidson upset them at home. But the Jayhawks righted the ship by going on a 10-game winning streak. They beat 1-seed Ohio State and 3-seed Georgetown in non-conference play, and were 3-2 combined against 2-seed Missouri and 3-seed Baylor.

Robinson had 16 points and 10 rebounds against 15-seed Detroit. In the very close win over Purdue, where the Jayhawks trailed the entire game, Elijah Johnson led with 18 points while Robinson had 13 rebounds. Robinson led against N.C. State with 18.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Kendall Marshall's injury is again the big topic of their upcoming game.

Marshall averaged nearly 10 assists and 8 points per game, and averaged 15 points in his last 6 games. Backup point guards Justin Watts and Stilman White combined for just 2 points against Ohio. Though they combined for 7 assists (White having 6), that's still a downgrade from Marshall.

Marshall is left-handed and his injury is to his right hand, and he was nearly ready to play against Ohio. After a few days of rest he'll be even closer to ready for Kansas. But it's still looking unlikely. And even if he does, he probably won't be 100%.

The other question is: would North Carolina beat Kansas if Marshall were 100%? That's not clear either. Our power ratings put North Carolina ahead by just a bit, as does Sagarin, while Pomeroy and LRMC have the Jayhawks ahead. It's basically a 50/50 proposition even without the injury speculation. Add in the chance that he doesn't play—fairly high—and the odds suggest Kansas wins in the majority of scenarios.

Vegas Line:

Kansas by  2

Power rating spread

UNC by  0.6

% Chance to win

UNC:       53%
Kansas:    47%

North Carolina isn't even a 1-point favorite before correcting for Marshall's likely absence. The two teams are roughly as strong as each other with a full lineup. Both have played at a lower level during the tournament.

If we were picking this game without considering Marshall, it would be a tough call. But as we said above, it's very close with him, and without him the Tar Heels are at a disadvantage.

Bottom line: We'll base our score on the assumption Marshall doesn't play, and UNC struggles on offense.

Final prediction:  Kansas 74, North Carolina 63

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

2012 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) Kentucky vs. (3) Baylor

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 35-2
Conference: SEC

vs.

Baylor Bears
Seed: 3
Record: 30-7
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Sunday, March 25
Time: 2:20 pm Eastern
Location: Atlanta, GA 
Region: South

 

Kentucky's rich basketball heritage vs. Baylor, a team whose program has been through a lot on their recent climb to success.

     Kentucky                           Baylor

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #1                Strength:        #15
Neutral court:   #1                Neutral court:   #14
Partial Credit:  #1                Partial Credit:  #12

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin:         #2                Sagarin:         #16
Pomeroy:         #1                Pomeroy:         #17
   Offense:  #2                       Offense:  #10
   Defense:  #12                      Defense:  #39
LRMC:            #1*               LRMC:            #17*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #1                2nd half/season: #13
Last 6 games:    #11               Last 6 games:    #9

 

Season overview: Kentucky (35-2)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Loyola MD+24, Lamar+22, Louisville+7, Alabama+6, Florida+20, @Vanderbilt+6, Vanderbilt+9, @Florida+15, =Florida+3, =Western Kentucky+15, =Iowa St.+16, =Indiana+12
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (7): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Louisville+7, Florida+20, @Florida+15, =Florida+3, =Indiana+12
  
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @Indiana-1, =Vanderbilt-7
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: What can we say about Kentucky? That they're #1 in the polls, and #1 in nearly every power rating? That they ended the year 32-2 and looked unbeatable—or did, until Vanderbilt became the first SEC team to do the trick. They also seemed unbeatable at 8-0 before Indiana did the trick.

We could go on about Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis (14.3 points, 10 rebounds), or their other super underclassmen Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, all of whom average in double figures. Jones led the team with 22 against Western Kentucky, while freshman guard Marquis Teague had 24 in the Iowa State win.

Among the Sweet Sixteen survivors, they've beaten 1-seed North Carolina, 2-seed Kansas, 4-seed Louisville, and 7-seed Florida three times. The one Sweet Sixteen team they've lost to is Indiana, on the road, on a last-second shot; they avenged that with a 102-90 win that was much faster-paced than the earlier 73-72 loss.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Baylor (30-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): San Diego St.+10, @Brigham Young+3, =St. Mary's+13, =West Virginia+OT, @Kansas St.+2, Texas+5, Iowa St.+15, @Texas+5, =Kansas St.+8, @Kansas+9, =South Dakota St.+8, =Colorado+17, =Xavier+5
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (2): @Kansas+9, =Xavier+5
  
• Losses to tournament teams (7): @Kansas-18, Missouri-1, Kansas-14, @Missouri-15, Kansas St.-1, @Iowa St.-8, =Missouri-15
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: For a while this season, Baylor looked like an easy to diagnose team, following two simple rules. 1) They could—and did—beat everyone except the elite of the Big Twelve, Kansas and Missouri. 2) They would beat everyone below that level. The Bears were 22-4 with losses to Kansas and Missouri, twice each. Before the regular season was over, point #2 was proven wrong as they fell to Kansas State and Iowa State. Then, in the Big Twelve tournament, they proved point #1 wrong by beating Kansas. They still lost to Missouri for a third time, however.

Perry Jones III is the driving force behind the team, averaging 14 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Baylor's power ratings actually skew a little bit low due to the early games he missed, and they're in the top ten in the nation when he's with them. When he plays well they're nearly unstoppable, but he was held to 5 or fewer points in three of the Bears' losses.

Against South Dakota State, Perry Jones had only 2 points as the Bears struggled to dispatch the Jackrabbits, though he did have 11 rebounds. He scored only 7 against Colorado but the Bears won easily. It's encouraging that Baylor could win so easily without a big contribution from Jones, but his 4 rebounds against the Buffaloes suggests he's in a slump. He broke out of it to some extent with 14 points on 7 of 8 shooting against Xavier.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Kentucky should beat Baylor; they have a talent advantage and the Bears don't have any stylistic or matchup edge that can even the gap. The only thing that could turn the tide is hunger, and you could argue that as a program, Baylor is a lot hungrier for Final Four success than Kentucky.

The Wildcats want to win a championship for coach Calipari, so they may have some extra motivation, too. But Baylor clearly has the hunger advantage. Could it be enough to get a win? Kentucky might have a bit of a letdown after getting revenge on Indiana, too.

Looking at their numbers, defense is a problem for Baylor, and defending against Kentucky is a tall task even for a great defensive team. Also, Perry Jones III has struggled during the tournament and he's got his toughest assignment yet competing against the likes of Anthony Davis.

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by  7

Power rating spread

Kentucky by  7.3   

% Chance to win

Kentucky:    74% 
Baylor:      26% 

It's a pretty clean sweep for Kentucky in about every category. Baylor has played better in the last 6 games, but Kentucky's been playing better as the tournament progresses. Baylor's only chance is to play like their lives are at stake.

Bottom line: Unless Baylor comes out of the gate on fire and Kentucky flat, the Wildcats advance to the Final Four.

Final prediction:  Kentucky 75, Baylor 68

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

2012 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) Syracuse vs. (2) Ohio State

Syracuse Orange
Seed: 1
Record: 34-2
Conference: Big East

vs.

Ohio State Buckeyes
Seed: 2
Record: 30-7
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Saturday, March 24
Time: 7:05 pm Eastern
Location: Boston, MA 
Region: East

 

These are the matchups that are supposed to happen, when all goes according to plan: The #1 seed vs. the #2 seed.

     Syracuse                           Ohio State

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #6                Strength:        #1
Neutral court:   #6                Neutral court:   #2
Partial Credit:  #6                Partial Credit:  #2

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(p):      #6                Sagarin(p):      #1
Pomeroy:         #6                Pomeroy:         #2
   Offense:  #6                       Offense:  #7
   Defense:  #17                      Defense:  #2
LRMC:            #8*               LRMC:            #2*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #8                2nd half/season: #3
Last 6 games:    #17               Last 6 games:    #1
Injury adj:      #11               Injury adj:      #1
Consistency:     #16               Consistency:     #97

 

Season overview: Syracuse (34-2)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (15): Florida+4, @North Carolina St.+16, Marquette+7, @Cincinnati+7, West Virginia+2, Georgetown+OT, Connecticut+18, @Louisville+1, South Florida+8, @Connecticut+2, Louisville+9, =Connecticut+3, =UNC Asheville+7, =Kansas St.+16, =Wisconsin+1
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (7): Florida+4, @North Carolina St.+16, Marquette+7, @Cincinnati+7, @Louisville+1, Louisville+9, =Wisconsin+1
  
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @Notre Dame-9, =Cincinnati-3
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Syracuse spent most of the year at #2 in the polls, but power ratings tend to have them around #6 or so. But their consistency of play is such that they win with regularity where some higher-ranked teams stumble and have more off-games. Syracuse stumbled only twice: once when they were without center Fab Melo, and the other time in the Big East tournament, when they looked rather unconcerned that they might lose—leading me to think that Boeheim wanted to rest them before the Big Dance.

The Orange have balanced scoring, with reserves Dion Waiters and C.J. Fair among their top four in points per game. On defense, Melo averages 3 blocks per game. Melo was ruled ineligible for the NCAA tournament and as noted by broadcasters ad infinitum, the Orange are much worse in the (very small) sample of games played without him. The UNC Asheville game only reinforced the premise that he's a key component, as a full-strength Orange squad should have had no problem with the Bulldogs.

The five-game sample without Melo now includes three NCAA wins—one awful, one solid, and one just good enough. The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in a different order. Games 21 through 23 and 34-36 are the non-Melo games. According to the chart they played roughly the same against Asheville than they did against Cincinnati in the prior game. But the Kansas State win, as well as game 22—a 60-53 win at Cincinnati—were two of their better games, and although they had trouble they found a way to win against Wisconsin like they've done all year. The real test comes against Ohio State; if they can beat the Buckeyes, there's no reason to think they can't win it all, Melo or no.

             **************************************************************
 

Season overview: Ohio State (30-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): Florida+7, Duke+22, Lamar+20, Indiana+17, Michigan+15, @Wisconsin+6, Purdue+3, @Michigan St.+2, =Purdue+17, =Michigan+22, =Loyola MD+19, =Gonzaga+7, =Cincinnati+15
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (5): Florida+7, Indiana+17, @Wisconsin+6, @Michigan St.+2, =Cincinnati+15
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @Kansas-11, @Indiana-4, Michigan St.-10, @Michigan-5, Wisconsin-3, =Michigan St.-4
• Other losses (1): @Illinois-5

Key Info: For most of the year, Ohio State ranked #1 in our Strength power rating, and was #1 on many other power ratings around the web. This was due to their incredible performance over their first seven games which culminated in a 22 point win over Duke. For the next two they lacked Jared Sullinger and lost to Kansas. After that they hit their early highs at times, but not with the same consistency, and had some lows, too, the lowest probably being the loss to Illinois in January. Eventually, Kentucky caught up with the Buckeyes and overtook them at the #1 position. During the tournament it's become about even again as Ohio State has played very well so far.

Sullinger continued where he left off last year but didn't really add anything to his arsenal, giving teams a better chance to defend him. Still, he basically replicated last year's numbers with 17.6 ppg and 9.2 rebounds. In the three games he missed or hardly played in, the Buckeyes were worse; with those games excluded, they average out as the #1 team, and maintain a top-2 defense.

The rest of the squad is no slouch, though, with Deshaun Thomas and William Buford averaging a combined 30 points. In fact, against Loyola MD, Thomas had 31 by himself, and Buford added 17 of his own. Thomas had 12 rebounds and Sullinger 11. Sullinger and Thomas both had 18 points against Gonzaga, with point Aaron Craft adding 17 points and 10 assists. Thomas led again with 26 in the Cincinnati win, while Sullinger dropped in 23 with 11 rebounds.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: How has Syracuse done it? They only rank as the #6 team in the country yet they have the best record, against a very tough schedule. Seems that only a team that ranks at the very top—say, Kentucky, who matches their win-loss record—would have that kind of success. The odds suggest that Syracuse should have at least a few more losses. After all, even Ohio State, who outrates the Orange, have 7 losses.

The secret is that Syracuse is one of the most consistent teams in the country, rating #16 out of 345 for the lowest deviation between their performances. So they don't have the "bad" games most teams do, and avoid the upsets that plague other teams from time to time. The Orange do a lot it seems, which is remarkable. It could be good coaching. Good team + good consistency + good coaching is a good recipe for success in the NCAA tournament. The Orange are so consistent that even when they are without their starting center, they continue to play almost as well—almost—as they do without him.

The problem with being consistent is that when you're facing a team that is probably better than you, you will probably lose. Ohio State is the first team that's clearly outrated them (Wisconsin was neck-and-neck, resulting in a neck-and-neck game). And after downgrading them just a bit for missing Melo, the Orange have to be considered underdogs.

Of course, Ohio State isn't quite as consistent (though they're above average at #97), so maybe the Buckeyes will have one of their off days. After all, if they'd played as well as they rank all the time, they'd have just two losses right now. Those five additional losses had to come from somewhere.

Vegas Line:

Ohio State by  3

Power rating spread

Ohio State by  3.2   no-MELO: Ohio St by 7.3   

% Chance to win

Syracuse:        39%  no-MELO: 28%
Ohio State:      61%           72%

The Buckeyes are one of the few teams that outrank Syracuse across the power rating spectrum. Nearly everyone considers them a better team, regardless of the fact that Syracuse wins more games. The Orange don't dominate, and when it comes to the biggest challenges they might not be able to reach the necessary heights. The oddsmakers make the Buckeyes a 3-point favorite.

Bottom line: Ohio State is the better team, but Syracuse is better at winning games. So what happens? These teams are very consistent within our Strength power rating system, so we'll trust those results. Melo's absence—although it hasn't knocked them off yet—is just further justification as they go to face Jared Sullinger.

Final prediction:  Ohio State 72, Syracuse 67

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

2012 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (4) Louisville vs. (7) Florida

Louisville Cardinals
Seed: 4
Record: 29-9
Conference: Big East

vs.

Florida Gators
Seed: 7
Record: 26-10
Conference: SEC

Date: Saturday, March 24
Time: 4:30 pm Eastern
Location: Phoenix, AZ 
Region: West

 

Unlike the day's other Elite Eight matchup, this one features two Elite Eight longshots.

     Louisville                         Florida

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #20               Strength:        #11
Neutral court:   #20               Neutral court:   #11
Partial Credit:  #18               Partial Credit:  #10

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(p):      #17               Sagarin(p):       #8
Pomeroy:         #17               Pomeroy:         #12
   Offense:  #107                     Offense:  #3
   Defense:  #1                       Defense:  #63
LRMC:            #23*              LRMC:            #22*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #20               2nd half/season: #12
Last 6 games:    #2                Last 6 games:    #4 
Injury adj:      #20               Injury adj:      #10
Consistency:     #226              Consistency:     #270

 

Season overview: Louisville (29-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): Lamar+20, Ohio+5, Long Beach St.+13, Vanderbilt+OT, Memphis+8, Western Kentucky+10, Connecticut+21, @West Virginia+3, =Marquette+13, =Notre Dame+14, =Cincinnati+6, =Davidson+7, =New Mexico+3, =Michigan St.+13
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams: (4): Ohio+5, =Marquette+13, =Cincinnati+6, =Michigan St.+13
  
• Losses to tournament teams (8): Georgetown-3, @Kentucky-7, Notre Dame-OT, @Marquette-11, Syracuse-1, @Cincinnati-4, South Florida-7, @Syracuse-9
• Other losses (1): @Providence-31

Key Info: For a 4-seed, Louisville has an astonishing number of wins over tournament teams—14 after their three tourney wins. That's a number usually seen with #1 seeds. True, the Big East placed 9 teams, and five of their six regular season, non-conference wins are over non-major conference foes, but one of those teams (Ohio) is now in the Sweet Sixteen. The team hit rough patches twice—losing 5 of 7, then 4 of 6—but each time recovered with a string of wins.

They have 8 tourney team losses, too, leaving just one non-tournament loss. That was a 90-59 debacle at Providence that still shows up like a sore thumb on their chart. Other than that oddity, they haven't been any more unpredictable than your average team. They're basically a poor offensive team (Kyle Kuric leads with 13.4 in a "balanced" attack, meaning in this case low-scoring efficiency) with a great defense that carries them. Whether they're able to press and trap or not, they disrupt teams' offenses.

The team's star is point guard Peyton Siva, who will be one of the breakout stars of the tournament if Louisville manages a deep run; he was named the MVP of the Big East tournament. Siva led with 17 in the Davidson win, and although he had just 6 against New Mexico, two were on a late drive down the middle that broke the Lobos' back and he iced the game with two clutch free throws. Russ Smith had 17 points in that win.

The Cardinals took things to another level against Michigan State, beating back the Spartans' every comeback attempt and harrassing them with pesky defense. Chane Behanan led in scoring with 15 and had 9 rebounds; big man Gorgui Dieng also had 9 boards and was key on defense with 7 blocked shots.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Florida (26-10)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): Mississippi Valley St.+28, Florida St.+18, Vanderbilt+8, @Alabama+9, =Alabama+3, =Virginia+26, =Norfolk St.+34, =Marquette+10
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): =Marquette+10
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @Ohio St.-7, @Syracuse-4, @Kentucky-20, @Vanderbilt-10, Kentucky-15, =Kentucky-3
• Other losses (4): @Rutgers-OT, @Tennessee-11, Tennessee-5, @Georgia-14

Key Info: Florida was 19-4 in early February but finished 4-6, including a 1-4 finish without injured part-time-starter Will Yeguete, a forward who didn't score a lot but averaged 6.3 rebounds per game. Florida has six players that score more than he does, including five that average in double figures, with guards Kenny Boynton and Bradley Beal combining for 30 points per game. That makes their offense one of the very best in the country.

Normally a great 3-point shooting team, Florida went cold recently which led to their losses. Still, they nearly beat Kentucky before falling 74-71 in the SEC tournament. Their cold shooting continued against Virginia as they hit just 4 of 23 threes. But they held Virginia to 3 of 18 while the Gators made an incredible 24 of 30 two-point baskets (80%). Against Norfolk State they held Kyle O'Quinn to just 4 points and they again shot the lights out from 2-point range making 72%. They beat Marquette without their 3-pointers, too, shooting just 27%. But Beal hit 3 of his 5 attempts en route to a 21-point performance that paced the team.

             **************************************************************
 

Game Analysis: It's offense vs. defense, in a big way. Florida plays nearly the best offense in the land and Louisville now has arguably the best defense. Which prevails?

It's important to note that both these teams got here because they're more prone to volatility in their range of performance than most teams, and so far during the tournament that has manifested on the upside. So no matter who is established as the favorite, that team might have a "down" day and the other an "up" day and it's a blowout in the opposite direction.

They say defense wins championships. That's true, but so does offense. The balance of the two is most important and for the season, Florida is a slightly better team despite their lower seed. Their defense isn't great, but it outclasses Louisville's offense by quite a bit, while Florida's O is roughly even with Louisville's defensive play.

We'd like to say we looked at matchups, analyzed players by position, thought about how Louisville's press and pressure will impact Florida's ball handlers and offensive schemes, and estimated who had the psychological edge in the meeting between mentor and student coaching on the sidelines. But that's not true. Instead we're going with the Pomeroy Principle (or whatever you want to call the theory that follows).

At some point a few years ago Ken Pomeroy looked at his tempo-free offensive and defensive rankings and noted that during the span of the data (6 years at the time?) no team with a defensive ranking below #25 had made the Final Four. I think West Virginia technically broke that rule the very next year, but they were close before the tournament and by the Elite Eight they qualified. Florida doesn't come close to qualifying. That means we're going with defense, and Louisville.

Further, Florida benefitted from playing a 15-seed in round two as well as an down-on-luck 10-seed in round one. Louisville played a tough New Mexico team and #1 seed Michigan State. So although Florida's recent performance ranks #4, Louisville's is #2. The teams are essentially even currently, which means we can feel okay about using a data-based "law" to pick our winner among two teams that aren't supposed to have come this far.

Vegas Line:

Florida by  1 1/2

Power rating spread

Florida by  2.5   

% Chance to win

Louisville:  45.6%
Florida:     54.4%

Given a full-seasons' worth of data, our power rating picks Florida. So do the oddsmakers. And we're picking the other team.

Bottom Line: Unless Florida's 3-point shooting comes back to life suddenly—less likely against Louisville's defense—the Cardinals are our favorite.

Final prediction:  Louisville 68, Florida 66

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

2012 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (2) Kansas vs. (11) North Carolina State

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 2
Record: 29-6
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

North Carolina State Wolfpack
Seed: 11
Record: 24-12
Conference: ACC

Date: Friday, March 23
Time: 10:17 pm Eastern
Location: St. Louis, MO 
Region: Midwest

 

Kansas hasn't yet faced a single-digit seed, and now faces 11-seed North Carolina State.

     Kansas                             Purdue

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #5                Strength:        #36
Neutral court:   #5                Neutral court:   #32
Partial Credit:  #5                Partial Credit:  #42

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin:         #5                Sagarin:         #35
Pomeroy:         #4                Pomeroy:         #36
   Offense:  #16                      Offense:  #27
   Defense:  #5                       Defense:  #72
LRMC:            #3*               LRMC:            #51*
(LMRC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #4                2nd half/season: #33
Last 6 games:    #24               Last 6 games:    #10
Injury adj:      #5                Injury adj:      #39
Consistency:     #99               Consistency:     #220 

 

Season overview: Kansas (29-6)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =Georgetown+4, South Florida+28, Long Beach St.+8, Ohio St.+11, Kansas St.+18, Iowa St.+9, Baylor+18, @Texas+3, @Baylor+14, @Kansas St.+6, Missouri+OT, Texas+10, =Detroit+15, =Purdue+3
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (3): Ohio St.+11, Baylor+18, @Baylor+14
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =Kentucky-10, =Duke-7, Davidson-6, @Iowa St.-8, @Missouri-3, Baylor-9
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Thomas Robinson is a national player of the year candidate for Kansas. He averages 17.9 points per game, just a hair higher than teammate Tyshawn Taylor's 17.3. But he also grabs 11.8 rebounds a game, good enough for #2 in the nation. The Jayhawks rated equally good on defense and offense before the tournament, but their defensive efficiency has increased while they've slid on offense; they are still in the top 25 on both sides of the court.

Kansas lost three non-conference games this year, which is somewhat unusual. They fell to #1 seed Kentucky, #2 seed Duke, and were just 7-3 when Davidson upset them at home. But the Jayhawks righted the ship by going on a 10-game winning streak. They beat 1-seed Ohio State and 3-seed Georgetown in non-conference play, and were 3-2 combined against 2-seed Missouri and 3-seed Baylor.

Robinson had 16 points and 10 rebounds against 15-seed Detroit. In the very close win over Purdue, where the Jayhawks trailed the entire game, Elijah Johnson led with 18 points while Robinson had 13 rebounds.

             **************************************************************
 

Season overview: North Carolina State (24-12)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): NC Asheville+9, =Texas+3, @St. Bonaventure+2, =Virginia+3, =San Diego State+14, =Georgetown+3
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (0): none
• Losses to tournament teams (9): =Vanderbilt-7, Indiana-11, Syracuse-16, @North Carolina-19, Virginia-1, @Duke-5, Florida St.-14, North Carolina-12, =North Carolina-2
• Other losses (3): @Stanford-4, Georgia Tech-11, @Clemson-OT

Key Info: The Wolfpack followed up their worst game (an 11-point home loss to Georgia Tech) with their best game (a 76-40 thrashing of Wake Forest on the road). Since that aberration they've played a lot more consistently despite a four-game losing streak that was followed by a four-game winning streak. One thing NC State didn't have is a big win. They beat a 16-seed, an 11-seed, a 14-seed, and a 10-seed, and lost to a slew of top-5 seeds from the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, and Big East. They got their first really big win of the season when they topped 3-seed Georgetown, 66-63. They still have no wins over the field in the Sweet Sixteen, however.

Two 6' 8" forwards drive the offense. Sophomore forward C.J. Leslie (210 lbs.) is the finesse, with 14.6 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, while Richard Howell (250 lbs.) is the force (10.7 points, 9.3 rebounds). From the outside, three others average in double figures including Lorenzo Brown who dishes out 6.4 assists per game, giving the Wolfpack a formidable offense. Howell had 22 in the San Diego State win while three players including Leslie had 14 against Georgetown.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis:  Once again, Kansas faces a double-digit-seeded foe that they should beat, outclassing them in every way over the course of the season. Kansas ranks higher in every poll and power rating, and has beaten far more tournament teams and Sweet Sixteen teams than the Wolfpack.

But as we mentioned in the Purdue review, the Jayhawks appear to be slumping late in the year, ever so slightly. It showed against Purdue where they were behind the entire 2nd half until Boilermaker mistakes bailed them out. Meanwhile North Carolina State is playing their best basketball, and got their best win over Georgetown.

The slope of each team's 9 or 10 pervious game performances suggest an upward trend for N.C. State and a downward trajectory for the Jayhawks. Both are fairly pronounced. Is it just randomness in the data or do these trends really reflect something?

Vegas Line:

Kansas by   8

Power rating spread

Kansas by   9.0   

% Chance to win

Kansas:     76% 
NC State:   24% 

The full-season power ratings naturally give the game to Kansas in 3/4 of the cases, and with a near-10 point spread. The question is how much Kansas is slumping and how hot North Carolina State is. Is it enough to predict the upset?

Bottom line: Kansas managed to get past Purdue, another low-seeded team playing with intensity. We were loathe to pick against Kansas again but North Carolina State is much hotter than Purdue was and an upset here makes even more sense.

Final prediction:  North Carolina State 67, Kansas 66

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

2012 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) Kentucky vs. (4) Indiana

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 34-2
Conference: SEC

vs.

Indiana Hoosiers
Seed: 4
Record: 27-8
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Friday, March 23
Time: 9:45 pm Eastern
Location: Atlanta, GA 
Region: South

 

Indiana beat Kentucky on a last-second three-pointer back in early December. The Wildcats will be out for revenge.

     Kentucky                           Indiana

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #1                Strength:        #9
Neutral court:   #1                Neutral court:   #10
Partial Credit:  #1                Partial Credit:  #9

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin:         #2                Sagarin:         #9
Pomeroy:         #1                Pomeroy:         #11
   Offense:  #2                       Offense:  #4
   Defense:  #9                       Defense:  #46
LRMC:            #1*               LRMC:            #11*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #1                2nd half/season: #19
Last 6 games:    #8                Last 6 games:    #14
Injury adj:      #2                Injury adj:      #18
Consistency:     #70               Consistency:     #167

 

Season overview: Kentucky (34-2)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Loyola MD+24, Lamar+22, Louisville+7, Alabama+6, Florida+20, @Vanderbilt+6, Vanderbilt+9, @Florida+15, =Florida+3, =Western Kentucky+15, =Iowa St.+16
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (6): =Kansas+10, North Carolina+1, Louisville+7, Florida+20, @Florida+15, =Florida+3
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @Indiana-1, =Vanderbilt-7
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: What can we say about Kentucky? That they're #1 in the polls, and #1 in nearly every power rating? That they ended the year 32-2 and looked unbeatable—or did, until Vanderbilt became the first SEC team to do the trick. They also seemed unbeatable at 8-0 before Indiana did the trick.

We could go on about Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis (14.3 points, 10 rebounds), or their other super underclassmen Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, all of whom average in double figures. Jones led the team with 22 against Western Kentucky, while freshman guard Marquis Teague had 24 in the Iowa State win.

Among the Sweet Sixteen survivors, they've beaten 1-seed North Carolina, 2-seed Kansas, 4-seed Louisville, and 7-seed Florida three times. The one Sweet Sixteen team they've lost to is Indiana, on the road, on a last-second shot.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Indiana (27-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): @North Carolina St.+11, Kentucky+1, =Notre Dame+11, Ohio St.+4, Michigan+2, @Purdue+17, Michigan St.+15, Purdue+11, =New Mexico St.+13, =Virginia Commonwealth+2
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (4): @North Carolina St.+11, Kentucky+1, Ohio St.+4, Michigan St.+15
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @Michigan St.-15, @Ohio St.-17, @Wisconsin-7, @Michigan-12, Wisconsin-8
• Other losses (3): Minnesota-3, @Nebraska-1, @Iowa-12

Key Info: Indiana finally put it all back together this year under Tom Crean, starting the season with a 12-game winning streak that included a victory over Kentucky, and surviving a tough mid-season slog to finish strong. Indiana beat two 1-seeds (Kentucky, Michigan State) and a 2-seed (Ohio State), all of whom reached the Sweet Sixteeen along with North Carolina State. They also lost to three non-tournament teams.

The Hoosiers kill you inside and out. From the outside, they hit 42% of their threes. Inside, 7-0" freshman Cody Zeller lived up to the family name and led the team in scoring with 15.5 per game and rebounding with 6.4. Four other Hoosiers averaged double figures, and none are seniors. They did lose senior guard Verdell Jones III (7.5 ppg) in their last Big Ten tournament win against Penn State, and they rank lower when he's out.

So far they've done well enough. Jordan Hulls had 22 against New Mexico State, and Zellar had 16 points and 13 rebounds in the nail-biter VCU win.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Kentucky ranks #1 in most power ratings, while Indiana trades around #10. Correct for Verdell Jones' absence and Indiana falls to #18. But look at the last 6 games and it's pretty close, with Kentucky #8 and Indiana #14.

But none of that should matter in this game. The two teams have faced each other before and the outcome was in doubt before the final buzzer. By that standard, it should be a very close game, but if Kentucky is bent on revenge that might not be the case.

The one thing no one seems to be considering is the chance of a blowout Indiana win. The Hoosiers did hold big leads in the first game, and it would be the kind of unexpected result March Madness produces routinely. It's hard to envision the possibility as it would be truly unexpected; common sense dictates that if the Hoosiers win, they win another close game.

Indiana won by a point at home, so on a neutral court that translates to a close loss—in most cases. When you look at conference home and road games, swings of 20+ points are commonplace and rivalry games are often similar. We think the change to a neutral court, plus the outcome of the last game—one of Kentucky's only two defeats—gives the Wildcats a huge edge.

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by  9

Power rating spread

Kentucky by  5.2   

% Chance to win

Kentucky:    65% 
Indiana:     35% 

Indiana has held a high ranking in the Strength power rating all year, while Kentucky climbed to #1 last month. With both teams in the top ten, about a 5-point spread is projected, and Kentucky has about a 2/3 chance to win. This does jibe with the fact that Indiana, given about a 4-point home edge, would be close enough to have a chance to win with a buzzer-beater that is essentially a random outcome.

The oddsmakers have Kentucky by 9. This suggest that they consider that either the Wildcats have revenge on their minds, or that they are taking this game much more seriously than the first one since it's do or die time in the tournament. Indiana treated the first game like D-day and won't have that same atmosphere from a split crowd. Like we mentioned, a 20 point home-to-road swing is common in conference games; so a 1-point road loss turning into a nine-point neutral court win is a perfectly sensible expectation.

Bottom line: We have the feeling that the swing goes even farther, and take Kentucky in a blowout.

Final prediction:  Kentucky 83, Indiana 62

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

2012 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) North Carolina vs. (13) Ohio

North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 1
Record: 31-5
Conference: ACC

vs.

Ohio Bobcats
Seed: 13
Record: 29-7
Conference: MAC

Date: Friday, March 23
Time: 5:15 pm Eastern
Location: St. Louis, MO 
Region: Midwest

 

North Carolina lost point guard Kendall Marshall, leaving them in reported disarray heading into the Sweet Sixteen. How much will it matter against 13-seed Ohio?

     North Carolina                     Ohio

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #4                Strength:        #76
Neutral court:   #4                Neutral court:   #72
Partial Credit:  #4                Partial Credit:  #72

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin:         #4                Sagarin:         #60
Pomeroy:         #6                Pomeroy:         #63
   Offense:  #13                      Offense:  #89
   Defense:  #11                      Defense:  #47
LRMC:            #5*               LRMC:            #66*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #5                2nd half/season: #58
Last 6 games:    #4                Last 6 games:    #43
Injury adj:      #4**              Injury adj:      #76 
Consistency:     #281              Consistency:     #287

 

Season overview: North Carolina (31-5)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =Michigan St.+12, @NC Asheville+16, Mississippi Valley St.+26, Wisconsin+3, Long Beach St.+6, Texas+19, North Carolina St.+19, Virginia+18, @North Carolina St.+12, @Virginia+3, @Duke+18, =North Carolina St.+2, Vermont+19, Creighton+14
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (5): =Michigan St.+12, Wisconsin+3, North Carolina St.+19, @North Carolina St.+12, =North Carolina St.+2
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @Nevada Las Vegas-10, @Kentucky-1, @Florida St.-33, Duke-1, =Florida St.-3
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Pre-season #1 North Carolina lived up to the billing...until they lost to UNLV. They led at pre-season #2 Kentucky most of the game until losing by a point on a blocked shot. They took their frustrations out on Evansville in the next game, winning by nearly 50 points, and continued winning until karma visited them and they were beat down 90-57 at Florida State. They led Duke by 10 with 3 minutes left but lost at home by a point. After winning 9 straight they fell again to FSU in the ACC tournament final, but still got a #1 seed at 29-5. Thanks to North Carolina State's surprise run, they have 5 wins over Sweet Sixteen opponents, having defeated the Wolfpack three times.

Forward Harrison Barnes and 7-footer Ty Zeller lead the team in scoring with 17.4 and 16.5 points per game; they pull down 5.2 and 9.3 rebounds per game apiece, but it's John Henson (#3 in scoring at 13.8) who leads with a whopping 10.1 boards. Henson missed the first game with a wrist injury but returned in the Round of 32, at which time Kendall Marshall injured his wrist and is likely to miss some or all of North Carolina's subsequent games. The Tar Heels lost starter Dexter Strictland (7.5 ppg) in the middle of the season, and with Marshall's loss the team is very weak at the point.

James McAdoo also played well when replacing Henson; he had 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 steals in the Tar Heels' opening win over Vermont. Marshall led with 18 points and 11 assists against Creighton; he averages 9.8 assists per game for the Tar Heels, and the team was very concerned about their prospects without him.

             **************************************************************
 

Season overview: Ohio (29-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (4): Lamar+OT, NC Asheville+19, =Michigan+5, =South Florida+6
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (0): none
• Losses to tournament teams (1): @Louisville-5
• Other losses (6): Robert Morris-3, @Bowling Green-10, @Akron-5, @Toledo-4, @Eastern Michigan-13, @Kent St.-7

Key Info: Stare at these charts long enough and you see patterns. Ohio seems to play games in bunches: a bunch of good games here, a bunch of bad ones there. Mediocre in the middle of the season (19 through 22, all single-digit MAC wins), they had four excellent games near the end (double-digit MAC wins and a Bracketbusters victory over UNC Asheville), then had a bunch of "pretty good" games while winning the MAC tournament title.

The Bobcats are good on defense but less so on offense. D.J. Cooper is a solid point guard, though, leading the team in scoring (14.6 ppg) while averaging 5.7 assists and 3.8 rebounds. Next is Walter Offutt at 11.7, followed by forwards Reggie Keely and Ivo Baltic who combine for 10 rebounds per contest. Cooper led the team with 21 points against the Wolverines. Offut had 21 and Cooper 19 against South Florida.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Kendall Marshall's injury undoubtedly hurts the team's championship and even Final Four prospects. But how much does it harm their Elite Eight chances?

Since he's played every game for the Tar Heels, there is no way to make a simplistic comparison of their performance with and without him, but some points are clear. The main effect of his absence will be on offense. He is credited by teammates and observers with being the catalyst that makes the offense run smoothly, averaging nearly 10 assists per game. He's also their 2nd leading scorer in the tournament so far, and has averaged almost 15 points in their last 6 games.

The inexperience of his backups is the other problem. Senior Justin Watts and freshman Stilman White combine to play an average of 11 minutes per game, normally cleanup time, too. They combined for 2 points against Creighton.

However, very few if any players are worth 13 points to their team. That's how much you'd have to deduct to make North Carolina even with Ohio. For future games, Marshall's absence will definitely hurt the team enough to put a win in danger or make the Tar Heels the underdog. But they should still overcome the 13-seed Bobcats given the overall disparity in talent. The Bobcats boast a talented point guard in Cooper who will be a tough defensive assignment for UNC, but they've been a two-man show on offense that North Carolina's solid defense ought to handle.

And despite these concerns, Marshall is left-handed; his injury is to his right hand. There's still a chance could play against Ohio or in any subsequent games the Tar Heels play in the tournament.

Vegas Line:

UNC by  10 1/2

Power rating spread

UNC by  13.1

% Chance to win

UNC:     82%
Ohio:    18%

North Carolina remains a double-digit favorite by the oddsmakers, knocking 2 or 3 points off what they would be, perhaps, if Marshall were playing. But some of that may be the fact that Ohio is playing very well in reaching the Sweet Sixteen. Their talented guards, D.J. Cooper and Walter Offut, will look to exploit the Tar Heels' inexperienced point assuming Marshall doesn't play.

But those two have been carrying the team lately. They scored 21 and 19 against USF, with the rest of the team totalling 22. They scored 32 of the team's 65 against Michigan. The Tar Heels defense basically just has to slow those two down, and whatever they do on offense will be enough.

Bottom line: Ohio might smell blood and play the Tar Heels tough, but it's very unlikely they can overcome the depth of North Carolina's talent pool.

Final prediction:  North Carolina 73, Ohio 67

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

2012 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (3) Baylor vs. (10) Xavier

Baylor Bears
Seed: 3
Record: 29-7
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Xavier Musketeers
Seed: 10
Record: 23-12
Conference: Atlantic 10

Date: Friday, March 23
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Location: Atlanta, GA 
Region: South

 

Baylor made it to the Elite Eight two years ago; Xavier was there four years ago. One team will go back in 2012.

     Baylor                             Xavier

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #15               Strength:        #55
Neutral court:   #14               Neutral court:   #57
Partial Credit:  #12               Partial Credit:  #52

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin:         #16               Sagarin:         #50
Pomeroy:         #16               Pomeroy:         #47
   Offense:  #12                      Offense:  #62
   Defense:  #34                      Defense:  #54
LRMC:            #17*              LRMC:            #71*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #14               2nd half/season: #50
Last 6 games:    #15               Last 6 games:    #41
Injury adj:      #9                Injury adj:      #40
Consistency:     #162              Consistency:     #200

 

Season overview: Baylor (29-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (12): San Diego St.+10, @Brigham Young+3, =St. Mary's+13, =West Virginia+OT, @Kansas St.+2, Texas+5, Iowa St.+15, @Texas+5, =Kansas St.+8, @Kansas+9, =South Dakota St.+8, =Colorado+17
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): @Kansas+9
• Losses to tournament teams (7): @Kansas-18, Missouri-1, Kansas-14, @Missouri-15, Kansas St.-1, @Iowa St.-8, =Missouri-15
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: For a while this season, Baylor looked like an easy to diagnose team, following two simple rules. 1) They could—and did—beat everyone except the elite of the Big Twelve, Kansas and Missouri. 2) They would beat everyone below that level. The Bears were 22-4 with losses to Kansas and Missouri, twice each. Before the regular season was over, point #2 was proven wrong as they fell to Kansas State and Iowa State. Then, in the Big Twelve tournament, they proved point #1 wrong by beating Kansas. They still lost to Missouri for a third time, however.

Perry Jones III is the driving force behind the team, averaging 14 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Baylor's power ratings actually skew a little bit low due to the early games he missed, and they're in the top ten in the nation when he's with them. When he plays well they're nearly unstoppable, but he was held to 5 or fewer points in three of the Bears' losses.

Against South Dakota State, Perry Jones had only 2 points as the Bears struggled to dispatch the Jackrabbits, though he did have 11 rebounds. He scored only 7 against Colorado but the Bears won easily. It's encouraging that Baylor could win so easily without a big contribution from Jones, but his 4 rebounds against the Buffaloes suggests he's in a slump. How far can they go without a strong game from their star?

             **************************************************************
 

Season overview: Xavier (23-12)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): @Vanderbilt+OT, Purdue+3, Cincinnati+23, St. Bonaventure+13, =St. Louis+7, =Notre Dame+4, =Lehigh+12
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): Cincinnati+23
• Losses to tournament teams (7): =Long Beach St.-10, Gonzaga-7, St. Louis-5, @Memphis-4, @Temple-13, @St. Louis-11, =St. Bonaventure-11
• Other losses (5): Oral Roberts-22, @Hawaii-OT, @La Salle-10, @Dayton-15, @Massachusetts-7

Key Info: Did "the brawl" untrack their season? Right after the fisticuffs that marred Xavier's big win over Cincinnati, the Musketeers lost five out of six games while several players were suspended. Look at the early chart—it's like falling off a cliff.

Leading scorer Tu Holloway (17 points) missed the next game, a 22 point loss to Oral Roberts; #2 scorer Mark Lyons missed that game and the next one, a 10-point loss to Long Beach State; and #3 scorer Dezmine Wells missed four games, three of which the Musketeers lost. Xavier has six players that grab 3.4 or more rebounds, making it a team effort on a team that has ample height. Holloway led the way against Notre Dame with 25 points. The Musketeers caught a huge break by facing Lehigh instead of Duke, but the Mountain Hawks pushed them in the first half before Xavier pulled away behind a huge game from 7 foot center Kenny Frease (25 points, 12 rebounds on 11 of 13 shooting). Holloway added 21 in the win.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: As we mentioned, Perry Jones III had a season-low 2 points against South Dakota State and just 7 against Colorado. While he had 11 rebounds in the first game, he had just 4 in the second. Luckily they were facing a 14-seed and an 11-seed. They didn't need much from him in the first game and the rest of the team picked up the slack in the second. And it's true, if he comes to live they will be in great shape.

But if he continues his slump and the rest of the team is off par, the Bears will lose to Xavier. And to advance past the Elite Eight they will need Jones to play his best. One fluke low-scoring game is one thing, but two games in double digits, plus the low rebounding effort against Colorado suggests that effort is part of the problem. Is he just looking ahead to NBA lottery day? If so, he might want to shore up his performances lest he start to drop in the draft. You'd expect a lottery pick to have more than one bucket against South Dakota State, and shoot better than 4 of 14 against two double-digit seeded teams.

Vegas Line:

Baylor by  6

Power rating spread

Baylor by  6.9   

% Chance to win

Baylor:     70% 
Colorado:   30% 

The reason Baylor is the favorite here is that by every ranking measure, from seed to Strength to Sagarin, Pomeroy, LRMC, offense, defense, and every derivative of season sample, Baylor rates as the better team.

Bottom line: If Perry Jones' lackluster play continues, it will be close but should still be a Baylor win. The better he does, the more cushion the Bears have.

Final prediction:  Baylor 70, Xavier 66

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

2012 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (3) Marquette vs. (7) Florida

Marquette Golden Eagles
Seed: 3
Record: 27-7
Conference: Big East

vs.

Florida Gators
Seed: 7
Record: 25-10
Conference: SEC

Date: Thursday, March 22
Time: 10:17 pm Eastern
Location: Phoenix, AZ 
Region: West

 

While Marquette had its hands full with 31-1 6-seed Murray State, Florida caught a breather against 15-seed Norfolk State.

     Marquette                          Florida

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #12               Strength:        #11
Neutral court:   #15               Neutral court:   #11
Partial Credit:  #14               Partial Credit:  #11

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin:         #11               Sagarin:         #8
Pomeroy:         #17               Pomeroy:         #12
   Offense:  #29                      Offense:  #3
   Defense:  #16                      Defense:  #74
LRMC:            #18*              LRMC:            #22*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #12               2nd half/season: #15
Last 6 games:    #23               Last 6 games:    #6
Injury adj:      #20               Injury adj:      #10
Consistency:     #291              Consistency:     #271

 

Season overview: Marquette (27-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): Norfolk St.+31, =Norfolk St.+2, @Wisconsin+7, Louisville+11, South Florida+20, Cincinnati+17, @Connecticut+15, @West Virginia+1, Georgetown+14, =BYU+20, =Murray State+9
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (3): @Wisconsin+7, Louisville+11, Cincinnati+17
• Losses to tournament teams (6): Vanderbilt-17, @Georgetown-3, @Syracuse-7, @Notre Dame-17, @Cincinnati-11, =Louisville-13
• Other losses (1): @Louisiana St.-8

Key Info: Marquette is the 8th-highest scoring team in the country, due to their strong offense (29th in efficiency) and fast gameplay (#16 in tempo). They're also a small team, with only one player over 6'6", 6'8" 260 lb. Davante Gardner. He took over full-time for 6'11" Chris Otule when the latter was hurt early in their 8th game against Washington. You can see by the chart what that did to the Eagles; with both big men Otule and Gardner available, they rank as the #1 team in the nation. The 7-game sample is small, but many of Marquette's best moments were early in the season. Their smaller lineup is effective, though, and they even won 6 of 8 games that Gardner missed later in the year.

The Golden Eagles boast two big scorers in Darius Johnson-Odom (18.5 ppg) and Jae Crowder (17.4) who also nabs 8.1 rebounds per game. Crowder had 25 and Johnson-Odom 20 in the BYU blowout. They each had 17 in the Murray State win.

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Season overview: Florida (25-10)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): Mississippi Valley St.+28, Florida St.+18, Vanderbilt+8, @Alabama+9, =Alabama+3, =Virginia+26, =Norfolk St.+34
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @Ohio St.-7, @Syracuse-4, @Kentucky-20, @Vanderbilt-10, Kentucky-15, =Kentucky-3
• Other losses (4): @Rutgers-OT, @Tennessee-11, Tennessee-5, @Georgia-14

Key Info: Florida was 19-4 in early February but finished 4-6, including a 1-4 finish without injured part-time-starter Will Yeguete, a forward who didn't score a lot but averaged 6.3 rebounds per game. Florida has six players that score more than he does, including five that average in double figures, with guards Kenny Boynton and Bradley Beal combining for 30 points per game. That makes their offense one of the very best in the country.

Normally a great 3-point shooting team, Florida went cold recently which led to their losses. Still, they nearly beat Kentucky before falling 74-71 in the SEC tournament. Their cold shooting continued against Virginia as they hit just 4 of 23 threes. But they held Virginia to 3 of 18 while the Gators made an incredible 24 of 30 two-point baskets (80%). Against Norfolk State they held Kyle O'Quinn to just 4 points and they again shot the lights out from 2-point range making 72%. 

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Game Analysis: As impressive as Florida's 34-point win over Norfolk State was, it was colored by the perception of the Spartans' recent upset win over Missouri. Back when Marquette beat Norfolk by 31 points no one was saying it meant anything other than the obvious—they were a good team.

Florida, however, has been slightly ahead of Marquette in our power ratings and most others, the exception being the LRMC. They maintain this slim lead in our Strength power rating, ranking 11th to Marquette's 12th, and when weighing home and away games evenly Florida is a wider favorite.

But although the teams are pretty even in performance, they don't play alike. Marquette plays very up-tempo ball compared to Florida, who is on the slower side. And there is a huge discrepancy between offensive and defensive play due to the Gators. In tempo-free stats, the Gators have the #3 offense, which will square off against Marquette's #3 defensive play. On the other side of the court, Marquette plays solid offense (#29) but Florida's defense is much weaker (#74).

It has to be noted, though, that Florida's defense during the tournament has been excellent, with their opponents shooting a combined 8 of 47 (Virginia 4 of 23, Norfolk 4 of 24) from 3-point range for 17%. So while it's not so impressive that Florida dominated Virginia (a team that faded near the end of the season) and Norfolk State (a 15-seed, let's face it), it is impressive that they did it largely with defense, their weak point, and mostly with great 2-point shooting on offense. If they ever have a great 3-point shooting game again, watch out.

Vegas Line:

Marquette by  1 1/2

Power rating spread

Florida by  0.6   

% Chance to win

Marquette:   47.6%
Florida:     52.4%

Here is another rare split between Vegas and our power rating (and others). Oddsmakers have Marquette a slight favorite, while our Strength power rating has the Gators by less than a point. In other words on paper it should be a tight game.

Bottom Line: I started the review thinking Marquette would win this game. Picking against them would mean picking all four Big East teams to lose, and that seems very unlikely. But you have to pick game-by-game and not tally up conference wins and losses. Florida is deficient on defense and probably can't survive to the Final Four, but holding two straight teams to such awful 3-point shooting means they're doing a better job at the right time. Marquette will undoubtedly shoot better than the other teams did, but Florida might finally regain their 3-point form, too, and that would be another bonus for them.

Also, there hasn't been a single overtime game yet in the NCAA tournament, despite multitudes of close games. There has to be one at some point, right?

Final prediction:  Florida 86, Marquette 85  OT

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

2012 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (2) Ohio State vs. (6) Cincinnati

Ohio State Buckeyes
Seed: 2
Record: 29-7
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Cincinnati Bearcats
Seed: 6
Record: 26-10
Conference: Big East

Date: Thursday, March 22
Time: 9:45 pm Eastern
Location: Boston, MA 
Region: East

 

There are an amazing four teams from Ohio in the Sweet Sixteen, and two of them meet here in what is also one of three Big East-Big Ten clashes.

     Ohio State                         Cincinnati

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #2                Strength:        #32
Neutral court:   #2                Neutral court:   #30
Partial Credit:  #2                Partial Credit:  #35

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin:         #1                Sagarin:         #28
Pomeroy:         #2                Pomeroy:         #25
   Offense:  #6                       Offense:  #49
   Defense:  #1                       Defense:  #22
LRMC:            #2*               LRMC:            #48*
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #3                2nd half/season: #23
Last 6 games:    #1                Last 6 games:    #16
Injury adj:      #1                Injury adj:      #23
Consistency:     #102              Consistency:     #170

 

Season overview: Ohio State (29-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (12): Florida+7, Duke+22, Lamar+20, Indiana+17, Michigan+15, @Wisconsin+6, Purdue+3, @Michigan St.+2, =Purdue+17, =Michigan+22, =Loyola MD+19, =Gonzaga+7
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (4): Florida+7, Indiana+17, @Wisconsin+6, @Michigan St.+2
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @Kansas-11, @Indiana-4, Michigan St.-10, @Michigan-5, Wisconsin-3, =Michigan St.-4
• Other losses (1): @Illinois-5

Key Info: For most of the year, Ohio State ranked #1 in our Strength power rating, and was #1 on many other power ratings around the web. This was due to their incredible performance over their first seven games which culminated in a 22 point win over Duke. For the next two they lacked Jared Sullinger and lost to Kansas. After that they hit their early highs at times, but not with the same consistency, and had some lows, too, the lowest probably being the loss to Illinois in January. Eventually, Kentucky caught up with the Buckeyes and overtook them at the #1 position.

Sullinger continued where he left off last year but didn't really add anything to his arsenal, giving teams a better chance to defend him. Still, he basically replicated last year's numbers with 17.6 ppg and 9.2 rebounds. In the three games he missed or hardly played in, the Buckeyes were worse; with those games excluded, they average out as the #1 team, and maintain the #1 defense.

The rest of the squad is no slouch, though, with Deshaun Thomas and William Buford averaging a combined 30 points. In fact, against Loyola MD, Thomas had 31 by himself, and Buford added 17 of his own. Thomas had 12 rebounds and Sullinger 11. Sullinger and Thomas both had 18 points against Gonzaga, with point Aaron Craft adding 17 points and 10 assists.

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Season overview: Cincinnati (26-10)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): Notre Dame+16, @Georgetown+4, @Connecticut+3, Louisville+4, Marquette+11, =Georgetown+OT, =Syracuse+3, =Texas+6, =Florida St.+6
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (3): Louisville+4, Marquette+11, =Syracuse+3
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @Xavier-23, @West Virginia-OT, Syracuse-7, @Marquette-17, @South Florida-1, =Louisville-6
• Other losses (4): Presbyterian-2, Marshall-OT, St. John's-2, @Rutgers-7

Key Info: Cincinnati beat a 3-seed three times and a 1-seed once, with three of those wins coming since February 29. Before that, their résumé was a bit shakier and they were considered a bubble team. Reaching the Big East tournament final put an end to that talk.

The loss to Xavier (and the brawl that followed) in game 8 was the Bearcats' low point. The team moved on and improved and has four key players that average in double figures: 3-pt shooter Sean Kilpatric, guards Dion Dixon and Cashmere Wright, and forward Yancy Gates who leads with 9.2 rebounds per game. As capable as their offense is, the team's defense is their stronger point. That defense held Texas to 35% shooting and on the other side of the court, Gates led with 15 points and 10 rebounds. Kilpatric had 18 to lead in the win over Florida State.

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Game Analysis: When two in-state foes meet, they're sure to play with a lot of intensity. Who does that favor?

If you read anything into Cincinnati's most intense game—the December 10 clash with Xavier—then it favors the Buckeyes, big time. Cincinnati lost badly to Xavier and the teams brawled afterwards. If that's the way they play—losing by 23—against an in-state rival, then they'll have little luck against Ohio State.

But the Xavier rivalry is much more heated than the Cincy-Ohio State one, which has been a rivalry only on paper in the last several decades. The schools play regularly in football—where OSU has a huge advantage of course—but have only played basketball once in the last five decades. Historically, there's bad blood—Cincy won back-to-back NCAA titles in 1961 and 1962, beating the Buckeyes both times. So the septuagenarian fans could get a little hot-headed at the prospect of these teams meeting.

Otherwise, this is only as big as any other Sweet Sixteen game. Which is to say, very big, but Ohio State is a big target for any team. Cincy might play with a chip on their shoulder and the Buckeyes have to respond in kind. Yancy Gates vs. Jared Sullinger is a key matchup.

Vegas Line:

Ohio State by  8

Power rating spread

Ohio State by  10.7   

% Chance to win

Ohio State:    78% 
Cincinnati:    22% 

2-seeds are 19-6 against 6-seeds, for a 76% winning percentage. Our game-comparison system gives Ohio State a roughly similar 78% chance to beat Cincinnati, given the teams' performances this season.

The average point spread in those performances yields a 10 or 11 point win for the Buckeyes. But at this level of play—in the Sweet Sixteen, with everything on the line—games tend to be tighter. The oddsmakers have installed Ohio State as an 8 point favorite.

Bottom line:  Cincinnati will need great individual performances to beat Ohio State, and they can do it if the Buckeyes don't get mean. But Ohio State is the better team, and as long as they match Cincy's intensity they should prevail.

Final prediction:  Ohio State 70, Cincinnati 62

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.

2012 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (1) Michigan State vs. (4) Louisville

Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 1
Record: 29-7
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Louisville Cardinals
Seed: 4
Record: 28-9
Conference: Big East

Date: Thursday, March 22
Time: 7:47 pm Eastern
Location: Phoenix, AZ 
Region: West

 

Another of the three 1-seed vs. 4-seed matchups in the Sweet Sixteen this year, and one of two Big Ten vs. Big East clashes.

     Michigan State                     Louisville

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:        #3                Strength:        #20
Neutral court:   #3                Neutral court:   #20
Partial Credit:  #3                Partial Credit:  #20

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin:         #3                Sagarin:         #20
Pomeroy:         #3                Pomeroy:         #19
   Offense:  #8                       Offense:  #116
   Defense:  #3                       Defense:  #2
LRMC:            #4*               LRMC:            #23
(LRMC unrevised since Selection Sunday)

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season: #2                2nd half/season: #22
Last 6 games:    #2                Last 6 games:    #5
Injury adj:      #3                Injury adj:      #21
Consistency:     #51               Consistency:     #184

 

Season overview: Michigan State (29-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): Florida St.+16, @Gonzaga+7, Lehigh+9, Indiana+15, @Wisconsin+OT, Purdue+25, Michigan+10, @Ohio St.+10, Wisconsin+14, @Purdue+14, =Wisconsin+13, =Ohio St.+4, =Long Island+22, =St. Louis+4
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (6): Indiana+15, @Wisconsin+OT, @Ohio St.+10, Wisconsin+14, =Wisconsin+13, =Ohio St.+4
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =North Carolina-12, =Duke-5, @Michigan-1, @Indiana-15, Ohio St.-2
• Other losses (2): @Northwestern-7, @Illinois-1

Key Info: Michigan State had a killer schedule, and kicked off with a couple of losses: to North Carolina on an aircraft carrier, and to Duke at Madison Square Garden. They also played (and beat) Florida State and Gonzaga en route to 15 straight wins. They lost another two games back-to-back at Northwestern and Michigan before starting another winning streak. Then came another two losses—to Indiana and Ohio State—before their winning Big Ten tournament run.

Draymond Green has become a superstar in his senior season, averaging 16.1 points and 10.4 rebounds per outing. Keith Appling is the only other player in double figures, but the Spartan defense is so good they normally don't need a lot of points.

When they do get a lot of points—like they did against Long Island—they're pretty much unstoppable. And Green lived up to the hype in the first round with a triple-double, netting 24 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists. Against St. Louis he had 16 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 assists while Appling led with 19 points.

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Season overview: Louisville (28-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): Lamar+20, Ohio+5, Long Beach St.+13, Vanderbilt+OT, Memphis+8, Western Kentucky+10, Connecticut+21, @West Virginia+3, =Marquette+13, =Notre Dame+14, =Cincinnati+6, =Davidson+7, =New Mexico+3
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams: (3): Ohio+5, =Marquette+13, =Cincinnati+6
• Losses to tournament teams (8): Georgetown-3, @Kentucky-7, Notre Dame-OT, @Marquette-11, Syracuse-1, @Cincinnati-4, South Florida-7, @Syracuse-9
• Other losses (1): @Providence-31

Key Info: For a 4-seed, Louisville has an astonishing number of wins over tournament teams—13 after their two wins. That's a number usually seen with #1 seeds. True, the Big East placed 9 teams, and five of their six regular season, non-conference wins are over non-major conference foes, but one of those teams (Ohio) is now in the Sweet Sixteen. The team hit rough patches twice—losing 5 of 7, then 4 of 6—but each time recovered with a string of wins.

They have 8 tourney team losses, too, leaving just one non-tournament loss. That was a 90-59 debacle at Providence that still shows up like a sore thumb on their chart. Other than that oddity, they haven't been any more unpredictable than your average team. They're basically a poor offensive team (Kyle Kuric leads with 13.4 in a "balanced" attack, meaning in this case low-scoring efficiency) with a great defense that carries them. Whether they're able to press and trap or not, they disrupt teams' offenses.

The team's star is point guard Peyton Siva, who will be one of the breakout stars of the tournament if Louisville manages a deep run; he was named the MVP of the Big East tournament. Siva led with 17 in the Davidson win, and although he had just 6 against New Mexico, two were on a late drive down the middle that broke the Lobos' back and he iced the game with two clutch free throws. Russ Smith had 17 points in that win.

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Game Analysis: In Louisville, Michigan State faces a very different foe than they did against St. Louis, but there are many similarities, too: Both Louisville and St. Louis are very strong on defense, have one of the better coaches in college basketball, and rank almost exactly the same in all of the surveyed power ratings. The Cardinals, however, are even better on defense (currently #3 in the nation in defensive efficiency) and are worse on offense, ranking just #116.

And Michigan State is one of two teams (Ohio State the other) comparable on D with the Cardinals. Similar defensive strength plus far better offense (the Spartans are #8) suggest a Michigan State win.

It goes beyond that, however. In their two NCAA performances, Michigan State has had the look of an invincible team. No, they haven't been dominating their foes—Long Island pushed them in the first half, which the Spartans led by just five, and St. Louis kept up the whole way, losing by 4—but teams are taking their best shot, and Michigan State isn't flinching. They're in control of the game the whole way. It's starting to look like another Michigan State Final Four appearance is inevitable, and they're playing like a team that can win it all.

Nothing is inevitable in the Big Dance, however, and Louisville is on a roll and playing like the #5 team in the nation over their last six games, all wins. Problem is, Michigan State ranks #2 by the same measure. Whoever wins should be the favorite to make the Final Four.

Vegas Line:

Michigan State by  4 1/2

Power rating spread

Michigan State by  6.9   

% Chance to win

Michigan St:    70% 
Louisville:     30% 

As we mentioned, according to our power rating (and others), Louisville is basically St. Louis redux for the Spartans. Their defense is even better, but their offense much worse. The Spartans are favored by about the same amount as they were last Saturday.

The oddsmakers have a closer game than our power rating, and for good reason—Louisville is on a tear in the post-season, winning the Big East tournament and rolling with two NCAA wins. Shades of UConn from last year? Perhaps so. We post the "Last 6 games" rating to capture recent performance, and by that measure Louisville is #5—but still, tellingly, a 3 point underdog. Measuring by the last 6 games is probably the most favorable slice of the season you could generate for the Cardinals, and still, the Spartans come out ahead.

To us that suggests a game like Michigan State's previous two—where their opponent throws everything they have at them, and never gives up, but the Spartans weather the storm.

Bottom line: The Spartans have the look of a juggernaut all of a sudden. We see them advancing, slowly but surely. And there's the chance the Cardinals might be due for a dud game, too.

Final prediction:  Michigan State 63, Louisville 49

More previews: click here for the full 2012 NCAA tournament schedule.