SportsRatings: College Basketball

Dance Chance update: No top seed for Big Ten? Kansas moves into final slot

Indiana's 70-55 beatdown of conference leader Michigan State on Tuesday, coupled with Wisconsin's 63-60 win at Ohio State on Sunday, means the Big Ten is out of the driver's seat in the race for a #1 seed. Kansas joins our list of the top four in the latest Dance Chance rankings.

The Hoosiers officially locked up their spot in the tournament with the win, and now sit as the highest 4-seed, moving ahead of conference mate Michigan. Wisconsin's win gave them a huge boost, from a 7-seed to a 4-seed. The Badgers improved their RPI from 28 to 19 and their RealWins rank from #31 to #18.

Syracuse retains the overall #1 seed by a slim margin over Kentucky. The Orange and the Wildcats are clear choices for top seeds representing the Big East and SEC. The Big Ten and the Big Twelve are the other top conference, but while the Big Ten is #1 in most conference rankings including conference RPI, their top teams now have six losses each. Meanwhile the ACC ranks poorly as a conference but has two outstanding teams in Duke and North Carolina, one of whom should get a #1 seed. And the Big Twelve has three strong candidates with Kansas leading the pack at the moment.

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
1	Syracuse	Big East	29-1	16-1	1	1	8	100%	1
2	Kentucky	SEC	28-1	14-0	2	2	7	100%	1
3	Duke	ACC	26-4	13-2	3	3	7	100%	1
4	Kansas	Big 12	25-5	15-2	6	5	10	100%	1	+1
5	North Carolina	ACC	25-4	12-2	5	6	7	100%	2	-1
6	Michigan St.	Big Ten	23-6	13-4	4	4	9	100%	2
7	Marquette	Big East	24-5	13-3	7	7	5	100%	2
8	Missouri	Big 12	25-4	12-4	17	11	6	100%	2	+1
9	Baylor	Big 12	24-5	12-5	8	16	6	100%	3
10	Ohio St.	Big Ten	23-6	11-5	11	9	7	100%	3	-1

Michigan State remains a 2-seed but loses ground to Kansas and North Carolina. Ohio State falls to a 3-seed, with a good shot at getting a 2 but a diminished chance for a 1. Kansas' lead over Missouri and Baylor has grown greatly after the Jayhawks overtime win over the Tigers.

In addition to Wisconsin, two other teams jumped multiple seeds over the last few days. Memphis and Virginia both climbed two seeds to a 6-seed and 8-seed respectively.

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
24	Memphis	C-USA	22-8	12-3	18	24	2	99.9	6	+2
25	Southern Miss	C-USA	21-6	10-4	13	30	3	99.9	7
26	Nevada Las Vegas	Mtn West	22-6	8-4	12	28	5	99.9	7	-1
27	Notre Dame	Big East	20-10	12-5	43	21	6	99.9	7	-1
28	Murray St.	Ohio Valley	25-1	15-1	29	36	3	99.9	7
29	Iowa St.	Big 12	21-8	11-5	32	42	3	99.9	8	-1
30	Virginia	ACC	21-7	8-6	38	39	3	99.9	8	+2

The Tigers took over from Southern Miss as the top-ranked team in the C-USA after beating Central Florida, putting them 12-3 in conference to the Eagles' 10-4. They also picked up a 2nd top 50 RPI win as Miami FL moved back into that designation. Both teams are virtually guaranteed a spot at this point, but the conference tournament will determine seeding. The winner will probably hold a 7-seed, maybe a 6, while the loser will drop a few notches.

Virginia's upward move also came courtesy of the Hurricanes in part. The Cavaliers haven't played since our last Dance Chance update, but due to Miami and Oregon becoming top 50 RPI teams, Virginia now has 3 big wins instead of 1; they beat Oregon in December and Miami in January. So their ranking is pretty precarious, contingent on those teams not dropping out of the top 50 and sinking the Cavs' résumé. Virginia is in great shape for a bid at 21-7 and 8-6 in conference, with both RPI and RealWins above bubble-level. But beating Florida State—a team that, unlike Oregon and Miami, is solidly in the top 50—would be great insurance for remaining an upper-level seed.

Bubble Report: Miami and Oregon help themselves, too; South Florida jumps back in

As we saw above, Miami and Oregon helped a lot of teams by moving into the RPI top 50. Oregon beat Oregon State to grab the #50 spot, while Miami upset Florida State to rank 48th. On the Dance Chance, Miami's win was far more significant, propelling the 'Canes back into the seedings as an 11, with a solid 70% chance of making the tournament as things stand right now.

The Hurricanes are joined by another Florida team, South Florida, who beat Cincinnati 46-45 on Sunday and now ranks one spot ahead of the Bearcats, who are also an 11-seed. Cincy has a better overall record, but USF is a game better in the Big East and has a huge RPI advantage, 45 to 78. But Cincinnati's wins profile is superior, ranking #45 in RealWins to USF's #60, and holding 5 top 50 wins to USF's single big win.

Dayton and Mississippi State slip into the projected play-in territory, though neither played since the last update on Sunday; Miami and USF's jump pushes them each down a couple of notches. The Bulldogs have lost five straight, however, and will be underwater soon if that continues.

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
41	Miami FL	ACC	17-10	8-6	48	57	2	69.9	11	+
42	Northwestern	Big Ten	17-11	7-9	44	56	2	68.4	11
43	South Florida	Big East	17-11	11-5	45	60	1	64.4	11	+
44	Cincinnati	Big East	20-9	10-6	78	45	5	63.9	11
45	Iona	Metro Atl	24-6	15-3	39	25	0	63.0	12
46	Oral Roberts	Summit	26-5	17-1	40	37	0	62.1	12	-1
47	Saint Joseph's	Atlantic 10	19-11	9-6	51	32	2	60.2	12	-1
48	Harvard	Ivy League	23-4	10-2	37	48	1	59.5	12
49	Dayton	Atlantic 10	18-10	8-6	63	34	3	54.6	13	-1
50	Mississippi St.	SEC	19-10	6-8	66	49	2	54.4	13	-1
51	Washington	Pac-12	20-8	13-3	52	75	1	54.2	13
52	Colorado St.	Mtn West	16-10	6-6	26	68	2	50.9	13
53	Virginia Commonwealth	Colonial Ath	25-6	15-3	61	31	1	49.0	13
54	Texas	Big 12	18-11	8-8	56	77	3	48.3		x
55	Brigham Young	West Coast	22-7	12-4	49	71	2	46.8
56	Arizona	Pac-12	21-9	12-5	71	58	1	45.4
57	Illinois	Big Ten	17-12	6-10	75	52	4	45.4
58	Xavier	Atlantic 10	18-11	9-6	54	50	2	44.3		x
59	Middle Tennessee	Sun Belt	24-5	14-2	47	46	0	44.2	13
60	Louisiana St.	SEC	17-11	7-7	70	64	2	41.1
61	Oregon	Pac-12	20-8	11-5	50	74	0	40.6
62	Mississippi	SEC	17-12	7-8	58	66	1	37.8

Texas also gets pushed down despite not playing, knocking them out of the seedings for now. The Longhorns' numbers are all at or below bubble level, but holding 3 top 50 RPI wins keeps them from drowning.

Xavier falls off the seeding for the time being, but it was their own fault as they lost to St. Louis last night. The Atlantic 10 still has four teams currently in our seeding, two very solid (Temple, St. Louis) and two on the bubble (St. Joe's and Dayton).

Washington and Arizona were neck-and-neck last time out, but the Huskies added some separation due to their earlier win over Oregon while the Wildcats' RealWins rank was hurt a bit by California's loss to Colorado. Washington beat Arizona twice and now leads the Pac-12, so their odds of getting in are brightening. Though Oregon moved into the top 50 RPI themselves, Washington dipped below that level—removing the Ducks' only big win, and preventing them from making progress this update.

In the SEC, while Mississippi State slides and LSU remains outside looking in, Mississippi got a new lease on life after beating Arkansas last night. All of the Rebels' numbers are below-waterline figures and they'd lost 6 of their last 8 before beating the Tigers on Saturday, so it's not surprising that they're still outside looking in by any measure. Beating Alabama on March 3rd would put them back in serious discussion going into the SEC tournament. Overall the SEC is doing pretty well, with four teams virtually a lock and three others on the bubble. And even Tennessee and Arkansas aren't counted out yet, though they are considerable longshots.

Montana, Stony Brook replace Weber State, Vermont as conference favorites

In the lower, auto-bid projections, Montana has become the Big Sky favorite. The Grizzlies beat the Wildcats 66-51 last night to take a 1-game lead in the conference standings, 15-1 to Weber's 14-2. Montana is the projected lowest 15-seed. Stony Brook leads the America East at 14-2, while Vermont is 13-3, and the difference finally put the Seawolves ahead of the Catamounts as a play-in 16-seed. The writing was on the wall, though, ever since Vermont lost to 1-28 Binghamton. For all of these teams, the conference tournament will decide who goes dancing and who stays home, so the current order isn't that important.

Zeitgeist Top 25 for February 27, 2012: Overtime is kind to #4 Kansas, #5 Duke

Two teams in the top five of this week's Zeitgeist Top 25 owe their rankings to overtime wins at home.

#1 Syracuse (29-1), #2 Kentucky (28-1), and #3 Michigan State (24-5) all have sizeable winning streaks. The Orange added wins over South Florida and Connecticut for their 8th and 9th in a row; the Wildcats downed Mississippi State and Vanderbilt to make it a whopping 20 in a row; and Michigan State has won seven in a row after beating Minnesota and Nebraska.

While #4 Kansas (24-5) and #5 Duke (25-4) have each won six in a row, it almost came to an end for both teams. Kansas was down by as much as 19 points in the second half against Missouri before coming back to force overtime and winning 87-86. Duke needed overtime to overcome Virginia Tech 70-65.

A point here or there and the big story would be how Missouri (25-4) rebounded from their 78-68 upset home loss to Kansas State; instead they lost their 2nd game in a row and fall from #3 to #9. Likewise, Duke would be out of the top ten instead of jumping five spots to #5. But close doesn't matter in the end...at least in the Zeitgeist rankings.

Non-majors Wichita State (26-4) and Murray State (28-1) completed their regular seasons and moved up to #6 and #7. The Shockers beat Illinois State and Drake, while the Racers topped Tennessee State and Tennessee Tech. Not huge victories, but both avoided losses that plagued other top ten teams. North Carolina also took advantage, jumping from #14 to #8 with wins over North Carolina State and Virginia.

Notre Dame (20-9) couldn't avoid the upset bug, and their great 9-game winning streak—that started with a win over Syracuse—finally came to and end at the hand of St. John's, 61-58. The Irish fall five spots to #10.

Zeitgest Top 25 for week ending February 26, 2012
 LW  Rnk Team                   Rec   Points  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse               29-1   87.08  .W 71-69 @#139 Connecticut      
  2   2. Kentucky               28-1   79.07  .W 83-74 #37 Vanderbilt         
  4   3. Michigan St.           24-5   63.53  .W 62-34 #157 Nebraska          
  5   4. Kansas                 24-5   61.00  .W 87-86OT #3 Missouri          
 10   5. Duke                   25-4   49.60  .W 70-65OT #155 Virginia Tech   
  8   6. Wichita St.            26-4   49.32  .W 81-58 #140 Drake             
 12   7. Murray St.             28-1   43.02  .W 69-64 @#150 Tennessee Tech   
 14   8. North Carolina         25-4   42.50  .W 54-51 @#59 Virginia          
  3   9. Missouri               25-4   41.61  .L 87-86OT @#5 Kansas           
  6  10. Notre Dame             20-9   40.57  .L 61-58 @#165 St. John's       
 13  11. Oral Roberts           26-5   38.29  .W 73-71 @#227 Southern Utah    
 17  12. Marquette              24-5   36.98  ..W 61-60 @#76 West Virginia    
  9  13. Temple                 22-6   36.58  .L 82-72 @#43 Saint Joseph's    
 22  14. Creighton              25-5   34.62  .W 61-60 @#145 Indiana St.      
 20  15. Drexel                 25-5   34.17  .W 73-72 @#131 Old Dominion     
 30  16. Gonzaga                23-5   31.27  .W 65-57 @#284 San Diego        
 28  17. Baylor                 24-5   31.12  .W 70-60 #198 Oklahoma          
 16  18. Michigan               21-8   30.66  .L 75-61 #84 Purdue             
 15  19. Ohio St.               23-6   30.62  L 63-60 #25 Wisconsin           
 25  20. Wisconsin              21-8   30.28  W 63-60 @#15 Ohio St.           
  7  21. New Mexico             22-6   29.60  .L 83-64 @#71 Texas Christian   
 31  22. Nevada Las Vegas       24-6   29.15  .W 68-58 #113 Air Force         
 47  23. San Diego St.          22-6   27.79  .W 74-66 #68 Colorado St.       
 18  24. Florida                22-7   27.69  .L 76-62 @#135 Georgia          
 38  25. Virginia Commonwealth  25-6   27.65  .W 89-77 #29 George Mason      

Former top tens Temple (22-6) and New Mexico (22-6) had rough weeks. The Owls needed overtime to beat La Salle, then lost to St. Joe's 82-72, falling to #13. The Lobos took it on the chin twice, first at Colorado State 71-63, then at TCU 83-64, their worst loss of the year. They drop from #7 to #21.

Golden Eagles soar

Oral Roberts (26-5) slides up a few notches by beating Southern Utah this week; they are 19-1 in their last 20 games. Marquette (24-5) beat Rutgers and West Virginia to leap five spots to #12. The two teams became the Golden Eagles around the same time, Oral Roberts changing from the Titans in 1993, and Marquette dropping the still-beloved Warriors monicker in 1994.

Mid-majors Creighton and Drexel are both 25-5 after capping their regular seasons with two wins. The Blue Jays are up 8 spots to #14 after beating Evansville and Indiana State, while the Dragons defeated James Madison and Old Dominion.

Gonzaga and Baylor made their way back into the top 25 after recent setbacks. The Bulldogs (23-5) beat BYU 74-63 on Thursday and San Diego on Saturday and jumped from #30 to #16. The Bears (24-5) had lost three of four before wins over Texas and Oklahoma put them back on track; they leap 11 spots to #17.

Mixed Week for Big Ten's Top Teams

It was a wild week in the Big Ten, and in the end the conference's #2 through #4 teams ended up in a logjam from #18 to #20.

• Michigan (21-8) beat Northwestern 67-55 in overtime but lost to Purdue at home; they ended up down two spots to #18.
• Ohio State (23-6) beat Illinois convincingly but lost at home to Wisconsin, falling four spots to #19
• Wisconsin (21-8) lost to Iowa on Thursday, 67-66, in a game not as close as that score suggests, but rebounded to beat the Buckeyes 63-60. In their case the big win overcame the disappointing loss and the Badgers move up five spots to #20

Two Mountain West teams forged their way back into the top 25 of our volatile rankings: UNLV (24-6) beat Boise State and Air Force to move up to #22, while San Diego State used an overtime win over Wyoming and a defeat of Colorado State to jump all the way from #47 to #23.

Florida (22-7) beat Auburn but lost to Georgia in the SEC; the Gators fell 6 spots this week. VCU (25-6) won twice in the CAA, including a win over George Mason, to put them at #25.

Five teams enter, five teams leave

Dropping out of the top 25 this week were #11 Florida State, #19 St. Louis, #21 Southern Miss, #23 California, and #24 Harvard.

FSU (19-9) fell the hardest, dropping two games. The Seminoles lost to Duke at home, 74-66, then fell to rival Miami on the road, 78-62. The unforgiving Zeitgeist system dumped them all the way to #34.

St. Louis (22-6) lost to Rhode Island and fell to #30; Southern Miss (23-6) lost to UTEP in double overtime on Wednesday, and beating Rice on Saturday only helped them recover to #31. Cal (23-7) beat 6-22 Utah on Thursday, which did almost nothing positive for them, then lost to Colorado which knocked them down to #41. And Harvard (24-4) blew their Ivy League cushion by losing to Penn at home, 55-54. The Crimson fell to #33.

Bubble Update: Attack of the Atlantic 10 - how many teams get in?

Two weeks before Selection Sunday, and the Atlantic 10 has five teams in our Dance Chance projected brackets. Can that possibly last?

First let's look at the winners and losers of February 25, 2012, bracketwise.

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
1	Syracuse	Big East	29-1	16-1	1	1	9	100%	1
2	Kentucky	SEC	28-1	14-0	3	2	7	100%	1
3	Duke	ACC	25-4	12-2	2	3	8	100%	1
4	North Carolina	ACC	25-4	12-2	5	5	5	100%	1
5	Michigan St.	Big Ten	23-5	13-3	4	4	9	100%	2
6	Kansas	Big 12	24-5	14-2	6	7	10	100%	2
7	Marquette	Big East	24-5	13-3	7	8	7	100%	2
8	Ohio St.	Big Ten	23-5	11-4	8	9	7	100%	2
9	Missouri	Big 12	25-4	12-4	15	10	6	100%	3
10	Baylor	Big 12	23-5	11-5	9	13	7	100%	3
11	Wichita St.	MVC	25-4	16-2	10	6	2	100%	3	+1

• Syracuse nipped Connecticut by a point to hold on to the overall #1 seed. Kentucky kept pace with a win over Vanderbilt
• North Carolina beat Virginia and is the current final #1 seed, but as we've reiterated, Duke and UNC will fight it out for a top seed, with the final #1 eventually going to Michigan State (who overwhelmed Nebraska yesterday) or Kansas (who edged Missouri in overtime).
• Close doesn't count: Kansas needed overtime at home to beat the Tigers, but a win is a win. It didn't affect our Dance Chance rankings much, though: Kansas remained a 2-seed, moving up from #7 to #6, while Missouri remained at #9 and the top 3-seed
• Baylor, Wichita State regarded as "locks": The Bears beat Oklahoma and Wichita State finished their regular season 25-4 by beating Drake. Both teams reach the vaunted 100% designation, which asserts that it's impossible for them not to make the tournament.

Other moves in the top 7 seeds:

• Florida lost to Georgia and fell to a 4-seed
• Creighton edged Indiana State 61-60 in yet another close game for the Blue Jays; they're up a notch to a 5-seed at 25-5
• Alabama's win over Mississippi State helped them climb to a 6-seed
• Notre Dame's first loss in weeks—to St. John's—dropped them to a 7-seed
• Murray State is 28-1 (25-1 against Division I) and beat Tennessee Tech, moving up to a 7-seed

Biggest winners, losers: Iowa State jumps to a 7; Seton Hall, Virginia drop 2

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
28	Iowa St.	Big 12	21-8	11-5	31	43	3	99.9	7	+3
29	Purdue	Big Ten	19-10	9-7	40	30	5	99.9	8	+1
30	Memphis	C-USA	21-8	11-3	20	28	1	99.2	8	+1
31	Connecticut	Big East	17-11	7-9	30	36	6	95.1	8	-1
32	California	Pac-12	23-6	13-3	33	44	1	94.4	8	+1
33	St. Mary's	West Coast	23-5	14-2	32	58	3	91.9	9
34	Seton Hall	Big East	19-10	8-9	44	35	3	89.3	9	-2
35	New Mexico	Mtn West	21-6	8-4	35	39	4	88.1	9	-1
36	Kansas St.	Big 12	19-9	8-8	45	42	5	85.9	9	-1
37	San Diego St.	Mtn West	20-6	8-4	27	53	5	83.1	10	+1
38	Virginia	ACC	21-7	8-6	39	37	1	82.8	10	-2

Iowa State upset Kansas State in Manhattan, dropping the Wildcats from an 8- to a 9-seed. Their loss was the Cyclones' gain as ISU moved from a 10-seed to the lowest 7-seed.

Seton Hall lost at home to Rutgers in overtime. Now a bubble-worthy 19-10 and 8-9 in conference, the Pirates have a decent enough RPI (44) and three top 50 RPI wins, so they aren't in real trouble yet but fall two seeds to a 9.

Virginia also drops two seeds, to a 10. The Cavaliers lost to North Carolina, which isn't awful, but they lost at home and they now have only 1 top 50 RPI win as Miami slipped to #54.

The Bubble: Can the Atlantic 10 have 5 teams in the tournament?

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
40	St. Louis	Atlantic 10	21-6	10-4	36	38	1	70.3	10
41	Cincinnati	Big East	20-8	10-5	74	46	5	69.0	11	-1
42	Northwestern	Big Ten	17-11	7-9	43	57	2	68.4	11	+1
43	Oral Roberts	Summit	26-5	17-1	42	32	0	64.5	11	+1
44	Saint Joseph's	Atlantic 10	19-11	9-6	51	27	2	64.0	11	+
45	Iona	Metro Atl	23-6	14-3	37	26	0	63.9	12	-1
46	Mississippi St.	SEC	19-10	6-8	63	48	3	63.6	12	-1
47	Harvard	Ivy League	23-4	10-2	38	45	1	61.2	12	-1
48	Dayton	Atlantic 10	18-10	8-6	61	34	3	56.1	12	+
49	Virginia Commonwealth	Colonial Ath	25-6	15-3	59	25	1	55.2	13
50	Texas	Big 12	18-11	8-8	53	72	3	54.3	13
51	Colorado St.	Mtn West	16-10	6-6	26	68	2	50.9	13	-1
52	Xavier	Atlantic 10	18-10	9-5	52	50	2	50.5	13	+
53	Washington	Pac-12	20-8	13-3	49	70	0	50.3	13	+
54	Arizona	Pac-12	21-9	12-5	69	55	1	49.5
55	South Florida	Big East	16-11	10-5	50	73	1	48.7		x
56	Louisiana St.	SEC	17-11	7-7	68	62	2	44.2		x
57	Middle Tennessee	Sun Belt	24-5	14-2	46	47	0	44.1	13	-1
58	Miami FL	ACC	16-10	7-6	54	71	1	42.2		x
59	Brigham Young	West Coast	22-7	12-4	48	67	1	40.7		x
60	Oregon	Pac-12	19-8	10-5	55	83	1	38.1

The Atlantic 10 had 2 teams in our brackets yesterday, but added three more teams on Saturday. Will they remain? Starting with St. Louis, the 2nd-ranked Atlantic 10 team on our list:

• The Billikens are a pretty solid selection at this point with a 21-6 overall record and 10-4 in conference. Their RPI and RealWins are well above bubble-level; their only drawback is having only 1 top 50 RPI win, and their #108 schedule strength doesn't offset that.
• St. Joseph's upset top conference team Temple, 82-72 yesterday, propelling them to the lowest 11-seed. Their Dance Chance percentage jumped from 36.6 to 64% as they moved from below the waterline to well above it. At 19-11 and 9-6 with a borderline 51 RPI they aren't a guarantee, but their #27 RealWins suggests their wins profile will get them in.
• Dayton moved into the brackets as a 12-seed, just above the play-in lines. The Flyers overwhelmed UMass 76-43, improving their RPI and RealWins enough to make the jump from just outside the listing. With a 61 RPI and only tied for 6th in conference standings, they're a definite bubble team and will probably bob above and below the waterline in the next few weeks.
• Xavier beat Richmond to improve to 18-10 and 9-5 in conference. Their 52 RPI and #50 RealWins puts them right on the 50/50 line, and currently they are a play-in team. It helps that they are 3rd in conference standings.

In the end, the Atlantic 10 will have at least two teams in the tournament, Temple and St. Louis, but they'll probably get a third and may have a fourth, so the bubble teams' performance in the conference tourney will be crucial.

Other bubble news: Northwestern remained in fair shape by beating Penn State, 67-66. Yes, they only won by a point, and it was only lowly Penn State. But it's a road win, and gives them a much-needed conference win as the 'Cats biggest liability is their poor record (17-11, 7-9). Their RPI is okay at #43, but their RealWins rank of #57 keeps them questionable. They have just 2 top 50 wins, but their SOS is a solid #12.

Mississippi State lost an opportunity, losing at Alabama 67-50 after an even first half. A road win could have put them well above the bubble; instead, they're questionable with a 6-8 conference record and #63 RPI, and fall a seed to a 12.

Many projected conference winners sit just above the bubble line. Which ones can survive a loss come conference tournament time?

• Oral Roberts is now 26-5. Their 17-1 conference record and 32 RealWins suggests they might not need to win their tournament, but their zero top 50 RPI wins and #172 SOS puts them in danger if they lose early.
• Iona has a strong RPI (36) and excellent RealWins (27) for a bubble team, but they, too have no wins over the top 50 in the RPI.
• Harvard lost to Penn 55-54—at home—on Saturday, once again putting them in jeopardy of having their great season end without an NCAA appearance. They're 10-2 in the Ivy League while Penn is 9-2. If they teams end up tied, there will be a playoff game to determine the winner. Harvard lost that game last year. Their Dance Chance odds of an at-large fell from 75% to 61% in one day. All of a sudden the Crimson might need to win the Ivy to get in.
• VCU is our top-ranked Colonial Athletic team though Drexel leads the conference. If the Rams don't win the conference they're likely below the bubble. Their #59 RPI is poor, but their #25 RealWins might get them a bid anyway. Last year's Final Four run probably doesn't hurt, either, as that has to be on the mind of the committee even if it isn't a true selection criteria.
• Middle Tennessee State was above the waterline until they lost to Western Kentucky yesterday. Now they probably need to win the Sun Belt tournament. Despite an above-the-bubble RPI of 46 and respectable RealWins of #47, they also have no top 50 RPI wins and their SOS (#173) doesn't mitigate that.

Play-in teams and below: Will the Pac-12 have 1, 2, 3, or 4 teams in?

Colorado State's loss to San Diego State helped solidify the pecking order in that conference, but the Rams aren't out of things yet. Their #26 RPI keeps them afloat with an assist from the Mountain West's strength this year.

Last team in as of today is Washington, and first team out is Arizona. Both move up a few notches from yesterday as the Huskies beat Washington State and the Wildcats topped UCLA. The Pac-12 has only one certain bid—California—but if there are teams on the borderline there is almost certain to be a 2nd team, at the very least. Oregon is also still alive at 10-5 in the conference.

Falling off the brackets today were: South Florida, despite being idle; LSU, blown out by Mississippi 72-48; Miami, FL, whose RPI fell 4 spots while they were idle; and BYU, who beat 6-23 Portland, causing their RPI to fall from 45 to 48 as their SOS fell from #89 to #105. No one ever said Bracketology made sense, especially with the RPI as a key factor.

Saturday Preview: Top 25 games' impact on NCAA seeds

Here's a preview of today's AP Top 25 action, and how these games affect the berths and seedings for the NCAA tournament according to our Dance Chance rankings:

• Vanderbilt (5-seed) at (#1) Kentucky (1-seed)
  Both teams are firmly in the tournament, but Vanderbilt has a great chance to move up while a Kentucky loss would probably cede the all-around #1 seed to Syracuse.
• #2 Syracuse (1-seed) at Connecticut (7-seed)
  The Orange are our current overall #1 seed and need to keeping winning to stay there. UConn is a strange case, and some have them on the bubble after their long tailspin. But many teams have made the tournament as an 8- or 9-seed after similar years (see Tennessee in 2000, or Texas in 2010). The Huskies alleviate doubt with a win, and a loss doesn't sink them, but if they finish with four straight losses things get dicey.

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
1	Syracuse	Big East	28-1	15-1	1	1	8	100%	1
2	Kentucky	SEC	27-1	13-0	4	2	6	100%	1
3	Duke	ACC	24-4	11-2	2	3	7	100%	1
4	North Carolina	ACC	24-4	11-2	5	7	6	100%	1	+1
5	Michigan St.	Big Ten	22-5	12-3	3	4	9	100%	2	-1
6	Marquette	Big East	24-5	13-3	8	6	6	100%	2	+1
7	Kansas	Big 12	23-5	13-2	6	10	9	100%	2
8	Ohio St.	Big Ten	23-5	11-4	7	5	7	100%	2
9	Missouri	Big 12	25-3	12-3	13	8	6	100%	3	-1

• #3 Missouri (3-seed) at #4 Kansas (2-seed)
  These teams both have a shot at a #1 seed, but today's loser is probably a 2-seed at best. The winner is still in line behind the ACC and Big Ten winners, hoping for stumbles among those competing teams.
• Virginia Tech (0.1% chance) at #5 Duke (1-seed)
  Duke is a fairly firm #1 seed right now, while Virginia Tech is on the cusp of having zero chance to get an at-large bid. At 15-13 and 4-9 in conference, they'd need to win out, make the ACC tournament final, and...then at 21-14 their chances aren't good. But beating Duke would be a start toward getting their RPI in the double-digits.
• Nebraska (0% chance) at #6 Michigan State (2-seed)
  The Spartans are neck-and-neck with North Carolina for the last 1-seed right now, and would get the nod in reality over a 2nd ACC team. A loss to Nebraska would change the dynamic, allowing Kansas or Missouri back in the mix, as well as Ohio State. Nebraska is 12-14 and out of the picture.
• #7 North Carolina (1-seed) at #25 Virginia (8-seed)
  The Tar Heels are a tenuous and probably unrealistic 1-seed right now in the Dance Chance, but if they keep winning and beat Duke twice they'll replace the Blue Devils in the top seed slot. Virginia is pretty well set for the tournament but a big win today would improve their standing a couple of seeds, as they currently have only two top 50 RPI wins.
• Villanova (0.1% chance) at #9 Georgetown (4-seed)
  Ignore the slim chance for Villanova to make the tournament; with 16 losses, there's no chance but the Dance Chance formula is pretty conservative when assigning 0.0%. Georgetown is one of many Big East teams that could finish all over the place (3rd to 6th seed).
• Purdue (9-seed) at #11 Michigan (3-seed)
  The Boilermakers' spot in the tourney isn't guaranteed at 18-10 and a 49 RPI, but with 5 top 50 RPI wins they're in pretty good shape. The Wolverines are a lock for all intents and purposes, and they won't get much higher than they are now. They could drift down to a 4- or 5-, though, with a poor finish.
• #12 Florida (3-seed) at Georgia (0.1% chance)
  The Gators are a weak 3-seed at best, and need to avoid upsets to have a chance to hold it. Georgia has 15 losses and really not much of a prayer with a 3-10 conference record. Another loss probably formally drops them to 0.0%. A win might put them at 0.2%
• Oklahoma (0.1%) at #13 Baylor (3-seed)
  The 14-13 Sooners are all but formally out of the running, but they have 3 top 50 RPI wins; still, an upset road win might only delay the inevitable. Baylor has slipped to a 3-seed in recent weeks. After being swept by Kansas and Missouri, it's doubtful that a Big Twelve tournament title would put them any higher than a 2-seed.
• #14 Murray State (8-seed) at Tennessee Tech (0% chance)
  The Racers need to keep winning to ensure a top-half seeding. Last year Utah State went 30-3 and got a 12-seed—and they were in the WAC, a conference much tougher than the Ohio Valley. So every additional loss hurts a lot, and each win is a tiny step upward.
• #18 New Mexico (8-seed) at TCU (0.1% chance)
  New Mexico is pretty set for the tournament, and is primarily concerned with their seeding the Mountain West conference tourney. Currently they have 1-game lead. TCU is a team with almost negligible chances, but unlike many other 0.1% teams they have the chance to put themselves on the bubble. Currently 15-11 against Div-I and 6-5 in conference, their RPI is around 100 but they have 3 top 50 wins. Beating New Mexico, Wyoming, and San Diego State would give them a fighting chance at an at-large berth that would come down to MWC tournament performance.
• Drake (0% chance) at #19 Wichita State (4-seed)
  The Shockers are in great shape and are essentially a 100% certainty for tournament berth with just 1 game left plus the Missouri Valley tournament. Like all mid-majors, though, their seeding is volatile, and a loss today would hurt. Drake won't make the tournament unless they win the MVC tourney.
• #20 Notre Dame (5-seed) at St. John's (0% chance)
  The Irish keep winning and slowly moving up the seed line. St. John's has 16 losses and is out of the running even for the NIT most likely. 
• Air Force (0% chance) at #21 UNLV (6-seed)
  UNLV has a #12 RPI but is only #27 in RealWins despite 5 top 50 RPI wins. That's what keeps them lower in our estimation than by some other bracketologists. Air Force is at best a CBI candidate with a strong finish.
• #22 Temple (4-seed) at St. Joseph's (36.6% chance)
  Temple's résumé is exceptional, with a 14 RPI and #11 RealWins. St. Joseph's is a true bubble team, 18-11 overall and 8-6 in the Atlantic 10. A win probably puts them above the play-in team borderline, as it would be an important 2nd top 50 RPI victory.
• Colorado State (12-seed) at #24 San Diego State (11-seed)
  Neither of these teams is guaranteed a spot, and both are probably in right now. Others generally have SDSU a few seeds higher and the Rams a borderline team, but there's not much difference between the two any more. The Aztec's overall record is better and they have a 1-game lead in the Mountain West, but their RPI is a bit lower. They have 4 top 50 wins to Colorado State's 2, but the Rams' schedule strength of #9 mitigates that argument. And if the Rams win today, that would be top 50 win #3 and a sweep of the Aztecs. Shouldn't the Rams be ahead of them in that case?

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
41	San Diego St.	Mtn West	19-6	7-4	31	61	4	77.2	11	-1
42	Mississippi St.	SEC	19-9	6-7	60	45	3	75.9	11
43	Harvard	Ivy League	23-3	10-1	34	44	1	75.1	11
44	Iona	Metro Atl	23-6	14-3	41	21	0	69.9	12	+1
45	Northwestern	Big Ten	16-11	6-9	47	57	2	68.8	12	-1
46	Colorado St.	Mtn West	16-9	6-5	23	63	2	67.7	12	-1

Revenge is Sweet: Duke, Murray State pay back FSU, Tennessee State with road wins

About a month ago, Florida State beat Duke on the Blue Devils' home court, 76-73. On February 9th, Tennessee State traveled to Murray State and handed the Racers their first loss of the season, 72-68.

Fast forward to last night. Duke avenged their home loss win a 74-66 win in Tallahassee, clarifying the ACC regular-season title race a bit by breaking the 3-way tie that had existed between the Blue Devils, Tar Heels, and Seminoles. Murray State invaded Tennessee State's home court and this time it was no contest; the Racers won easily, 80-62, after taking a 45-28 halftime lead. You think they were mad at the Tigers for spoiling their perfect record?

The Blue Devils move up to #7 in our Zeitgeist rankings from #9, while Murray State moves back into the top ten and Florida State falls out. 

The top ten consists of most of the usual suspects, with Syracuse, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, and Kansas all in the top six. Notably absent are North Carolina (#11) and Ohio State, who ranks #13 after losing two of their last four. Instead, mid-majors Wichita State and Temple ride lengthy winning streaks into the top ten.

prev Rnk Team                   Rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse               28-1   85.21  .W 56-48 #47 South Florida      
  2   2. Kentucky               27-1   74.22  ..W 73-64 @#78 Mississippi St.  
  3   3. Michigan St.           23-5   62.37  .W 66-61 @#103 Minnesota        
  4   4. Missouri               25-3   52.02  ..L 78-68 #59 Kansas St.        
  5   5. Notre Dame             20-8   50.72  .W 71-44 #75 West Virginia      
  6   6. Kansas                 23-5   50.60  .W 66-58 @#205 Texas A&M        
  9   7. Duke                   24-4   48.40  W 74-66 @#10 Florida St.        
  7   8. Wichita St.            25-4   47.58  .W 68-55 @#128 Illinois St.     
  8   9. Temple                 22-5   45.73  .W 80-79OT @#85 La Salle        
 14  10. Murray St.             27-1   41.47  W 80-62 @#59 Tennessee St.     

Of the two teams that made a major mid-season surge, Notre Dame has followed through better than the Seminoles, not losing since they beat Syracuse to start their great run. Florida State has now lost twice since their huge win over North Carolina and ranks #21, while the Irish eventually moved into the top five as their recent performance is heavily weighed.

Another, less pronounced payback: Gonzaga defeated BYU last night 74-63, avenging a road loss to the Cougars from early February. Of course, this type of thing (winning at home, losing on the road) is typical in conference play between teams of a certain parity—and isn't too uncommon among teams of disparate strength.

Badgers Upset by Iowa again

Another team that lost at home previously in conference play and had a chance for payback couldn't quite close the gap at the end. Iowa had defeated Wisconsin in Madison 72-65, way back on January 31st. For the rematch in Iowa City, the 15-13 Hawkeyes took it to the Badgers again, maintaining a 10-point lead for most of the game. Wisconsin got close late, and a last-second Badger three pointer made the final score Iowa 67, Wisconsin 66. Both teams shot the lights out early but it was Iowa's Matt Gatens who continued to do so in the 2nd half, and his two free throws at the end iced the game. He finished with 33 points after bashing Indiana for 31 on Sunday.

The two wins gave Iowa a monstrous boost in our Zeitgeist rankings, soaring the Hawks from #120 to #71 to #47 today, nearly putting them even with Wisconsin who has lost three of their last five. Here's a look at the jumps in the rankings since last Friday:

F17 F23  Team                    Rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
 30  42. Wisconsin              20-8   22.62  L 67-66 @#120 Iowa              
 27  43. Georgetown             20-6   22.56  ..L 73-55 @#63 Seton Hall       
 29  44. Memphis                20-8   22.31  .W 70-47 #210 East Carolina     
 28  45. Nevada                 22-5   21.98  .....L 90-84 @#59 Iona          
 33  46. George Mason           23-7   21.92  .L 85-82OT @#217 Northeastern   
120  47. Iowa                   15-13  21.30  W 67-66 #30 Wisconsin           
130  48. Texas El Paso          14-13  20.78  .W 76-68OT #12 Southern Mississip

The Hawkeyes are the highest-rated 11-, 12-, or 13-loss team, but not by much: Texas El Paso's huge upsets of both #29 Memphis and #12 Southern Miss gave them even more points and put them right behind Iowa. Of course to maintain their top 50 rankings, both teams will have to stay hot. The Zeitgeist tries to capture how teams are doing right now, so rankings change rapidly with each win and loss.

While beating top opponents allows teams to make big jumps, beating lowly teams doesn't help much, as a number of schools found out yesterday. Marquette, for example, only gained one place for beating #188 Rutgers 82-65. California's win over 5-22 Utah didn't even help the Golden Bears hold their place, as they drop from #24 to #25. Wagner held at #27 after beating #342 Bryant (2-27), Middle Tennessee State gained one place for beating #340 ULM (2-26), and South Dakota State earned four spots for a win over #200 Western Illinois. Contrast this with Cincinnati, who moved up 20 spots to #31 after edging #33 Louisville.

prev Rnk Team                   Rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
 24  25. California             23-6   29.13  W 60-46 @#323 Utah              
 25  26. Harvard                23-3   28.96  .....W 66-51 #100 Yale          
 27  27. Wagner                 24-4   27.99  W 86-73 @#342 Bryant            
 28  28. Nevada Las Vegas       23-6   27.40  .W 75-58 #123 Boise St.         
 30  29. Middle Tennessee       25-4   25.31  W 94-61 @#340 Louisiana Monroe  
 31  30. Washington             19-8   25.26  .....W 79-70 #37 Arizona        
 51  31. Cincinnati             20-8   24.88  W 60-56 #33 Louisville          
 36  32. South Dakota St.       23-7   24.82  W 74-57 #200 Western Illinois   

And of course, the lower you are in the rankings the easier it is to move up a whole lot of places. When you beat a relatively good team, it gets even easier. Binghamton ranked dead last at #345 and were 0-26 before upsetting Vermont, which gave them probably the biggest 1-day jump in our rankings this season (nearly 100 places). They fall back 18 spots from #247 to #265 after losing to Albany, but they still rank ahead of nearly two dozen teams with double-digit wins.

Vermont was #99 before Binghamton beat them, and that's what propelled the Bearcats so high. The Zeitgeist rankings have no real "memory" of past games, just a rating score that gets modified as new information comes in. It pays to beat good teams, though—even if you have to wait all season.

 

Dance Chance update Feb. 23, 2012: Every game counts now

At this stage of the season, every game is important and just a single game can move a team up or down a seed line. In fact, according to our Dance Chance rankings some teams that didn't play yesterday moved up or down two seed lines because of what their previous opponents did!

First, the top seeds. Syracuse and Michigan State both won last night, beating South Florida and Minnesota respectively. For the Orange, it means they re-take the overall #1 seed, while the Spartans nudge North Carolina out of a top seed spot.

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
1	Syracuse	Big East	28-1	15-1	1	1	8	100.0	1
2	Kentucky	SEC	27-1	13-0	4	2	6	100.0	1
3	Duke	ACC	23-4	10-2	3	3	6	100.0	1
4	Michigan St.	Big Ten	22-5	12-3	2	4	9	100.0	1	1
5	North Carolina	ACC	24-4	11-2	5	7	6	100.0	2	-1

We see the overall top seed switching back and forth between Syracuse and Kentucky until Selection Sunday. Due to conference strength, the Orange have the edge if neither team loses between then and now; note Syracuse's superior RPI and RealWins rank, along with more top 50 RPI wins.

North Carolina will have to push Duke out of the top seed if they want one themselves, since either MSU or Ohio State is very likely to claim the last one. Kansas and Missouri aren't far behind.

Multi-seed moves since yesterday

Four teams made moves of two seeds since yesterday, and not all the moves are for obvious reasons—such as, you know, winning or losing a game.

For example, Alabama went from a 10-seed to an 8-seed since yesterday, and they didn't play a game. Two reasons: one, they were the highest 10-seed, and are now the lowest 8-seed, so it was closer to a 1-seed jump anyway; and two, they added an extra top 50 win as Purdue made their way into the top 50 of the RPI. Having 2 of these instead of 1 is a big help.

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
32	Alabama	SEC	17-9	6-6	38	35	2	96.8	8	+2
33	West Virginia	Big East	17-11	7-8	44	32	4	92.2	9
34	Murray St.	Ohio Valley	23-1	13-1	39	48	3	90.6	9
35	St. Mary's	West Coast	21-5	12-2	35	58	3	90.6	9
36	Iowa St.	Big 12	20-8	10-5	43	46	2	90.1	9	+1
37	California	Pac-12	22-6	12-3	32	41	0	89.3	10	-1
38	Purdue	Big Ten	18-10	8-7	50	37	5	88.6	10
39	St. Louis	Atlantic 10	21-5	10-3	23	28	0	88.5	10	-2
40	San Diego St.	Mtn West	19-6	7-4	30	56	4	79.9	10	+2

St. Louis went the opposite direction, falling from an 8 to a 10, and it was a real 2-seed fall of 8 positions in our listing. The reason was the same as Alabama's (actually the converse): they lost their only top 50 RPI win when St. Joseph's RPI rank dropped from #47 to #57. Having no top 50 RPI wins is a bad thing. It won't keep the Billikens out of the tournament, but doesn't help their seed.

San Diego State moved up two seeds—from a low 12 to the lowest 10—after beating Wyoming in overtime. Close don't matter—a win is a win, and the Aztecs benefit from a better overall and conference record, while their RPI moves from 35 to 30 and their RealWins ranking jumps from a very poor #70 to a bubble-worthy #56. All accounted for, with the strength of the Mountain West this year, that puts SDSU well above the bubble line.

Speaking of the bubble...

Iona is another team that fell 2 seeds—also without playing—and they happen to be on the bubble. We're giving them the Metro Atlantic for an automatic bid, but if they don't win their conference tournament things are dicey for the Gaels. They also lost their only top 50 RPI win—like St. Louis, the culprit was St. Joseph's, whom Iona beat in overtime early in the season.

South Florida actually moves up a seed, which is interesting considering that they lost last night. But the loss was to Syracuse, on the road, and due to the RPI's heavy reliance on strength of schedule, their RPI improved from 50 to 48. They're still 10-5 in the Big East, which is very good. 16-11 overall isn't very good, and that's why they're touch and go.

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
48	South Florida	Big East	16-11	10-5	48	66	1	58.6	12	+1
49	Iona	Metro Atl	22-6	13-3	42	30	0	58.6	13	-2
50	Louisiana St.	SEC	17-10	7-6	63	59	2	56.0	13	+
51	Miami FL	ACC	16-10	7-6	49	64	1	55.0	13
52	Texas	Big 12	17-11	7-8	56	70	3	54.7	13	+
53	Brigham Young	West Coast	21-6	11-3	46	65	1	50.1	13
54	Xavier	Atlantic 10	17-10	8-5	53	52	2	49.8
55	Illinois	Big Ten	16-12	5-10	72	51	4	49.6		x
56	Dayton	Atlantic 10	17-10	7-6	68	39	3	48.6
57	North Carolina State	ACC	18-10	7-6	62	62	1	48.2
58	Washington	Pac-12	19-8	12-3	52	72	0	48.0
59	Arizona	Pac-12	19-9	10-5	66	63	1	45.4
60	Saint Joseph's	Atlantic 10	18-11	8-6	57	40	1	40.0		x
61	Oregon	Pac-12	19-8	10-5	51	76	0	39.8

LSU and Texas jump into the play-in slots. The Tigers beat Georgia to put themselves a game above .500 in the SEC, though the rest of their numbers are dragging them down. They do have two top 50 wins.

Texas moved back into the mix, but not by winning or adding a top 50 win. Most of their previous opponents tended to win yesterday, pushing their RPI up a few notches to #56 and their RealWins from #76 to #70.

Meanwhile Illinois fell out of the play-in field due to similar drops in RPI and RealWins; unlike Texas' opponents, the Illini's didn't do well yesterday on average.

As covered above, St. Joseph's took a hit with their 52-49 home loss to Richmond, with their RPI falling 10 spots. Instead of being the third Atlantic 10 school in the seedings, they're third in line—behind Xavier and Dayton—to get back in the mix.

Other conferences with multiple bubble teams include the Pac-12 and ACC. The former has only California in our seedings, with Washington, Arizona, and Oregon looking to secure a spot. All have great conference records—in a huge down year for the league—but dismal RPIs and a general dearth of top 50 wins. It's hard to believe the Pac-12 would get only one bid, so some team other than the Golden Bears will make it. But if the Wildcats, Huskies, or Ducks win the Pac-12 tournament, that team and Cal might be it.

The ACC has Duke and North Carolina fighting for a #1 seed; Florida State fighting for the conference championship; and Virginia a pretty solid selection. After that, Miami is hanging on by a thread and N.C. State is trying to climb their way back in.

Missouri falls at home to Kansas State 78-68, loses #1 seed

The Kansas State Wildcats pulled off another big upset, beating Missouri in Columbia 78-68, just days after beating Baylor in Waco. The win bumps K-State up three full seeds to a #8 in our latest Dance Chance projections, and topples Missouri from their perch as a #1 seed.

The Tigers fall all the way to the last 2-seed slot, while North Carolina, who beat North Carolina State last night 86-74, slides up into the last #1 seed, joining ACC member Duke.

Dance Chance projections for games through February 21, 2012:

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
1	Kentucky	SEC	27-1	13-0	2	2	6	100.0	1
2	Syracuse	Big East	27-1	14-1	1	1	7	100.0	1
3	Duke	ACC	23-4	10-2	3	3	6	100.0	1
4	North Carolina	ACC	24-4	11-2	5	6	6	100.0	1	+1
5	Michigan St.	Big Ten	21-5	11-3	4	4	7	100.0	2
6	Kansas	Big 12	22-5	12-2	6	8	9	100.0	2
7	Ohio St.	Big Ten	23-5	11-4	7	5	6	100.0	2
8	Missouri	Big 12	25-3	12-3	14	7	6	100.0	2	-1

It's very doubtful that the ACC will get two #1 seeds, and by Selection Sunday this shouldn't be the case. What it does show is that both teams are strong candidates for the spot, and one of them is very likely to get it. The other position probably goes to Michigan State or Kansas, though Ohio State and Missouri are in the mix, too. In other words, the top seeds will likely be Kentucky, Syracuse, a team from the ACC, and the last slot goes to either the Big Ten or Big Twelve winner, with the Big Ten having the edge.

The battle for the overall #1 seed is tight between Syracuse and Kentucky. The Wildcats' undefeated conference record gives them the edge right now, but the Orange have the edge in RPI and RealWins, and if both win out and win their tournaments Syracuse probable comes out on top. Though the difference is much closer than in recent years, the Big East is still tougher than the SEC.

Bubble report: Colorado State makes move after New Mexico upset

Colorado State knocked off New Mexico 71-63 last night, giving the Rams' NCAA hopes a big boost. At 16-9 and 6-5 in a mid-major they may need to do more work, but the Mountain West is strong this year which helps. Their RPI is #25, which is almost at lock level, but their RealWins profile ranks #60, suggesting that other than their 2 top 50 RPI wins they are somewhat shy of what the committee wants to see. But for now they are firmly above water as an 11-seed, and remarkably they move ahead of San Diego State (18-6) who has a better overall record but a lower RPI and RealWins ranking. The Aztecs host the Rams on Saturday in what should settle the 3rd place battle in the Mountain West and could put one of these teams in, and take one out.

Northwestern also manages to stay above the waterline despite their overtime loss to Michigan last night. The Wildcats were right on the bubble before beating Minnesota (which sent the Gophers tumbling off the bubble), and a win over Michigan might have nearly clinched their first NCAA appearance. Instead they're still vulnerable, with a poor 16-11 overall, a losing conference record at 6-9, and bubble-level RPI and RealWins. What keeps them afloat is their two top 50 RPI wins and #6 schedule strength.

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
42	Northwestern	Big Ten	16-11	6-9	48	54	2	67.0	11
43	Iona	Metro Atl	22-6	13-3	44	29	1	66.2	11
44	Colorado St.	Mtn West	16-9	6-5	25	60	2	65.0	11	+
45	Middle Tennessee	Sun Belt	23-4	13-1	38	40	0	64.4	12
46	Cincinnati	Big East	19-8	9-5	81	44	4	63.5	12
47	San Diego St.	Mtn West	18-6	6-4	35	70	4	62.7	12	-1
48	Oral Roberts	Summit	25-5	16-1	45	33	0	61.8	12
49	South Florida	Big East	16-10	10-4	50	63	1	58.6	13	+
50	Miami FL	ACC	16-10	7-6	49	59	1	57.0	13	-1
51	Saint Joseph's	Atlantic 10	18-10	8-5	47	38	1	53.2	13
52	Brigham Young	West Coast	21-6	11-3	46	62	1	51.1	13	+
53	Illinois	Big Ten	16-12	5-10	69	50	4	50.9	13
54	Washington	Pac-12	19-8	12-3	51	69	0	49.5
55	Arizona	Pac-12	19-9	10-5	68	57	1	47.1
56	Texas	Big 12	17-11	7-8	58	76	3	47.0		x
57	Xavier	Atlantic 10	17-10	8-5	56	52	2	46.0		x
58	North Carolina State	ACC	18-10	7-6	64	61	1	45.4		x
59	Minnesota	Big Ten	17-10	5-9	76	53	2	41.8

Three minor conference leaders hold on to their at-large berth possibilities: Iona (Metro Atlantic), Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt), and Oral Roberts (Summit) all have good enough résumés at the moment to have a solid chance of getting a bid even if they don't win their conference. Of course, depending on when those losses happen in the conference tournament could change that; all three are just above the play-in line so nothing is guaranteed.

South Florida has won four Big East games in a row (including home and away wins over Pittsburgh) and join the hunt for an at-large bid. Their overall record of 16-10 is not impressive, but their 10-4 Big East record is; they are currently in 4th place, ahead of Georgetown and Louisville. Their RPI is borderline, their RealWins score needs work, and they need a few more big wins, but they're in the mix now.

Meanwhile USF's in-state rival Miami dips into the play-in territory after losing to Maryland last night, 75-70. Joining them in the Last Four is BYU (21-6), who at 11-3 is now tied for 2nd place in the West Coast Conference with Gonzaga, though both the 'Zags (6-seed) and St. Mary's (9) are well above the Cougars in our projections. Comparing the three, the teams all have nearly similar overall and conference records, but BYU's RPI (46) is much lower as is their RealWins rank of #62, and the Cougars have just 1 big win to 3 for both of the other teams.

Texas, Xavier, and North Carolina State all drop off the ledger this time around. The Longhorns were a play-in team a few days ago and nearly beat Baylor which would have lifted them above the bubble, but the 77-72 home loss dumped them below it instead. The Musketeers were upset by Massachusetts 80-73 last night, while the Tar Heels dropped their third game in a row to a conference co-leader last night, falling to North Carolina 86-74. None of the three teams is out of it; we still show each of them above a 45% chance, so it wouldn't be a shock to see any of them make it back into the listing, or even get a surprise bid if they don't improve their fortunes that much.

Speaking of teams that are oh-so-close to being above-water, the Pac-12 has two such teams: Washington and Arizona. Both have decent overall records and stellar conference records, but are weighed down by poor and/or dismal RPI and RealWins rankings. Contrast this with Illinois, who is listed as our last team in: the Illini are just 16-12, and an awful 5-10 in the Big Ten, with a #69 RPI and borderline #50 RealWins. How on earth do they get the last bid? The answer is, they probably don't. Washington at 12-3 in the Pac-12 would get the bid, and Arizona is also probably ahead of the Illini in reality. But a spot here and there in an algorithmic system will always have flukes.

What keeps Illinois ahead of the Pac-12 teams in the Dance Chance is their 4 top 50 RPI wins, contrasting with Washington and Arizona's 1 win combined. I think that their chances here are overstated, but it does show that even after losing 6 in a row and 9 of their last 10, they still have a chance to make the tournament if they finish strong. Having wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, and Gonzaga on your résumé will do that.

0-26 Binghamton upsets America East leader Vermont, 57-53

It's been a few weeks since Murray State, the nation's last unbeaten team, got their first loss. On the other side of the spectrum, it was looking pretty certain that Binghamton would end the season winless.

But Tuesday night the Bearcats upset America East conference co-leader Vermont, 57-53. They took a shocking 35-25 halftime lead and held on for their first win in front of a home crowd. The Catamounts shot only 32% for the evening.

The win was surprising for several reasons. On February 15th, Binghamton seemingly blew their last good chance for a win, falling at home 70-56 to 3-22 Maryland Baltimore County. After losing to Radford on the 18th, the Bearcats had three games remaining: Vermont (19-10), Albany (17-13), and New Hampshire (12-14). According to Ken Pomeroy's odds, there was an 80% chance they'd end the season winless.

America East    Conf      All
Vermont         12-2     19-10
Stony Brook     12-2     18-8 
Boston          10-4     14-15
Albany           8-7     17-13
Hartford         7-7      8-19
New Hampshire    6-8     12-14
Maine            5-9     11-15
MD Balt Cty      3-11     4-23
Binghamton       0-13     0-26
America East conference standings prior to the game

And their odds of beating Vermont, even playing at home, were given as only 4%. The Catamounts were 12-2 in the America East and were our projected favorite to make the NCAA tournament. Having defeated Binghamton 73-53 back in January, they were a 19-point favorite tonight according to our Strength power rating.

Whether Vermont was overconfident, just had a horrible shooting night, or Binghamton somehow managed their best play against the conference's top team, we don't know. The heroes for Binghamton were Robert Mansell with 18 points, and Ben Dickinson with 16 points and 11 rebounds.

The program has a ways to go under Mark Macon. They went from 23-9 the year before he arrived (and a recruiting scandal rocked the school) to 13-18 his first season, 8-23 last year, and 1-26 so far in 2011-2012. But congratulations are in order to Macon and Binghamton for avoiding the winless season, and doing it in style by beating the conference leader.

Nebraska Omaha jumps to #1 in RPI--or #0, or # nothing--according to Yahoo-Rivals

Fans of the Nebraska Omaha Mavericks finally have something to brag about this season—they're number one in the RPI. At least, according to Yahoo/Rivals. And they're really number 0, or number "blank". But still, that's pretty good for an 11-16 team! What happened?

Just a few weeks ago we noticed that some RPIs around the web mistakenly include Nebraska Omaha in their calculations. Since Nebraska Omaha isn't considered a full-fledged Division I team—a school can play only 4 non-Division I teams to qualify per the NCAA's rules—including them in the calculation was causing some discrepancies in the RPI figures for other teams. Any site with an RPI that lists 345 teams is no doubt making this mistake, as there should be only 344 teams on the list.

It looks like Rivals got the message, or figured it out on their own, but they seem to be having trouble extricating the Mavericks from their list; they now show up on top of the heap.

When viewed on Yahoo/Rivals' rankings page, it looks like Nebraska Omaha is #1. When viewed in full, Nebraska Omaha is not at #1, per se, but at #0, or # "nothing." Their computer program has some kind of glitch and doesn't quite know what to do with the Mavericks—it doesn't count them, but still lists them. Where do you list a team that doesn't count? At the top, apparently.

Here are a couple of amusing screen shots from Monday's RPI listing at Yahoo Sports:

Above: Yahoo/Rivals' RPI listing on morning of Monday, February 20

Above: Yahoo/Rivals' RPI expanded listing on morning of Monday, February 20

Rivals' RPI calculations, however, have been fixed, since Colorado State's numbers—and those of other Nebraska Omaha opponents—seem to be correct now. The process of culling Nebraska Omaha from the cohort just ended up listing them at the top as a fluke, causing a great deal of confusion among those who rely on Rivals' RPI numbers. In trying to fix their mistake, they've made things even worse. Not people noticed or cared about the error when Nebraska Omaha was listed around #300, but putting them at the top raised eyebrows!

Note that in Rivals' expanded listing Nebraska Omaha has no RPI value and no Strength of Schedule rank, so they aren't being included in the calculation. But the computer is going ahead and figuring out their performance against the top 50, top 100, etc. Since Yahoo/Rivals tracks them in the conference standings, they are probably on the Yahoo Sports' master list of Division I basketball teams, so they're being made a special case when it comes to the RPI. So far they aren't handling that special case very well.

It's surprising that it took Yahoo most of the basketball season to realize their mistake. Nebraska-Omaha's inclusion in their RPI was one of the things that prompted us to start calculating the RPI ourselves instead of wondering who is getting it right or wrong.

We assume they'll fix it pretty soon. For now, though, enjoy the amusing screen shots.

Zeitgeist Top 25 for February 20th: New Mexico into top 10

The top ten of this week's version of the Zeitgeist rankings is mostly unchanged. New Mexico's big win over UNLV put the Lobos in the the Rebels out, while Ohio State's loss to Michigan let Duke slip in.

The top six were unchanged, as all these teams won all their contests but with the separation among the top teams, none could pass the team ahead of them.

• #1 Syracuse (27-1) beat Louisville 52-51 and Rutgers 74-64
• #2 Kentucky (26-1) played only Mississippi, winning 77-62
• #3 Missouri (25-2) beat Oklahoma State 83-65 and Texas A&M 71-62
• #4 Michigan State (22-5) beat Wisconsin 69-55 and Purdue 76-62
• #5 Kansas (22-5) beat Kansas State 59-53 and Texas Tech 83-50
• #6 Notre Dame (19-8) beat Rutgers 71-53 and rallied big to beat Villanova 74-70 in overtime

All of the top five can be found in the top ten of the AP poll, while Notre Dame's high rank here is due to their recent run of success that dates back to their upset of Syracuse on January 21; including that game they've won eight straight.

The top new entry in the top ten is New Mexico (22-4) who crushed former #9 Nevada Las-Vegas, 65-45 on Saturday. Along with a 77-67 win at ex-#17 San Diego State, this allowed the Lobos to establish a 2-game lead in the Mountain West.

Rounding out the top ten, Wichita State (24-4) held at #8 after beating Missouri State 73-58 and winning their Bracketbusters matchup against Davidson 91-74; Temple (21-5) moved up a spot to #9 with wins over St. Bonaventure (76-70) and Duquesne (78-59); and Duke (23-4) slipped back into the top 10 after beating North Carolina State 78-73 after a huge late rally, then crushing Boston College 75-50.

 LW  Rnk Team                   Rec   Rating  Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse               27-1   80.92  W 74-64 @#152 Rutgers           
  2   2. Kentucky               26-1   71.24  .W 77-62 #103 Mississippi       
  3   3. Missouri               25-2   65.02  .W 71-62 @#205 Texas A&M        
  4   4. Michigan St.           22-5   60.11  W 76-62 @#80 Purdue             
  5   5. Kansas                 22-5   49.86  .W 83-50 #263 Texas Tech        
  6   6. Notre Dame             19-8   47.73  .W 74-70OT @#149 Villanova      
 14   7. New Mexico             22-4   46.25  .W 65-45 #9 Nevada Las Vegas    
  8   8. Wichita St.            24-4   45.73  .W 91-74 @#74 Davidson          
 10   9. Temple                 21-5   43.00  .W 78-59 #97 Duquesne           
 11  10. Duke                   23-4   40.55  W 75-50 @#148 Boston College    
 12  11. Florida St.            19-7   39.23  .W 76-62 @#67 North Carolina St.
 19  12. Murray St.             26-1   37.74  .W 65-51 #23 St. Mary's         
 16  13. Oral Roberts           25-5   37.68  .W 67-61 #51 Akron              
 21  14. North Carolina         23-4   36.64  .W 74-52 #197 Clemson           
  7  15. Ohio St.               22-5   36.61  .L 56-51 @#33 Michigan          
 33  16. Michigan               20-7   35.03  .W 56-51 #7 Ohio St.            
 20  17. Marquette              22-5   33.63  .W 79-64 @#121 Connecticut      
 29  18. Florida                21-6   33.18  .W 98-68 @#58 Arkansas          
 22  19. St. Louis              22-5   32.97  .W 66-46 #230 Fordham           
 26  20. Drexel                 23-5   31.88  .W 69-49 @#91 Cleveland St.     
 13  21. Southern Mississippi   22-5   30.48  .L 73-71 @#239 Houston          
 36  22. Creighton              23-5   29.67  .W 81-79 #42 Long Beach St.     
 39  23. California             22-6   29.02  .W 77-63 #150 Oregon St.        
 31  24. Harvard                23-3   28.96  .W 66-51 #102 Yale              
 15  25. Wisconsin              20-7   28.28  W 65-55 #182 Penn St.           

Right behind Duke is the second ACC team tied for the lead in that conference, Florida State (19-7). The Seminoles kept pace with Duke and #14 North Carolina (23-4), beating Virginia Tech 48-47 as well as N.C. State on Saturday. The Tar Heels jumped seven spots after defeating Miami 73-64 and Clemson 74-52.

Mid-majors, or rather, minor conference powers Murray State (26-1) and Oral Roberts (25-5) moved up with two wins apiece; the Racers beat SE Missouri State 75-66, and in the biggest Bracketbusters battle, downed ex-#23 St. Mary's in dominating fashion 65-51. The Golden Eagles beat IUPU Fort Wayne 75-71 then won their own Bracketbusters contest over Akron 67-61.

In the Big Ten, former #33 Michigan (20-7) leapt to #16 after beating Illinois 70-61 then topping 22-5 Ohio State 56-51. The Buckeyes fell from #7 to #15, remaining one place above the Wolverines.

Marquette (22-5) and St. Louis (22-5) moved up three spots each to #17 and #19. Marquette beat struggling UConn, while St. Louis won twice in Atlantic 10 play. Jumping in at #18 and #20 are Florida (21-6) and Colonial Athletic co-leader Drexel (23-5). The Gators beat Alabama and Arkansas, while the Dragons beat William & Mary and then topped the Horizon's Cleveland State 69-49 in a Bracketbusters contest.

Southern Miss (22-5) may be starting to slump; this week they edged Tulsa in overtime but fell to Houston in a big upset; they fall to #21 from #13. Meanwhile Creighton (23-5) broke their 3-game slump with a win at Southern Illinois, and followed it up with a huge 81-79 Bracketbusters win over Long Beach State. The Bluejays leap back into the top 25 at #22.

California (22-6) and Harvard (23-3) moved back in as well, each with a pair of home wins. The Bears make a big leap from #39 to #23 by sweeping Oregon and Oregon State, while Harvard's Friday-Saturday stint included wins over Brown and Yale.

Wisconsin (20-7) rounds out the top 25, falling ten spots after losing to Michigan State. The Badgers recovered somewhat with a win over Penn State.

The dropouts

This week six teams fell out of the top 25. Most of them are in the midst of a losing streak, something of which the Zeitgeist rankings aren't very forgiving:

• #25 Baylor (22-5) started the week well with a 79-64 win over Iowa State, but fell to #28 due to their 57-56 home loss to Kansas State, their 3rd loss in four games.
• Gonzaga (21-5) fell from #18 to #30 after being upset by San Francisco 66-65.
• UNLV (22-6) lost to TCU 102-97 in overtime, then were drubbed by New Mexico for their 3rd loss in four games. The Rebels drop from #9 all the way to #31.
• #24 Louisville (21-6) only lost to Syracuse by a point, then needed overtime to beat DePaul. The Cardinals fell to #34.
• After losing to New Mexico, San Diego State (20-6) was upset by Air Force 58-56 on Saturday for their 3rd loss in a row and 4th in six games. Recently in the top ten, the Aztecs tumble from #17 to #47 this week.
• Finally, the biggest slump of all may belong to St. Mary's (23-5). The Gaels were 75-60 upset victims to Loyola Marymount, then were crushed in their Bracketbusters contest at Murray State. They've lost 3 of their last 4 games after a 22-2 start and fall from #23 last week to #50 this week.

That's four teams who are 1-3 over the last two weeks, all of whom were in the top ten just a few weeks ago.

The biggest games in the coming week include a key ACC battle between #10 Duke and #11 Florida State on Thursday, as well as a Big Twelve showdown between #3 Missouri and #5 Kansas on Saturday.

Two HUGE road comebacks: Notre Dame and UC Davis win after being down 20

The luck of the Irish was in full force on Saturday as Notre Dame mounted a huge comeback from 20 points down to beat Villanova 78-74 in overtime.

But that wasn't the only huge comeback on Saturday: UC Davis came back from 21 points down to win, 70-65 at Northern Arizona.

Both home teams took huge leads at the half: Villanova was up 39-23 and Northern Arizona led 45-26. But Notre Dame won the 2nd half 37-21 and UC Davis had an amazing 44-20 advantage in the 2nd period.

Notre Dame's comeback actually started late in the 1st half; down 39-19, they scored the final four points of the half, then came back with 3-point shooting and late mistakes by Villanova. The overtime win completed Notre Dame's 8th straight victory to put them 19-8 on the year.

The Aggies also hit their low point in the 1st half, down 41-20, but after that more than doubled Northern Arizona's output. Harrison DuPont scored 19 points off the bench, overcoming 26 from Durrell Norman who hit 14 of 16 free throws. The game was part of the Bracketbusters series.

Neither team has had much success this year, even for half a game. UC Davis improved to 4-22, while Northern Arizona fell to 5-22.

Kentucky passes Ohio State for #1 in Strength power rating

For most of the season, Ohio State has been a solid #1 in our Strength power rating, which is a "pure" power rating using margins of victory. In the last few weeks, Kentucky has been pushing upwards and Ohio State slipping a bit, and as of yesterday (Feb. 18) the Wildcats have passed the Buckeyes at #1.

Strength power rating top ten through February 18, 2012:
#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Kentucky                  26-1     24.29
2.  Ohio St.                  22-5     24.21
3.  Kansas                    22-5     22.19
4.  Michigan St.              21-5     21.79
5.  North Carolina            23-4     21.74
6.  Syracuse                  26-1     21.63
7.  Missouri                  25-2     20.15
8.  Wisconsin                 19-7     19.38
9.  Indiana                   20-6     19.00
10. Wichita St.               24-4     18.91

In other power ratings around the web, Kentucky took over #1 recently in Ken Pomeroy's tempo-free ratings, and as been #1 in the LRMC rankings for a while. In Jeff Sagarin's Predictor rating, however, Ohio State maintains a slim lead at #1.

The Buckeyes have lost two of their last three games, which in and of itself doesn't affect their standing in any of these power ratings, none of which care about winning and losing per se, just margin of victory. Of course, losing a game means your margin of victory was negative, when you're talking about the top teams, there's no way to lose and increase your standing due to superior competition. And while Ohio State has been fading, Kentucky has been turning it up, beating good teams by wide margins.

Here is Ohio State's chart for the year:

Note the lower performance over the last four games.

And now Kentucky:

Conversely, the Wildcats have done very well over the last six games on average, after a long, consistent run of wins.

Over the 2nd half of the season so far (from January 1st), the teams are still #1 and #2:

num  Team                    record    rating
1.  Kentucky                  26-1     24.15
2.  Ohio St.                  22-5     23.96
3.  Michigan St.              21-5     23.58
4.  Kansas                    22-5     23.31
5.  New Mexico                22-4     21.00
6.  Syracuse                  26-1     19.72
7.  Wichita St.               24-4     18.94
8.  Missouri                  25-2     18.76
9.  North Carolina            23-4     18.35
10. Florida St.               19-7     16.99 

Over the last seven games for each team, however, the Buckeyes fall to near the bottom of the top ten:

num  Team                    record    rating
1.  Kentucky                  26-1     28.88
2.  New Mexico                22-4     27.12
3.  Michigan St.              21-5     25.34
4.  Kansas                    22-5     22.52
5.  Wichita St.               24-4     21.12
6.  Michigan                  20-7     19.77
7.  North Carolina            23-4     19.50
8.  Belmont                   21-7     19.39
9.  Ohio St.                  22-5     19.33
10. Notre Dame                19-8     19.00

The longer the season goes, the less the ratings change as more games are averaged in, so sometimes looking at recent trends is interesting. Is Ohio State in a slump, or have they just hit a bad patch of luck? Is Kentucky really playing on all cylinders, or is this just an upward blip?

It seems more likely that Ohio State's slump is real than Kentucky's surge. The Wildcats have already come back down to earth, and the Buckeyes actually lost two games, so it wasn't just a random fluctuation in their margin of victory.

2012 Bracketbusters Preview: Which games will make a difference?

The Bracketbusters schedule kicked off with two games on Friday, and there are 67 more games on Saturday, 11 of which are televised on ESPN's various channels. The final two games are played on Sunday and are untelevised.

Last night's action saw Virginia Commonwealth down Northern Iowa, 77-68, and Loyola Marymount beat Valparaiso 61-53.

VCU's win improves their meager chance of an at-large bid (which we put at 3.2% Thursday), while harming UNI's bid chances quite a bit. The Panthers were at 33.1% but still well off the bubble in the last Dance Chance, and their overall record of 16-12 is a big issue. They aren't going to be favored to win the Missouri Valley with Wichita State and Creighton around, so the at-large was their hope but this loss hurts. VCU is looking good at 23-6 but their RPI is still only 75 after the win. The Rams will be in a tough battle to win the Colonial Athletic tournament, something they'll still probably have to do to get in the tournament. In other words, this bracketbusters game didn't really change the overall equation for either team: VCU strengthens the 14-seed that they'll get if they win the CAA, while UNI falls even farther off the bubble.

As for Loyola Marymount (18-10) and Valparaiso (19-10), neither team had much hope of an at-large bid going in, and neither comes out with much; both are at 0.1% in the Dance Chance, our lowest designation below "impossible" so a conference win is a must for all intents and purposes. So despite the win, the Lions have the tougher road—winning the West Coast Conference tournament against such foes as Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and BYU. In the Horizon Valpo's toughest obstacle is Cleveland State.

Which of Saturday's games will make a difference? Here are the most important matchups among the televised games, in order of our projected seeding in the Dance Chance (all times Eastern):

• #30 (8) Saint Mary's (23-4) at #44 (11) Murray State (25-1) 6:00pm ESPN/ESPN2
  This is still the marquee matchup but recent losses have diminished its value. Murray State was undefeated and St. Mary's had just 2 losses when the field was announced; now the Racers are 25-1 and the Gaels 23-4, which still makes for an important game. Murray State is no lock for the tournament if they take a few more losses, as their RPI is currently #46. St. Mary's is in a solid position but can improve their #46 RealWins ranking. Both teams will get a needed SOS boost; St. Mary's is #118 and Murray State a dismal #241.
• #63 (13) Nevada (22-4) at #51 (13) Iona (21-6) 4:00pm ESPN/ESPN2
  Here's a game that really could make a difference in terms of who gets an at-large bid. Both teams are currently projected to make the tournament for winning their conferences, and Iona is a bubble team as an at-large (they'd be a play-in team the way things stand now). So this outcome is huge for both. Nevada's Dance Chance is 28.4%, with their strong 22-4/10-1 record in the WAC weighed down by a #56 RPI and #69 RealWins tally, with no top 50 wins. Winning the WAC is likely the only path for the Wolf Pack if they lose Saturday. Iona puts themselves above or below the bubble depending on Saturday's outcome. The Metro Atlantic doesn't often see at-large bids, so the Gaels have little margin for error. The Bracketbusters might be more significant for them than any other team.
• #72 (14) Akron (19-7) at #46 (12) Oral Roberts (24-5) 2:00pm ESPN2
  Like the matchup above, both these teams are "in" right now, Akron for "winning" the MAC, and Oral Roberts for winning the Summit, but the Golden Eagles are treading just above the bubble line, too. A win by Oral Roberts—particularly at home—won't solidify that very much, and a loss could put them below the bubble. Their 16-1 conference record is great but in a minor conference that doesn't carry much weight; they do, however, have an excellent profile of overall wins—they are #32 in RealWins—to offset their zero top 50 RPI victories. Akron has a slim (11%) chance of getting an at-large bid, but beating Oral Roberts would put them a big step closer to the bubble.
• #12 (3) Wichita State (23-4) at #70 (14) Davidson (20-6) 12:00 noon ESPN2
  Another two teams that should make the tournament one way or another, but while the Shockers are a near-lock at this point, Davidson will need to win the Southern conference—unless they pull off the upset, which would elevate their 16.4% chance of an at-large bid to near-bubble status. The Wildcats have a near-prohibitive RPI (#70) that needs a boost. Wichita State is a weak 3-seed in our latest projection, but we rate them higher than most. A loss would take that possibility off the table, while a win doesn't help them any more than a decent MVC victory. It would give them a solid road win, which is always good, so it isn't a complete no-win situation for the Shockers.
• #73 (14) Long Beach State (19-6) at #23 (6) Creighton (22-5) 10:00pm ESPN2
  Creighton is another Missouri Valley team, and like Wichita State they are facing a much lower-rated team, one well outside the bubble that needs a big win. Unlike the Shockers, however, Creighton is playing at home and is in need of a solid win to halt a recent slide. The Blue Jays lost three straight—including an 89-68 home embarrassment to Wichita State—to drop them to at least a 6-seed. They recovered with a win over Southern Illinois, but beating the 49ers would show that their season is going to end strong, not go wrong. Long Beach, too, needs a big win. Their RPI is excellent and certainly bubble-worthy (#42) but their RealWins rank (#116) shows that this is due to a padded record and a few strong opponents keeping their SOS out of the gutter. Many bracketologists have them in as an at-large but without beating Creighton I don't like their odds.
• #79 Drexel (22-5) at #76 (15) Cleveland State (22-7) 11am ESPNU
  Both of these teams are in very tight conference races. Drexel leads the CAA along with George Mason but we list VCU as the top team right now by a hair. Cleveland State is our probable Horizon representative but Valparaiso leads the league and four other teams are within a game or two. So neither team will have it easy come conference tournament time. And neither team will have much of an at-large chance whether they win or lose this game. Let's put it this way: if both teams end up winning their conference tournaments, the winner of this game will be a 14-seed, the loser, a 15. To be fair, it is a lot harder to beat a 2-seed than a 3-seed...
• #98 Buffalo (16-7) at #71 South Dakota State (21-7) 1:00pm ESPNU
  Given their current profile (RPI and RealWins in the 60s) South Dakota State has a fair (13.9%) chance of battling their way into bubble contention, but they lack opportunity, and beating Buffalo won't help all that much. The Bulls are a better skin than any team in the Summit other than Oral Roberts, whom the Jackrabbits beat once this year. Buffalo needs to win the MAC regardless of this game's outcome.
• #110 Drake (15-12) at #82 New Mexico State (19-8) 3:00pm ESPNU
  Now we're getting into the less meaningful games. Both these teams have about a chance in hell of turning their season around in short order to get an at-large bid. Drake's poor overall record and abysmal RPI (#127) means that the 0.1% we give them is really more like 0.01%; their saving grace is their 2 top 50 RPI wins, which mean that if the Bulldogs win today, beat Wichita State again, and make it to the final of the Missouri Valley tournament, they could finish 20-13 and maybe be in the "next four out." New Mexico State's 0.1% chance is probably accurate as is; their #74 RPI could be improved enough to put them on the bubble if they win out and lose in their conference tourney final.
• #131 Old Dominion (17-11) at #92 Missouri State (16-12) 5:00pm ESPNU
  Similar to the game above, Old Dominion is an almost certain no-hoper (#125 RPI) as an at-large, while Missouri State isn't in much of a better spot at #89. Considering the Bears were overlooked once with a #21 RPI, they'd better concentrate on a MVC tournament win.
• #126 UNC-Asheville (19-8) at #102 Ohio (20-6) 7:00pm ESPN3
  More of the same. Both teams are on the borderline of having an absolute zero chance of an at-large, and for all intents and purposes they are already there. This game won't change that.
• #129 (16) UT-Arlington (20-5) at #109 (16) Weber State (21-4) 8:00pm ESPN3
  Both these teams are sitting pretty in their conferences—Arlington is 12-0 in the Southland, and Weber State 13-1 in the Big Sky—but both look like 16-seeds if they end up winning their tournaments. In fact, we have Arlington as a play-in 16-seed. Maybe that's what this game decides: winner is a real 16-seed, loser is a play-in 16-seed.

The rest of the games—56 on Saturday, 2 on Sunday—are generally even less important, but for completeness' sake, here's a list, sorted by the home team's conference:

Visitor          Conf      Home             Conf
Towson           CAA       New Hampshire    Am East
Marist           MAAC      Maine            Am East
Niagara          MAAC      Vermont          Am East
Rider            MAAC      Albany           Am East
Cal-Poly         Big West  N. Colorado      Big Sky
UC-Davis         Big West  N. Arizona       Big Sky
Hawaii           WAC       Montana          Big Sky
San Jose State   WAC       Sacramento St.   Big Sky
Binghamton       Am East   Radford          Big South
William & Mary   CAA       VMI              Big South
Delaware State   MEAC      Gardner-Webb     Big South
Tennessee Tech   OVC       Coastal Carolina Big South
Wofford          Southern  Charleston S.    Big South
E. Washington    Big Sky   UC-Irvine        Big West
Montana State    Big Sky   Cal-Fullerton    Big West
Southern Utah    Summit    UC-Riverside     Big West
Fresno State     WAC       Cal-Northridge   Big West
Stony Brook      Am East   Northeastern     CAA
Hampton          MEAC      Delaware         CAA
Lamar            Southland George Mason     CAA
James Madison    CAA       Detroit          Horizon
Fairfield        MAAC      UW-Milwaukee     Horizon
E. Michigan      MAC       UW-Green Bay     Horizon
Indiana State    MVC       Butler           Horizon
Boston           Am East   Loyola-MD        MAAC (Sunday)
Hartford         Am East   St. Peter’s      MAAC
UMBC             Am East   Canisius         MAAC
Hofstra          CAA       Siena            MAAC
UNC-Wilmington   CAA       Manhattan        MAAC
S. Illinois      MVC       Ball State       MAC
Morehead State   OVC       Bowling Green    MAC
Tennessee St.    OVC       Miami            MAC (Sunday)
C. of Charleston Southern  Kent State       MAC
Liberty          Big South Morgan State     MEAC
Loyola-Chicago   Horizon   Bradley          MVC
Oakland          Summit    Illinois State   MVC
Western Illinois Summit    Evansville       MVC
Presbyterian     Big South Jacksonville St. OVC
Illinois-Chicago Horizon   Eastern Illinois OVC
Youngstown State Horizon   Austin Peay      OVC
N. Illinois      MAC       SIU-Edwardsville OVC
IPFW             Summit    Eastern Kentucky OVC
Winthrop         Big South Appalachian St.  Southern
Campbell         Big South NW State         Southland
High Point       Big South S. F. Austin     Southland
Georgia State    CAA       UT-San Antontio  Southland
Central Michigan MAC       Texas A&M-CC     Southland
Toledo           MAC       Sam Houston St.  Southland
SE Missouri      OVC       McNeese State    Southland
Tennessee-Martin OVC       SE Louisiana     Southland
IUPUI            Summit    Nicholls State   Southland
Wright State     Horizon   UMKC             Summit
Western Michigan MAC       North Dakota St. Summit
Texas State      Southland South Dakota     Summit
Portland State   Big West  Idaho            WAC
UC-Santa Barbara Big West  Utah State       WAC
Central Arkansas Southland Louisiana Tech   WAC
Idaho State      Big Sky   Pacific          WCC

Don't know about you, but for me 0-25 Binghamton vs. 5-23 Radford is one I wish was on the tube.

Dance Chance: 9 teams for the Big Ten? How about 5 for the Atlantic 10? And just one for the pac-12?

It's getting near the home stretch for teams making it into the NCAA tournament, with less than a month before Selection Sunday. Three conferences are of interest right now: The Big Ten, the Atlantic 10, and the Pac-12.

Will the Big Ten get a top seed?

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
1	Syracuse	Big East	26-1	13-1	1	1	7	100%	1
2	Kentucky	SEC	25-1	11-0	3	2	6	100%	1
3	Missouri	Big 12	24-2	11-2	9	4	8	99.9	1
4	Duke	ACC	21-4	8-2	2	3	6	99.9	1
5	Kansas	Big 12	21-5	11-2	5	6	7	99.9	2
6	North Carolina	ACC	22-4	9-2	6	7	7	99.9	2
7	Ohio St.	Big Ten	22-4	10-3	8	5	7	99.9	2
8	Michigan St.	Big Ten	19-5	9-3	4	9	7	99.9	2

As the top conference this year in a lot of people's minds, it would make sense for the Big Ten to have a #1 seed, but right now we don't see it that way. Syracuse and Kentucky are consensus picks, and currently we have Missouri as the top of the Big Twelve trio, and Duke as the last #1.

Ohio State and Michigan State are the candidates from the Big Ten, but right now there's nothing that elevates them above Missouri or Duke other than conference rank. The ACC isn't highly though of this year, but Duke is #2 in the RPI and #3 in RealWins, both much better than the Buckeyes. If either Ohio State or Michigan State wins the regular Big Ten season and the tournament, it will be hard to keep them out of a top seed, however.

Big Ten vs. Atlantic 10

Both the Big Ten and Atlantic 10 have several teams on the bubble.

The Big Ten has 5 teams that are solidly in the tournament: Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Currently we have Indiana a 3, Michigan a 4, and Wisconsin a 5; all have RPI and RealWins rankings well into the "lock" territory.

The Atlantic 10 has Temple, who could be a 4-seed, and St. Louis, who is looking very solid at 20-5 with a #22 RPI and #25 RealWins.

Purdue improved their standing a lot recently by beating Northwestern and Illinois, making their record (17-9, 7-6) less of a liability and moving their RPI (46) and RealWins (35) rankings onto the plus side. The Boilermakers have 4 top 50 wins and look like a pretty good bet, currently projected a 9-seed. So we take them off the bubble for now.

The bubble: Games through Feb. 15

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
43	Illinois	Big Ten	16-10	5-8	59	42	4	64.1	11	-2
44	Murray St.	Ohio Valley	22-1	13-1	48	51	2	61.3	11	+2
45	Middle Tennessee	Sun Belt	22-4	12-1	34	41	0	60.5	12
46	Oral Roberts	Summit	24-5	16-1	47	30	0	56.9	12
47	Miami FL	ACC	15-9	6-5	43	61	1	56.8	12	-1
48	Minnesota	Big Ten	17-9	5-8	65	43	2	56.0	12
49	Northwestern	Big Ten	15-10	5-8	44	67	2	55.1	13	-3
50	Kansas St.	Big 12	17-8	6-7	63	62	4	52.0	13	-1
51	Iona	Metro Atl	21-6	13-3	51	34	1	49.7	13
52	Xavier	Atlantic 10	16-9	7-4	54	55	3	48.5	13	+
53	Dayton	Atlantic 10	16-9	6-5	68	36	3	47.6	13
54	Mississippi	SEC	15-9	5-5	53	74	2	45.2		x
55	Saint Joseph's	Atlantic 10	17-10	7-5	50	39	1	44.2

Three more Big Ten teams are looking to join the other six. Illinois went the wrong direction in the last week, losing to Michigan and Purdue for their 4th straight loss. Now their record (16-10, 5-8) is a big negative, and their RPI (59) is underwater as well. The only thing saving them is their collection of wins; they are #42 in RealWins and have 4 top 50 victories. We have the Illini an 11 seed, down from a recent 9-seed, and in big danger if their slump continues.

Minnesota and Northwestern are hanging on by a thread, too. Both have the same dismal conference record (5-8) as Illinois, which is only non-fatal because of the Big Ten's strength this year. Minnesota's RPI is terrible (65) while their RealWins (43) is decent; Northwestern's RealWins (67) is awful but their RPI (44) isn't bad. Minnesota's overall of 17-9 is better than Northwestern's 15-10, which gives them the edge. Neither team has many Top 50 RPI wins (2 each). Currently both on the border of being play-in teams, the two face each other on Saturday and the loser might be eliminated. They might still both manage to make it in—giving the Big Ten nine tournament teams—or both fall off the bubble along with Illinois, reducing the Big Ten's take to a probable six.

Meanwhile the Atlantic 10 could easily have five teams in the Big Dance. Along with the Atlantic 10's two solid teams come three others with very real chances to make the tournament: Xavier, Dayton, and St. Joseph's. Two of the three are just inside our current projection as play-in teams, with one just outside.

Not much separates the three, which is why they're clumped together. Xavier and Dayton have a 1-game edge in overall record, all are at or near double-digits in losses. Each has 4 or 5 conference losses and 6 or 7 conference wins, figures that are borderline for a mid-major conference. Xavier and St. Joe's have bubble-level RPIs at #54 and #50, while Dayton at #68 is underwater. But the RPI doesn't care who you beat, while RealWins does, and in that Dayton is a strong #36. St. Joe's is also strong at #39, while Xavier is just #55. But St. Joe's falls short in Top 50 RPI wins, with just one. Put it all together and we have the three teams all within four spots, all just below the play-in bubble.

Xavier and Dayton play on Saturday at Xavier, which probably makes another elimination game like Northwestern-Minnesota.

Is the Pac-12 a 1-bid conference?

As things stand, the Pac-12 looks like a 1-bid conference. California is about an 11-seed as an at-large, and if they win the tournament, no other team looks strong enough to make the field in terms of what the NCAA looks for.

#	Team	Conference	Record vs. Div I	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
41	California	Pac-12	20-6	10-3	37	50	0	67.1	11
56	Arizona	Pac-12	18-8	9-4	67	57	1	43.2
65	Washington	Pac-12	17-8	10-3	56	82	0	27.0
69	Oregon	Pac-12	18-7	9-4	66	78	0	18.3
74	Colorado	Pac-12	15-8	9-4	73	95	0	4.0
97	Stanford	Pac-12	17-8	7-6	103	106	1	0.1
116	UCLA	Pac-12	14-11	8-6	123	131	0	0.1

Above is every team in the Pac-12 with a winning conference record. The Pac-12 is currently an abysmal 10th in conference RPI, which makes it safe to say that a team with a losing Pac-12 record won't make the Big Dance.

From the top: California's 20-6 overall and 10-3 conference tally would make them a top 4 seed in a typical year for a major conference. Their 37 RPI brings them down to earth, and their #50 RealWins ranking shows how few good teams they've defeated. They have zero top 50 wins, which looks very bad. That's why they're projected a 10 or 11, and why they're not close to a lock if they don't win the conference. If they finish well they'll get a big regardless of conference tournament performance, though.

Arizona is perhaps next in line, and they have a decent chance at an at-large bid. Again, the record (18-8, 9-4) is strong for a major conference, but the #67 RPI is nearing prohibitive levels and the #57 RealWins doesn't help. They have just one Top 50 RPI win.

Washington is tied for the conference lead right now at 10-3, but their #56 RPI is weak and their #82 RealWins ranking is even weaker; it shows that they really haven't beaten anyone, and their 0-4 record against Top 50 RPI wins drives this home.

Oregon's 18-7 and 9-4 records, again, would be great any other year for a major conference. But their #66 RPI and #78 RealWins, and their 0-4 Top 50 RPI tally diminishes their chances greatly. Colorado is also 9-4 in conference but has even weaker numbers beyond that than the Ducks in every department. Stanford has a bubble-worthy record at 17-8 and 7-6, but prohibitive values in RPI (103) and RealWins (106). They do have a Top 50 RPI win, a rarity in this league.

UCLA's 8-6 conference record would be a source of hope most years; despite a 14-11 overall record, a major conference team that finishes on a roll can usually nab a bid. But the Bruins' other numbers are terrible: double digit RPI and RealWins, and an 0-6 record against the top 50.

On Saturday, February 18th, Arizona faces Washington in Seattle, with the winner getting a big boost in their at-large hopes. But at this point every team in the conference—California included—has to be thinking about the Pac-12 tournament as their only salvation. No one can count on an at-large bid from the Pac-12.

There is hope, however: the second Dance Card study, by B. Jay Coleman, J. Michael DuMond and Allen K. Lynch, showed a huge bias toward the Pac-10, above and beyond the general bias toward major conferences. In fact, by some measures, a Pac-10 team had a 10,000 times greater chance of being selected than a comparable minor-conference team.

We have major-conference bias built-in to the Dance Chance and still the Pac-12 teams are in trouble. But if there is additional bias toward the Pac-12, then maybe a second or third team can squeeze in. But if they go by the numbers, the Pac-12 could be a 1-bid league in 2012.

Zeitgeist Top 25 for Week of Feb 12: MSU, Kansas back in top 5

Big moves in the Big Ten and Big Twelve highlight this week's Zeitgeist Top 25.

Michigan State (20-5) went 3-0 over the past week, beating Michigan 64-54 and Penn State 77-57, then capping it with a huge 58-48 road win at ex-#4 Ohio State (21-4). The latter, mostly, is what pushed the Spartans up to #4 in our Zeitgeist Rankings while the Buckeyes slipped to #7.

Right on MSU's heels at #5 is Kansas (20-5), who jumped from #15 after beating Baylor 68-54 on the road and adding a win over Oklahoma State. 23-2 Missouri, who held at #3, also beat the Bears 72-57 this week, sending Baylor (21-4) tumbling from #5 to #25.

The top two spots were unchanged: Syracuse (25-1) held off Georgetown in overtime, 64-61, then beat UConn convincingly to stay #1. #2 Kentucky (25-1) drubbed ex-#6 Florida 78-58, then beat Vanderbilt on the road on Saturday.

Notre Dame (17-8) climbed another notch with their 5th and 6th wins in a row, defeating West Virginia 55-51 and DePaul 84-76.

Three mid-majors are among the hottest teams in the country and crack this week's top ten: Wichita State (22-4) took pole position in the Missouri Valley Conference by thrashing Northern Iowa 82-57 and ex-#12 Creighton 89-68. The Shockers jump over both 22-4 UNLV—65-63 winners over San Diego State—and 19-5 Temple, who beat George Washington and Xavier in winning 8 straight.

 LW  Rnk Team                    Record  Rating Last game (each . = 1 day ago)
  1   1. Syracuse                 25-1   73.73  .W 85-67 #80 Connecticut      
  2   2. Kentucky                 25-1   69.26  .W 69-63 @#53 Vanderbilt      
  3   3. Missouri                 23-2   61.55  .W 72-57 #5 Baylor            
 13   4. Michigan St.             20-5   49.89  .W 58-48 @#4 Ohio St.         
 15   5. Kansas                   20-5   46.71  .W 81-66 #115 Oklahoma St.    
  7   6. Notre Dame               17-8   45.01  .W 84-76 #199 DePaul          
  4   7. Ohio St.                 21-4   42.22  .L 58-48 #13 Michigan St.     
 22   8. Wichita St.              22-4   39.98  .W 89-68 @#12 Creighton       
 19   9. Nevada Las Vegas         22-4   39.85  .W 65-63 #8 San Diego St.     
 16  10. Temple                   19-5   37.54  .W 85-72 #99 Xavier           
 27  11. Duke                     21-4   36.06  .W 73-55 #152 Maryland        
 14  12. Florida St.              17-7   34.84  .W 64-59 #60 Miami FL         
  9  13. Southern Mississippi     21-4   34.83  .W 78-74 #79 Central Florida  
 24  14. New Mexico               20-4   33.45  .W 48-38 #38 Wyoming          
 25  15. Wisconsin                19-6   33.38  ...W 68-61OT @#40 Minnesota   
 20  16. Oral Roberts             23-5   33.32  .W 61-51 #157 Western Illinois
  8  17. San Diego St.            20-4   32.13  .L 65-63 @#19 Nevada Las Vegas
 41  18. Gonzaga                  20-4   31.96  .W 78-59 #104 Loyola Marymount
 10  19. Murray St.               24-1   31.71  .W 82-63 #238 Austin Peay     
 29  20. Marquette                21-5   31.54  .W 95-78 #67 Cincinnati       
 17  21. North Carolina           21-4   31.52  .W 70-52 #33 Virginia         
 31  22. St. Louis                20-5   31.20  .W 59-51 @#81 La Salle        
 11  23. St. Mary's               23-3   30.97  .W 82-67 #318 Santa Clara     
 35  24. Louisville               20-5   29.92  .W 77-74 @#58 West Virginia   
  5  25. Baylor                   21-4   29.59  .L 72-57 @#3 Missouri
Dropped out:
#6 Florida; #12 Creighton; #18 Georgetown; #21 Harvard; #23 Iowa State

ACC Still Up For Grabs

Three teams are now tied for the lead in the ACC, all 8-2 in conference play. #11 Duke (21-4) rockets from #27 to #11 after beating North Carolina on a buzzer-beater and demolishing Maryland. Right behind them at #12, up two spots, is Florida State (17-7), who continues their impressive upward climb despite a mid-week 64-60 loss to Boston College. The Seminoles beat Miami on Saturday. North Carolina (21-4) recovered from the Duke loss with a 70-52 win over Virginia but slips four spots to #21.

New Mexico (20-4) is the 2nd-highest-rated Mountain West team in the rankings, behind UNLV. The Lobos jump 10 spots to #14 after beating Wyoming, while San Diego State (20-4) loss drops to #17 after their loss to the Rebels.

Just behind the Lobos are the Badgers of Wisconsin (19-6), overtime winners over Minnesota on Thursday; they move up 10 spots from #25. Just ahead of New Mexico at #13 is Southern Miss (21-4), who falls 4 spots after losing to UAB 71-61.

There are two bona-fide "minor" conference teams in the top 25: Oral Roberts (23-5) at #16 and Murray State (24-1) at #19. The Golden Eagles move up four spots with wins over IUPUI (76-74 in overtime) and Western Illinois. The Racers lost their first game of the season, 72-68 at home to Tennessee State, before rebounding with an 82-63 win over Austin Peay. They fall 9 spots.

Gonzaga (20-4) leaps back into the fray at #18 with a huge 73-59 win over St. Mary's (23-3), who falls 12 spots to #23. The Gaels still lead the conference at 12-1, with the 'Zags at 10-2. Also new this week are two Big East teams, Marquette (21-5) and Louisville (20-5), both of whom won twice in conference play. They stand at #2 and tied for #5 in the Big East respectively.

The last new team in the rankings is St. Louis (20-5) from the Atlantic 10. They won twice on the road, beating St. Joseph's and La Salle and climb 9 spots to #22.

Of the five teams falling out, Florida fell the hardest, all the way from #6 to #29. The 19-6 Gators lost badly to Kentucky, then fell to Tennessee at home. Creighton (21-5) lost to Evansville 65-57 on Tuesday before being crushed by Wichita State, their third straight loss; the Blue Jays are now #36, falling from #12.

Georgetown (19-5) fell from #18 to #27, recovering from the Syracuse loss with a 71-67 win over St. John's. Harvard's first run at the Top 25 this year came to an end, for now; the 21-3 Crimson had their first Ivy League defeat, falling to Princeton 70-62 on Saturday after beating Penn 56-50 the day before. They're now at #31, six spots ahead of former #23 Iowa State (18-7), who fell to Oklahoma State, 69-67, on Tuesday.