Colorado State (15-7) is pushing for an NCAA bid from the Mountain West, and with competition for the top spots in that league so hard, the Rams' résumé is going to be of utmost importance in their effort to convince the committee they deserve a bid. They're currently tied for 4th in the league, and assuming they don't win it, they have an uphill climb. On thing in their favor is a very good RPI. It's at a high enough level right now that it's bordering on a lock, i.e., no team with as good of an RPI has missed the tournament.
That is, depending on which site you reference for the Rams' current RPI. On the NCAA's site, it's #18, but that was calculated before their loss to UNLV. It's still #18 on one site, which is "lock" quality. On a few others it's from #23-24, a number that's rarely passed over but has been on occasion. On another few, it's #30-31, which is good but by no means a guarantee. Here's a breakdown of RPIs for games through February 4th:
Colorado State's RPI(s):
TeamRankings 30
CBS Sports 24
RealTimeRPI 18
Warren Nolan 23
Yahoo/Rivals 31
Live-RPI 23
Average: 24.8
Everyone knows the RPI is an inexact science, since the NCAA doesn't publish the algorithm, and only publishes the official ratings weekly. The basic formula is known: 25% wins, 50% opponents' wins, 25% opponents' opponents' wins, with road wins weighted 1.4 and home wins 0.6, and all wins over the team in question removed before W/L calculations, etc.
So most teams vary by a position or two among these ratings, which as far as I can tell are all current as of today, so that it's not that some haven't been updated. The difference might be in whether they are considering Colorado State's win over Nebraska Omaha to be a Division I win. Let's look back at those numbers:
Colorado State's RPI Neb-Omaha listed?
TeamRankings 30 YES #323
Yahoo/Rivals 31 YES #323
CBS Sports 24 NO
RealTimeRPI 18 NO
Warren Nolan 23 NO
Live-RPI 23 NO
Average: 24.8 YES: 30.5 NO: 22
So it looks like a couple of the sites—TeamRankings and Yahoo/Rivals—consider Nebraska-Omaha to be a full-fledged Division I program, and worthy of inclusion in the RPI formula. The others do not. Nebraska-Omaha moved up to Division I provisionally and is a full member in 2015-2016.
For the RPI, wins only count over Division I teams, meaning two of the rankings are giving the Rams an additional victory. But why does an additional win make them lower at those two sites? Because, if you look at the RPI formula, 3/4 of it is strength of schedule:
Win% (25%) + Opponents' Win% (50%) + Opponents' Opponents' Win% (25%)
Peel off the last two components, and together, at the same ratio (2/3 of the first, 1/3 of the second) they make up the "SOS" heading that some sites list. So playing a low-ranked team like Nebraska-Omaha is enough to knock a team down in the RPI, and here Colorado State pays about an 8.5 spot penalty.
Are other teams affected if their game against Nebraska-Omaha is counted? Let's take a look:
Nebraska-Omaha's schedule (Division I only):
Opponent W/L Loc Opponent RPI (In vs. Out) Average* Diff
IPFW L Away 249,250 | 260,244,259,259 249.5 vs. 259 up 10
UMKC L Away 239,240 | 239,214,240,238 239.5 vs. 239 dn 0.5
S Dakota L Away 271,271 | 271,266,271,271 271 vs. 271 0
N Dakota St. L Away 135,135 | 134,122,135,135 135 vs. 135 0
N Illinois *W* Away 342,342 | 334,334,334,334 342 vs. 334 dn 8
Michigan St. L Away 11,11 | 6,5,8,9 11 vs. 7.6 dn 3
IPFW L *Home* 249,250 | 260,244,259,259 249.5 vs. 259 up 10
Wisc Milw L Away 143,142 | 134,139,134,134 142.5 vs. 134 dn 8.5
Seattle L Away 293,292 | 287,286,287,288 292.5 vs. 287 dn 5
Coppin St. L Neutral 203,206 | 203,207,202,203 204.5 vs. 202 dn 2
Colorado St. L Away 30,31 | 24,18,23,23 30.5 vs. 23 dn 7
Nevada L Away 83,83 | 70,52,71,70 83 vs. 70 dn 13
W Illinois L *Home* 190,191 | 201,177,201,201 190.5 vs. 201 up 10.5
* RealTimeRPI excluded from averages due to outlier numbers
We do see quite a difference between the rankings that include the game with Nebraska Omaha and those that don't. The two that include them as Division I have very similar numbers, differing by at most one position. The others are very close to each other, too, if we ignore RealTimeRPI (2nd in the list of "Out" values), as their rankings are at odds with the other three so something else is going on there.
Playing Nebraska Omaha generally hurt teams, even though almost everyone beat them. It helped IPFW to the tune of 10 ranking spots, probably because IPFW beat the Mavericks twice, and getting those two wins offset the drag on their SOS. Western Illinois was helped, too, since they actually played Omaha on the road, and road wins count more.
Pretty much everyone else was hurt a little or a lot when games with Omaha were counted, mostly due to their SOS going down. UMKC, South Dakota, Coppin State and North Dakota State really didn't suffer. The first three are no surprise since those teams could use a win and had bad SOS to start with, but it's a bit surprising that North Dakota State didn't take a small hit.
Other teams did: Michigan State ranks high enough that those 3 or so spots they give up are very significant, and other teams rated above-average suffered, such as Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Colorado State, and in particular Nevada, who ranks 83rd with their Omaha win included, and around 70th without. The Wolf Pack would much rather that game—though they won—just be forgotten. If they improve their RPI a bit, counting the Omaha game or not could be the difference between getting in or being left out of the tournament.
Northern Illinois actually lost to Omaha, so they are understandably penalized when the game is counted.
So the question is, who is right? Should Nebraska Omaha be considered Division I for the purposes of the RPI? It seems the consensus (4 to 2) is no. They do play a majority Division I schedule, but 12 of their 28 scheduled games are against non-Division I opponents. The verdict is made clear by the NCAA: their site doesn't list the team among the 344 in its official RPI.
There are several other teams that are only "provisionally" Division I, according to Wikipedia:
- Presbyterian College, reclassified to Division I for 2012-13
- University of North Dakota, reclassified to Division I for 2012-13
- Bryant University, reclassified to Division I for 2012-13
- Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, reclassified to Division I for 2012-13
- University of South Dakota, reclassified to Division I for 2012-13
- Seattle University, reclassified to Division I for 2012-13
- University of Nebraska-Omaha, reclassified to Division I for 2015-16
- Northern Kentucky University, reclassified to Division I for 2016-17
All of the 2012-13 teams are listed in every RPI, so it seems that for the 2011-2012 basketball season, all of these teams are considered Division I. Northern Kentucky isn't listed on any of them, and Nebraska Omaha is listed on 2 of the 6.
It's interesting to compare the various RPI sites. Of the RPI ratings that are updated daily and freely available out there, TeamRankings and Yahoo/Rivals are very close; CBS Sports, Warren Nolan, and Live-RPI are another group in general agreement; and RealTimeRPI is doing its own thing. They'd all be a lot more in agreement, though, if they all excluded Nebraska Omaha, like the NCAA does on its weekly RPI update.
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