SportsRatings: College Basketball

Dallas Mavericks are better with Nowitzki than without

An extensive analysis has shown that the Dallas Mavericks are better when Dirk Nowitzki is playing, rather than when they have to play in his absence.

How did we come to this controversial conclusion? Simple: We removed from our analysis those games he missed earlier in the season and compared the Mavs' performance with and without their star power forward.

Nowitzki missed 9 games, and in 2 others (the game during which he was hurt, and his return game) he played less than 15 minutes, so we excluded 11 games total from the Mavericks' season. The results are sure to cause a stir:

Pre-playoff rankings - all games
num  Team                    record    rating
1.  Miami                     58-24     6.67
2.  Chicago                   62-20     6.35
3.  LA Lakers                 58-24     6.00
4.  San Antonio               61-21     5.78
5.  Orlando                   52-30     4.90
6.  Denver                    50-32     4.82
7.  Boston                    56-26     4.68
8.  Dallas (all games)        57-25     4.34

Ratings from before the playoff season had Dallas somewhat of a longshot to make the finals, ranked at #8 behind Los Angeles, San Antonio, and Denver in the West.

Pre-playoffs, removing games with Nowitski injured
num  Team                    record    rating
1.  Miami                     58-24     6.70
2.  Chicago                   62-20     6.37
3.  LA Lakers                 58-24     6.05
4.  Dallas w/Nowitzki         54-17     5.71

But when we count only the games with Nowitzki present, the team should have been taken more seriously. By this measure they were certainly a threat to Los Angeles, the team that everyone expected to make the finals, and rank above San Antonio, the #1 seed and the winner in Dallas' division.

So how do things shape up now? Including the playoffs, the Dallas team with Nowitzki ranks #2:

Full-season, including Playoffs, split Nowitski
num  Team                    record    rating
1.  Miami                     70-27     6.61
2.  Dallas w/Nowitzki         66-20     6.20
3.  Chicago                   71-27     6.04
4.  LA Lakers                 62-30     5.39
5.  San Antonio               63-25     4.92
6.  Boston                    60-30     4.54
7.  Denver                    51-36     4.38
8.  Orlando                   54-34     4.34
9.  Oklahoma City             63-36     3.51
10. Memphis                   53-42     2.63
11. Houston                   43-39     2.47
12. Portland                  50-38     1.60
13. Philadephia               42-45     0.89
14. New Orleans               48-40     0.86
15. New York                  42-43     0.12
16. Phoenix                   40-42    -0.66
17. Atlanta                   50-44    -1.01
18. Milwaukee                 35-47    -1.28
19. Indiana                   38-49    -1.65
20. Utah                      39-43    -1.69
21. Golden St                 36-46    -2.15
22. LA Clippers               32-50    -2.73
23. Detroit                   30-52    -3.97
24. Charlotte                 34-48    -4.32
25. Sacramento                24-58    -4.61
26. Dallas -Nowitzki           3-8     -4.73
27. Minnesota                 17-65    -5.97
28. New Jersey                24-58    -6.45
29. Toronto                   22-60    -6.52
30. Washington                23-59    -7.41
31. Cleveland                 19-63    -9.31

So by these rankings, the top two teams are indeed playing in the finals. Dallas still rates slightly below Miami, who holds the home court advantage of course.

Note also that when Dallas plays without Nowitzki, they are in trouble, rating as a division cellar-dwellar.

Some would argue that due to the small sample size, these results aren't statistically significant, but we're going to go out on a limb and say that there is a very good chance that the Dallas Mavericks are a better team when Dirk Nowitzki is in the lineup.

Miami and Dallas reach NBA Finals: SportsRatings curse favors Mavs

Denver, Los Angeles, Chicago...all three have been our NBA title favorites over the last several weeks, and all have lost their next series in 4 or 5 games. Now that our numbers are taking the favorite Heat, Dallas can have great hope that an upset is in the works.

Again, our method: splitting home and road performance, and only using results since the All-Star break. Our most recent power ratings look like this:

Home performance

num  Team                    record    rating
1.  Denver                    12-2     14.49
2.  Dallas                    15-5     12.33
3.  Memphis                   16-4     11.75
4.  Miami                     18-6     10.26

Road performance

num  Team                    record    rating
1.  Oklahoma                  11-11     4.79
2.  Chicago                   16-7      4.70
3.  LA Lakers                 10-6      2.99
4.  Dallas                    14-7      2.46
5.  Houston                    7-5      2.43
6.  Denver                     7-9      1.45
7.  Miami                     11-6      0.22

Given that Dallas ranks better both as a home team and a road team, it looks like that this method should favor the Mavs. However, the Heat has the home court advantage, which clouds the issue.

Using our game-comparison method we determine that the Heat should win 70.2% of the games in Miami, and the Mavericks should take 72.4% of the Dallas games. With both teams such big home favorites, the home court series advantage becomes paramount and the Heat are a 55% favorite to win the series.

Series probabilities:

Win in    Miami  (cume)  Dallas (cume)
4 games:   3.8%  ( 3.8)   4.7%  ( 4.7)
5 games:   6.3%  (10.2)  18.4%  (23.1)
6 games:  20.0%  (30.2)  11.4%  (34.5)
7 games:  24.9%  (54.9)   8.6%  (43.1)

After 4 games, where both teams have played 2 home games each, Dallas is more likely to have won by a sweep (4.7% to 3.8%) as they are the bigger home favorite. After the 5th game—in Dallas due to the 2-3-2 finals format—the Mavericks open up a huge advantage: an 18% chance of wrapping up the series at that point with a total 23% chance to have won at or before game 5.

Then the series switches back to Miami for the final 2 games if necessary, and the odds start to favor the Heat. Miami has a 20% chance of finishing it in 6 games and a 25% chance of winning it in 7. Up through game 6, however, Dallas is more likely to win. Only if it goes 7 games is Miami expected to win.

The combined odds at game six are around 65%, meaning there's a 2/3 chance that the series will be over then, with Dallas the slight favorite. But neither team reaches a 50% probability of winning the series until game 7 and by then the Heat are clear favorites.

So our method picks Miami to bring home the championship. That, of course, means that Dallas will probably win in 5, similar to how Oklahoma City beat Denver, Dallas beat Los Angeles, and Miami beat Chicago, sending our previous picks to the dustbin.

Based on that I'm going against the method and taking Dallas in 6. Does that put the curse back on the Mavs? I don't know. We'll see which is cursed, the method's picks, or our stated picks.

Nowitski pulls a Bill Walton with near-perfect game: 12-15 FG, 24-24 FT

Dirk Nowitski reminded us of what Bill Walton's NBA career might have looked like.

Nowitski guided the Dallas Mavericks to a game one win over Oklahoma City, 121-112, hitting 12 of 15 from the floor and making a crazy 24 of 24 free throw attempts. He added 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 blocks.

The performance was reminiscent of Bill Walton's "perfect game" from the 1973 NCAA championship game. UCLA beat Memphis State 87-66 as Walton scored 44 points on 21 of 22 shooting with 13 rebounds.

While Nowitski scored half of his points on free throws and the players' styles are very different, both performances came in crucial games from shaggy-haired big men, so seeing Dirk do his thing has to make us wonder what could have been re:Walton.

Walton graduated from UCLA and was immediately slowed by injuries. But in 1977 his Portland Trailblazers came back from a 2-0 deficit and beat the Philadelphia 76ers to win the NBA championship. Walton was the series MVP.

The next season was looking like Walton's best before he broke his foot, an injury that didn't prevent him from being named league MVP, but one that would derail his career. His injury was mismanaged with incorrect diagnoses and painkillers, which led to several further problems. It became a textbook case of how not to manage an injury, harming both the player and the team he played for. Walton was traded to San Diego and didn't play a full season with them, sitting out several years.

Walton made a comeback in the 80s, joining the Boston Celtics and helping them win another championship, but his role was a backup role, and he was a shadow of his former self as a player, limited mainly to rebounding. Still, he played a full season and won the NBA's Sixth Man award.

If not for his injuries, Walton could have been putting up Nowitski-like numbers for a solid decade from the mid 70s through the mid-80s; instead he basically had two great seasons and a number of years where he played well when he was healthy. Instead of a career resembling Nowitski's, his closest modern-day match could be Yao Ming, who is also having major problems with his feet and as a result has completed only a few full seasons.

Video: Taj Gibson Dunks the Heat: Bulls win Game one 103-82

Chicago started off well at home, breaking a nearly-tied first half into a 103-82 rout, but here's what is important: Taj Gibson's not one, but two spectacular dunks.

The first: OVER Dwayne Wade

The second: INSANE put-back

So which one was more amazing?

• The first one has the advantage of being OVER DWAYNE WADE, who was called for a foul (he was inside the no-foul circle so there was no judgement call).
• Dunk #1 also happened at a point where the game was in contention. The Bulls were struggling to keep up with the Heat at the time, and Gibson's dunk helped fire them up.
• The 2nd dunk came when the game was already over. But, it has a slight edge in sheer awesomeness.

So it's a pretty even score between the two.

Game two takes place on Wednesday at 8:30pm Eastern time, also in Chicago.

NBA Playoffs: Oklahoma City finishes Memphis; next curse victim is Chicago

Once again, the playoff gods have smiled on the NBA and there is no overlap between the end of Round 2 and the start of Round 3, which is a couple of hours away when Chicago-Miami commences. Just minutes ago, Oklahoma City finished off Memphis to claim a spot in the Western finals against Dallas.

That means we can curse another team. Before Round One, our longshot pick to win it all was Denver; when the Nuggets fell in 5 games, we switched to Los Angeles. Four games later the Lakers were in tatters. Using the same method (splitting home/away games, counting only games since the All-Star break), Chicago is our new winner. Better pray for the Bulls.

Denver nearly won their first game against OKC, but after losing the second the team was passing blame around and saying that they had "given up." Three games later the series was over. Los Angeles suffered an even worse fate, losing two at home and getting swept in a particularly ugly series that ended with the Lakers committing flagrant fouls and besmirching their organization's hallowed history.

So what can we expect from the Bulls as our new favorites?

Best home teams, Feb. 22-May 15, 2011

num  Team                    record    rating
1.  Denver                    12-2     14.57
2.  Dallas                    13-4     12.84
3.  Memphis                   16-4     11.84
4.  Miami                     16-6     10.04
5.  Oklahoma City             17-4      7.80
6.  Portland                  13-5      7.78
7.  LA Lakers                 14-5      7.57
8.  Chicago                   16-2      7.31

Best road teams, Feb. 22-May 15, 2011

 1. Chicago                   16-5      5.21
 2. Oklahoma City             10-9      4.57
 3. LA Lakers                 10-6      3.15
 4. Houston                    7-5      2.48
 5. Dallas                    12-7      2.01
 6. Denver                     7-9      1.66
 7. Miami                      9-5      0.21

Western Conference Final

(3) Dallas (#2 home, #5 road) vs. (4) Oklahoma City (#5 home, #2 road): An interesting finals between the 3 and 4 seed. Dallas of course knocked off 2-seed Los Angeles, while Oklahoma City knocked off the 8-seed that knocked off the #1 seeded Spurs.

Despite being the "other" series—obviously, Chicago-Miami is the one more people will watch—there are a lot of big names in this one. Obviously it's Dirk Nowitski against Kevin Durant, but it's also Jason Kidd's (perhaps last) chance to get a ring, and Russell Westbrook isn't terribly far behind Durant stats-wise for the Thunder. LeBron James said it might be the more entertaining series for NBA fans to watch.

The Mavs' strength has been at home lately while the Thunder have excelled on the road. Unfortunately that means that Dallas' strength cancels out Oklahoma City's strength. But Dallas is relatively weak on the road, making OKC's home play less of a liability (not that being in the top five is a weakness).

Both teams have about a 2/3 chance to win at home, making the overall series home court the deciding factor. We give Dallas a 56% chance in the seriers and take them in seven.

Eastern Conference Final

(1) Chicago (#8 home, #1 road) vs. (2) Miami (#4 home, #7 road): This one turned out like it was supposed to: the #1 vs. the #2 seed, with the upstart Bulls facing the genetically-engineered superteam Heat. With the West's favorites gone, many will be thinking of this as the NBA championship proper.

When LeBron James left Cleveland, this is where he wanted to be: on a team that could beat Boston in the playoffs. With Dwayne Wade, who has matched LeBron's scoring during the playoffs, and Chris Bosh, the Heat would have been considered a failure if they hadn't gotten past the Celtics. But they did, and in strong fashion in five games.

Chicago has been more of a surprise, to put it mildly. Led by Derrick Rose the Bulls won four more games than Miami during the regular season, which already had some putting the Heat in the "disappointment" column. Rose won the MVP award but has been hampered by the occasional injury during the playoffs. It's safe to say if he goes, Chicago goes.

This series looks much like the Western final, as both teams have a similar home court advantage to each other. But there is more likelihood of the road team winning; each has about a 62% chance on their home court. Again, though, the sheer number of home games is the deciding factor, with Chicago an overall 55% chance to win the series, probably in seven.

The Finals: Chicago vs. Dallas

This hypothetical series again looks to be determined by home court. Quite boring, yes, but that's how it's going to be with fairly evenly-matched teams in a best-of-seven.

But this one is interesting because Dallas has a much bigger home court edge than Chicago, 66% to 62.5%. And with the 2-3-2 finals format, if the Mavs can steal one in Chicago, the Bulls better worry. Dallas is more than twice as likely to win it in 5 games than Chicago, and has the edge through 6 games, too. But with the last two games in Chicago, the Bulls have an overall 51% chance to win.

1 Chicago -----4
               |--Chicago-4
8 Indiana -----1          |
                          |--Chicago-0
4 Orlando -----2          |          |
               |--Atlanta-2          |
5 Atlanta -----4                     |
                                     |--Chicago--55%
3 Boston  -----4                     |           |
               |--Boston--1          |           |
6 New York ----0          |          |           |
                          |--Miami---0           |
2 Miami   -----4          |                      |
               |--Miami---4                      |
7 Philly  -----1                                 |
                                                 |-----Chicago 51%
1 San Antonio -2                                 |
               |--Memphis-3                      |
8 Memphis -----4          |                      |
                          |--OK City-0           |
4 OK City -----4          |          |           |
               |--OK City-4          |           |
5 Denver  -----1                     |           |
                                     |--Dallas---56%
3 Dallas  -----4                     |
               |--Dallas--4          |
6 Portland ----2          |          |
                          |--Dallas--0
2 LA Lakers ---4          |
               |--Lakers--0
7 New Orleans -2     

Given the track record of this system this season, the Heat are in great shape to pummel the Bulls and advance to the finals. But if that happens, they'd probably be the new favorites, so all in all, things are looking pretty great for Dallas.

NBA Playoffs Round 2 Game 2 Results: Lakers Threepeat all but dead

Well, that didn't take long. We had switched our favorite from super-longshot Denver, who fell in five games in Round One, to conventional wisdom co-favorite Los Angeles, who seemed very likely to last until at least the finals. Two games into the round two series against Dallas and the Lakers are all but toast.

The Mavericks beat the Lakers in L.A. again, 93-81, to take a 2-0 lead in the series. With the action moving to Dallas for the next two contests, the story becomes: sweep or no sweep?

The Lakers are obviously in a terrible hole, needing three road wins to pull things out. We didn't have them a prohibitive favorite to win the series—just 62%—but after falling into an 0-and-2 rut, we figure their odds at this point to be just 13%. Put it perspective, Dallas has a 41% chance of sweeping (their odds of winning both of the next two home games).

Worse, Dallas has a 59% to 0% edge in being the winner after 5 games.

L.A. can recover by returning the favor and stealing two road wins from the Mavs. The odds of this are about 12%, roughly equal to their 13% chance of winning the series, since doing anything less than that still leaves them in a huge hole.

Oklahoma City Wins, but Memphis Still Favored

Though the Thunder won 111-102 on Tuesday, the series is tied 1-1 meaning Memphis carries the home court edge and is the favorite. The Grizzlies' odds dropped from 68% to 56%, but originally Oklahoma City was a 63% favorite. The Thunder need a road win in the next two games; their odds of getting one (or two) are around 43%, which isn't all that bad. This series is the most even of the four.

Chicago evens series, still in control

The Bulls recovered from their game one loss to beat Atlanta 86-73, tying the series 1-1. Though Atlanta's first-round win dropped the Bulls from a huge 88% favorite, they were still had about a 2 in 3 chance to win the series and after taking game 2, that increases to 78%. The Bulls should win it at home in game six, and still are the favorites in the Atlanta games so a 5-game series is possible.

Do the Heat have chance to sweep?

With a 2-0 lead, could the Heat sweep the Celtics? Probably not, since the Celtics are fairly solid favorites in the Boston games. But Miami's two home wins have increased their sweep odds from 9% to 15%, and their overall odds in the series have gone from 72% to 89%. It's about 50/50 whether they win the series by game 5 at this point. Basically if the Heat go 1-1 in Boston (a 49% chance), they should win in 5, but if Boston holds home court then the series likely goes to 7—which would leave the door open for the Celtics.

NBA Playoffs 2011: More Surprises In Round Two - Lakers, Bulls, Thunder all lose game one

The first round had three game one upsets, and now so did round two—but that's three upsets out of four games instead of 3 of 8.

Monday night, Dallas came back from 16 points down to beat Los Angeles 96-94, as Kobe Bryant's last-second three bounced away. #1 seed Chicago lost 103-95 to Atlanta in the earlier game. And on Sunday, 8-seed Memphis thrashed Oklahoma City 114-101.

Only Miami took care of business at home, beating Boston 99-90. Their 72% chance of winning that series climbed to 81% with the win.

So the question must be asked again this round: of the three favorites who lost, who is in trouble?

• Chicago? No.

Chicago appears to still be in control. Beginning the series as an 88% favorite, the Bulls are still a 67% winner by our method, despite being in an 0-1 hole. They're 60% favorites to win on the road, so on a game-by-game basis they still win in 5. By the odds, it now takes them 7 games.

So we still have the Bulls beating Atlanta in the series 2 out of 3 times. Of course, that's exactly what we said after the Hawks beat Orlando in game 1 of round one...

• Oklahoma City? Yes.

The Thunder played very well at home in beating Denver three games to none, then they turned around and lost game one to 8-seed Memphis. Now the underdog goes from a 37% chance of success to a 68% favorite. The Grizzlies have been an even stronger home team lately that the Thunder, so they'll likely win it in six.

Considering the ease with which Memphis won—they took every quarter except the fourth, which was a tie—the Thunder have their work cut out for them in the home games, let alone on the road. It's all over if they lose Tuesday night.

• Los Angeles? Yes.

The Lakers were just a 62% favorite going in, so dropping a home game turns the series around to Dallas' advantage. Now the Mavericks are 64% favorites. Because of the format, it's most likely that they seal the deal in game 6, with both teams winning at home.

Naturally, the Lakers can turn it back around with a road win. So game two doesn't tell us a whole lot—unless the Mavericks win that one, too.

And of course this means that our "pick" to win it all—for the 2nd time in as many rounds—is in danger. Who will we curse in the 3rd round? Well, here's an updated bracket just to answer that question.

Bracket update (unofficial) round two post-game 1

1 Chicago -----4
               |--Chicago-0
8 Indiana -----1          |
                          |--Chicago-67%
4 Orlando -----2          |          |
               |--Atlanta-1          |
5 Atlanta -----4                     |
                                     |--Miami----52%
3 Boston  -----4                     |           |
               |--Boston--0          |           |
6 New York ----0          |          |           |
                          |--Miami---81%         |
2 Miami   -----4          |                      |
               |--Miami---1                      |
7 Philly  -----1                                 |
                                                 |-----Miami 57%
1 San Antonio -2                                 |
               |--Memphis-1                      |
8 Memphis -----4          |                      |
                          |--Memphis-68%         |
4 OK City -----4          |          |           |
               |--OK City-0          |           |
5 Denver  -----1                     |           |
                                     |--Dallas---57%
3 Dallas  -----4                     |
               |--Dallas--1          |
6 Portland ----2          |          |
                          |--Dallas--64%
2 LA Lakers ---4          |
               |--Lakers--0
7 New Orleans -2      

So not only do two of our round 2 picks change, but the Heat are now ahead of the Bulls for the East title, and may be our new pick to win it all if round 2 plays out like we now suspect. Which is bad news for Miami, given our finals faves' track record so far.

The Heat would have home court advantage for a series against either Dallas or Memphis—by a single game, in Dallas' case. And they beat either the Grizzlies or Mavericks head-to-head, so as long as the Lakers fall by the wayside somewhere the Heat look good. Officially, though, we stand by the Lakers until they lose 4.

NBA Playoffs Second Round Predictions: Switching to a Laker Threepeat

The NBA Playoffs were kind this year so there is no overlap between the first and second round, making it a convenient time to update our picks.

This is good because our longshot pick Denver lost in the first round. With the eight teams left we will continue to use the same method—which we chose to step away from the conventional choices. With 8 teams left, the chances for a more conventional pick are much higher, particularly considering that top seed San Antonio wasn't anywhere near the top of our list anyway. Nor was the other upset victim, Orlando.

Once again we'll look at our power rating—with teams split for home and away performance—starting after the all-star break. Whether this gives a more accurate view of teams is debateable, but I use it because of big trades that sometimes transform teams into a completely different squad.

Here are the top 10 home teams in our power rating since February 22:

num  Team                    record    rating
1.  Denver                    12-2     14.72
2.  Memphis                   14-3     11.91
3.  Dallas                    11-4     11.08
4.  Miami                     13-6     10.07
5.  LA Lakers                 14-3      8.69
6.  Chicago                   14-1      8.39
7.  Portland                  13-5      7.84
8.  Oklahoma City             14-3      7.59
9.  San Antonio               13-4      7.02
10. Boston                    10-3      6.64
...
18. Atlanta                   10-8      0.81

Denver still ranks as the top home team since the break; they lost a close game to Oklahoma City but won the 2nd; they went 0-3 on the road, however. Only Atlanta falls outside the top ten, and they're far outside.

And the top 10 road teams since the all-star break:

 1. LA Lakers                 10-4      5.47
 2. Chicago                   14-4      5.44
 3. Oklahoma City              9-7      4.90
 4. Houston                    7-5      2.79
 5. Denver                     7-9      1.77
 6. Miami                      8-4      1.29
 7. Dallas                    10-7      1.23
 8. San Antonio                4-11    -0.00
 9. Orlando                    8-8     -0.18
10. New York                   6-10    -0.77
11. Boston                     9-9     -1.36
...
15. Memphis                    5-9     -2.75
20. Atlanta                    4-11    -6.56

Boston is #11, with Memphis and again Atlanta far outside the range of other teams.

Now for the second round previews (and beyond):

East

(1) Chicago (home #6, road #2) vs. (5) Atlanta (home #18, road #20): Chicago slipped a notch in both home and away rankings due to their lackluster series with the Pacers, even as they won in 5 games. Atlanta's home play score jumped a bit, but overall they are the lowest-ranked team both home and away. That was true before the Orlando series, too, and they won in 6 games.

The Bulls, however, are heavy favorites both home and away, so unless the Hawks come up with a great Bulls-specific game plan their ride ends here.

Chicago in 5; 88% chance to win series, 22% chance of sweep.

(2) Miami (home #4, road #6) vs. (3) Boston (home #10, road #11): This is the 2nd round series everyone seems to be following. Miami could be getting serious now that the playoffs are here, and indeed they moved up a notch in both home and road play while beating Philly in 5. The Celtics swept New York—the only sweep of the first round—but the games were very close so Boston's ratings were mixed.

The Heat have the crucial home court advantage for the series, and they have a stronger home court edge in their 4 home games than Boston will have in their 3. There's a 50/50 chance Miami wins it in 6, but since that game's at Boston that should push it into game 7.

Miami in 7; 74% chance to win series, 9% chance of sweep.

Rest of the way in the East: Chicago meets Miami, with the Bulls holding the higher seed. Most pick Miami to come out of it on top as they become serious, and the Bulls' surprise season comes to an end. In other words, talent prevails.

But using our system, Chicago's home court advantage makes them the more likely winner. Both teams have about a 60% chance of winning at home, but the 4 to 3 format gives the Bulls a slim edge.

West

(4) Oklahoma City (home #8, road #3) vs. (8) Memphis (home #2, road #15): The Thunder moved up three spots in home court ranking by blanking Denver 3-0 en route to winning in 5. Memphis stunned San Antonio, but we had the Spurs just a 52% favorite even accounting for the home-away format that boosted them so much. The Grizzlies' home and road rankings stayed exactly the same.

Given Memphis' great home ranking and Oklahoma City's similar road rank, those games should be competitive. Where the Thunder should dominate is at home, particularly given how Durant and co. In short though, both teams are pretty heavy home favorites, enough to make the series a 7-gamer.

Oklahoma City in 7; 63% chance to win series, 5% chance of sweep

(2) Los Angeles Lakers (home #5, road #1) vs. (3) Dallas (home #3, road #7). Los Angeles needed 6 games to off the Hornets, mostly due to Chris Paul having career-nights in two games. The Lakers rank as the top road team now.

Dallas on the other hand won a bit sooner than expected. Not so convincingly as to make it look like they'll upset the defending champs, but enough to suggest a possible 7-game series.

Lakers in 7; 62% chance to win series, 6% chance of sweep

Rest of the way in the West: Instead of LA-Denver, it's LA-Oklahoma City in the West finals. And the Thunder aren't looking like they're on enough of a roll to upset the Lakers given the home/road imbalance. All the games should be competitive, as both teams' relative strength recently has been road play. Lakers use the extra home game to win in 7.

NBA Finals: Chicago vs. Los Angeles

If it comes down to this, the Bulls will have the home court advantage in the 2-3-2 format. But the Lakers have a better home edge in the series, 60% to 56%. Note that Los Angeles ranks one position ahead in both home and road play. It's just enough to overcome the 4- to 3-game home court edge.

Brackets:

1 Chicago -----4
               |--Chicago-
8 Indiana -----1          |
                          |--Chicago-88%
4 Orlando -----2          |          |
               |--Atlanta-           |
5 Atlanta -----4                     |
                                     |--Chicago--53%
3 Boston  -----4                     |           |
               |--Boston--           |           |
6 New York ----0          |          |           |
                          |--Miami---72%         |
2 Miami   -----4          |                      |
               |--Miami---                       |
7 Philly  -----1                                 |
                                                 |-----Lakers 51%
1 San Antonio -2                                 |
               |--Memphis-                       |
8 Memphis -----4          |                      |
                          |--OK City-63%         |
4 OK City -----4          |          |           |
               |--OK City-           |           |
5 Denver  -----1                     |           |
                                     |--Lakers---53%
3 Dallas  -----4                     |
               |--Dallas--           |
6 Portland ----2          |          |
                          |--Lakers--62%
2 LA Lakers ---4          |
               |--Lakers--
7 New Orleans -2      

So we've gone from picking a longshot darkhorse—Denver—to predicting a threepeat for Los Angeles.